Chasing last years points.....

I_am_aweSAM

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Essendon
#61
I've cooled on starting with Danger this year. While i'm on record as stating that i think he's the next coming of Ablett (which i stand by), he's not fitting my strategy of consistency in my starting uber-premium mids and i therefore have him pegged as an upgrade target.

My thinking is that with the high deviation in his scoring last year, 31 points, compared to JPKs 24 and Selwood's 20, you're more likely for him to have a bad game and therefore drop his pricing.

It becomes even more compelling when you look at relative standard deviation, with Danger coming in at 27% deviation from his average compared to JPK's 20% and Selwood's 16%.

Looking at the fixture, 2 teams that last year played a hard lock down tag were Freo and St Kilda.

Adelaide's playing St.Kilda in round 8 and Freo in rnd 10. If he reduces his output in these 2 games, he'll be ripe for the picking in rnd 14, just after his bye.

Just my 2 cents and a bit of a different approach i'm taking to team selection this year.
Is that necessarily a bad thing, I haven't looked at his numbers so completely hypothesizing, but, is his standard deviation because of the occasional bad score or the occasional massive score? Probably a question you need to look into if you're basing your selection wholly on one criterion like that.
 

WandP

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#62
Combination of both. 12 scores under 100 inc finals? It's not a case of scoring however, but rather what that will do to his price. With the high deviation, you're more likely to pick him up on the cheap, compared to say a Selwood, with a similar output for the year.
 

Jimace The Grimace

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#63
Combination of both. 12 scores under 100 inc finals? It's not a case of scoring however, but rather what that will do to his price. With the high deviation, you're more likely to pick him up on the cheap, compared to say a Selwood, with a similar output for the year.
Most of those scores were just below 100 and ocurred in the first month or two of the season - I don't think he'll start slowly.
 

Nk29

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#64
Is that necessarily a bad thing, I haven't looked at his numbers so completely hypothesizing, but, is his standard deviation because of the occasional bad score or the occasional massive score? Probably a question you need to look into if you're basing your selection wholly on one criterion like that.
Both: 9 sub 100 scores and 8 130+ scores for Danger last year.
 

Jordyfoz

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St Kilda
#65
Most of those sub 100 scores came in the first half of the season, he gradually improved as the year went on and smashed the last half of the year. His lowest score for the regular season was 86, I can live with that.

Dangers last 8 games: 110,138,133,127,187,134,106,169. Av= 138.
 

Jimace The Grimace

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#66
Most of those sub 100 scores came in the first half of the season, he gradually improved as the year went on and smashed the last half of the year. His lowest score for the regular season was 86, I can live with that.

Dangers last 8 games: 110,138,133,127,187,134,106,169. Av= 138.
That's Ablett like!
 
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Carlton
#67
I've cooled on starting with Danger this year. While i'm on record as stating that i think he's the next coming of Ablett (which i stand by), he's not fitting my strategy of consistency in my starting uber-premium mids and i therefore have him pegged as an upgrade target.

My thinking is that with the high deviation in his scoring last year, 31 points, compared to JPKs 24 and Selwood's 20, you're more likely for him to have a bad game and therefore drop his pricing.

It becomes even more compelling when you look at relative standard deviation, with Danger coming in at 27% deviation from his average compared to JPK's 20% and Selwood's 16%.

Looking at the fixture, 2 teams that last year played a hard lock down tag were Freo and St Kilda.

Adelaide's playing St.Kilda in round 8 and Freo in rnd 10. If he reduces his output in these 2 games, he'll be ripe for the picking in rnd 14, just after his bye.

Just my 2 cents and a bit of a different approach i'm taking to team selection this year.
Dangerfield scored 187 and 145 against Freo in the H&A season last year.
 
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Richmond
#70
Wasn't Thompson tagged in the first game. Dangerfield had a lite tag in the second thats it.
 
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Carlton
#71
Thompson was tagged by Crowley in both from memory. Dangerfield smashed tags by Raines and Scott Selwood last season so it's not like he is destroyed by them, still will probably be given more attention this season no doubt.
 
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Richmond
#72
Thompson was tagged by Crowley in both from memory. Dangerfield smashed tags by Raines and Scott Selwood last season so it's not like he is destroyed by them, still will probably be given more attention this season no doubt.
Yeah he will beat them, but as you said will get alot more attention this year. In saying that i see him ave the same as last year.
 

WandP

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#73
Thompson was tagged by Crowley in both from memory. Dangerfield smashed tags by Raines and Scott Selwood last season so it's not like he is destroyed by them, still will probably be given more attention this season no doubt.
Rnd 10 Scott Thompson 58, Danger 145
Rnd 20 Scott Thompson 94, Danger 187
Semi Scott Thompson 111, Danger 82

It's pretty clear that over the course of the year vs Freo, the attention shifted onto Danger. I'm not saying that he's particularly susceptible to a hard tag because Crowley's one of the best in the business at it, i'm just saying that there is a higher chance that he will drop in value right around the byes, perfectly timed for an upgrade. Can't start 'em all!
 
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