Competitions Brownlow Predictor Competition 2021

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Sydney
#21
Adelaide - Laird, Walker
Brisbane - Lyons, McCluggage
Carlton - Walsh, Curnow
Collingwood - De Goey, Grundy
Essendon - Parish, Merrett
Fremantle - Mundy, Fyfe
Geelong - Guthrie, Dangerfield
Gold Coast - Miller, Anderson
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Taranto
Hawthorn - Mitchell, O'Meara
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Cunnington, Simpkin
Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak
Richmond - Martin, Riewoldt
St Kilda - Steele, Billings
Sydney - Parker, Mills
West Coast - Kelly, Sheed
Western Bulldogs - Bontempelli, Macrae

2. Brownlow - Oliver
3. First 4 (any order) - Oliver, Wines, Bontempelli, Steele
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Melbourne
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - North Melbourne
6. Leader at Round 11 - Oliver
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 28-30
 
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Collingwood
#22
Adelaide - Laird Walker
Brisbane - Lyons Zorko
Carlton - Walsh McKay
Collingwood - De Goey Crisp
Essendon - Parish Merrett
Fremantle - Mundy Brayshaw
Geelong - Guthrie Danger
Gold Coast - Miller Anderson
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly Hopper
Hawthorn - Mitchell O'Meara
Melbourne - Oliver Petracca
North Melbourne - Cunnington Ziebell
Port Adelaide - Wines Boak
Richmond - Bolton Martin
St Kilda - Steele Crouch
Sydney - Parker Mills
West Coast - Kelly Gaff
Western Bulldogs - Bont Macrae


2. Brownlow - Oliver
3. First 4 (any order) - Oliver Wines Steele Bont
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Melbourne
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - Collingwood
6. Leader at Round 11 - Oliver
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 28-30
 
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Carlton
#23
Adelaide - Laird, Keays
Brisbane - Lyons, Zorko
Carlton - Walsh, Weitering
Collingwood - De Goey, Crisp
Essendon - Parish, Merrett
Fremantle - Mundy, Darcy
Geelong - C. Guthrie, Dangerfield
Gold Coast - Miller, Anderson
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Taranto
Hawthorn - Mitchell, O'Meara
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Cunnington, Hall
Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak
Richmond - Martin, Riewoldt
St Kilda - Steele, Crouch
Sydney - Parker, Mills
West Coast - Naitanui, Gaff
Western Bulldogs - Bont, Macrae

2. Brownlow - Oliver
3. First 4 (any order) - Oliver, Steele, Bontempelli, Miller
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Melbourne
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - Adelaide
6. Leader at Round 11 - Oliver
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 31-33
 
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Fremantle
#24
Adelaide - Laird, Walker
Brisbane - Lyons, McCluggage
Carlton - Walsh, McKay
Collingwood - De Goey, Adams
Essendon - Parish, Merrett
Fremantle - Mundy, Brayshaw
Geelong - Guthrie, Dangerfield
Gold Coast - Miller, Greenwood
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Greene
Hawthorn - Mitchell, Wingard
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Cunnington, Simpkin
Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak
Richmond - Martin, Riewoldt
St Kilda - Steele, Dunstan
Sydney - Parker, Mills
West Coast - Sheed, Kelly
Western Bulldogs - Bontempelli, Macrae

2. Brownlow - J.Steele
3. First 4 (any order) - Steele, Oliver, Bont, Wines
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Melbourne
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - North Melbourne
6. Leader at Round 11 - C.Oliver
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 31-33
 
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Hawthorn
#26
11 entries atm - let’s see if we can get up to 20+ to make it competitive 🙂
11 is still a lot better than 3. :)

I would have bumped the topic sooner, I was planning to enter this right after the final match, just didn't think of it again until last night. Numbers have dropped off across the site since the end of the season as they do every year, but I know there's still plenty lurking around here who haven't entered yet. You probably would have had a bit more luck getting entries a couple of weeks ago when I originally was going to enter though...
 
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West Coast
#27
11 is still a lot better than 3. :)

I would have bumped the topic sooner, I was planning to enter this right after the final match, just didn't think of it again until last night. Numbers have dropped off across the site since the end of the season as they do every year, but I know there's still plenty lurking around here who haven't entered yet. You probably would have had a bit more luck getting entries a couple of weeks ago when I originally was going to enter though...
100% agree - I’ve also found that generally Brownlow chat / discussion doesn’t fully transpire until the end of the regular season finishes. And the Brownlow die hards generally make more noise the 1-2 weeks leading into the count.

We’ll see how we go before Sunday night, still 3 days away!

P.S. thanks for the bump again haha
 
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Collingwood
#28
Adelaide - Laird, Keays
Brisbane - Lyons, Rich
Carlton - Walsh, E. Curnow
Collingwood - De Goey, Crisp
Essendon - Parish, Merrett
Fremantle - Brayshaw, Mundy
Geelong - C. Guthrie, Selwood
Gold Coast - Miller, Swallow
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Hooper
Hawthorn - Mitchell, O'Meara
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Simpkin, Cunnington
Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak
Richmond - Short, Martin
St Kilda - Steele, Crouch
Sydney - Parker, Mills
West Coast - Gaff, Sheed
Western Bulldogs - Macrae, Bontempelli

2. Brownlow - Steele
3. First 4 (any order) - Oliver, Steele, Wines, Miller
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Western Bulldogs
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - Noth Melbourne
6. Leader at Round 11 - Oliver
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 28-30
 
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Melbourne
#29
Adelaide - Laird, Keays
Brisbane - Lyons, Rich
Carlton - Walsh, E. Curnow
Collingwood - De Goey, Crisp
Essendon - Parish, Merrett
Fremantle - Brayshaw, Mundy
Geelong - C. Guthrie, Selwood
Gold Coast - Miller, Swallow
Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Hooper
Hawthorn - Mitchell, O'Meara
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Simpkin, Cunnington
Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak
Richmond - Short, Martin
St Kilda - Steele, Crouch
Sydney - Parker, Mills
West Coast - Gaff, Sheed
Western Bulldogs - Macrae, Bontempelli

2. Brownlow - Steele
3. First 4 (any order) - Oliver, Steele, Oliver, Miller
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Western Bulldogs
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - Noth Melbourne
6. Leader at Round 11 - Western Bulldogs
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 28-30
Nice picks @Bermi.

I think number 6 above should be a player not team?
 
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Sydney
#30
As ever, a lot of the value was snaffled very early on the 3 vote games (I've got positions on 59 games/selections), but there's still some interesting prices on offer. Some of the interesting value I like:

Rd 2 Jordan de Goey vs Carlton at $6.50
Rd 3 Luke Parker vs Richmond at $6.00
Rd 5 Sam Menegola vs North Melbourne at $5.00
 
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West Coast
#31
Got on

Straight 4
Wines/Oliver/Bont/Steele - @$41 - now $13
Oliver/Wines/Bont/Steele - @$51 - now $18
Wines/Oliver/Steele/Bont - @$56 - now $26
Oliver/Wines/Steele/Bont - @$81 - now $41



Fingers crossed one of these combos hit 🤞🏻
 
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Collingwood
#34
Haven't done St Kilda games but keen to contribute, so far:

1. Oliver - 33
2. Bontempelli - 30
3. Wines - 30
4. Petracca - 30
5. Walsh - 28

Expecting Steele to be in the 28 - 30 range too. Only 6 players can win it.

Oliver - High floor & high ceiling
Bont - High floor & low ceiling
Wines - Mid floor & high ceiling
Petracca - Mid floor & mid ceiling
Walsh - Mid floor & mid ceiling
Steele - High floor & mid ceiling

30 and below > low ceiling
31 - 32 > mid ceiling
32 + > high ceiling


22- 24 > low floor
25 - 27 > mid floor
28 and above > high floor
 
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North Melb.
#35
Adelaide - Laird, Tex
Brisbane - Lyons, McCluggage
Carlton - Walsh, McKay
Collingwood - De Goey, Adams
Essendon - Parish, Merrett
Fremantle - Mundy, Brayshaw
Geelong - Guthrie, Danger
Gold Coast - Miller, Anderson
Greater Western Sydney - J Kelly, Taranto
Hawthorn - Titch, O'Meara
Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca
North Melbourne - Cunnington, Simpkin
Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak
Richmond - Dusty, Riewoldt
St Kilda - Steele, Crouch
Sydney - Parker, Mills
West Coast - T Kelly, Sheed
Western Bulldogs - Bont, Macrae

2. Brownlow - Wines
3. First 4 (any order) - Wines, Oliver, Steele, Bont
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Melbourne
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - North Melbourne
6. Leader at Round 11 - Oliver
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 28-30
 
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Sydney
#36
Walsh top 4

It's happening

Oliver, Steele, Walsh, Wines for me
I've got him 2nd on my outright and 4th on my weighted count so tend to agree. Very hard to know how he'll poll though but did rack up 6 votes over the last 4 games last year in a similar role.


Haven't done St Kilda games but keen to contribute, so far:

1. Oliver - 33
2. Bontempelli - 30
3. Wines - 30
4. Petracca - 30
5. Walsh - 28

Expecting Steele to be in the 28 - 30 range too. Only 6 players can win it.

Oliver - High floor & high ceiling
Bont - High floor & low ceiling
Wines - Mid floor & high ceiling
Petracca - Mid floor & mid ceiling
Walsh - Mid floor & mid ceiling
Steele - High floor & mid ceiling

30 and below > low ceiling
31 - 32 > mid ceiling
32 + > high ceiling


22- 24 > low floor
25 - 27 > mid floor
28 and above > high floor
Macrae my sneaky outsider, probably needs Oliver/Petracca to lose a few votes to others (not each other) to bring it down but has the direct impact that a lot of his best games were also games where he takes votes from Bont if he polls well, has a good but not great polling history but he was on another level this year to his past couple and the team was more successful. Titch my other outsider but needs a lower count, really hard to judge how he polls as he was so prolific, especially back half of the season but a lot of losses where he's needing to take the 3 votes despite the loss. Touk could do similar but needs an even lower count, can't see either of Touk/Titch in the 30s so probably needs to be 27ish.
 
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Collingwood
#37
I've got him 2nd on my outright and 4th on my weighted count so tend to agree. Very hard to know how he'll poll though but did rack up 6 votes over the last 4 games last year in a similar role.




Macrae my sneaky outsider, probably needs Oliver/Petracca to lose a few votes to others (not each other) to bring it down but has the direct impact that a lot of his best games were also games where he takes votes from Bont if he polls well, has a good but not great polling history but he was on another level this year to his past couple and the team was more successful. Titch my other outsider but needs a lower count, really hard to judge how he polls as he was so prolific, especially back half of the season but a lot of losses where he's needing to take the 3 votes despite the loss. Touk could do similar but needs an even lower count, can't see either of Touk/Titch in the 30s so probably needs to be 27ish.
The biggest difference I've seen and what decides Walsh's chances are round 6 and round 16.

Round 6 - Had Carlton won, he probably would've been a 50-50 chance for the 3 votes with Mckay. But they lost, so now he's probably only eligible for 1-2 votes. I have him at 1 vote here given Mckay kicked 6 goals and doubled the goal tally compared to the next best. But I've seen people give Walsh the 3 votes here, which results in Walsh polling 30+ for the season. Realistically speaking I can see any of 1, 2, 3 votes happening, but thinking Mccluggage - 3, Mckay - 2, Walsh - 1 at this stage.

Round 16 - Thought all of Darcy, Brayshaw, and even Ryan had Walsh beat in terms of overall performance. Many people seem to have given him the 3 votes based on his final quarter goal, which albeit was flashy, ultimately wasn't even the winning goal, so it really shouldn't be enough to make him MVP after 3 poor quarters. However, acknowledging umpires might recognize this goal and boost his ranking accordingly, I have him given him 2 votes in this game, although VERY unwillingly. Once again realistically I can see him receiving any of 1, 2, 3 votes.

So across these 2 games, worst case scenario he gets 2 (which I actually think is the most likely situation), best case scenario he gets 6. I have him at 3, with a final polling of 28, so in theory him getting 31 is possible, but he would really need everything to go his way.
 
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Sydney
#38
The biggest difference I've seen and what decides Walsh's chances are round 6 and round 16.

Round 6 - Had Carlton won, he probably would've been a 50-50 chance for the 3 votes with Mckay. But they lost, so now he's probably only eligible for 1-2 votes. I have him at 1 vote here given Mckay kicked 6 goals and doubled the goal tally compared to the next best. But I've seen people give Walsh the 3 votes here, which results in Walsh polling 30+ for the season. Realistically speaking I can see any of 1, 2, 3 votes happening, but thinking Mccluggage - 3, Mckay - 2, Walsh - 1 at this stage.

Round 16 - Thought all of Darcy, Brayshaw, and even Ryan had Walsh beat in terms of overall performance. Many people seem to have given him the 3 votes based on his final quarter goal, which albeit was flashy, ultimately wasn't even the winning goal, so it really shouldn't be enough to make him MVP after 3 poor quarters. However, acknowledging umpires might recognize this goal and boost his ranking accordingly, I have him given him 2 votes in this game, although VERY unwillingly. Once again realistically I can see him receiving any of 1, 2, 3 votes.

So across these 2 games, worst case scenario he gets 2 (which I actually think is the most likely situation), best case scenario he gets 6. I have him at 3, with a final polling of 28, so in theory him getting 31 is possible, but he would really need everything to go his way.
I have Walsh on 31 raw and 26.5 weighted in my count (I generally find the raw predicts the winner totals more accurately but weighted predicts order more accurately)

I had Clug, Zorko and Walsh as the 3/2/1 in the round 6 game, gave Clug a 2.5 (this is my likely 3 votes level) and only gave Zorko and Walsh a 1 (good chance to poll), had Curnow, Mckay at .75 and Lyons a .5 in this one. Basically my weighted says to me that he's a good shot at 2 or 1 but quite unlikely to get 3. Reviewing though, McKay definitely could poll well here, historically 6 goals is a very strong indicator of 2+ votes, so hard with him given he basically kicked 4 of those 6 from the goal square and when the margin was outside 20 points, it was about as bad a 6 goal game as you could have :LOL: but he could easily get the 3 because umpires definitely tend to see 6 goals and give 3 votes. Not dissimilar to the Fritsch game at the end of the season though McKay's was better than that as far as impact.

Round 16 I had him as 3/2.5 with Brayshaw at 2/1.5 (expect to poll), I gave Dow the 1 vote but give it's all .5 for that 3rd vote with Mundy, Darcy, Newman, Kennedy and Silvagni my other names I think you could say it's a complete crapshoot for that vote!

It's always interesting to see how differently people can see games as well and that's all us watching from the same coverage nevermind the different angles the umpires view from.
 
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Collingwood
#39
I have Walsh on 31 raw and 26.5 weighted in my count (I generally find the raw predicts the winner totals more accurately but weighted predicts order more accurately)

I had Clug, Zorko and Walsh as the 3/2/1 in the round 6 game, gave Clug a 2.5 (this is my likely 3 votes level) and only gave Zorko and Walsh a 1 (good chance to poll), had Curnow, Mckay at .75 and Lyons a .5 in this one. Basically my weighted says to me that he's a good shot at 2 or 1 but quite unlikely to get 3. Reviewing though, McKay definitely could poll well here, historically 6 goals is a very strong indicator of 2+ votes, so hard with him given he basically kicked 4 of those 6 from the goal square and when the margin was outside 20 points, it was about as bad a 6 goal game as you could have :LOL: but he could easily get the 3 because umpires definitely tend to see 6 goals and give 3 votes. Not dissimilar to the Fritsch game at the end of the season though McKay's was better than that as far as impact.

Round 16 I had him as 3/2.5 with Brayshaw at 2/1.5 (expect to poll), I gave Dow the 1 vote but give it's all .5 for that 3rd vote with Mundy, Darcy, Newman, Kennedy and Silvagni my other names I think you could say it's a complete crapshoot for that vote!

It's always interesting to see how differently people can see games as well and that's all us watching from the same coverage nevermind the different angles the umpires view from.
Exactly, another player of contention is Sean Darcy - 20 disposals - 13 contested - 6 clearances - 40 hitouts - 1 goal - 193 SUPERCOACH POINTS

I will have to check, but I don't believe a ruck scoring 170+ supercoach points has received 1 brownlow vote or less in a relatively close game.

Darcy SMASHED the 170 supercoach point mark, and I currently have him on 1 vote, which recent history suggests is highly unlikely. I think all of Brayshaw, Darcy and Walsh will be in the mix for the 3. But like you said, this is a nightmare game to poll, and it's impossible to know how valuable the umpires considered Walsh's important, but not match winning last quarter goal.
 
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Collingwood
#40
My updated picks:
Adelaide - Laird, Keays

Brisbane - Lyons, McCluggage

Carlton - Walsh, E.Curnow

Collingwood - De Goey, Adams

Essendon - Parish, Merrett

Fremantle - Brayshaw, Mundy

Geelong - C. Guthrie, Hawkins

Gold Coast - Miller, Anderson

Greater Western Sydney - Kelly, Greene

Hawthorn - Mitchell, O'Meara

Melbourne - Oliver, Petracca

North Melbourne - Simpkin, Cunnington

Port Adelaide - Wines, Boak

Richmond - Bolton, Martin

St Kilda - Steele, Dunstan

Sydney - Parker, Mills

West Coast - Gaff, Natunui

Western Bulldogs - Macrae, Bontempelli

2. Brownlow - Oliver
3. First 4 (any order) - Wines, Oliver, Steele, Bont
4. Highest Vote Polling Team - Western Bulldogs
5. Lowest Vote Polling Team - North Melbourne
6. Leader at Round 11 - Bontempelli
7. Brownlow Winner vote range: 28-30
 
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