Discussion High Rankings vs. Low Rankings - What did you do differently?

Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
4,763
Likes
10,590
AFL Club
West Coast
#61
Last year I picked Rich, Lonergan, Crouch x2 and Libba.

I wake up every morning, take a deep breath, stare into the mirror, and I say

I will not pick Steele
I will not pick JOM
I will not pick Swallow
I will not pick Steele
I will not pick Nankervis maybe
I will not pick Tuohy
I will not pick Steele
I will not pick Roughead
I will not pick Steele

This year I am going to pick the safest team ever, in hope I can keep my trades and be aggressive with every rookie that presents.
How is this going?
 
Joined
20 May 2014
Messages
3,332
Likes
8,209
AFL Club
St Kilda
#63
Thought I'd go down to the cellar and find this thread for a bump as I remembered it holding a heap of good insights. It does!

For my own thoughts the main thing I remember from my worst season is that I missed Witts at R2 and didn't correct, and then was constantly behind the 8-ball for points and then money, which dominoed into a whole host of other bad decisions. When things were going badly I tried to find different ways to climb back rather than closing off the reasons that I was flailing in the first place, so it only got worse.

In the years I've gone well I've got my rucks right (last year by keeping my options open with Lycett and then jumping early onto Grundy) and got structure right early so that the right rookies were on field. This involved plenty of early trades but I think that's a necessary evil. I see getting that structure right as the main skill in the early rounds and the key to a good start. Then you just need a heap of luck. For instance I traded in Lloyd just before he went 130, 173, 118 and went on to average >120 in my team. I had simply got him because I thought he was a reliable and good value ~95 ave who suited my bye structure. You just need some of that crazy upside out of nowhere at some point, I think. On the flip side of that Macrae was killing all us non-owners and getting out of reach so those who had him had their must-have locked in and were racing away, and then he got injured and the playing field was levelled again.

In terms of the overall thrust of the thread (why some players get good rankings one year and then terrible the next) I think it comes down to a riskier style of play, either in terms of being willing to pick a couple of midpricers who succeed or going against the grain on trades in order to maximise the effect if the selection comes off.
 

Bomber18

Leadership Group
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
26,920
Likes
63,223
AFL Club
Essendon
#64
Thought I'd go down to the cellar and find this thread for a bump as I remembered it holding a heap of good insights. It does!

For my own thoughts the main thing I remember from my worst season is that I missed Witts at R2 and didn't correct, and then was constantly behind the 8-ball for points and then money, which dominoed into a whole host of other bad decisions. When things were going badly I tried to find different ways to climb back rather than closing off the reasons that I was flailing in the first place, so it only got worse.

In the years I've gone well I've got my rucks right (last year by keeping my options open with Lycett and then jumping early onto Grundy) and got structure right early so that the right rookies were on field. This involved plenty of early trades but I think that's a necessary evil. I see getting that structure right as the main skill in the early rounds and the key to a good start. Then you just need a heap of luck. For instance I traded in Lloyd just before he went 130, 173, 118 and went on to average >120 in my team. I had simply got him because I thought he was a reliable and good value ~95 ave who suited my bye structure. You just need some of that crazy upside out of nowhere at some point, I think. On the flip side of that Macrae was killing all us non-owners and getting out of reach so those who had him had their must-have locked in and were racing away, and then he got injured and the playing field was levelled again.

In terms of the overall thrust of the thread (why some players get good rankings one year and then terrible the next) I think it comes down to a riskier style of play, either in terms of being willing to pick a couple of midpricers who succeed or going against the grain on trades in order to maximise the effect if the selection comes off.
Good bump! Your 2017 season reminds me of my shameful 2015 season of around 20k (so bad that it's left off my signature :p). It was the year when Shaw and Goldy went huge and I didn't own them at any point of the year. Lloyd and Grundy were those guys in 2018, and I thankfully finished up with both!

For me, 2018 was my best year so far (albeit not quite as good as stephen's best years!). The good start definitely helped. I started at around 1.4k and the worst rank I had all year was 2.3k (I don't think I've ever had a season like that with such a low deviation). I think it mainly boiled down to there being more obvious mid pricer selections at the start of the year. I'm not that big of a risk taker and usually miss the correct rookies so having pretty obvious value selections such as Coniglio, Devon Smith, Cripps, and Sicily at the start of the year really helped. It kept me away from Roughead, Sheridan, Lumumba types which have hurt my season in past years. Rookies were pretty obvious too Finlayson, Murray, Doedee, Holman etc. I didn't need a rookie correction as a result.

I agree with your last point. Although in this thread, there is a lot of talk about failed midpricers and rules about taking a more GnR approach, I think taking a risk on a few midpricers can set up your season (for the best or for the worst). Conversely, last year I think the coaches who did poorly might've been the ones who tried to go against the grain a bit and avoided popular mid pricers like Devon Smith, Sicily and Coniglio. It didn't pay off but it easily could have. I think I've learnt to not really bind myself by certain rules and play each year on its merits. It could be a more GnR year or it could also be a more mid pricer friendly year. I hate trying to pick Parfitt, Gresham types but I'm definitely open to it.
 
Joined
16 Mar 2012
Messages
3,547
Likes
611
AFL Club
Carlton
#65
I think getting in the top 1000 in SC is a genuine achievement given how serious and intelligent the competition is. I'll optimistically give myself a 25% chance of a top 1k finish in 2019 despite some fairly ordinary recent years.

2018: 4,202
2017: 4,958
2016: 12,347
2015: 345
2015: 2,405
 
Joined
30 Jun 2012
Messages
4,641
Likes
8,667
AFL Club
Brisbane
#66
220th baby!

First full year (after a long 2 year slog) without having full time work and study combined on my back.

Did not have Lloyd or Grundy for the entire year.

I did get lucky though. I was forced into a mid priced Chad who, unbelievably, went on a run that must have been close to 100 ave...
From memory, which is always sketchy at best, I think THCLT was highly placed at around that time too. I actually remember thinking he chose better players, but... Weird thing was they didn't perform.

Thanks, to the Chad for saving my season. I think I'll go check the records from last season now to renew my fire for the year of the pig
 
Joined
30 Jun 2012
Messages
4,641
Likes
8,667
AFL Club
Brisbane
#67
220th baby!

First full year (after a long 2 year slog) without having full time work and study combined on my back.

Did not have Lloyd or Grundy for the entire year.

I did get lucky though. I was forced into a mid priced Chad who, unbelievably, went on a run that must have been close to 100 ave...
From memory, which is always sketchy at best, I think THCLT was highly placed at around that time too. I actually remember thinking he chose better players, but... Weird thing was they didn't perform.

Thanks, to the Chad for saving my season. I think I'll go check the records from last season now to renew my fire for the year of the pig
Ok. I checked. Brought him in the round 14 under 400k after two weeks at 100. With Oliver for Ronke and McRae. Went on to average 100 for the back end of the season. Interestingly, he turned it around after the bye followed by another 40 point match against... You guessed it, Hawthorne... I wonder what he learned after/during that game.

Boils down to luck for me.

I note picking up Brayshaw for sub 400 in round 10 was another lucky trade.

Luck.
 

IDIG

Leadership Group
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
35,281
Likes
20,222
AFL Club
Essendon
#74
Thought I’d give this thread (one of my faves) its yearly bump as we have a lot of newer members who probably haven’t seen it before.

I’d be interested to hear from anyone that’s done well the last couple of years in particular because they’ve been my worst years by far and while I’d like to mark it down to having kids, they can only take so much blame ?

One thing I’ve noticed is that there seems to be far less pts separating ranks so one failed POD could be the difference between 1k and 10k. Two failed PODs 20k and so on. Whereas in previous years you could always make up spots through loopholes, trading etc but that seems less the case now.
 
Joined
24 Feb 2015
Messages
6,454
Likes
28,918
AFL Club
GWS Giants
#75
Thought I’d give this thread (one of my faves) its yearly bump as we have a lot of newer members who probably haven’t seen it before.

I’d be interested to hear from anyone that’s done well the last couple of years in particular because they’ve been my worst years by far and while I’d like to mark it down to having kids, they can only take so much blame ?

One thing I’ve noticed is that there seems to be far less pts separating ranks so one failed POD could be the difference between 1k and 10k. Two failed PODs 20k and so on. Whereas in previous years you could always make up spots through loopholes, trading etc but that seems less the case now.
Good bump @IDIG

Firstly - just enjoy it. I've learnt this over the years. I went through a period where I was going to just 'grow up' and give fantasy games away. You do have to enjoy it to keep coming back so pick a team that will bring you back each week.

Listen to the crowd but don't always follow the crowd. This is a tough one though and you do see groups which have a theme among some more unique players. Big Footy is rife with this and common 'unique' players in teams IMO. At the same time though, high % of selected players are just that for a reason. I'll put my hand up and say just before lock-out I'll look at ownership numbers and maybe make some changes. At the same time late in the season if I'm doing well again i look at ownership % and possibly go the other way for an edge becuase like you say, teams are much closer now days then they were 5 years or more ago when information wans't as available as it is now.

Starting teams are so important. I'm an advocate for GnR, not saying this is the way to go but if I pick guys to start in my team that are not rookies I do expect they'll be there after 23 rounds barring injury/suspension etc.

Own your decisions - when I was looking at parting ways with SC I was angry because I was making decisions based on influence. When they don't work it eats you up, make your own calls but again choose who you listen to.

Lastly - if you do commit to a league you really do have a responsibility to play the season out for everyone else in the league. One ghost ship ruins everyone elses season so don't be that guy. Man up, make the changes needed because you individually don't need to be top 1000 to take out the number one league. Honestly I've been involved in several leagues that have been #1 overall and it is just about commitment to your team.

But again, enjoy it.
 
Joined
24 Feb 2015
Messages
6,454
Likes
28,918
AFL Club
GWS Giants
#76
Good bump @IDIG

Firstly - just enjoy it. I've learnt this over the years. I went through a period where I was going to just 'grow up' and give fantasy games away. You do have to enjoy it to keep coming back so pick a team that will bring you back each week.

Listen to the crowd but don't always follow the crowd. This is a tough one though and you do see groups which have a theme among some more unique players. Big Footy is rife with this and common 'unique' players in teams IMO. At the same time though, high % of selected players are just that for a reason. I'll put my hand up and say just before lock-out I'll look at ownership numbers and maybe make some changes. At the same time late in the season if I'm doing well again i look at ownership % and possibly go the other way for an edge becuase like you say, teams are much closer now days then they were 5 years or more ago when information wans't as available as it is now.

Starting teams are so important. I'm an advocate for GnR, not saying this is the way to go but if I pick guys to start in my team that are not rookies I do expect they'll be there after 23 rounds barring injury/suspension etc.

Own your decisions - when I was looking at parting ways with SC I was angry because I was making decisions based on influence. When they don't work it eats you up, make your own calls but again choose who you listen to.

Lastly - if you do commit to a league you really do have a responsibility to play the season out for everyone else in the league. One ghost ship ruins everyone elses season so don't be that guy. Man up, make the changes needed because you individually don't need to be top 1000 to take out the number one league. Honestly I've been involved in several leagues that have been #1 overall and it is just about commitment to your team.

But again, enjoy it.
One other thing which I know creates discussion - the ruck line isn't the line to find a silver bullet. For me, I can't stress enough the set and forget logic in the rucks. This is where things can get messy and ruin a season. Any other line usually provides a plethora of options, downgrades, fallen premiums whatever, but trust me, it's a **** week looking to find a replacement for a unique ruck if you don't have the coin or trades to get to a rampant Grundy or Gawn. But that's just me.
 
Joined
8 Feb 2018
Messages
1,226
Likes
2,314
#77
Had a terrible season last year.... and I mean terrible.

I made some bad choices/picks but it all came down to my ruck line. I decided to start with Tim English and Sean Darcy (fantastic picks I know), and lead me down a hole of wasting trades and missing points by not having both Gawn and Grundy until after the byes.

Overall my lesson to take into 2020 is to set a solid structure and not waste trades.

Oh and to START BOTH GAWN AND GRUNDY NO EXCEPTIONS
 

IDIG

Leadership Group
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
35,281
Likes
20,222
AFL Club
Essendon
#78
Good bump @IDIG

Firstly - just enjoy it. I've learnt this over the years. I went through a period where I was going to just 'grow up' and give fantasy games away. You do have to enjoy it to keep coming back so pick a team that will bring you back each week.

Listen to the crowd but don't always follow the crowd. This is a tough one though and you do see groups which have a theme among some more unique players. Big Footy is rife with this and common 'unique' players in teams IMO. At the same time though, high % of selected players are just that for a reason. I'll put my hand up and say just before lock-out I'll look at ownership numbers and maybe make some changes. At the same time late in the season if I'm doing well again i look at ownership % and possibly go the other way for an edge becuase like you say, teams are much closer now days then they were 5 years or more ago when information wans't as available as it is now.

Starting teams are so important. I'm an advocate for GnR, not saying this is the way to go but if I pick guys to start in my team that are not rookies I do expect they'll be there after 23 rounds barring injury/suspension etc.

Own your decisions - when I was looking at parting ways with SC I was angry because I was making decisions based on influence. When they don't work it eats you up, make your own calls but again choose who you listen to.

Lastly - if you do commit to a league you really do have a responsibility to play the season out for everyone else in the league. One ghost ship ruins everyone elses season so don't be that guy. Man up, make the changes needed because you individually don't need to be top 1000 to take out the number one league. Honestly I've been involved in several leagues that have been #1 overall and it is just about commitment to your team.

But again, enjoy it.
Great post as always mate.

So true about the group think. It seems each of the major sites has an element of this and year after year, you see one site more prominent than another which is probably due to a popular bolter either hitting or missing.

I actually mentioned today that there already seems to be a relatively clear cookie cutter side appearing, which i will probably deviate from. Not to be different for the sake of being different but I think I’ll just take the tortured path because that’s what I find I enjoy more (I think).

It will be interesting to see what the Houstons and Dawsons of the world end up doing. You can already see they’ll be prominent in forum teams. Not sure if they will make or break a season but they’ll definitely be popular.
 

IDIG

Leadership Group
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
35,281
Likes
20,222
AFL Club
Essendon
#79
One other thing which I know creates discussion - the ruck line isn't the line to find a silver bullet. For me, I can't stress enough the set and forget logic in the rucks. This is where things can get messy and ruin a season. Any other line usually provides a plethora of options, downgrades, fallen premiums whatever, but trust me, it's a **** week looking to find a replacement for a unique ruck if you don't have the coin or trades to get to a rampant Grundy or Gawn. But that's just me.
Had a terrible season last year.... and I mean terrible.

I made some bad choices/picks but it all came down to my ruck line. I decided to start with Tim English and Sean Darcy (fantastic picks I know), and lead me down a hole of wasting trades and missing points by not having both Gawn and Grundy until after the byes.

Overall my lesson to take into 2020 is to set a solid structure and not waste trades.

Oh and to START BOTH GAWN AND GRUNDY NO EXCEPTIONS
I’m sensing a theme here :p
 
Joined
14 Feb 2015
Messages
72
Likes
164
AFL Club
Bulldogs
#80
My best year (top 100) was a while ago when my Dog mid pricers all got off to a ripping start. Minson had his best ever year and finished as the best ruck while Cooney and Libba both averaged 100+ early while being priced at 75 each. They were really easy early upgrades. And oh yeah, I started Griffen and he went bonkers too.
 
Top