Golf Discussion

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
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AFL Club
Essendon
#3
Crazy stuff. Not sure why it’s sent the mobile site out of whack but will add it to the To Do list.
 

siwel

Rising Star Winner
Joined
20 Jan 2013
Messages
349
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63
AFL Club
Brisbane
#5
For those that like golf, stats and maybe a bet as well
Trends of past winners:
- Seven of the last 10 Open winners were 36 or over and three were in their 40s Open form
- Nine of last 10 Open winners had registered a top 6 in the event previously
- Six of last 10 Open winners had registered a top 3 in the event previously

Nationality
- Four of last 10 Open winners were American
- Three of last 10 Open winners were Irish/Northern Irish
- Two of last 10 Open winners were South African
- One of last 10 Open winners was from Continental Europe

Age
- Three of last 10 Open winners were in their 30s
- Four of last 10 Open winners were in their 40s
- Three of last 10 Open winners were in their 20s
- Seven of last 10 Open winners were 35 or over

World ranking at the time
- Eight of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 50
- Seven of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 30
- Four of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 10

Current form
- Seven of last 10 Open winners (including six of the last seven) had posted a top 20 in one of their previous two starts
- Seven of last 10 Open winners had won earlier that season Played week before
- Seven of last 10 Open winners had teed it up the week before. Make that eight if counting Harrington playing in, and winning, the Irish PGA Championship.

Carnoustie trends
Starting in 1931, Carnoustie has staged seven Opens. There have been three American winners (Tommy Armour, Ben Hogan, Tom Watson), a South African (Gary Player), an Englishman (Sir Henry Cotton), a Scotsman (Paul Lawrie) and an Irishman (Padraig Harrington). Six of those seven champions have won at least three majors! Five of the seven had all posted a top 10 in the Open (Lawrie included) before. With Carnoustie winners having such a pedigree along with the fact that five of the last six Open winners (Spieth, Z Johnson, McIlroy, Mickelson and Els) had already won a major

What we're looking for?
Taking the strongest trends, the ideal fit for an Open champion for Carnoustie is as follows:
- Has had a previous top 6 in an Open
- Is 35 or over
- In world's top 30
- Has a top 20 in one of their previous two starts
- Played the week before (five of last seven Open winners had played in the Scottish Open on a links course)
- Has won this season
- Is a major winner
- Is not the defending champion (10 of last 10 have failed to win the following year)

Just one name comes through all those checks: Justin Rose
The 37-year-old Englishman, who sits 3rd in the world rankings, was T4 as an amateur at Royal Birkdale in 1998, T6 at St Andrews in 2015 and T12 at Carnoustie in 2007. He won the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial at the end of May, was T10 at the U.S. Open two starts ago and honed his links skill by playing in the Scottish Open at Gullane. That's enough to make him the only man to tick every box but, as a bonus, six of the last 10 Open winners had bagged a top 10 in one of the first two majors of that season. Rose was T10 at Shinnecock.
 

toxic

Rising Star Winner
Joined
6 Jun 2013
Messages
482
Likes
131
#7
For those that like golf, stats and maybe a bet as well
Trends of past winners:
- Seven of the last 10 Open winners were 36 or over and three were in their 40s Open form
- Nine of last 10 Open winners had registered a top 6 in the event previously
- Six of last 10 Open winners had registered a top 3 in the event previously

Nationality
- Four of last 10 Open winners were American
- Three of last 10 Open winners were Irish/Northern Irish
- Two of last 10 Open winners were South African
- One of last 10 Open winners was from Continental Europe

Age
- Three of last 10 Open winners were in their 30s
- Four of last 10 Open winners were in their 40s
- Three of last 10 Open winners were in their 20s
- Seven of last 10 Open winners were 35 or over

World ranking at the time
- Eight of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 50
- Seven of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 30
- Four of last 10 Open winners were in the world's top 10

Current form
- Seven of last 10 Open winners (including six of the last seven) had posted a top 20 in one of their previous two starts
- Seven of last 10 Open winners had won earlier that season Played week before
- Seven of last 10 Open winners had teed it up the week before. Make that eight if counting Harrington playing in, and winning, the Irish PGA Championship.

Carnoustie trends
Starting in 1931, Carnoustie has staged seven Opens. There have been three American winners (Tommy Armour, Ben Hogan, Tom Watson), a South African (Gary Player), an Englishman (Sir Henry Cotton), a Scotsman (Paul Lawrie) and an Irishman (Padraig Harrington). Six of those seven champions have won at least three majors! Five of the seven had all posted a top 10 in the Open (Lawrie included) before. With Carnoustie winners having such a pedigree along with the fact that five of the last six Open winners (Spieth, Z Johnson, McIlroy, Mickelson and Els) had already won a major

What we're looking for?
Taking the strongest trends, the ideal fit for an Open champion for Carnoustie is as follows:
- Has had a previous top 6 in an Open
- Is 35 or over
- In world's top 30
- Has a top 20 in one of their previous two starts
- Played the week before (five of last seven Open winners had played in the Scottish Open on a links course)
- Has won this season
- Is a major winner
- Is not the defending champion (10 of last 10 have failed to win the following year)

Just one name comes through all those checks: Justin Rose
The 37-year-old Englishman, who sits 3rd in the world rankings, was T4 as an amateur at Royal Birkdale in 1998, T6 at St Andrews in 2015 and T12 at Carnoustie in 2007. He won the Fort Worth Invitational at Colonial at the end of May, was T10 at the U.S. Open two starts ago and honed his links skill by playing in the Scottish Open at Gullane. That's enough to make him the only man to tick every box but, as a bonus, six of the last 10 Open winners had bagged a top 10 in one of the first two majors of that season. Rose was T10 at Shinnecock.
I'm in for,
Rickie Fowler and Tyrell Hatton
 

siwel

Rising Star Winner
Joined
20 Jan 2013
Messages
349
Likes
63
AFL Club
Brisbane
#8
I'm in for,
Rickie Fowler and Tyrell Hatton
I do like Rickie, I think the Open is the Major that best suits him and he has really solid results on links courses. He is one I would back indefinitely at the Open
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,503
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1,316
AFL Club
Melbourne
#9
Rose birdied the last to get himself to +1
2 birdies, 1 bogey, 1 double bogey for the day.
He only hit 53% of Fairways (8 out of 15), and 56% of Greens in regulation (10 out of 18), so there is plenty of room for improvement.

Marc Leishman got himself to 4 under after 8 holes, but then went bogey, double, birdie to be -2 after 11.
 
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