Brownlow Discussion

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Geelong
#42
Here is my final breakdown.

Oliver > Steele > Wines >>>> Bont > Walsh > Miller (I/E) > Parish > Mitchell.

I rate Oliver a ~80% chance of winning, with best chances to beat him coming from Wines and Steele. Wines has a bigger range, whereas Steel will be tightly between 28-32.

After Bont's poor last month, I only rate him a 1.5% chance.

To give an understanding on how I come up with these numbers, I run a formula that includes stats and opinions (SC, disposals, goals, w/l/d, best player order on afl.com.au, coaches votes, and this year I've also added zerohanger POTY votes. This is something I've fine tuned over around a decade now.

This gives me a 3-2-1 for each game, and then I apply a randomiser on top of that (to allow for when umpires get it wrong, haha), and run 1000 models of what might happen on the night.

Whilst it is the second hardest year to pick since 2015 (only Fyfe in '19 was harder), I'm pretty bullish on Oliver. His weight of opportunities to poll are just too strong.

Coaches votes winner will be announced tonight (I don't currently have these inputs for final two rounds), but Clarry will win this award with the fourth highest coaches votes tally in its history. Only Danger ('16), Dusty ('17) and Danger again ('17) will have finished with a higher tally, and in each of those years, they polled 35, 33, and 36 votes respectively.

The winner will very likely be at least 30 this year.

Oliver hits this mark 93% of the time
Steele 57%
Wines 46%
Bont 9%
Walsh 5%

If we normalise last years count to be over 22 games, Oliver had an equivalent of 18. And last year was his real consistency breakout, to which he's gone to an absolute another level this year.

I don't see Bont as a threat, in fact he actually has under polled in previous years vs my tallys (i.e. he won the coaches votes in 2019, and came eighth overall.

Wines has a weight of opportunities too, but his top end hasn't been where Oliver's has. Steele has had a great top end, but in the end his team only won 10 games, and his first half of the season was just too slow in a year where the winner will likely need to be in the low 30's.

 
Joined
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Hawthorn
#43
Here is my final breakdown.

Oliver > Steele > Wines >>>> Bont > Walsh > Miller (I/E) > Parish > Mitchell.

I rate Oliver a ~80% chance of winning, with best chances to beat him coming from Wines and Steele. Wines has a bigger range, whereas Steel will be tightly between 28-32.

After Bont's poor last month, I only rate him a 1.5% chance.

To give an understanding on how I come up with these numbers, I run a formula that includes stats and opinions (SC, disposals, goals, w/l/d, best player order on afl.com.au, coaches votes, and this year I've also added zerohanger POTY votes. This is something I've fine tuned over around a decade now.

This gives me a 3-2-1 for each game, and then I apply a randomiser on top of that (to allow for when umpires get it wrong, haha), and run 1000 models of what might happen on the night.

Whilst it is the second hardest year to pick since 2015 (only Fyfe in '19 was harder), I'm pretty bullish on Oliver. His weight of opportunities to poll are just too strong.

Coaches votes winner will be announced tonight (I don't currently have these inputs for final two rounds), but Clarry will win this award with the fourth highest coaches votes tally in its history. Only Danger ('16), Dusty ('17) and Danger again ('17) will have finished with a higher tally, and in each of those years, they polled 35, 33, and 36 votes respectively.

The winner will very likely be at least 30 this year.

Oliver hits this mark 93% of the time
Steele 57%
Wines 46%
Bont 9%
Walsh 5%

If we normalise last years count to be over 22 games, Oliver had an equivalent of 18. And last year was his real consistency breakout, to which he's gone to an absolute another level this year.

I don't see Bont as a threat, in fact he actually has under polled in previous years vs my tallys (i.e. he won the coaches votes in 2019, and came eighth overall.

Wines has a weight of opportunities too, but his top end hasn't been where Oliver's has. Steele has had a great top end, but in the end his team only won 10 games, and his first half of the season was just too slow in a year where the winner will likely need to be in the low 30's.

Thanks for sharing this amazing piece of work. Love it. I'm hoping I can't select him in classic next year! #nobrownlowwinners
 
Joined
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Collingwood
#44
My top 10 looks like:
Clayton Oliver, Ollie Wines, Jack Steele
Sam Walsh
.
.
.
Touk Miller
Darcy Parish
Jackson Macrae
Marcus Bontempelli
Christian Petracca
Jarryd Lyons
With the top 3 all on the same number of votes. Should be an exciting count!
 
Joined
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Essendon
#48
Was having a skim over the TAB handicap market earlier:

Wines 0 votes
Oliver 0.5
Bont 1.5
Steele 2.5
Petracca 4.5
Walsh 5.5
Miller 6.5
Parish 6.5
Mitchell 7.5
Merrett 8.5
Boak 8.5
Macrae 11.5
Lyons 11.5
Parker 11.5

$11 the field except Steele ($9), Mitchell & Macrae ($10) and Wines & Boak ($12).

Haven't done any in depth number crunching yet but at first glance Miller and Oliver don't seem bad value. Steele crunched for a reason.. if you'd asked me a month ago I wouldn't have thought Bont would have any handicap at all!

This has historically been one of my better brownlow markets so always keen to give it a crack..
 
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Geelong
#49
A bit of additional analysis while we wait.

Below graph shows in which rounds fortunes may be won and lost for each player.

Oliver Bont and Steele all have similar strength in top 6 games. Steele sticks his nose out up to best 11 games, but then drops away quickly due to Saints ladder position as much as anything. Bont drops away pretty quickly after his best 9-10 games, limiting his opportunities to poll. By contrast, Wines does not have the same top end certainty, but his consistency will see him in the mix for votes far more often, as does Oliver.

Table below shows the rounds in which best chances to poll are for each of the contenders.

1631231605182.png

1631231627631.png
 
Joined
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North Melb.
#51
I think there are 6 chances to actually win - Bont, Steele, Petracca, Oliver, Wines, Macrae. They all played in teams that got a decent amount of wins, and were among the best two players in their team.

I suspect Oliver won't win, because he hasn't polled well previously. I doubt Macrae will win, because Bont was probably that little bit better and will take some of his votes. It will be hard for Steele to win with only 10 team wins, although he dominated in many of those, which raises his chances. Very hard to split the last three, but without analysing further I'll go with:

1. Bont
2. Wines
3. Petracca
4. Steele
5. Macrae
6. Oliver

Petracca probably had more quiet games than the other two, and I think the Bont might just had a slight edge over Wines in terms of noticability.
My new order after doing round by round voting:
1. Wines 29
2. Oliver 28.5
3. Steele 28
4. Bont 28
5. Petracca 26.5
....
Macrae 22
Boak 21.5

Oliver just had such a good year after looking at the round-by-round. I think he could potentially under-poll based on voting history, but could easily get up to 32 votes if he doesn't under-poll. Wines looks a likely winner for me - virtually no games where he can't poll, and his big games were so big that he's guaranteed to get the three. Bont probably just had a few too many games where he can't poll, but could surprise!
 
Last edited:
Joined
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#52
Here is my final breakdown.

Oliver > Steele > Wines >>>> Bont > Walsh > Miller (I/E) > Parish > Mitchell.

I rate Oliver a ~80% chance of winning, with best chances to beat him coming from Wines and Steele. Wines has a bigger range, whereas Steel will be tightly between 28-32.

After Bont's poor last month, I only rate him a 1.5% chance.

To give an understanding on how I come up with these numbers, I run a formula that includes stats and opinions (SC, disposals, goals, w/l/d, best player order on afl.com.au, coaches votes, and this year I've also added zerohanger POTY votes. This is something I've fine tuned over around a decade now.

This gives me a 3-2-1 for each game, and then I apply a randomiser on top of that (to allow for when umpires get it wrong, haha), and run 1000 models of what might happen on the night.

Whilst it is the second hardest year to pick since 2015 (only Fyfe in '19 was harder), I'm pretty bullish on Oliver. His weight of opportunities to poll are just too strong.

Coaches votes winner will be announced tonight (I don't currently have these inputs for final two rounds), but Clarry will win this award with the fourth highest coaches votes tally in its history. Only Danger ('16), Dusty ('17) and Danger again ('17) will have finished with a higher tally, and in each of those years, they polled 35, 33, and 36 votes respectively.

The winner will very likely be at least 30 this year.

Oliver hits this mark 93% of the time
Steele 57%
Wines 46%
Bont 9%
Walsh 5%

If we normalise last years count to be over 22 games, Oliver had an equivalent of 18. And last year was his real consistency breakout, to which he's gone to an absolute another level this year.

I don't see Bont as a threat, in fact he actually has under polled in previous years vs my tallys (i.e. he won the coaches votes in 2019, and came eighth overall.

Wines has a weight of opportunities too, but his top end hasn't been where Oliver's has. Steele has had a great top end, but in the end his team only won 10 games, and his first half of the season was just too slow in a year where the winner will likely need to be in the low 30's.

Hey mate, love the work
Would you happen to have a breakdown of the lower vote getters for guys you're expecting to poll between 1-8 votes?
All good if it's something you'd prefer to keep tight to your chest
 

KLo30

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#56
Who you got?

Predictions
2021 Brownlow Medallist:
Top three:
Smokey:
Highest-polling defender:
Highest-polling midfielder:
Highest-polling forward:
Highest-polling ruck:
Highest-polling first year player:
Most votes from your club:

*use SC positions
 
Last edited:

Connoisseur

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#58
Who you got?

Predictions
2021 Brownlow Medallist:
Top three:
Smokey:
Highest-polling defender:
Highest-polling midfielder:
Highest-polling forward:
Highest-polling ruck:
Highest-polling first year player:
Most votes from your club:
Draw (2 from the next answer)
M Bontempelli, C Oliver and J Steele
L Parker
A Allir
See previous answers from 1 and 2
T Walker
M Gawn
E Gulden
O Wines
 

KLo30

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#59
Predictions
2021 Brownlow Medallist: Ollie Wines
Top three: Ollie Wines, Clayton Oliver, Jack Steele
Smokey: Jarryd Lyons
Highest-polling defender: Callum Mills
Highest-polling midfielder: Ollie Wines
Highest-polling forward: Jordan De Goey
Highest-polling ruck: Max Gawn
Highest-polling first year player: Errol Gulden
Most votes from your club: Jy Simpkin
 
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#60
Not much thought in these...

Predictions
2021 Brownlow Medallist: Oliver
Top three: Oliver, Bont, Wines
Smokey: Parish
Highest-polling defender: Mills
Highest-polling midfielder: Oliver
Highest-polling forward: Dusty maybe
Highest-polling ruck: Gawn
Highest-polling first year player: Gulden
Most votes from your club: Mitchell
 
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