Discussion NFL RDT Dream Team Discussion


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3 Jul 2017
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1. In 2019, nine of the top 10 fantasy quarterbacks had at least 200 rushing yards.
2. Last season, Dak Prescott had the second-most deep completions in the NFL.
3. The third-highest completion percentage on deep passes.
4. The fourth-most deep pass attempts.
5. The fifth-highest yards per attempt.
6. This year, the Dallas Cowboys drafted CeeDee Lamb, who was tied for second in the nation in TDs of 35-plus yards last season.
7. Last season, Prescott had 11 weekly finishes as a top-12 QB.
7a. Only Lamar Jackson had more.
8. Since Amari Cooper joined the Cowboys, Prescott is the second-best QB in total fantasy points.
8a. As of this writing, he is being drafted as QB6 on ESPN.
9. Last season, Kyler Murray was fourth in pass attempts outside the pocket.
10. He was 21st in touchdown percentage on passes outside the pocket.

11. Since 2018, new Arizona Cardinals addition DeAndre Hopkins is tied for the most touchdown receptions on plays where his QB is outside the pocket.
11a. He also has the second-most receiving yards on plays where his QB is outside the pocket.
11b. ... and the third-most receptions on plays where his QB is outside the pocket.
12. During Bruce Arians' final two seasons as the Arizona head coach, the Cardinals ranked fifth in pass percentage (63.8%).
13. Last season, Arians' Buccaneers ranked sixth in pass percentage (66.5%).
14. In Tom Brady's past 16 games with 40-plus pass attempts, he has 301.2 fantasy points (18.8 per game).
14a. That point total would've ranked as QB6 last season.
14b. Jameis Winston was QB5 last season with 305.4 fantasy points.
15. Last season, Aaron Rodgers was held to less than 15 fantasy points in 10 of 16 games.
16. He had his lowest completion percentage since 2015.
17. He had the third-lowest completion percentage in the NFL on deep passes.
18. He was off target on 20% of his throws, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
18a. In fact, since the start of 2018, only two other QBs have been off target on a higher percentage of throws.
19. Both pass-catchers the Green Bay Packers added this year, via free agency and the draft, are coming off a major injury (WR Devin Funchess and third-round rookie TE Josiah Deguara).
20. In head coach Matt LaFleur's first season, Aaron Rodgers had his fewest pass attempts in a season in which he played all 16 games since 2014.

21. Last season, the Green Bay Packers went 13-3, their best regular-season record since 2011, and went to the NFC Championship Game.
22. Last season, the New York Giants were fourth in overall pass percentage.
23. They were third in red zone pass percentage.
24. Daniel Jones had at least 20 yards rushing in seven of 12 starts.
25. Despite having just 12 games in which he attempted at least five passes, Jones had four games with 28 or more fantasy points, tied for third most in the NFL.
26. From Week 8 on last season, Jones was the fifth-best QB in fantasy.
27. Jones played ZERO snaps with Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Golden Tate and Darius Slayton on the field together last season.
Daniel Jones accounted for four or more TDs in one-third of his 12 starts as a rookie last season. Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
28. Jay Gruden was the offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals from 2011 to 2013.
29. In those three seasons, in order, Andy Dalton was QB20, QB13 and QB6 in fantasy points per game.
29a. 2011 was Dalton's rookie season.
30. Jay Gruden was the head coach in Washington from 2014 until Week 5 of the 2019 season.

31. In 2014, Washington had three different QBs start games.
31a. In 2018, Washington had four different QBs start games.
31b. In 2019, Gruden was fired five weeks in.
32. From 2015 through 2017, Kirk Cousins was QB11, QB6 and QB7 in fantasy points per game.
33. Last season, Gardner Minshew II had at least 16 fantasy points in eight of 12 starts.
34. He had at least 27 yards rushing in eight of 12 starts.
35. He just got Gruden as his offensive coordinator.
35a. As of this writing, Minshew's ADP on ESPN is QB27.
36. Since 2014, Philip Rivers has finished as a top-10 QB in total points just once.
37. Last season, when Rivers was pressured, he had more interceptions (seven) than touchdowns (six).
38. Last season, when Rivers was pressured, he ranked 21st in points per pass attempt.
39. Last season, the Chargers were seventh best at preventing pressure.
40. The Colts, Rivers' new team, were 25th.

41. From 2017 to 2019, 83.3% of running backs who finished the season top 10 at the position caught at least 50 passes.
42. Since the start of 2018, the sixth-best running back in yards per rush after first contact is ... Austin Ekeler.
42a. In Week 5 of last season, Melvin Gordon returned to the Chargers.
43. From Week 5 on last season, Ekeler was the fifth-best RB in fantasy.
44. Since he entered the NFL, Ekeler is third among running backs (minimum 100 carries) in fantasy points per touch.
44a. Gordon is now a member of the Denver Broncos.
45. Last season, in Weeks 1-9, Nick Chubb was RB5 on a points-per-game basis (18.93).
46. Last season, in Weeks 10-17, Chubb was RB23 on a points-per-game basis (12.97).
47. Last season, in Weeks 10-17, Kareem Hunt was RB24 on a points-per-game basis (12.67).
47a. As of this writing, Chubb's ADP is RB9 on ESPN.
47b. As of this writing, Hunt's ADP is RB27 on ESPN.
47c. Come on, guys. What are we doing here?
48. Last season, Chris Carson had nine games with at least 20 touches.
49. He was top five in the NFL in carries, yards per rush after first contact and runs of 20-plus yards.
50. From 2018 to 2019, Carson increased his receptions from 20 to 37 and his targets from 24 to 47.


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51. He scored nine touchdowns for the second consecutive season.
52. The Seahawks ranked seventh in rush percentage last season.
52a. His competition for carries: Rashaad Penny, who is likely to start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list; soon-to-be-30-year-old Carlos Hyde, who is on his sixth team since 2017; and fourth-round draft pick DeeJay Dallas, about whom Pete Carroll said following the draft, "Our guys are really excited about him on special teams."
53. Last season, in Weeks 1-6, before his injury, David Johnson averaged 17.7 touches per game.
54. During that stretch, he was top two in the NFL among RBs in receiving yards per game, routes run per game and yards per reception.
55. He was the fifth-best running back in fantasy in that span.
56. Last season for the Houston Texans, Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson combined for 1,480 rushing yards, 54 receptions for 452 yards and 14 total touchdowns on 382 touches.
56a. If you combined their stats, that player would have had the second-most touches of any running back and been the fifth-best RB in fantasy.
56b. As of this writing, David Johnson is RB18 on ESPN.
57. Last season, Le'Veon Bell was eighth in touches per game.
58. He had just four total touchdowns on 311 touches.
59. The other eight RBs with at least 300 touches last season averaged 11.5 touchdowns.
60. This offseason, the Jets signed center Connor McGovern from Denver and tackle George Fant from Seattle, and drafted 6-foot-7, 364-pound 2019 Jacobs Blocking Trophy winner Mekhi Becton.
60a. As of this writing, Le'Veon Bell's ADP on ESPN is fifth round.

61. In the 48 regular-season games Doug Pederson has been the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, there have been only six instances in which a RB got at least 20 carries.
62. Those six instances came from four different running backs.
63. In the first seven games last season -- when Jordan Howard, Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Nelson Agholor and (sometimes) DeSean Jackson were healthy -- Miles Sanders averaged 11 touches per game.
64. In that seven-game stretch, only one time did an Eagles RB get more than 15 touches in a game.
65. From Week 14 on last season, Boston Scott averaged 15 touches per game.
66. He was the seventh-best running back in fantasy during that stretch.
67. Last season, there were only five RBs (minimum 100 carries) who had a higher percentage of carries that went 10-plus yards than ... Jordan Howard.
68. Through the first 10 weeks of last season, Howard was the 20th-best RB in fantasy.
69. Since Howard entered the NFL in 2016, he is third in rushing yards and seventh in rushing touchdowns.
69a. In this year's NFL draft, the Miami Dolphins drafted three offensive linemen in the first four rounds.
69b. As of this writing, Howard's ADP on ESPN is RB38.

70. Over the past three years, when Stefon Diggs was off the field, Adam Thielen was targeted on 25.1% of his routes.
71. During that same stretch, Thielen has scored on 11% of his receptions with Diggs off the field (compared with 7% with Diggs on the field).
72. For his career, Thielen is averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game when seeing at least nine targets.
72a. The only receiver last season to average more than 22.8 points was Michael Thomas, with 23.4.
72b. Diggs is now on the Buffalo Bills.
73. Last season, Brandin Cooks had 72 targets in 14 games for the Los Angeles Rams.
73a. Cooks is now on the Texans.
74. The only player over the past two seasons with 150-plus catches AND a drop rate of less than 1% is ... current Los Angeles Ram Robert Woods.
75. Last season, Woods was ninth among all WRs in targets per game and yards per game.
76. He was second in routes run per game.
76a. He was the 12th-best WR in fantasy on a points-per-game basis.
76b. As of this writing, Woods' ADP on ESPN is WR17.
77. Over the past two seasons, Woods is the eighth-best WR in fantasy.
78. Among the players Woods has more total fantasy points than during that span are: Odell Beckham Jr., Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, Kenny Golladay, Allen Robinson II, JuJu Smith-Schuster, DJ Moore and Adam Thielen.
78a. As of this writing, all of the players listed above are being drafted ahead of Robert Woods.
78b. WTH, people.
78c. No, seriously. WTH.
Robert Woods has averaged 88 catches and 1,312 yards from scrimmage the past two seasons.
79. Here are the 2019 per-game averages for two WRs:

WR A: 4.9 rec., 7.4 targets, 74.3 yds., 15.1 yds/rec., 15.1 YAC, 31 routes, 0.50 rec. TDs, 15.4 fantasy pts.
WR B: 4.7 rec., 8.1 targets, 79.1 yds., 16.8 yds/rec., 23.5 YAC, 35 routes, 0.43 rec. TDs, 15.2 fantasy pts.
80. Player A's name is Amari Cooper.
80a. Player B's name is Michael Gallup.
81. Last season, Gallup was injured in Dallas' Week 2 game against Washington.
81a. He missed the next two games.
81b. He had subpar fantasy performances in two of his first three games back, during Weeks 5-7.
81c. The Cowboys had a bye in Week 8.
82. In the nine games from Week 9 on, Gallup led the Cowboys in target share, receiving yards and receiving TDs, averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game.
83. From Week 9 on last season, Cooper averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game.
84. As of this writing, Cooper's ADP on ESPN is WR11.
84a. Gallup's ADP on ESPN is WR31.
84b. Please refer to facts 78b and 78c.
85. From Week 14 on last season, the 12th-best WR in fantasy was ... Diontae Johnson.
86. From Week 14 on last season, the 13th-best WR in fantasy was ... Steven Sims Jr.
87. Last season, Courtland Sutton had a 26% target share, sixth highest in the NFL in terms of total team targets.
88. Last season, he had only three games with more than five catches.
89. His 55.1% career catch rate is 74th among qualified WRs in that span.
89a. This year, the Broncos spent their first two draft picks on highly regarded WRs Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler and added RB Melvin Gordon in free agency (92 receptions the past two seasons).


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90. In his rookie season, Marquise Brown got at least four targets in a game nine times.
90a. He averaged 14.8 points per game in those games.
90b. Extend that rate over a 16-game season and Brown would've finished last season as WR13, just ahead of Tyler Lockett.
90c. As of this writing, Brown's ADP is WR32, going in the ninth round.
91. Over the past three seasons, Travis Kelce has outscored "TE10" by 118.2%.
91a. Over the past three seasons, Christian McCaffrey has outscored "RB20" by 116.2%.
91b. Over the past three seasons, Michael Thomas has outscored "WR20" by 71.3%.
91c. Over the past three seasons, Russell Wilson has outscored "QB10" by 29.9%.
92. From Week 13 on, there were only seven players in all of fantasy football with more points than ... Tyler Higbee.
93. The last time we saw Rob Gronkowski, in 2018, he had only three games with more than four catches.
94. He tied a career low with three touchdowns.
94a. He still finished as TE9 that season.
95. Last season under Bruce Arians, despite inconsistent TE production, Tampa Bay was 11th in TE targets and TE red zone targets.
96. George Kittle's rookie year (15 games): 43 catches on 63 targets, 515 yards, 2 TDs, 359 routes run.
97. Noah Fant's rookie year (16 games): 40 catches on 63 targets, 562 yards, 3 TDs, 349 routes run.
97a. In George Kittle's second season, he finished as TE3.
98. Last season, Hayden Hurst was seventh among tight ends in yards per target.
99. Last season, the Atlanta Falcons, Hurst's new team, were 10th in tight end targets.
100. ... and tied for sixth in tight end red zone targets.


Leadership Group
3 Jul 2017
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Port Adelaide
C Ridley:

Average after M Sanu joined the New England Patriots: 30.17 from 6 (4/6 30+)
Averafe from RD1-7 with M Sanu: 21.29 from 7 (2/7 30+)

Several excerpts from the above articles:
Prior to suffering a season-ending abdominal injury in Week 14, Ridley was on pace to top 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in his career. He ultimately finished the year with 63 catches for 866 yards and seven touchdowns. In his first two NFL seasons Ridley has gained 1,687 yards and 17 touchdowns – one shy of tying Jones' franchise record for receiving touchdowns in the first two seasons of a career.

As for Ridley specifically, we’ve seen his average targets per game increase year over year since he entered the league. In 2018, he averaged 5.8 targets/game with Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu in the fold. In 2019, he saw a significant increase to an average of 7.2 targets/game, which would’ve equated to 115 targets had he played all 16 games.

Projecting Ridley’s catch percentage and yards per reception is fairly simple on that target share, but it’s projecting Ridley’s TDs that become fairly interesting. Last season, a WR scored a TD (on average) every 168.13 yards. When we take Ridley’s target share (124 targets) and project him with a 66% catch percentage and 13.5 yards per reception, which is what he’s been around up to this point in his career, we end up with 82 receptions for 1105 yards. If we use last year’s WR average to determine Ridley’s expected TDs based off of this yardage, we can safely project 7 TDs. However, we know that Ridley scored at a higher Yards/TD rate last season. While the league average was 168.13 yards per touchdown, Ridley averaged 123.71 yards per touchdown. That is a bit higher than the average, so we can expect a little bit more regression to the mean in 2020 and yet still feel comfortable with projecting 8 receiving touchdowns. If all that is the case, Ridley’s final projections look like 124 targets, 82 receptions, 1105 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns.