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- 8 Mar 2012
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- Essendon
I've cooled on starting with Danger this year. While i'm on record as stating that i think he's the next coming of Ablett (which i stand by), he's not fitting my strategy of consistency in my starting uber-premium mids and i therefore have him pegged as an upgrade target.
My thinking is that with the high deviation in his scoring last year, 31 points, compared to JPKs 24 and Selwood's 20, you're more likely for him to have a bad game and therefore drop his pricing.
It becomes even more compelling when you look at relative standard deviation, with Danger coming in at 27% deviation from his average compared to JPK's 20% and Selwood's 16%.
Looking at the fixture, 2 teams that last year played a hard lock down tag were Freo and St Kilda.
Adelaide's playing St.Kilda in round 8 and Freo in rnd 10. If he reduces his output in these 2 games, he'll be ripe for the picking in rnd 14, just after his bye.
Just my 2 cents and a bit of a different approach i'm taking to team selection this year.
My thinking is that with the high deviation in his scoring last year, 31 points, compared to JPKs 24 and Selwood's 20, you're more likely for him to have a bad game and therefore drop his pricing.
It becomes even more compelling when you look at relative standard deviation, with Danger coming in at 27% deviation from his average compared to JPK's 20% and Selwood's 16%.
Looking at the fixture, 2 teams that last year played a hard lock down tag were Freo and St Kilda.
Adelaide's playing St.Kilda in round 8 and Freo in rnd 10. If he reduces his output in these 2 games, he'll be ripe for the picking in rnd 14, just after his bye.
Just my 2 cents and a bit of a different approach i'm taking to team selection this year.