Discussion NFL RDT Dream Team Discussion

KLo30

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There were so many spot fires to put out, moving CMC on was the least of the concerns for me. Saquon Barkley, Adams, Thomas, Julio Jones, Ruggs III, Herndon, Tyrod Taylor all in the cue before CMC. Then Hurst decided he wasn't up to the challenge of #1 TE.

With so many games being shifted around, new, unexpected problems are arising. I'll be forced to trade a defense with the Colts and Dolphins now having the same bye week.

It will be interesting to see how those with Burrow handle their QB byes. Stick with him or trade him on.
 
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It will be interesting to see how those with Burrow handle their QB byes. Stick with him or trade him on.
Well we'll find out soon enough with both Russ and Herbert on bye this weekend. I'm guessing the vast majority of Russ owners will roll Burrow out. Last week really was an outlier. Wouldn't expect Burrow to register another single digit score all season unless he gets injured. Yes the Colts defense is no joke but Burrow is still projected to score around the 30pt mark give or take.

Anyway not something you or I have to worry about @KLo30 this week. I'm probably planning to swap out Burrow for Herbert next week with that schedule easing up for the Chargers. Should be better cover should my QB1/2 miss a game here or there through injury and not just for their byes.
 
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CMC is still in 15% of teams or over 300 coaches so Rupert isn't alone there. Curiously Thomas owners are only 8% or about half that and he never even went on IR and looks like he will be back before CMC now, in fact would've been back last week but for that altercation. Not sure anyone in the SCS leagues kept him.

So much of how we view injured players are based on their recent scores and in Thomas's case it was just 6 vs 44 for CMC. You could say that's cash related but really these guys are meant to be season long keepers so cash concerns really shouldn't factor in.

It's true that Adams (still owned by 40%!) did score poorly in his last game but he also had that monster Week 1. If he never scored that 69 and instead got injured in Week 1 for 10pts then his ownership probably wouldn't be anywhere near 40%, even though it's exactly the same player.

All 3 of these guys were expected to be top 3 in their position before the season started and when healthy I'm not sure that changes much when they return. Just find the fantasy psychology of it all quite interesting. I mean I kept Adams and got rid of Thomas too so I'm part of that herd mentality as well.
I kept CMC and Adams and traded Thomas because:
I see the Panthers and Packers offence depending upon CMC and Adams
the Saints don't necessarily rely upon Thomas. They have Kamarra and brought in Sanders. Thomas had only 5 targets in week.1 - his lowest number of targets last year was 7 in wk.3

I'm not trading Burrows because I have other concerns, I see last week as a one-off (hopefully) and I want to trade him to Wilson.
 
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I kept CMC and Adams and traded Thomas because:
I see the Panthers and Packers offence depending upon CMC and Adams
the Saints don't necessarily rely upon Thomas. They have Kamarra and brought in Sanders. Thomas had only 5 targets in week.1 - his lowest number of targets last year was 7 in wk.3

I'm not trading Burrows because I have other concerns, I see last week as a one-off (hopefully) and I want to trade him to Wilson.
Of course these things are always easier in hindsight. If we knew for sure that CMC would be out 5+ weeks then holders who kept him may have made different decisions.

Also not many would've expected Davis to shine quite as brightly as he has. RB 3 over the past 3 weeks in terms of total pts behind Kamara and Cook and ahead of the likes of Zeke which is pretty crazy. He has a challenging match-up this week so will be curious to see how much the Bears defense slows him down.

It's given the Panthers some wriggle room to get CMC close to 100% before wheeling him out. If Davis was spudding it up then there might be a bit more urgency to get CMC back out there.
 
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Of course these things are always easier in hindsight. If we knew for sure that CMC would be out 5+ weeks then holders may have made different decisions.

Also not many would've expected Davis to shine quite as brightly as he has. RB 3 over the past 3 weeks in terms of total pts behind Kamara and Cook and ahead of the likes of Zeke which is pretty crazy. He has a challenging match-up this week so will be curious to see how much the Bears defense slows him down.

It's given the Panthers some wriggle room to get CMC close to 100% before wheeling him out. If Davis was spudding it up then there might be a bit more urgency to get CMC back out there.
Yeah, that's so true.
I thought the Panthers would want CMC back asap but with Davis doing so well they can ease him back in. Maybe have CMC share with Davis even when CMC is fully fit.
 
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Yeah, that's so true.
I thought the Panthers would want CMC back asap but with Davis doing so well they can ease him back in. Maybe have CMC share with Davis even when CMC is fully fit.
That's a horrible thought. You don't want a $21,600,000 player in CMC sharing points. His price could drop quickly, so before trading him in right away, maybe wait. :unsure:
 
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That's a horrible thought. You don't want a $21,600,000 player in CMC sharing points. His price could drop quickly, so before trading him in right away, maybe wait. :unsure:
It’s a possibility although the consensus view seems to be is that it’s still CMC’s backfield and Davis will recede into the background once he’s back. Davis has performed that well though that we can’t rule that split possibility out just yet, as crazy as that would’ve sounded 3 weeks ago.
 

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It will be interesting to see how those with Burrow handle their QB byes. Stick with him or trade him on.
Well we'll find out soon enough with both Russ and Herbert on bye this weekend. I'm guessing the vast majority of Russ owners will roll Burrow out. Last week really was an outlier. Wouldn't expect Burrow to register another single digit score all season unless he gets injured. Yes the Colts defense is no joke but Burrow is still projected to score around the 30pt mark give or take.

Anyway not something you or I have to worry about @KLo30 this week. I'm probably planning to swap out Burrow for Herbert next week with that schedule easing up for the Chargers. Should be better cover should my QB1/2 miss a game here or there through injury and not just for their byes.
Ideally turning Burrow into L Jackson for around or less than $5 million before the Kansas City bye via a downgrade of Gano to a kicker loophole and a downgrade of J Taylor/DST/etc. Will leave me with P Mahomes, C Newton and L Jackson for the 2nd half of the season.
 
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I already plan to trade out Jefferson to Fulgham.
But OUT JuJu - IN Claypool, is it a wasted trade? :unsure:
(Claypool is only $670K less than JuJu, but Claypool has a BE -29, so will make money and has a high ceiling).

Extract from the article below:
.........The path to upside is tougher for JuJu Smith-Schuster. As mentioned, both Claypool and Johnson have multiple games with at least two deep targets. Smith-Schuster has two deep targets the entire season. He hasn't topped 69 yards yet in a game, and unless you expect his role to change, it's hard to see that outlook getting brighter.........

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news...otball-sannes-situations-to-monitor-in-week-6
The Arrival of Chase Claypool
There were a couple of factors that led to Chase Claypool's big game. He had big efficiency, and at least some of his volume was thanks to Diontae Johnson's injury. Neither of those things are locks to stick going forward.

That doesn't mean Claypool goes back in the box now. (UPDATE: Johnson has since been ruled out, elevating Claypool's floor but putting a slight dent in Roethlisberger's ceiling.)

Although this isn't always the case in the NFL, past productivity can often lead to future volume. When said productivity includes dropping four tuddies on the Philadelphia Eagles, you know this guy's going to have a role moving forward. Why on earth would the Pittsburgh Steelers bottle him back up after what he did?

It's also encouraging that the Steelers acknowledged Claypool's talent. They gave him three rush attempts in Sunday's game. It's an indication they want the ball in his hands, in addition to the points you can squeeze out of a rush attempt. Both of those are valuable.

So, will Claypool see 11 targets when Johnson is healthy? Maybe not. But he might not need to in this matchup.

The opposing Cleveland Browns rank 27th against the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. They're going to have a tough time slowing down Claypool, and it's a game we should be inclined to stack. Claypool should be a part of those stacks.

This isn't to say you should write off Johnson, assuming he gets the green light to play. He had 23 targets the first two games, and he had a pair of deep targets in both Weeks 2 and 3 (despite being limited to just 19 snaps in the latter). We should just prioritize Claypool as it seems likely he'll be the one getting the hyper-valuable downfield looks between the two, but Johnson would be a potential pivot if we get clearance on his health.

The path to upside is tougher for JuJu Smith-Schuster. As mentioned, both Claypool and Johnson have multiple games with at least two deep targets. Smith-Schuster has two deep targets the entire season. He hasn't topped 69 yards yet in a game, and unless you expect his role to change, it's hard to see that outlook getting brighter.

Instead, you could consider Eric Ebron as the tertiary outlet within the offense. Ebron has at least five targets in three straight games, and among relevant options, his aDOT is second on the team behind Claypool. Ebron fills a gross position for just $5,200 and is facing a Browns defense that has already allowed at least six targets to six different tight ends this season.

In the lineups where you use Claypool, Johnson, or Ebron, Ben Roethlisberger is a viable quarterback play, even though he hasn't shown upside yet this year.

A big part of the reason for Roethlisberger's lack of a ceiling is that he isn't throwing deep. His aDOT is 6.8 overall, and you need some big run-after-the-catch action or touchdown luck to pop on that. However, Roethlisberger's aDOT is 7.4 in the two games with Claypool's snaps up, and it could inch higher if we get both Johnson and Claypool active. That's enough to justify taking a swing at Roethlisberger in the ideal script for a quarterback in DFS.
 
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Ideally turning Burrow into L Jackson for around or less than $5 million before the Kansas City bye via a downgrade of Gano to a kicker loophole and a downgrade of J Taylor/DST/etc. Will leave me with P Mahomes, C Newton and L Jackson for the 2nd half of the season.
Lamar Jackson's Decreased Rushing Volume
There's no doubt that Lamar Jackson is running less this year. His rush attempts per game are down 3.5 from last year, and it has led to 32.8 fewer yards per game.
We just have to decide if that's reason enough to avoid him this week against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Part of the issue is that the Baltimore Ravens haven't been in many competitive games. For the entire season, the Ravens have run just 74 plays in the second half in which the game was within 14 points. For comparison, the Kansas City Chiefs have run 120 such plays. The Jets are the only other team yet to have their bye who have run fewer than 80 such plays. That means fewer passing chances for Jackson and less incentive for him to make plays with his legs.
 
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Lamar Jackson's Decreased Rushing Volume
There's no doubt that Lamar Jackson is running less this year. His rush attempts per game are down 3.5 from last year, and it has led to 32.8 fewer yards per game.
We just have to decide if that's reason enough to avoid him this week against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Part of the issue is that the Baltimore Ravens haven't been in many competitive games. For the entire season, the Ravens have run just 74 plays in the second half in which the game was within 14 points. For comparison, the Kansas City Chiefs have run 120 such plays. The Jets are the only other team yet to have their bye who have run fewer than 80 such plays. That means fewer passing chances for Jackson and less incentive for him to make plays with his legs.
That stat about 3.5 less rush attempts this year is a little mis-leading. Factor out week 5 when he played injured and he avrages 9.75 per game - but that is still down on his 11.73 from last season.
Pre-season Harbaugh did say that he wanted Jackson to be more of a passer, less of a runner.
I started with Jackson because all the talk pre-season was of him having improved, again, on the previous season. I realised that he might rush less but I didn't think it would matter so much. I thought that natural development, entering his 3rd season, would compensate.
I guess I was wrong.
 
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I already plan to trade out Jefferson to Fulgham.
But OUT JuJu - IN Claypool, is it a wasted trade? :unsure:
(Claypool is only $670K less than JuJu, but Claypool has a BE -29, so will make money and has a high ceiling).

Extract from the article below:
.........The path to upside is tougher for JuJu Smith-Schuster. As mentioned, both Claypool and Johnson have multiple games with at least two deep targets. Smith-Schuster has two deep targets the entire season. He hasn't topped 69 yards yet in a game, and unless you expect his role to change, it's hard to see that outlook getting brighter.........

https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news...otball-sannes-situations-to-monitor-in-week-6
The Arrival of Chase Claypool
There were a couple of factors that led to Chase Claypool's big game. He had big efficiency, and at least some of his volume was thanks to Diontae Johnson's injury. Neither of those things are locks to stick going forward.

That doesn't mean Claypool goes back in the box now. (UPDATE: Johnson has since been ruled out, elevating Claypool's floor but putting a slight dent in Roethlisberger's ceiling.)

Although this isn't always the case in the NFL, past productivity can often lead to future volume. When said productivity includes dropping four tuddies on the Philadelphia Eagles, you know this guy's going to have a role moving forward. Why on earth would the Pittsburgh Steelers bottle him back up after what he did?

It's also encouraging that the Steelers acknowledged Claypool's talent. They gave him three rush attempts in Sunday's game. It's an indication they want the ball in his hands, in addition to the points you can squeeze out of a rush attempt. Both of those are valuable.

So, will Claypool see 11 targets when Johnson is healthy? Maybe not. But he might not need to in this matchup.

The opposing Cleveland Browns rank 27th against the pass, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. They're going to have a tough time slowing down Claypool, and it's a game we should be inclined to stack. Claypool should be a part of those stacks.

This isn't to say you should write off Johnson, assuming he gets the green light to play. He had 23 targets the first two games, and he had a pair of deep targets in both Weeks 2 and 3 (despite being limited to just 19 snaps in the latter). We should just prioritize Claypool as it seems likely he'll be the one getting the hyper-valuable downfield looks between the two, but Johnson would be a potential pivot if we get clearance on his health.

The path to upside is tougher for JuJu Smith-Schuster. As mentioned, both Claypool and Johnson have multiple games with at least two deep targets. Smith-Schuster has two deep targets the entire season. He hasn't topped 69 yards yet in a game, and unless you expect his role to change, it's hard to see that outlook getting brighter.

Instead, you could consider Eric Ebron as the tertiary outlet within the offense. Ebron has at least five targets in three straight games, and among relevant options, his aDOT is second on the team behind Claypool. Ebron fills a gross position for just $5,200 and is facing a Browns defense that has already allowed at least six targets to six different tight ends this season.

In the lineups where you use Claypool, Johnson, or Ebron, Ben Roethlisberger is a viable quarterback play, even though he hasn't shown upside yet this year.

A big part of the reason for Roethlisberger's lack of a ceiling is that he isn't throwing deep. His aDOT is 6.8 overall, and you need some big run-after-the-catch action or touchdown luck to pop on that. However, Roethlisberger's aDOT is 7.4 in the two games with Claypool's snaps up, and it could inch higher if we get both Johnson and Claypool active. That's enough to justify taking a swing at Roethlisberger in the ideal script for a quarterback in DFS.
Yeah there's way too much risk for me there Bermi. Claypool scored just 5pts the week before and as you noted Johnson will be back soon. Big Ben does love the kid but I'd probably just keep JuJu for now. If he stinks it up again maybe look to upgrade him next week to Metcalf, with the money you made on Jefferson, or some other top 10 WR.
 

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Lamb sure has been one of the few bright spots for the Cowboys. It's going to be interesting to see what the Dak injury means for Cowboys WRs, TEs and maybe even Zeke going forward, now that Dalton is at the wheel, from a fantasy point of view.

It seems reasonable to downgrade the expected output of the receiving corps in particular. They are still probably going to have to throw the ball a fair bit, given how horrendous that defense is, but maybe that completion rate of 68% and 8.4 yards per attempt (both stats better than Mahomes) goes down. :unsure:
Lamb to a bye free DK Metcalf next round will be extremely enticing for those without any/many other holes to fill as well as those that own all of or 2 of T Hill, C Ridley and J Jones.
 
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