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https://www.espn.com/fantasy/footba...antasy-football-sleepers-busts-breakouts-2020
Quarterback sleepers
Stephania Bell: Cam Newton, New England Patriots
Matthew Berry: Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Matt Bowen: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Tom Carpenter: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Clay: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
Daniel Dopp: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Eric Karabell: Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Keith Lipscomb: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jim McCormick: Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Field Yates: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Quarterback busts
Stephania Bell: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Matthew Berry: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Matt Bowen: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Tom Carpenter: Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Mike Clay: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Daniel Dopp: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Eric Karabell: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Keith Lipscomb: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Jim McCormick: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Field Yates: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

Running back sleepers
Stephania Bell: Antonio Gibson, Washington Redskins
Matthew Berry: Antonio Gibson, Washington Redskins
Matt Bowen: Anthony McFarland, Pittsburgh Steelers
Tom Carpenter: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Mike Clay: Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
Daniel Dopp: Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
Eric Karabell: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Keith Lipscomb: Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Jim McCormick: Matt Breida, Miami Dolphins
Field Yates: James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers

Running back busts
Stephania Bell: Derrius Guice, Washington Redskins
Matthew Berry: Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
Matt Bowen: Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts
Tom Carpenter: Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Mike Clay: J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Tristan H. Cockcroft: James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers
Daniel Dopp: Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons
Eric Karabell: David Johnson, Houston Texans
Keith Lipscomb: Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons
Jim McCormick: Sony Michel, New England Patriots
Field Yates: Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers

Wide receiver sleepers
Stephania Bell: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Matthew Berry: Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
Matt Bowen: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Tom Carpenter: Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Mike Clay: Preston Williams, Miami Dolphins
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
Daniel Dopp: DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Eric Karabell: Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
Keith Lipscomb: Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Jim McCormick: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
Field Yates: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots

Wide receiver busts
Stephania Bell: Keenan Allen, Las Angeles Chargers
Matthew Berry: Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Matt Bowen: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Tom Carpenter: Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Clay: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Daniel Dopp: A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
Eric Karabell: A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
Keith Lipscomb: DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers
Jim McCormick: Julian Edelman, New England Patriots
Field Yates: Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
 

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Tight end sleepers
Stephania Bell: Blake Jarwin, Dallas Cowboys
Matthew Berry: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Matt Bowen: Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans
Tom Carpenter: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Mike Clay: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons
Daniel Dopp: Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
Eric Karabell: Adam Trautman, New Orleans Saints
Keith Lipscomb: Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons
Jim McCormick: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
Field Yates: Chris Herndon, New York Jets

Tight end busts
Stephania Bell: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
Matthew Berry: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints
Matt Bowen: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Carpenter: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Clay: Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Daniel Dopp: Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
Eric Karabell: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Keith Lipscomb: Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jim McCormick: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints
Field Yates: Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints

2020 breakout player
Stephania Bell: Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
Matthew Berry: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Matt Bowen: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
Tom Carpenter: DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Mike Clay: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
Daniel Dopp: Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Eric Karabell: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Keith Lipscomb: Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
Jim McCormick: Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
Field Yates: Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons

Several excerpts below from players that will likely feature under heavy consideration for my side.
Jonnu Smith, TE, Tennessee Titans: With Delanie Walker now out of the mix in Tennessee, Smith is one of my favorite late-round targets. In the 10 games with quarterback Ryan Tannehill as the starter in Tennessee, Smith caught 29 of 35 targets for 342 yards, including all three of his touchdown grabs. And while Tennessee's run-heavy game script does lower the floor a bit for Smith, the traits jump here. Smith has matchup ability and movement skills to produce in the open field. Look for the Titans to scheme opportunities for Smith here off play-action or when flexed from the formation. Don't be surprised if Smith posts lower-tier TE1 numbers this season. -- Matt Bowen

James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: The case for Conner is pretty simple: I believe he's going to be the guy in the Steelers' backfield, despite a host of talented other backs, including Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels and Anthony McFarland Jr. This isn't about coach-speak or offseason soundbites -- I just believe enough in the talent of Conner to think he'll prove to be the workhorse that we saw in 2018. And when Conner gets chances, he dominates. To wit: Conner has a total of 10 games in his career with at least 18 touches, scoring an incredible 28.3 fantasy points per game in those 10 contests. -- Field Yates

Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons: After two seasons largely stuck behind Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle on the Ravens' depth chart, Hurst was thrust into a golden opportunity in Atlanta this offseason. There, he'll absorb many of the targets that went in Austin Hooper's direction. Hooper had an 18.6% target share in his 13 healthy games in 2019 and was sixth best among tight ends in the category for the season when including his missed time. Hurst brings more speed to the table with similar size, so a top-eight positional season is possible. -- Tristan H. Cockcroft

Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants: The fifth-best QB in fantasy over the second half of last season, Jones flashed massive upside as a rookie, delivering four games with 28-plus fantasy points. And he was able to do that with Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Darius Slayton and Evan Engram playing zero snaps together. With a deep group of offensive playmakers, plus mobility (Jones averaged more than 21 rushing yards per game in 2019), and a defense that will force him to throw plenty, Danny Dimes is in perfect position for a breakout season in 2020. -- Matthew Berry

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs: The first running back ever selected in the first round by an Andy Reid team, Edwards-Helaire will immediately be positioned for a significant role in arguably the league's best offense. The LSU product is a terrific prospect, overcoming underwhelming size and speed with elite tackle-breaking, elusiveness, and receiving ability. Reid's offenses don't offer much volume for its RBs but make up for it with efficiency and a ton of touchdowns. Edwards-Helaire's second-round ADP is a major red flag, considering he's a rookie and Damien Williams is still expected to be a factor, but there's no doubt he has upside. -- Mike Clay

Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons: There was a 10-week stretch last season when one Atlanta Falcon receiver averaged 16.5 fantasy points per game on 13.2 air yards per target, while his counterpart averaged 14.4 fantasy points per game on 13.1 air yards per target. The former is Calvin Ridley, the latter Julio Jones. But this is more than just a connecting of dots based on previous production, this is a calculated bet on Ridley's route-running ability, his nose for the end zone and playing in a division where keeping up is going to involve throwing it a ton. Ridley checks the boxes of a player ready to explode. -- Field Yates
 

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https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/cowboys-fantasy-preview
https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/broncos-fantasy-preview


Dallas Cowboys:
Fantasy’s overall QB2 last year, Dak Prescott started all 16 games for the fourth straight season to open his career. He set career highs in passing yards (4,902), blowing his previous best of 3,885 out of the water, touchdowns (30), completions and pass attempts, while matching his career best with a 5% touchdown rate. Only five quarterbacks attempted more passes than Prescott, and he was top-five in attempts of 20-plus yards, finishing eighth in passer rating on such throws. Prescott was quickly slapped with the franchise tag ahead of free agency and recently just signed the one-year tender, locking him into a $31.409 million salary if no long-term deal is reached before July 15. There haven’t been any indications that a deal is close. While he isn’t the favorite for the award, Prescott should be in the MVP conversation when all is said and done. This offense is loaded with top-end talent and a top-tier offensive line.

Despite a sleepy finish to the season, Amari Cooper set career bests in yards per catch and yards per target in 2019. And he routinely did it against the opposing defense’s No. 1 corner. Some of those corners got the best of Cooper later in the season, however, as he faced a murderers’ row of Darius Slay, Stephon Gilmore, Tre’Davious White, and Jalen Ramsey. Still, only Kenny Golladay and Chris Godwin averaged more yards per target than Cooper last year. Dallas wasn’t willing to let Cooper walk away as a free agent, keeping him with a five-year, $100 million deal after some competition from the division-rival D.C. franchise. The selection of CeeDee Lamb shouldn’t have a profound effect on Cooper’s role as the No. 1 receiver in this offense considering the Cowboys have the second-most vacated targets from a season ago following the departures of Randall Cobb and Jason Witten. Cooper and Prescott have shown tremendous chemistry in 1.5 years together with some truly astronomical stat lines. One of the league’s best offenses from a talent standpoint, Cooper has all the opportunity in the world to hang top-end WR1 numbers on the board in 2020 with improved week-to-week consistency.

Lamb posted a bonkers 62-1,327-14 receiving line during his final season at Oklahoma while also continuing to provide value as a punt returner. The Consensus All-American wideout saved his best for the biggest games, showing out in high-profile matchups against Texas (10-171-3), Baylor (8-173-0), and LSU (4-119-0). Lamb’s playmaking ability and ability to impact games from all over the field made him everyone’s top-tier receiver prospect, so it was a surprise to see him slide all the way to No. 17 overall in April’s draft. The rich get richer with Dallas taking Lamb and adding him to Cooper and Gallup in three-wide sets, which should obviously be the base look for the Cowboys. Lamb doesn’t have a clear path to high-end volume, but the talent and overall wealth of the offense puts him on the WR2/3 map, even if he’s playing third fiddle to Cooper and Gallup. If one of those two were to ever get hurt and miss time, then watch out. Something in the range of 80-90 targets should be a safe floor for Lamb as a rookie.

The overall WR38 in half-PPR points per game last season as the Cowboys’ No. 2 tight end, Jarwin is in line for a major leap forward now that Jason Witten has left town. His departure vacates 83 targets. While Lamb could be funneled a chunk of those, there’s more than enough here for Jarwin to produce top-15 fantasy numbers at the tight end spot. He’s a better-than-average athlete playing in one of the elite offenses with a solid set of hands. Even at his old age with the movement skills of a refrigerator, Witten was able to post the TE16 finish last year. Younger and better, Jarwin can do much more and is fresh off signing a four-year extension with the team. Dalton Schultz and Blake Bell will handle depth blocking roles.

Ezekiel Elliott cleared 300 rushing attempts and 1,357 yards on the ground for the third time in as many full seasons, though his receptions slumped from 77 to 54. He made up for the dip in catches by doubling his rushing touchdowns total from six to 12 en route to the overall RB5 finish in half-PPR formats. Only Derrick Henry carried the ball more times than Elliott last year. McCarthy wasn’t always an RB1-friendly coach in Green Bay, but the Cowboys have retained Kellen Moore as play-caller. Even if Elliott’s ever-so-slightly scaled back 2019 importance is his new normal, he will easily maintain a top-five profile at running back. Elliott has one of the safest floors in fantasy football while offering no shortage of ceiling. He may no longer be the most exciting pick, but he remains an elite one headed into his age-25 campaign.


Denver Broncos:
Lining up opposite Sutton will be No. 15 overall pick Jerry Jeudy. A two-year starter for Nick Saban’s Alabama machine, Jeudy is an exceptional route runner with the ability to win at every level of the field. Jeudy led college football in 15-plus yard receptions over the past two years. Jeudy did disappoint with 38th-percentile adjusted SPARQ athleticism at the Combine. He needs to get stronger. Capable of playing both inside and out, Jeudy could line up all over the field as the Broncos figure out how to deploy him and fellow rookie wideout KJ Hamler.

The Broncos have the most crowded tight end group west of Soldier Field, but sensational sop****re Fant is the clear leader. Although he dealt with three different quarterbacks and failed to reach six targets in any of his final six games, Fant quietly had one of the most productive seasons for a rookie tight end in NFL history. Fant’s 562 yards were the 15th most by a first-year tight end since the AFL/NFL merger in 1970. His 14.1 yards per grab were 13th. His “best comparable” on PlayerProfiler.com is Mr. George Kittle. Paired with a quarterback who frequently found his tight end for big plays in college, Fant is going to provide spiked weeks. The question is if he will have the consistency to serve as an every-week TE1.

Running back did not appear to be a position of need for the Broncos, but they went out and upgraded it, anyways, as they revamped their offense for Lock. Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman were a perfectly fine two-man backfield. Melvin Gordon/Phillip Lindsay is a considerably better one. Despite the good work Lindsay has done as a former undrafted free agent over the past two years, it will be Gordon assuming 1A status and likely handling 60-70 percent of the team’s snaps. Gordon’s 2019 never really got into gear following his four-game holdout, though he had a four-week stretch in the middle of the season where he handled 85 touches and generated 442 yards from scrimmage. For his 12-game year, Gordon’s receptions were (slightly) down as Austin Ekeler dominated through the air, but he still caught 42 passes.
 

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https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/packers-fantasy-preview
https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/lions-fantasy-preview-0

Green Bay Packers:
Last season, Davante Adams posted a 100-1,295-7 receiving line on 149 targets across 14 games, including playoffs. That’s 19.4 PPR points on 10.6 targets per game, and that doesn’t include the positive touchdown regression I expect him to add this season. With nobody established behind him on the receiver depth chart, Adams can safely be projected for top-five usage, both between the 20s and inside the red zone. Adams is the consensus WR2 overall in the Rotoworld staff rankings right now, although I nearly put Adams above Michael Thomas in the Rotoworld Draft Guide and probably would in non-PPR leagues. The question is not whether Adams will produce huge fantasy numbers (he will), but is Adams worth drafting in the first round over the top running backs and Travis Kelce? Thus far, I’ve usually been opting for backs like Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon over Adams but will gladly scope up Adams if he falls to 10th overall or beyond in PPR leagues.

Aaron Jones finished as the RB4 overall on a per-game basis last year by finding the end zone a league-high 19 times, 16 of those coming on the ground. It’s ludicrous production, but it’s bound to deeply regress in 2020. My expected rushing touchdown model believed Jones scored 7.7 more touchdowns than he should have as a rusher last season, and now he has to keep the Packers' 247-pound second-round rookie running back on the sideline. Jones is one of the most underrated talents -- he also caught 49 passes for 7.0 yards per target -- but team and personal negative regression send him to the high-end RB2 mix. I personally haven’t drafted Jones in the second round through 40+ drafts this offseason.

Detroit Lions:

The NFL’s leader in receiving scores (11) and targets inside the 10-yard line (13) last year, Kenny Golladay improved in Pro Football Focus’ predictive Yards Per Route Run metric for the third consecutive season (2.03 > 1.87 > 1.66). Furthermore, the budding 26-year-old commanded the third-most air yards (994, 124.2 per game) with Stafford at the helm, seeing a league-high 22 targets 20-plus yards downfield. Those types of one-on-one coin-flip targets are admittedly volatile, but that term is far too often painted with a negative brush. With an elite athletic profile and untapped ceiling at 6’4/218, it’s possible Golladay, whose catch rate (56%) trickled below his career average (57.6%) last year, hauls in even more downfield targets as this decade's version of Calvin Johnson. I have him ranked as my overall WR6 with upside baked in.

Detroit pulled the trigger on Georgia RB D’Andre Swift with the third pick of day two, cratering any ceiling Johnson had pre-draft. The rookie recorded just three drops and 9.1 yards per catch on 73 career receptions from both the backfield and out wide in the Bulldogs’ formation, signaling a fantasy-friendly role from the moment he takes the field. Only the Rams targeted their running backs at a lower rate (10%) while Stafford was under center (12%), but Swift’s sheer explosiveness — Pro Football Focus charted him with the highest rate of 10-plus yard gains (20%) among this year’s class — sets him apart as a fruitful role player with the ability to take on a larger load if called upon. I consider him a FLEX option with upside out the gates, and a pivotal pick for any Zero-RB strategies. Johnson's injury history could also allow Swift to take over sooner than expected.
 

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https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/texans-fantasy-preview
https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/colts-fantasy-preview

Houston Texans:
It is a whole new world for Deshaun Watson, as his go-to target DeAndre Hopkins is no longer in the fold as a safety blanket and big play threat. Hopkins owned a third of Watson’s completions over the last two seasons. To revert back to the eye test, too often Watson was not afforded the same easy completions as his peers over the middle of the field - think Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo. Watson was forced off his primary read too often. Hopefully Tim Kelly manufactures spacing and open receivers in the passing game, because lay-ups would be a major bonus for a quarterback who is capable of the spectacular. There are a few areas of improvement, the first being play action rate. The Texans were 19th in play action frequency last season. Adding names to the backfield, interior receivers and vertical passing elements suggests the Texans could land in the top third of the league in play action passing this season. The next is passing percentage in neutral score situations, as the Texans ranked 18th in frequency at 56%. At the end of the day, Watson is capable of creating magic, especially when behind on the scoreboard. Watson’s rushing numbers jumped from 4.4 yards when leading to 6.3 yards when trailing. A healthy Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller would do wonders for one of the best vertical passers in the game, and that’s why Watson firmly sits as a top 5 or 6 pick at the quarterback position.

By now you have seen the eye-popping numbers for Will Fuller when playing with Watson, compiling 82 catches for 1,237 yards and seven touchdowns in his last 16 healthy games. The duo’s connection is rare, but the glaring roadblock is Fuller’s inability to stay on the field - playing in just 42 of a possible 64 games over the last four years, and Fuller has not completed a full season since his final year of college. Contract years often bring out the best in soon-to-be free agents, and Fuller could be the next name on the list. While many will focus on the negatives, I implore you to look at the positives with Fuller - because if Fuller can manage to play 16 games this season he should shatter his season high mark of 92 targets as a rookie, resulting in a ridiculous value at his current ADP in WR3 territory and become the type of player that propels you into the fantasy playoffs.

The volume is available for David Johnson to explode this season - if his on record explosiveness cooperates. Carlos Hyde leaves behind 245 carries, a number that Johnson has reached just twice in his five-year career. The Texans heavily invested to improve their offensive line prior to the 2019 season, but injuries kept first-round pick Tytus Howard out for over half the season. While Hyde posted one of the quietest 1,000-yard rushing seasons in recent memory, it is fair to question if he was actually a positive in fantasy formats. How often did he win you weeks? Hyde finished the season as the RB23 in total fantasy points, yet he contributed just five double-digit scoring games while averaging 9.8 Half PPR per contest. He is the poster player for why we should all focus on fantasy points per game over cumulative season scoring. Regardless, Johnson should see the bulk of backfield carries as long as his health cooperates, and if some of his explosiveness and tackle breaking abilities return, Johnson could be a value at his current RB22 status.

Indianapolis Colts:
Despite Brissett being under center, T.Y. Hilton was able to post a 20-195-4 line across the Colts’ first three games, but a calf injury in late September shelved Hilton and pretty much derailed his season after that. Hilton posted career lows in targets (68), catches (45), yards (501), and touchdowns (five) while missing six games, the most of his career in a single season. Going from Brissett to Rivers should present a mammoth upgrade for Hilton, but Rivers is still no Andrew Luck. Now entering his age-31 season and coming off soft-tissue injuries, Hilton has some concerns regarding his outlook, but he is entering a contract year and should have some added juice to secure his next payday. Coming off the WR37 season in half-PPR points per game, Hilton is worth snapping up as a back-end WR2 in summer fantasy drafts.

Taken with the second pick of the second round, Michael Pittman landed in an ideal spot for year-one production and has already become one of my favorite rookies to track in this 2020 class. Big and fast enough at 6’4/223 with 4.52 speed, Pittman was a vertical beast at USC. Pro Football Focus credited over a third of his 2019 receiving yards to go routes, winning time and again on contested downfield catches. And he’s not just a deep threat. With his size and physicality, Pittman showed an ability to win with YAC as a tough-to-bring-down heavyweight in the open field. In their virtual draft setup aired after-the-fact on YouTube, the Colts couldn’t stop raving about Pittman. Everyone seemed on board with the pick at No. 34 overall, with Ballard, Reich, and the scouts all talking him up, and Ballard even tossed out a comparison to ex-Chargers WR Vincent Jackson.

The most accomplished running back in this year's draft class, Jonathan Taylor(5’10”/226) eclipsed 1,975 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns each of his three seasons at Wisconsin. He was a first-down machine in 2019, racking up a nation-leading 97 of them while churning out 10-plus yards on a ridiculous 61-of-320 carries. In only three years, Taylor produced as the NCAA’s No. 6 all-time rusher (6,174 yards). Taylor’s 96th-percentile SPARQ score pops on tape. Taylor breaks arm tackles and leverages his 4.39 wheels to explode by defenders. On the other hand, his cement mitts are on notice after he tied for the FBS lead in fumbles (six), while also dropping an abysmal 8-of-50 career targets. Taylor committed to becoming a better receiving back last offseason, tripling his reception total between his sop****re (eight) and junior campaigns (26). Taylor's three-down potential hinges on continued pass-catching growth. His early-down role isn’t even set, either, as the coaches have constantly talked up Mack and Taylor as a “1-1 punch,” whatever that means. Mack isn’t just going to disappear. It’s tough to love Taylor’s RB30 ADP, but the upside is there if he somehow usurps Mack behind this elite line.
 

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https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/jaguars-fantasy-preview
https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/chargers-fantasy-preview

Jacksonville Jaguars:
“Every opportunity” is a cliché, but that’s what Leonard Fournette got in 2019. He did not make the most of it. Fournette was third in touches (341) and 75th in touchdowns (three). Scores can be random, but Fournette’s mediocrity was not. 19.5 percent of Fournette’s rushing yardage (225) came in one game, while he was well below average as a pass catcher, turning a whopping 100 targets into 76/522/0/6.9.

Every opportunity is out the window for 2020. The Jags told anyone who would listen that Fournette was available for trade, but the phone never rang. The Jags then declined Fournette’s fifth-year team option, a naked admission of defeat. The first thing to go will be Fournette’s monopoly on third downs. Teacher’s pet Chris Thompson has followed Gruden from Washington. Staying on the field is the challenge for Thompson. If he can manage it, he could provide RB4 value in PPR leagues as one of the NFL’s better pure pass-catching backs.


Los Angeles Chargers:
Keenan Allen is a slight loser with the quarterback swap. His chemistry isn’t as strong with Tyrod as it was with Rivers after playing together for seven seasons, and Allen’s target totals are projected to drop after averaging 9.25 looks per game across the last three seasons. Part of that is simply Tyrod’s passing abilities and the likely transition to a more run-first offensive approach. The other reason is Hunter Henry’s presence (Allen’s target average dropped from 11.0 to 8.3 in the games Henry played). It’s going to be difficult for Allen to be an every-week WR2 in fantasy if he slides into the 7-8 weekly target range given his forgettable 4.4% career touchdown rate. I’ve been drafting Terry McLaurin, the Seattle receivers, T.Y. Hilton, and D.J. Chark over Allen in early drafts. Their ceilings are simply higher, especially so in half-point and non-PPR leagues.

Austin Ekeler was a league-winner last season (19.6 PPR points per game) after shredding defenses with high-level play as a receiver out of the backfield and out wide (92 receptions on 108 targets). The volume will be there once again, especially with Melvin Gordon leaving behind 13.5 carries and 3.5 receptions per game, but Ekeler’s efficiency will be regressing. Ekeler had a whopping 926 yards after the catch last season, which was 276 yards over expectation per my YAC model. That easily led the NFL regardless of position. My two primary questions are if the Chargers Offense can play well enough and if Ekeler can see enough goal-line work to pay off his RB12 average draft position. I worry that Ekeler’s size (5’10/200) and ball security issues leave the door open for vultured short-yardage touchdowns, and those goal-line opportunities may be far and in between given the Chargers’ 32nd-ranked offensive pace. In PPR leagues, I’ll still buy him in the middle to late second round, but I currently have him ranked behind Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, and even Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
 

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https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/chiefs-fantasy-preview

Kansas City Chiefs:
The only quarterback with double-digit touchdown passes (11) of 50-plus yards since ‘18, Mahomes nestles into his third full year commanding Reid’s offense knowing he’s paid into his age-36 season. The Chiefs have a median slate of opposing pass defenses on deck, facing the seventh-toughest helping of secondaries in their first month in particular, but none of that matters when discussing the 24-year-old’s budding outlook. The only question fantasy players need ask is if Mahomes can topple Lamar Jackson as the cream of the crop, and the maneuverability the former showed in averaging 7.7 scrambles, tacking on an additional 6.9 fantasy points per game via his legs over Kansas City’s last four contests suggests a punchers chance. Mahomes' floor is finishing as the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy, while his ceiling entails becoming the 46th President of the United States.

Avoiding suspension only to break his collarbone in Kansas City’s season opener, Tyreek Hill averaged 16.2 fantasy points in the 11 games he stayed healthy with Mahomes, spiking 23.8 in four week-winning performances. The 26-year-old did underwhelm with 13 points or fewer in six of his 14 (42.8%) full games, but that’s nothing new for Hill, who failed to exceed that mark in 7-of-16 outings (despite averaging the fourth-most fantasy points among wideouts) from Mahomes the year prior. It’s not brain surgery: sometimes it’s as simple rostering the league’s most explosive player who happens to be playing with the league’s most explosive quarterback. Thus there’s no fault in prioritizing Hill’s field-flipping ceiling behind Michael Thomas and Davante Adams as this year’s overall WR3.

Most tight ends dream of piecing together Travis Kelce’s consistency as the overall TE1 for four years running, and that shouldn’t change with a similar surrounding cast. The 30-year-old averaged 8.3 targets in 16 full games with Mahomes last year, leading his position in targets (136) for the second time in the last three years. As Sharp Football’s Rich Hribar noted, expectations for Kelce’s production should remain high after he converted just 2-of-10 targets inside the 10-yard line (and 1-of-8 in the end zone) into touchdowns. He’s the only tight end with a reasonable case to be drafted fifth-overall in TE Premium (1.5 PPR) leagues and remains a strong option at the end of the first round in re-draft formats if only to avoid shuffling through late-round options with eggs as floors.

Reid’s Week 1 starter during his tenure with the Chiefs has recorded at least 16.4 touches per game in 6-of-7 seasons, the lone exception being Damien Williams’ 12.8 across 11 injury-riddled appearances last year. Furthermore, Reid’s starting runner has averaged at least 16.7 fantasy points in five of the past seven years, Spencer Ware (13.8 in 2016) and, again, Williams (12.8) being the outliers. With that in mind, it’s not a stretch to pencil in rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (5’7/207), who Reid thought “was better than Brian Westbrook” before Veach rushed to the board at the end of Day One, as the pick to click among this bunch.

Both Veach and RBs coach Deland McCullough have suggested a “shared load”out the gates for this contentious duo, but Helaire’s status as an unconventional three-down prospect with elite route-running chops cements him in the driver’s seat. And while he was previously debated as this offseason’s unanimous fade among high-stakes’ brightest minds, the Fresh Prince of Helaire’s ADP has since suppressed, shifting from an early second-round pick in April to 2.9 as the overall RB14 in July.
 

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https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/chiefs-fantasy-preview

Kansas City Chiefs:
The only quarterback with double-digit touchdown passes (11) of 50-plus yards since ‘18, Mahomes nestles into his third full year commanding Reid’s offense knowing he’s paid into his age-36 season. The Chiefs have a median slate of opposing pass defenses on deck, facing the seventh-toughest helping of secondaries in their first month in particular, but none of that matters when discussing the 24-year-old’s budding outlook. The only question fantasy players need ask is if Mahomes can topple Lamar Jackson as the cream of the crop, and the maneuverability the former showed in averaging 7.7 scrambles, tacking on an additional 6.9 fantasy points per game via his legs over Kansas City’s last four contests suggests a punchers chance. Mahomes' floor is finishing as the No. 2 quarterback in fantasy, while his ceiling entails becoming the 46th President of the United States.

Avoiding suspension only to break his collarbone in Kansas City’s season opener, Tyreek Hill averaged 16.2 fantasy points in the 11 games he stayed healthy with Mahomes, spiking 23.8 in four week-winning performances. The 26-year-old did underwhelm with 13 points or fewer in six of his 14 (42.8%) full games, but that’s nothing new for Hill, who failed to exceed that mark in 7-of-16 outings (despite averaging the fourth-most fantasy points among wideouts) from Mahomes the year prior. It’s not brain surgery: sometimes it’s as simple rostering the league’s most explosive player who happens to be playing with the league’s most explosive quarterback. Thus there’s no fault in prioritizing Hill’s field-flipping ceiling behind Michael Thomas and Davante Adams as this year’s overall WR3.
P Mahomes:
2018 Avg: 52.94 from 16
2019 Avg: 40.93 from 14

Over a 20% reduction meaning he should be priced around the $16 to $16.5 million range.
 

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https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/rams-fantasy-preview
https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/dolphins-fantasy-preview

Los Angeles Rams:
After posting just one 100-yard game with no touchdowns before the Week 9 bye, Robert Woods emerged as the clear No. 1 pass-game option in the Rams’ revamped offense following the open date. Overall, Woods had at least nine targets in every game from Weeks 10-17, finishing as the overall WR18 in half-PPR formats. Somehow, Woods found the end zone just three times on 107 touches, making him one of the league’s more-unlucky high-usage players after he scored seven times the previous season. He still has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to his name and is truly one of the most underrated wideouts in the sport from an all-around perspective. Brandin Cooks’ trade to Houston has Woods more locked in than ever as the Rams’ No. 1 wideout. Woods has averaged 134.5 targets and 18 rushing attempts over the past two seasons. Still just 28, Woods could be looking down the barrel of a career-best 2020 year.

Coming off his torn ACL the year before, Cooper Kupp managed to play all 16 games last season en route to the overall WR7 finish in half-PPR points per game. Still, Kupp had some odd usage games mixed into his season where he played less than 70% of the snaps four times, including a 28% clip in Week 14. He played over 89% of the downs 10 other times. The coaching staff chalked it up to game script. In the end, it didn’t affect Kupp’s counting stats, as he easily set career highs across the board with a 94-1,161-10 line on 134 targets. It will be interesting to see how the absence of Brandin Cooks’ deep speed affects the other parts of this offense. The Rams don’t really have a true outside speed threat on the roster now. Still, Kupp figures to operate as Goff’s No. 1 or 2 option most weeks, and he’s always been the quarterback’s top target in the red zone, leading the team in inside-the-20 looks over the last two seasons. Kupp should be drafted as a WR1 in one of the league’s pass-happiest offenses.

Despite being limited by Florida State’s painful offense, Cam Akers had three seasons with at least 840 total yards and eight touchdowns. His best year, by far, came last season as a junior, finishing with 1,114 yards rushing and 14 scores on the ground. Per PFF, 3.9 of Akers’ 4.9 yards per carry came after contact. On top of being an impressive runner, Akers showed promise as a pass-catcher, finishing with 69 career receptions, 30 of which came in 2019. 21-year-old Akers offers three-down upside, but he will be competing with Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson in the Rams’ post-Todd Gurley backfield. It clearly works in Akers’ favor that the Rams already knew what they had in Henderson and Brown and were still willing to invest the No. 52 overall pick, taking Akers three spots ahead of J.K. Dobbins. McVay has talked up his “three really good backs.” The Rams’ aggressive draft investment makes Akers the favorite for lead duties, but it’s just impossible to know how this will shake out. Akers is a classic risk/reward RB2/3.

Miami Dolphins:
Gesicki is the man to watch behind the wideouts. Like Parker, Gesicki’s 2019 production spiked following the loss of Williams, but it was a much-needed step forward after a concerning rookie effort. A pure pass catcher up the seam, Gesicki spent 72 percent of his snaps in the slot last season, something Gailey has pledged to continue with a “big slot” role. Standing in at a mountainous 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, Gesicki certainly has the size to create mismatches. Coming off a campaign where he showed clear improvement, Gesicki has more target competition than it might appear at first glance, but he is well worth a look on the TE1/2 borderline in a year full of intriguing options at what is usually a staid position.
 

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https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/rams-fantasy-preview
https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/dolphins-fantasy-preview

Los Angeles Rams:
After posting just one 100-yard game with no touchdowns before the Week 9 bye, Robert Woods emerged as the clear No. 1 pass-game option in the Rams’ revamped offense following the open date. Overall, Woods had at least nine targets in every game from Weeks 10-17, finishing as the overall WR18 in half-PPR formats. Somehow, Woods found the end zone just three times on 107 touches, making him one of the league’s more-unlucky high-usage players after he scored seven times the previous season. He still has back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to his name and is truly one of the most underrated wideouts in the sport from an all-around perspective. Brandin Cooks’ trade to Houston has Woods more locked in than ever as the Rams’ No. 1 wideout. Woods has averaged 134.5 targets and 18 rushing attempts over the past two seasons. Still just 28, Woods could be looking down the barrel of a career-best 2020 year.

Coming off his torn ACL the year before, Cooper Kupp managed to play all 16 games last season en route to the overall WR7 finish in half-PPR points per game. Still, Kupp had some odd usage games mixed into his season where he played less than 70% of the snaps four times, including a 28% clip in Week 14. He played over 89% of the downs 10 other times. The coaching staff chalked it up to game script. In the end, it didn’t affect Kupp’s counting stats, as he easily set career highs across the board with a 94-1,161-10 line on 134 targets. It will be interesting to see how the absence of Brandin Cooks’ deep speed affects the other parts of this offense. The Rams don’t really have a true outside speed threat on the roster now. Still, Kupp figures to operate as Goff’s No. 1 or 2 option most weeks, and he’s always been the quarterback’s top target in the red zone, leading the team in inside-the-20 looks over the last two seasons. Kupp should be drafted as a WR1 in one of the league’s pass-happiest offenses.

Despite being limited by Florida State’s painful offense, Cam Akers had three seasons with at least 840 total yards and eight touchdowns. His best year, by far, came last season as a junior, finishing with 1,114 yards rushing and 14 scores on the ground. Per PFF, 3.9 of Akers’ 4.9 yards per carry came after contact. On top of being an impressive runner, Akers showed promise as a pass-catcher, finishing with 69 career receptions, 30 of which came in 2019. 21-year-old Akers offers three-down upside, but he will be competing with Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson in the Rams’ post-Todd Gurley backfield. It clearly works in Akers’ favor that the Rams already knew what they had in Henderson and Brown and were still willing to invest the No. 52 overall pick, taking Akers three spots ahead of J.K. Dobbins. McVay has talked up his “three really good backs.” The Rams’ aggressive draft investment makes Akers the favorite for lead duties, but it’s just impossible to know how this will shake out. Akers is a classic risk/reward RB2/3.

Miami Dolphins:
Gesicki is the man to watch behind the wideouts. Like Parker, Gesicki’s 2019 production spiked following the loss of Williams, but it was a much-needed step forward after a concerning rookie effort. A pure pass catcher up the seam, Gesicki spent 72 percent of his snaps in the slot last season, something Gailey has pledged to continue with a “big slot” role. Standing in at a mountainous 6-foot-6, 250 pounds, Gesicki certainly has the size to create mismatches. Coming off a campaign where he showed clear improvement, Gesicki has more target competition than it might appear at first glance, but he is well worth a look on the TE1/2 borderline in a year full of intriguing options at what is usually a staid position.
Akers should be a great bench selection and I will likely pair him with C Edwards-Helaire as my RB5 and RB6 due to the outstanding value available from RB1 to RB4.
 
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