Discussion 2021 NFL RDT Dream Team Discussion

Connoisseur

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#21
I believe he will be even slightly cheaper next season and in a hot new Wentz offensive scheme. What could go wrong? :unsure:

Also A.J. Green will be dirt cheap and will now have Kyler throwing to him at the Cards. :devilish:

So looking forward to seeing your 2021 WR line-up in the preseason. I have no doubt it will be interesting AF. :giggle:
Average of 29.5 in his last 6 matches means he should be priced the same as Michael Thomas (Hilton 17.8 avg VS Thomas 17.9) around $7.5 to 8 million.

M Thomas, D Adams and AJ Brown will likely be my first 3 players picked in the position and unfortunately it seems like I will not be able to find room for TY. :cry:
 

KLo30

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#22
Average of 29.5 in his last 6 matches means he should be priced the same as Michael Thomas (Hilton 17.8 avg VS Thomas 17.9) around $7.5 to 8 million.

M Thomas, D Adams and AJ Brown will likely be my first 3 players picked in the position and unfortunately it seems like I will not be able to find room for TY. :cry:
I'll be waiting to see who is throwing the rock to these guys before committing to starting them.

Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston. Aaron Rodgers or Blake Bortles.
 
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#23
Average of 29.5 in his last 6 matches means he should be priced the same as Michael Thomas (Hilton 17.8 avg VS Thomas 17.9) around $7.5 to 8 million.

M Thomas, D Adams and AJ Brown will likely be my first 3 players picked in the position and unfortunately it seems like I will not be able to find room for TY. :cry:
He started at $8.5M last season and sank all the way to just $4M (i.e. rookie priced) after Week 11 before finally getting his game going. As you say it would be hard to select him over CantGuardMike for a similar investment.

There are going to be quite a few bargain buys next season ... at least on paper.
 

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#39

As the New York Giants open mandatory minicamp, their star running back is notably absent. Coach Joe Judge has made it clear that Saquon Barkley is, in fact, very much present at the facility but his time is currently dedicated to rehabbing his knee. Barkley was not expected to participate in football activities at this juncture; after all, he is just seven months removed from surgical reconstruction of his ACL along with a repair of the medial meniscus in his right knee. He is focused on his rehab efforts with an eye on returning to the fold at some point during training camp.

For those who might be thinking, "He was injured in Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season -- that was nine months ago, not seven," well, that's true. But due to the nature of his injury -- which also included damage to the medial collateral ligament (MCL) -- surgery was delayed approximately six weeks. This is not uncommon when there is a tear of the MCL, the ligament that reinforces the inner aspect of the knee and is critical for medial stability. The reason? The anatomy of the MCL and the common pattern of injury is such that it can often heal with time without the need for surgical repair. Allowing for this prior to initiating the reconstructive surgery assists with the overall recovery parameters.

The good news is that preserving the meniscus in turn helps to preserve the health of the knee joint. There is scientific evidence that cartilage breakdown is accelerated when the meniscus (a fibrocartilage disc, of which there are two in each knee, one on the medial aspect of the joint, one on the lateral aspect) is removed, resulting in increased bone-on-bone contact. Consequently, when meniscal repair is possible (something that is determined based on the location, size and pattern of the injury) it is preferred and can quite literally extend the career of the athlete. The challenge following meniscal repair is that it requires limiting range of motion and loading of the joint for several weeks post-surgery. In other words, it slows the entire recovery process in the early phases.

This is not to say the athlete can't "catch up" over the course of several months, but these early limitations can result in motion and strength deficits that must be fully addressed prior to resuming higher level, sports-specific activities.

When will Barkley return to pre-injury form?

Barkley's injury is a reminder that not all ACL injuries are identical. An isolated ACL tear, for instance, allows an athlete to progress more quickly through certain elements of rehab than a complex multiligament tear involving additional structures, such as, in his case, the medial meniscus.

Then there are the demands of the position. An explosive, physical runner like Barkley, whose style of play is predicated on breaking tackles and moving through opponents, requires him to be at peak strength to be effective. It can take additional time beyond returning to sport for an athlete to regain both the confidence in the surgical knee and the functional strength necessary to achieve pre-injury performance metrics.

In fact, past studies that have looked at performance metrics for NFL players undergoing ACL reconstruction have found a return to pre-injury form is often delayed by a season. It may not be until the second year post-surgery that athletes began to produce like their pre-injury selves in terms of yardage gained and touchdowns scored, data that matters in both real and fantasy football. A recent descriptive epidemiologic study published in the Orthopedic Journal of Sports Medicine looked specifically at performance metrics for NFL running backs and wide receivers post-ACL reconstruction and found receivers to have the most significant drops in performance data. However, while the data for running backs post-injury was not statistically significant in two of the three performance categories (rushes per game and rushing touchdowns per season), the production numbers did trend downward. In the third category, yards per rush, there was a statistically significant difference in the first two seasons post-ACL reconstruction.

It is worth noting that this study looked only at rushing performance metrics in the target group; many running backs nowadays have pass-catching responsibilities that enhance their productivity and their value. It is also important to note that there was no accounting for concomitant injury (such as meniscal injury), which could impact the results, there are no measures that take into account style of play (power back vs. finesse), or no accounting for depth chart status. While the results are interesting and provide some level of insight into initial post-op performance, the individual nature of an athlete's skill set, relevance to the team (is he a focus of the offense with a high individual workload or is he a second-tier member of a running back committee?) and the athlete's particular injury details are among the variables that can influence both the timing and level of an athlete's return to performance.

Fantasy expectations for 2021
So what are fantasy managers to do when it comes to evaluating Barkley's value entering the 2021 season? For starters, expect there to be increased confidence in making that assessment as it gets closer to the start of the season. Without any on-field work to go by at this point, most are operating under the assumption that Barkley will be ready to go by Week 1, and the Giants haven't specifically said anything to the contrary. But the team has also provided reasons to be cautious. Judge has already stated during minicamp that they will be smart with him and do what is best for his body. "We are going to make sure that we take Saquon's rehab at the correct rate for his individual body and injury," Judge said Tuesday. "It's not any mirror of anybody else's injury out there. We have to make sure that we let him get it at his pace and put him on the field [when he] can play 100% aggressive and confident and he's going to play safe and he can play effective."

Even Barkley acknowledged an open-ended timeline. "I have no expectation, no set day when I'm going to be full-go," Barkley said. "I'm going to come into work every single day because that's all I know." The takeaway here is that while the team may still be looking toward the start of the season, it is also strongly hinting at the probability that Barkley will not be receiving his normal workload out of the gate. This is good news for Barkley's health and future career, but it may mean a delayed return on investment for fantasy purposes. How long it takes for him to ramp up to what would position him as a top-tier running back will depend on how he responds to that initial workload. Too much work too soon can result in a setback, whether it be with the surgically reconstructed knee or a compensatory soft tissue injury elsewhere (See: Cook, Dalvin, in 2018).

The questions for fantasy managers become: At what position are you willing to draft Barkley in your season-long league, assuming he will be operating under a controlled workload to start the season? Will his performance metrics when he is on the field reflect what they have been in the past? Based on the limited data that has been compiled on this topic to date, the expectation is that it will take time playing in actual game conditions for Barkley to return to his pre-injury form. When -- or even if -- that happens during this first post-op season remains to be seen.
 
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