Oops, I Did It Again - A Diabolical Journey To The BBL|12 SuperCoach Summit

[Diabolical]

“Oops, I did it again.” Never in my wildest dreams did I think that I would be quoting and therefore linking Britney Spears to Supercoach! Those dreams may have included winning BBL (or AFL) Supercoach one day, but certainly not twice. My biggest fear this year was falling victim to second year blues and dropping off significantly due to being over cocky, or perhaps the reality that last year just came down to the perfect alignment of luck that was never likely to happen again.

There are several coaches on this site who could be sitting here writing their journey this year instead of me. To have four coaches from the Supercoachscores group finish in the top 10, seven in the top 25 and 21 in the top 100 is testament to how knowledgeable this site is. There are many more who didn’t have things go their way this year who would normally be up there too. A good batting innings or extra wicket to a bowler here or there is all that separated us all in the end. Those of us at the pointy end would have all navigated the season differently. I am sharing my journey through the season which worked for me this year, but it is no more significant than those other journeys that could have easily led to ultimate success if an important catch was, or wasn’t, taken.

I shared my story last year which was all about navigating the ever-changing fixture with Covid-19 causing matches to be cancelled, moved, or teams having to play with severely decimated line ups. These issues meant that preseason planning had to be thrown out the window whilst we continually adapted to the everchanging circumstances as the season unfolded. We also had extra trades handed to us in recognition of the chaos caused, which saw us see out the final rounds using the luxury of having five trades each round. With so many trades and four teams having a double game round (DGR) in the final round, the season was perfectly set up for some inventive sod to create the perfect point of difference (POD) team to come from nowhere and steal a win.

This year felt much calmer, and I was able to stick to my plan right from the beginning. I took the same approach as I do each year which is loosely based around;

• focusing on the fixture and making decisions according to the DGR, single game round (SGR) and bye schedule.
• determining which players have good point scoring roles and getting them into our teams as soon as practical.
• playing a breakeven game early, which means both bringing low breakeven players in and getting high breakeven players out of our teams quickly. The only change to this is that the fixture or player role may override this requirement at times, however, the quicker we generate cash, the greater the benefit we gain through having freedom with team selection.
• playing a POD game later, which doesn’t always mean going for lower ownership players when weighing up two options. It is about balancing the number of PODs that we have, so sometimes it will be about creating them to the teams around us and other times about closing them off. Just one or two PODs could make 100 points difference. The more PODs that we have could help to make up more ground, but it also means that there is more chance of the benefit reducing because some will succeed whilst others won’t. This can also be detrimental with the chance of success more likely if we just run with fewer PODs. The key to this is making sure when we do open PODs that they have the same, or better, point scoring role compared to the player we are betting against.
• not getting blinded by player names and keeping the focus on their role. A player with a good name has the same opportunity to score as a lesser known player who may have a better role in their team. Sometimes a player with a poor role, such as batting at number 6 and not bowling for example, jags a big score and we can get fooled into bringing them into our team. Whilst form can’t be ignored, the odds are low that it will happen again and high that they will score poorly once we do bring them in because their role does not provide good scoring opportunity.
• maximising flexibility to take advantage of each round unfolding. Setting up loops to look at vice captain scores or compare emergency scores before working out which one to take can assist with avoiding some, but not all, low scores.
• enjoying the experience and not getting deflated when things don’t go our way. BBL Supercoach is a fast-moving game, so we just need to pick ourselves up and move on by keeping to our game plan. This is counterbalanced by not getting too cocky when things do go our way and therefore forgetting our gameplan and starting to change what we were initially setting out to do.

I have seen many times people saying that BBL Supercoach is so frustrating because it all comes down to luck. However, when I look at the overall leaderboard, many of those coaches in the top 100 are there year after year. It is more unusual to see when some of those coaches don’t appear near the top for some reason. Whilst there is an element of luck that is definitely needed to win, this game is about playing the percentages and coaches who take a more balanced approach to risk seem to repeatedly do well.

 

[Diabolical]

Pre-Season​

As the famous old saying goes, “failing to plan is planning to fail.” I start every preseason by studying the fixture before I even look at players. The first thing that I try to do is work out what is the maximum number of DGR scoring players that is possible for the season. I find this a handy starting point for drafting up a team. The information means that I can determine the break up of the starting team knowing that if I make any changes, I will be reducing my ability to achieve the maximum number of DGR scores. I find that this helps me to justify decisions when I want to move away from maximising score involvements. A team with 11 SGR players only has 12 score involvements (each player plus captain score) whilst a team with 11 DGR players has 24 score involvements, so we need to be comparing each player’s likely single score versus another player’s likely two game score.

This year’s fixture allowed for a maximum of 74 DGR players plus an extra three given the trade boost feature. The fixture this year also could be broken up into three phases, where each phase had virtually no impact on the other phases. Phase 1 (R1-5) could achieve a maximum of 37 DGR players plus boosts used. However, to achieve this we would have needed to start eight Sydney Thunder players and have had no Hobart Hurricanes in our starting team. It also meant having a maximum of three players from the Adelaide Strikers and Melbourne Stars combined in our starting team and trading them all out in R2. Phase 2 (R6-9) could achieve a maximum of 19 DGR players, or 20 if we use a boost. To achieve this, we would have needed to have no Brisbane Heat, Melbourne Renegades or Sydney Thunder players left in our teams after we made our R8 trades. Phase 3 (R10-13) could also achieve the same maximum as Phase 2. To achieve this we would need to have removed all Adelaide Strikers, Melbourne Renegades, Melbourne Stars and Sydney Sixers from our teams after trades in R12. We would have also needed to continue to fade Sydney Thunder players.

The table below shows the fixture with the dark grey meaning that we didn’t want players from that team during that phase if we wanted to maximise DGR score involvements. The light grey indicates that we wanted to be reducing our exposure to players from those teams during those rounds.

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The neat nature of the three phases due to the fixture also helped me decide my plan of attack for the season. During Phase 1 I was going to focus on playing a strong breakeven game to try and build my bank as quickly as possible. However, I needed to be careful that I didn’t lose focus of player role and the DGR fixture when doing this. My goal was to try and have a team value of $2.5 million by the end of Phase 1. This is a figure that I have found has enabled me in previous years to get most elite players without having to make compromise due to budget. During Phase 2 my plan was to transition my focus to having the best available scorers on field. This required keeping an eye on player role and worrying less about breakevens if my team value stayed above $2.5 million. My approach to Phase 3 was going to depend on where I was situated in comparison to other coaches. If I was right up at the pointy end, I would try and continue to just field the best scoring players. If I needed to catch up, I would start to look for PODs to change my team up compared to other teams around me. The one rule that I would have to stick to is that if I am going to run with a POD, that player would have to have the same role or better than the player I was going to bet against.

As with last year, I figured if I could keep my average per score involvement (PSI) around the magic 55 number and run a decent number of DGR players, I should be able to easily keep myself in the top 100 mix. However, the need to start so many Thunder players, was going to challenge my previous season’s plan of not having more than 7 players from any game.

My plan was in place and it was time to start looking at players and work out likely roles within their teams. Whilst I knew who had been performing in the Sheffield Shield and Domestic One Day competitions, I wasn’t going to get too set on players until the final XIs were announced for each game. Confidence in batting order, likely number of overs each player bowls and who gets the death overs will be the key to success.

It was time for the games to begin!

 

[Diabolical]

Round 1​

I always find Round 1 (R1) difficult because I am not confident with how teams are going to set up. Historically I do not have a good record in R1, but this year I decided that I would play the DGR game. I set up many drafts with 8 Thunder players so that I could continue to be on track to maximise DGR players, which could set me up with a good advantage if I did happen to get off to a flyer. In the end, I decided to run with seven just to give me a little flex if things went pear shaped. It also meant that I could run with a total of four players from the Stars and Strikers, so had breathing room to keep one if I chose. I also decided that I would fade Hurricanes because of the fixture.

Given that bowlers take more of the points pie than batters, Hales and Gilkes (apart from Inglis who I could use as a loop) were the only two players who I started who weren’t likely to bowl. I wasn’t confident that Jason Sangha would bowl, but I chose him due to FOMO if he did get an opportunity to turn his arm over. I also decided that I would just field all DGR players except for the wicketkeeper so that I had a captain loop.

Sams putting up a decent 66 in the first game of the season meant that I was prepared to play a loop to get his VC score. I decided to use Renshaw as the loop in the hope that he would be available for R3 after the birth of his baby.

Webster and Sutherland were the two cheapies that I decided to start in my squad due to their good all-round form this domestic season. I particularly liked how Webster had been bowling a combination of medium pace and spin, which I thought would bode well for him getting overs in T20.

A miserable 15 all out in game 2 from the Thunder, which saw a miserly 10 points from Gilkes across two games and a Covid induced donut return from Stoinis two ducks in two games, did not give me the start that I was hoping for! However, I was always looking at R1-5 as a block, so I wasn’t going to let my disappointing start worry me. Despite a couple of poor scores, an average score per involvement of almost 50 meant that I wasn’t too far behind even though 382 points felt like a lot in one round. The number 1 ranked team only playing 4 Thunder players also gave me some hope that I could catch up.

The tables below show my team set up for each round. My on field 11 are shaded green, with my captain in orange and vice captain in blue. Bench players are shaded purple if they were set as an emergency or grey. The score column shows the scores that were taken in green or orange or blue for the doubled captain score taken. Scores that did not contribute to my total are shaded grey. Players who had a DGR are bolded. The summary section shows my team stats for the round and season to date. The trades section shows my traded in players each round in green, and players traded out in red. Naturally there were no trades in R1.

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Round 2​

After just one round I had my first challenge of the season. What was I going to do to address the poor Thunder showing when I had loaded up so heavily on them? I decided that I needed to play a long game and give up some points this round in the hope of a longer term gain. I chose to let Sangha go due to his high price and breakeven. Given this was a change of plan trade, I needed to make sure that whatever I did would make up for him having a DGR. I decided to go with Shadab despite the non DGR friendly Hurricanes draw. In the first game he was batting top 4 and bowling 4 overs, a combination which makes him Supercoach gold and I usually will move heaven and earth to get those players into my team. The bowling also meant that he had a better role than Sangha as he wasn’t looking likely to bowl, or only bowl one or two overs at most. After thinking it through, Shadab’s R5 bye was also going to be a benefit to give me a donut so that I could play a loop that round. Sangha getting injured after I traded him out in the first game of R2 was the first lucky break that I got this year.

For my next trade, I had to also deal with Stoinis. I decided that Agar was the most like for like option as a middle order bat who will bowl, but his DGR ensured that it was a positive trade. My final trade was a difficult one due to letting Rashid go. Hosein had had a big first game which meant that he would have a low breakeven. With a double to come in R5, I decided that he was the most like for like replacement for Rashid who could give me a leg up to get back into this first 5 round phase.

Alas, I ended up scoring similarly to R1, which was a solid score, but not great. Despite my distance behind the leader almost doubling, I felt that keeping around 50 points per score involvement meant that I wasn’t as far behind as the raw figures appeared to suggest. However, I was still over 200 points behind where I would like to be if I could maintain a 55 points per score involvement average.

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[Diabolical]

Round 3​

With Brisbane Heat playing first I decided to go all in on their players for the DGR. I decided to risk using a boost because only having 4 Heat players felt a bit light when I really needed to stop the backward slide from the competition leader. I was comfortable with using a boost because I felt that I could use one in each phase and this felt like the best time to use one during the first phase given I also needed to get Sydney Thunder players out of my team due to their bye. Whilst locking in my four ins, I still had flexibility with who I traded out as the round unfolded thanks to the new trade update function.

I decided to put the E on Hosein and Sutherland given they were SGR players playing in the first game of the round so that I could decide my outs after that game. Whilst Sutherland failed, Hosain put up a three digit score, so I was going to need to keep a non playing bowler to loop his score. Steketee was my VC and he scored 73 in the first game of his double, so I decided that I would loop that score as C also. I used Renshaw as the donut to get the scores as he was likely to be back next round. Naveed was a surprise out in the second game of the round, but I decided to keep him on my bench given the Sixers double in R5. I decided to keep Hales in my squad due to his low BE and chose to trade out Agar instead, even though he was playing, as he was not needed again until late in Phase 2.

The round ended up being a huge one for me thanks to three SGR players hitting triple figures. I had an average PSI of 68 which brought my season average to the target goal of 55. I managed to rank inside the top 50 for the round and reduced the gap to the leader by over 170 points.

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Round 4​

This round was always going to be a nervous one for coaches, being our first round without any players with a DGR. We needed to hope that our fielded players would score OK whilst hoping we could play our loops correctly.

I decided to put the VC on Shadab Khan given he was still a bit of a POD in the competition and was playing the first game of the round. I needed to trade my Heat players out, but given they were playing the last game of the round, this gave a lot of flexibility to watch the round unfold.

Khan ended up turning it on and scored a Nelson, which is more than a satisfactory VC score. I was also happy with Sutherland’s 60 as emergency in the first game, so it was going to be easy to lock in the VC score. In the second game of the round, my bat emergency Webster pulled out a 139, so I had to change tack and forgo Sutherlands 60.

The biggest disappointment of the round was with the Thunder playing the last game, I had both Hales and Gilkes on my bench and was unable to take their triple figure scores! However, with the round netting me 68 psi and chipping almost 100 points off the leader’s advantage, I was happy, or perhaps more relieved with how the round ended.

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Round 5​

I was really looking forward to this round because my Phase 1 planning of the fixture meant that I was going to have many more players on the double than most. Those who kept their focus on the first three rounds were sure to be found out this round!

I was all set to field 8 DGR players knowing most would have 5 or 6 unless they wasted a boost. Then the first strike from the SC Gods hit – Naveed, who was a surprise omission two rounds ago, then kept out last round, didn’t make the XI again. My planned DGR attack was down to 7.

To rub salt into the wound, my VC Hossein, scored just 25 in the first game of his double. Due to both DGR teams playing each other twice this round, I needed to decide if I take his score or run with an SGR captain. Fortunately, I decided to give him another chance and he scored 75 in his second game which gave him an acceptable C score even if I had four players in my team who scored more.

Whilst I thought that I might climb the ranks this round due to my holistic approach to the first 5 rounds, I ended up slipping slightly. Rule 1 of SC – never think that you have this game beaten!

Despite the disappointment due to my high expectations, I felt that my plan to attack the DGR fixture was working. I was really pleased that I had managed to get my team value to almost $2.6m, which was ahead of my goal for this stage. With only one coach ahead of me with a team value larger than mine, and only marginally higher, I felt confident that I could make up some more ground during Phase 2 of the fixture.

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[Diabolical]

Round 6​

With all coaches back on an even footing to start navigating Phase 2 of the fixture, it was time to try and get through these middle rounds without doing anything too fancy. The next two rounds had no DGRs so I needed to focus on getting Brisbane Heat, Melbourne Renegades and Sydney Thunder players out of my team whilst bringing players from the other teams in.

I looped Hales and Gilkes off the bench and with Hales putting up a three-digit score and all of my players playing this round, I needed to bring in a donut to get his score. I settled on bringing Renshaw back in as he was with the test squad but not playing, so I figured that he was likely to be released soon. Given that he was likely to bat high up the order, had DPP flexibility and was a chance to get an over here and there, he seemed like the best option of the non-playing players available.

Shadab Khan injuring his hand was unfortunate, but it ended up being a good round, maintaining my 55 PSI average and knocking a few more points off the distance to the leader.

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Round 7​

Like the previous round, we had no DGR games, so I needed to continue my phase 2 approach of trading my Heat, Renegades and Thunder players out. However, I needed to deal with Shadab Khan’s injury and his return to Pakistan, so I decided to keep Renshaw given his donut value and likelihood to play soon.

It ended up being a very poor round with only one player passing 50, averaging 33 points PSI and ranking almost 20k. However, despite a drop in rank, I somehow managed to slightly close the gap on first and was now less than 400 points behind. It was just one of those rounds where I had to forget about it, move on and continue to back in my forward planning.

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Round 8​

This round was my final chance to get Heat, Thunder and Renegades players out of my team if I wanted to maximise DGR opportunity during Phase 2 of the fixture. Given that I didn’t want to use a boost, I was going to have to keep one player from those teams. Matthew Short, who I had as emergency on my bench, going huge in the first game of the round made the decision easy. I kept Renshaw for his current donut value to access Short’s score.

Ashraf was my VC, and after he scored 0 in his first game of the double, that also gave me an easy decision to punt on Abbott as captain. This ended up being very fortunate given he ended up scoring 194 points for the round, which I got doubled.

My second top 100 round ranking for the season saw me jump 50 places, up to 13 overall. Ranking so high with an average points PSI of 54 for the season had me thinking that the magic 55 figure was going to hold up again.

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Round 9​

This was the final round of phase 2 of the fixture and I decided to use my second boost to maximise players on a DGR. I was quietly hoping that with 9 players with a DGR that I would make up some more ground on the leader. However, the previous time I felt this confident was in R5, and things didn’t quite go to plan then, so I was trying not to get too far ahead of myself.

Sure enough, as soon as I feel like I have this game beaten, the SC gods put me back in my place. New recruit De Grandhomme ended up becoming an SGR player after getting injured and missing his second game of his DGR!

Whilst the round didn’t end up being too bad because I held rank, I did manage to lose almost 100 points on the leader. However, this was the end of Phase 2, and we were all once again on even footing moving into the final run home.

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[Diabolical]

Round 10​

This round marked the start of phase 3 where the focus became about bringing in Hurricanes, Heat and Scorchers, who were the only teams left with DGRs. However, to get there, we also needed to navigate the next two rounds with no DGRs or byes. I decided that I would spread my ins this round from across the teams so that I could maximise flexibility in my team as the round unfolded.

With Clarke scoring 99 in game 2 on my WK bench, I needed to alter plans and move Inglis to the batting line and brought in Tim Paine as my WK donut. If by some miracle he got a game late in the season, at least he could have some value with the Hurricanes having a DGR in the final round.

With a points PSI of 53 I managed to shave 160 points off the gap to the leader and moved into the top 10 for the first time this season.

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Round 11​

This was the final SGR only round of the season and it couldn’t have started any better with Renshaw going BANG and scoring 147 as my bowling emergency. The only issue with this was that Paine was my only donut and he was no use as a bowling donut, so I traded him to Shadab Khan, who was a chance to come back for the final rounds.

With five players hitting triple figures, including my captain Short, it was a huge round where I ended up jumping up to second overall and reduced the gap to the leader to 207 points. This is when I started to think that I was in with a real shot at defending my title.

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Round 12​

I had to think long and hard about how to attack this round. I still had one boost left, so needed to think if it was better off spent this round or next. My team was in pretty good shape with 7 DGR players from Brisbane and Perth before trades, so I felt that I could hold the boost until the last round. I also decided to only bring in one DGR player so that I could field 8 for the round, and whilst there was a risk because I could have gone heavier, I wanted to maximise my flexibility in the final round. I decided to bring in Coulter-Nile and Webster because the Stars were playing the final game of R13. Due to the Scorchers bye that round, I wanted final game flexibility, where I could loop scores, play safe, or throw caution to the wind depending on where I was sitting leading into that last match.

Whilst R12 ended up being a low scoring round and I dropped a position from second to third, I was very happy as I had managed to close the gap on first by 149 points, leaving just 58 points between us. This felt much more manageable than the 363 points I had to chase down in the final round last year.

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[Diabolical]

Round 13​

The final round arrived, and here we go again as I try to perfect my timing to take the lead in the competition. I have only ever led the competition for one week previously, and that was the final round last year. Our current leader, SCS’ own @The Banker had admirably led the competition for the past 5 rounds, which is 4 more than I have ever led SC for. Surely, I wasn’t going to steal another final day, come from behind, win. He deserved ultimate success after his consistently strong showing this season.

I had one option given that I only had one DGR player in my team, and that was to use my final boost to go all in on Hurricanes. Given that my deficit was just 58, I didn’t feel that I needed to create too many PODs. I also felt that my decision in the previous round to set my team up to give maximum flexibility in the final match, would not only help if I needed to catch up, but if I got an early round lead I could also try use it to fend off others.

I decided that I needed to try and take a risk with my captain and one other player, and I would use my remaining trades to close off more popular options. Both coaches ahead of me had Jewell and I decided that is where I would make my move and take a punt given his recent form wasn’t outstanding. Going back to my rules that say if I am going to take on a player, I need to do so with a player who has a similar or better role, I decided to run with Jewell’s top 3 teammate in Crawley. My thinking was that the top two teams wouldn’t trade him in given the amount of top order Hurricanes they already had in their team. As for captain, I decided to run with David, hoping that he might get a bowl. I thought that most people would be putting the C on Ellis or Meredith.

As it turns out, the Crawley decision gained me 91 points. However, captaining David over Ellis, cost me 66 points. That 25 point gain was not what won me the competition. The deciding factor was Ashraf, who had been quietly sitting in my team since R7. His scoring had been solid, but he hadn’t brought a lot of attention to make him a trade priority for others, and his final round 125 proved to be one of the big differences in the end. Also, with four Heat players on my bench, I was lucky enough to include Neser as one of the two who I put the E on. My flexibility meant that I could keep Hardie instead of Coulter-Nile for the final match so that I could access Neser’s score. There are many decisions that need to go our way if we are to snare ultimate success, and once again I was fortunate with the timing of some of my late decisions thanks to keeping my flexibility and options open right up until the last game.

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Final thoughts​

There is no doubt that it was a thrill to defend my BBL crown and I hope that sharing my story will inspire you to take some snippets to add to your own strategy and it helps you realise your dream for success. All of the teams who finished high had different approaches and given the top 10 were all within 300 points at the season’s end, it demonstrates that there is no one correct way to play this game.

Once again, the 55 points PSI combined with attacking the DGR fixture hard has held up. I like to think that setting my team up each round to enable maximum flexibility to get the benefit from loops or make late player changes as the round unfolds has helped with achieving this. It also means that we can’t just be looking at DGR numbers and bringing in any player just because he has a double. We need the quality players with good roles, so we also need to be prepared to trade good players out who may not have a great fixture coming up so that we can afford to get those quality DGR players in. Building team value quickly helps immensely, but I feel that sometimes we become too attached to the big names and get scared of trading them out. It is a game of chance after all, so sometimes we hit and sometimes we miss, but we just need to keep playing the percentages as best we can.

 

[Sideshow Bob]

Great read mate, still blows my mind how you achieved that with the entire comp able to see your every move, wonderful

 

[The Banker]

This will be my weekend reading in between a tinny or 2.

Interested in watching the attempt at the coveted 3 peat.

Well done again mate 👏

 

[Young gun]

Thanks so much for this and congrats. Just a couple of quick questions. How did you prepare for potential rain affected games and what were your best and worst 50/50 decisions you made?

 

[Diabolical]

Thanks so much for this and congrats. Just a couple of quick questions. How did you prepare for potential rain affected games and what were your best and worst 50/50 decisions you made?

Thanks YG. I think that my approach of focusing on a group of rounds at a time helps when I am concerned about weather. Flexibility can’t be underestimated. I just shift my focus to bringing in players from teams with a good upcoming schedule whose games are not looking like being washed out in the current round. I will also try and keep some flexibility through either looping players who could be impacted off my bench or use those players as sacrifices to move to the bench if I have other good loop scores. I may even lower a loop score expectation on what score I would happily take.

Whilst we worry a lot about weather, not many games end up being affected. I think those rounds where a number of games have “dark clouds” hanging over them are the ones where we really want to try and delay decision making until we have maximum information - so once again, try and stay flexible.

I don’t tend to dwell on 50/50 decisions. Most rounds I am considering a number of options. So someone I was considering nearly always outscores who I trade in or field, but on the flip side, others I was considering fail … we just don’t tend to remember those ones! We just need to accept that this is a volatile scoring game and we will win some calls and lose some. So long as we keep our long term view, those things tend to iron out in the end if we focus on players with good scoring roles. When we take a short term view - eg only wanting a player for one round or playing final round catch up, we know that we are risking a low score in the hope of a high one (this is particularly the case with bat only players or bowlers who bat at the end of the tail). Smart decisions will pay off over time, but if we want a quick result we are really just hoping for the best.

For the sake of the exercise, the main one that I remember was being annoyed at not taking Behrendorff for his double in R2 when he was a popular target. I know that I took Agar instead, who didn’t perform well in comparison, but I can’t recall how that decision affected my other trades that round. Shadab and Hosein ended up being good picks, so overall the regret may not be justified.