High Rankings vs. Low Rankings - What did you do differently?

GrainFedBeef

400 Games Club
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West Coast
#61
Last year I picked Rich, Lonergan, Crouch x2 and Libba.

I wake up every morning, take a deep breath, stare into the mirror, and I say

I will not pick Steele
I will not pick JOM
I will not pick Swallow
I will not pick Steele
I will not pick Nankervis maybe
I will not pick Tuohy
I will not pick Steele
I will not pick Roughead
I will not pick Steele

This year I am going to pick the safest team ever, in hope I can keep my trades and be aggressive with every rookie that presents.
How is this going?
 

stephen

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St Kilda
#63
Thought I'd go down to the cellar and find this thread for a bump as I remembered it holding a heap of good insights. It does!

For my own thoughts the main thing I remember from my worst season is that I missed Witts at R2 and didn't correct, and then was constantly behind the 8-ball for points and then money, which dominoed into a whole host of other bad decisions. When things were going badly I tried to find different ways to climb back rather than closing off the reasons that I was flailing in the first place, so it only got worse.

In the years I've gone well I've got my rucks right (last year by keeping my options open with Lycett and then jumping early onto Grundy) and got structure right early so that the right rookies were on field. This involved plenty of early trades but I think that's a necessary evil. I see getting that structure right as the main skill in the early rounds and the key to a good start. Then you just need a heap of luck. For instance I traded in Lloyd just before he went 130, 173, 118 and went on to average >120 in my team. I had simply got him because I thought he was a reliable and good value ~95 ave who suited my bye structure. You just need some of that crazy upside out of nowhere at some point, I think. On the flip side of that Macrae was killing all us non-owners and getting out of reach so those who had him had their must-have locked in and were racing away, and then he got injured and the playing field was levelled again.

In terms of the overall thrust of the thread (why some players get good rankings one year and then terrible the next) I think it comes down to a riskier style of play, either in terms of being willing to pick a couple of midpricers who succeed or going against the grain on trades in order to maximise the effect if the selection comes off.
 

Bomber18

Dual Brownlow Medalist
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Essendon
#64
Thought I'd go down to the cellar and find this thread for a bump as I remembered it holding a heap of good insights. It does!

For my own thoughts the main thing I remember from my worst season is that I missed Witts at R2 and didn't correct, and then was constantly behind the 8-ball for points and then money, which dominoed into a whole host of other bad decisions. When things were going badly I tried to find different ways to climb back rather than closing off the reasons that I was flailing in the first place, so it only got worse.

In the years I've gone well I've got my rucks right (last year by keeping my options open with Lycett and then jumping early onto Grundy) and got structure right early so that the right rookies were on field. This involved plenty of early trades but I think that's a necessary evil. I see getting that structure right as the main skill in the early rounds and the key to a good start. Then you just need a heap of luck. For instance I traded in Lloyd just before he went 130, 173, 118 and went on to average >120 in my team. I had simply got him because I thought he was a reliable and good value ~95 ave who suited my bye structure. You just need some of that crazy upside out of nowhere at some point, I think. On the flip side of that Macrae was killing all us non-owners and getting out of reach so those who had him had their must-have locked in and were racing away, and then he got injured and the playing field was levelled again.

In terms of the overall thrust of the thread (why some players get good rankings one year and then terrible the next) I think it comes down to a riskier style of play, either in terms of being willing to pick a couple of midpricers who succeed or going against the grain on trades in order to maximise the effect if the selection comes off.
Good bump! Your 2017 season reminds me of my shameful 2015 season of around 20k (so bad that it's left off my signature :p). It was the year when Shaw and Goldy went huge and I didn't own them at any point of the year. Lloyd and Grundy were those guys in 2018, and I thankfully finished up with both!

For me, 2018 was my best year so far (albeit not quite as good as stephen's best years!). The good start definitely helped. I started at around 1.4k and the worst rank I had all year was 2.3k (I don't think I've ever had a season like that with such a low deviation). I think it mainly boiled down to there being more obvious mid pricer selections at the start of the year. I'm not that big of a risk taker and usually miss the correct rookies so having pretty obvious value selections such as Coniglio, Devon Smith, Cripps, and Sicily at the start of the year really helped. It kept me away from Roughead, Sheridan, Lumumba types which have hurt my season in past years. Rookies were pretty obvious too Finlayson, Murray, Doedee, Holman etc. I didn't need a rookie correction as a result.

I agree with your last point. Although in this thread, there is a lot of talk about failed midpricers and rules about taking a more GnR approach, I think taking a risk on a few midpricers can set up your season (for the best or for the worst). Conversely, last year I think the coaches who did poorly might've been the ones who tried to go against the grain a bit and avoided popular mid pricers like Devon Smith, Sicily and Coniglio. It didn't pay off but it easily could have. I think I've learnt to not really bind myself by certain rules and play each year on its merits. It could be a more GnR year or it could also be a more mid pricer friendly year. I hate trying to pick Parfitt, Gresham types but I'm definitely open to it.
 

Grant

Dual Best & Fairest
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Carlton
#65
I think getting in the top 1000 in SC is a genuine achievement given how serious and intelligent the competition is. I'll optimistically give myself a 25% chance of a top 1k finish in 2019 despite some fairly ordinary recent years.

2018: 4,202
2017: 4,958
2016: 12,347
2015: 345
2015: 2,405
 

Beijing_Sting

Michael Tuck Club
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Brisbane
#66
220th baby!

First full year (after a long 2 year slog) without having full time work and study combined on my back.

Did not have Lloyd or Grundy for the entire year.

I did get lucky though. I was forced into a mid priced Chad who, unbelievably, went on a run that must have been close to 100 ave...
From memory, which is always sketchy at best, I think THCLT was highly placed at around that time too. I actually remember thinking he chose better players, but... Weird thing was they didn't perform.

Thanks, to the Chad for saving my season. I think I'll go check the records from last season now to renew my fire for the year of the pig
 

Beijing_Sting

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#67
220th baby!

First full year (after a long 2 year slog) without having full time work and study combined on my back.

Did not have Lloyd or Grundy for the entire year.

I did get lucky though. I was forced into a mid priced Chad who, unbelievably, went on a run that must have been close to 100 ave...
From memory, which is always sketchy at best, I think THCLT was highly placed at around that time too. I actually remember thinking he chose better players, but... Weird thing was they didn't perform.

Thanks, to the Chad for saving my season. I think I'll go check the records from last season now to renew my fire for the year of the pig
Ok. I checked. Brought him in the round 14 under 400k after two weeks at 100. With Oliver for Ronke and McRae. Went on to average 100 for the back end of the season. Interestingly, he turned it around after the bye followed by another 40 point match against... You guessed it, Hawthorne... I wonder what he learned after/during that game.

Boils down to luck for me.

I note picking up Brayshaw for sub 400 in round 10 was another lucky trade.

Luck.
 
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