https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/vikings-fantasy-preview
https://www.rotoworld.com/article/team-previews/patriots-fantasy-preview
Minnesota Vikings:
Adam Thielen’s injury-filled 2019 led to a WR42 finish in fantasy points per game. That down year now makes Thielen a great value at his current WR13 ADP - in 2017 Thielen was the WR11 in fantasy points per game, and the WR6 in 2018. Both seasons included incredible volume and opportunity for Thielen, as he saw the ninth-most targets among wide receivers in 2017 (142), and the sixth most in 2018 (153). Projecting that type of season-long volume for a receiver is typically a mistake waiting to happen, but for Thielen it is practically expected. That 25-27% market share of team targets could jump to land him among the league leaders, like Michael Thomas, in the range of 30% due to the departure of
Stefon Diggs. And if we consider Cousins’ 444 attempts last season, that places Thielen in a projected range of 133 targets in 2020. The floor is obvious for Thielen due to massive volume, but his ceiling likely rests on his touchdown output - an area he was extraordinary in last season, scoring seven total touchdowns on just 34 combined touches.
The Vikings received the No. 22 overall pick from the Bills in exchange for
Stefon Diggs, and immediately used that selection on WR
Justin Jefferson. No pressure, rookie. Jefferson was a volume vacuum in Joe Brady’s passing offense, catching a whopping 111 of the 134 targets he received in 15 games - tying for the most catches among FBS WRs, recording the second most touchdown grabs with 18 and ranking third in the nation with 1,540 receiving yards. So how was this level of production achieved, and can it immediately be copied by the Vikings? Jefferson accumulated 870 slot snaps in 2019 and just five snaps as an outside receiver. 109 of Jefferson’s 111 receptions originated out of the slot. We love slot receivers in fantasy football, as space and opportunity can be manufactured for them… but the Vikings might be different. Minnesota utilized three receiver sets on just 25% of their snaps last season, which easily placed them last in the league, more than 10% behind the next closest team (Arizona). In order for Jefferson to hit, the Vikings either need to change their approach and incorporate more 11 personnel or Jefferson contributes as an outside receiver, an area he was asked to operate in more often in 2018 but might not be his strength. Jefferson’s current ADP in the WR5 range makes this a no-lose situation, even if he does post middling production in his first year.
The only shortcoming that has stood in the way of
Dalvin Cook and complete backfield domination is durability. He has seen the field for 29 of a possible 48 games during his three year career and has never completed a full 16-game season. ACL, hamstring, and recurring shoulder ailments are to blame. But now for the positives - Cook played in a career-high 14 regular season games last season, finishing as the overall RB2 in fantasy points per game. His number of avoided tackles (42, 12th) and average yards after contact (3.06, 26th) weren’t even among the leaders at his position - they don’t need to be, as Gary Kubiak’s system is based on vision, timing and explosion - exactly where Cook shines. As a whole, Cook captured 63% of the team’s backfield carries (250) and 60% of the backfield receptions (53) last season. He should be drafted among the top five at his position and offers RB1 overall upside if he plays an entire 16-game season.
New England Patriots:
The Patriots have finished top-seven in total pass attempts in six of the past eight seasons with OC Josh McDaniels calling plays -- ever since he returned from his failed stint as Denver’s de facto GM -- but neither he nor Belichick have ever conducted an offense with a dual-threat presence under center;
Cam Newton, 31 and left for dead on a bare-bones incentive-laden “prove it” deal, essentially becomes their bridge to another world. Newton hasn’t stayed upright since Carolina’s first eight games in 2018, eventually opting for o***eason shoulder surgery before infamously suffering a broken foot during the preseason last year, but did average 9.1 scrambles and the third-most fantasy points per game (23.7) behind
Patrick Mahomes (27.8) and
Matt Ryan (24.8) in that stretch. Any confidence Newton is healthy (and there’s nothing to suggest he isn’t after
he passed his physical) should coax fantasy players into ‘reaching’ for him as the perfect storm of a proven week-winner currently being valued among a tier of matchup-based statues (
Baker Mayfield,
Jared Goff,
Jimmy Garoppolo, etc.). Newton’s FFPC ADP as the overall QB15 includes a low-risk, high-reward incentive for those willing to put aside recency bias altogether.
Julian Edelman was peppered with 10.4 targets per game through Week 14 before closing the year with an abysmal 13/137/0 and 56.5% catch rate on 23 targets over New England’s last four contests. Recovering from shoulder surgery ahead of his age-34 season, the veteran is clearly on the wrong side of a prominent decade-long career that’s consisted of 9.0 targets per game and 7.0 yards per target since 2013. Engulfed in an unfamiliar situation with fewer helpings for more mouths to feast, Edelman is a player I’ll continue comfortably avoiding at his overall WR34 ADP well into the summer.
Patriots got a total of 220 snaps (19%) from No. 32 overall pick N’Keal Harry (6’2/228) after he was out-played by UDFA
Jakobi Meyers in the preseason then opened the year on injured reserve with ankle, toe, and hamstring ailments. Whether it was injury-related or simply due to a lack of development, Harry’s underwhelming 4.38 yards per target were the fourth-lowest mark among 92 qualifiers who saw 20-plus targets as first-round prospects since the statistic was charted in 1992. Currently sandwiched between
DeSean Jackson and
Sammy Watkins as the overall WR57, fantasy players are forced to blindly buy into the 22-year-old’s Day 1 capital despite his lack of separation skills in both the Pac-12 and hampered first year. He’s still considered an o***eason “winner” and late-round dart with upside since the team failed to add any significant competition at his position.