Discussion Golf Discussion
- Thread starter Jandrews
- Start date
For those that like golf, stats and maybe a bet as well
Trends of past winners:
- Seven of the last 10 Open winners were 36 or over and three were in their 40s Open form
- Nine of last 10 Open winners had registered a top 6 in the event previously
- Six of last 10 Open winners had registered a top 3 in the event previously
Nationality
- Four of last 10 Open winners were American
- Three of last 10 Open winners were Irish/Northern Irish
- Two of last 10 Open winners were South African
- One of last 10 Open winners was from Continental Europe
Age
- Three of last 10 Open winners were in their 30s
- Four of last 10 Open winners were in their 40s
- Three of last 10 Open winners were in their 20s
- Seven of last 10 Open winners were 35 or over
World ranking at the time
- Eight of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 50
- Seven of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 30
- Four of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 10
Current form
- Seven of last 10 Open winners (including six of the last seven) had posted a top 20 in one of their previous two starts
- Seven of last 10 Open winners had won earlier that season Played week before
- Seven of last 10 Open winners had teed it up the week before. Make that eight if counting Harrington playing in, and winning, the Irish PGA Championship.
Carnoustie trends
Starting in 1931, Carnoustie has staged seven Opens. There have been three American winners (Tommy Armour, Ben Hogan, Tom Watson), a South African (Gary Player), an Englishman (Sir Henry Cotton), a Scotsman (Paul Lawrie) and an Irishman (Padraig Harrington). Six of those seven champions have won at least three majors! Five of the seven had all posted a top 10 in the Open (Lawrie included) before. With Carnoustie winners having such a pedigree along with the fact that five of the last six Open winners (Spieth, Z Johnson, McIlroy, Mickelson and Els) had already won a major
What we're looking for?
Taking the strongest trends, the ideal fit for an Open champion for Carnoustie is as follows:
- Has had a previous top 6 in an Open
- Is 35 or over
- In world's top 30
- Has a top 20 in one of their previous two starts
- Played the week before (five of last seven Open winners had played in the Scottish Open on a links course)
- Has won this season
- Is a major winner
- Is not the defending champion (10 of last 10 have failed to win the following year)
Just one name comes through all those checks: Justin Rose
The 37-year-old Englishman, who sits 3rd in the world rankings, was T4 as an amateur at Royal Birkdale in 1998, T6 at St Andrews in 2015 and T12 at Carnoustie in 2007. He won the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial at the end of May, was T10 at the U.S. Open two starts ago and honed his links skill by playing in the Scottish Open at Gullane. That's enough to make him the only man to tick every box but, as a bonus, six of the last 10 Open winners had bagged a top 10 in one of the first two majors of that season. Rose was T10 at Shinnecock.
Trends of past winners:
- Seven of the last 10 Open winners were 36 or over and three were in their 40s Open form
- Nine of last 10 Open winners had registered a top 6 in the event previously
- Six of last 10 Open winners had registered a top 3 in the event previously
Nationality
- Four of last 10 Open winners were American
- Three of last 10 Open winners were Irish/Northern Irish
- Two of last 10 Open winners were South African
- One of last 10 Open winners was from Continental Europe
Age
- Three of last 10 Open winners were in their 30s
- Four of last 10 Open winners were in their 40s
- Three of last 10 Open winners were in their 20s
- Seven of last 10 Open winners were 35 or over
World ranking at the time
- Eight of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 50
- Seven of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 30
- Four of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 10
Current form
- Seven of last 10 Open winners (including six of the last seven) had posted a top 20 in one of their previous two starts
- Seven of last 10 Open winners had won earlier that season Played week before
- Seven of last 10 Open winners had teed it up the week before. Make that eight if counting Harrington playing in, and winning, the Irish PGA Championship.
Carnoustie trends
Starting in 1931, Carnoustie has staged seven Opens. There have been three American winners (Tommy Armour, Ben Hogan, Tom Watson), a South African (Gary Player), an Englishman (Sir Henry Cotton), a Scotsman (Paul Lawrie) and an Irishman (Padraig Harrington). Six of those seven champions have won at least three majors! Five of the seven had all posted a top 10 in the Open (Lawrie included) before. With Carnoustie winners having such a pedigree along with the fact that five of the last six Open winners (Spieth, Z Johnson, McIlroy, Mickelson and Els) had already won a major
What we're looking for?
Taking the strongest trends, the ideal fit for an Open champion for Carnoustie is as follows:
- Has had a previous top 6 in an Open
- Is 35 or over
- In world's top 30
- Has a top 20 in one of their previous two starts
- Played the week before (five of last seven Open winners had played in the Scottish Open on a links course)
- Has won this season
- Is a major winner
- Is not the defending champion (10 of last 10 have failed to win the following year)
Just one name comes through all those checks: Justin Rose
The 37-year-old Englishman, who sits 3rd in the world rankings, was T4 as an amateur at Royal Birkdale in 1998, T6 at St Andrews in 2015 and T12 at Carnoustie in 2007. He won the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial at the end of May, was T10 at the U.S. Open two starts ago and honed his links skill by playing in the Scottish Open at Gullane. That's enough to make him the only man to tick every box but, as a bonus, six of the last 10 Open winners had bagged a top 10 in one of the first two majors of that season. Rose was T10 at Shinnecock.
Rose birdied the last to get himself to +1
2 birdies, 1 bogey, 1 double bogey for the day.
He only hit 53% of Fairways (8 out of 15), and 56% of Greens in regulation (10 out of 18), so there is plenty of room for improvement.
Marc Leishman got himself to 4 under after 8 holes, but then went bogey, double, birdie to be -2 after 11.
2 birdies, 1 bogey, 1 double bogey for the day.
He only hit 53% of Fairways (8 out of 15), and 56% of Greens in regulation (10 out of 18), so there is plenty of room for improvement.
Marc Leishman got himself to 4 under after 8 holes, but then went bogey, double, birdie to be -2 after 11.
For those of you interested in the PGA tour and fancy a bit of fun
Have a look at this - 1st round commences today
http://golftipcomp.com.au/
Have a look at this - 1st round commences today
http://golftipcomp.com.au/