Perfect SuperCoach

IDIG

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Essendon
#42
I have another article that should come out later this week that looks at if a ghost team (a team made at the start of the season and then completely forgotten about) could have won the entire season, i.e., no trades, same positions, same captains, same emergencies etc. The results of that are pretty bloody amazing. So keep an eye out for that and I'll post the full team on this site too after the article is published.
Oh wow, I’m pumped to see this!

We ran a similar comp on here actually, where a set-n-forget team was picked and your captain/vice was set for the whole year. We only included the best 18 scores each week though but it’s pretty scary to think that it was possible to ghost ship a win (considering I finished ranked 30k! 🤦‍♂️)
 

Darkie

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Collingwood
#44
Amazing stuff, well done Steve.

Next time someone says that Danger is a lock for his capaptaincy abilities, I'll have to take that with a grain salt ... he wasn't utilised once!
 

Presto

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Hawthorn
#45
The SuperCoach ‘ghost’ team that would have finished in top 100 without a single trade
Steven Edwards, Herald Sun
32 minutes ago
Subscriber only

THERE’S at least one in every league. A SuperCoach team completely abandoned by its coach.
One that idles through the season being obliterated by everyone else in the competition. While the rest of us diligently read articles, listen to podcasts, and invest quality time at work discussing trade strategies, these “ghost” teams pose a constant and unwanted reminder that for some sad individuals, SuperCoach is not the be-all and end-all of life.
It’s a terrifying thought, but could one of these ghost teams take home the $50,000 overall prize?
In what could only be considered the SuperCoach equivalent to remembering that back in 2008 your mate convinced you to invest in bitcoin, could a team that was set up at the start of the season and then forgotten about win it all?
Zero trades used, same captain, same vice-captain, same starting positions, same emergencies, and same ignorant coach not knowing the true thrill of coaching an imaginary team of players online.
Thankfully, the answer is no. In 2018, it was not possible. But with a total score of 52,935, which would earn you 77th position in a competition with almost 200,000 teams, the best possible ghost team does get hauntingly close.
Talk about a win for humanity. To those 76 teams who outscored the ghost, the community thanks you.
See below the optimal SuperCoach ghost team for 2018.
Def: Simpson, Laird,Sicily, L. Ryan, Finlayson, Doedee.
Mid: Mitchell, Macrae, Coniglio, Curnow, O'Meara, Ellis-Yolmen, T. Kelly, Holman
Ruc: Grundy, Gawn
Fwd: Westoff, McLean, Darling, Hogan, Parfitt, Fisher
AS Steven pointed out "The team they posted is very wrong. It doesn't include emergencies, the players are wrong, it doesn't show who the captains are. " here is the correct team:
Captain Brodie Grundy
Vice Elliot Yeo
Tom Doedee $355300 - DEF
Kade Simpson $501000 - DEF
Jack Crisp $448100 - DEF
Jayden Short $381600 - DEF
Jake Lloyd $466600 - DEF
Elliot Yeo $531300 - DEF
Lachlan Murphy $153600 - Sub-DEF
Brody Mihocek $102400 - Sub-DEF (E)
Patrick Cripps $589600 - MID
Timothy Kelly $432500 - MID
Stephen Coniglio $498400 - MID
Tom Mitchell $574900 - MID
Jaeger O'Meara $416500 - MID
Angus Brayshaw $369400 - MID
Lachie Hunter $506300 - MID
Jack Macrae $676400 - MID
Jacob Dawson $102400 - Sub-MID
Nick Holman $271900 - Sub-MID (E)0***
James Bell $102400 - Sub-MID
Brodie Grundy $610200 - RUC
Max Gawn $669400 - RUC
Tom Jeffries $102400 - Sub-RUC
Devon Smith $467800 - FWD
Tom Hawkins $436200 - FWD
Luke Breust $483900 - FWD
Bayley Fritsch $310100 - FWD
Justin Westhoff $540200 - FWD
Josh Dunkley $377200 - FWD
Jack Henry $278000 - Sub-FWD (E)

Jack Higgins $273300 - Sub-FWD (E)

This team could have finished 77th overall without a single trade.
The idea that you could set this team up back in mid-March, never touch it again and come 77th is both a testament to lazy coaches and borderline offensive.
Granted, there are an alarming number of mid-priced players. In fact, there are a total of 12 players in the team with a starting value between $200,000 and $500,000. It is generally an accepted rule of thumb in SuperCoach that players in this bracket tend to be risky picks at the start of the season as it is hard to know which players will step up to become premiums in any given year.
Well and truly falling in the risky business bracket at the start of season 2018 were: Jack Crisp, Jayden Short, Lachie Hunter, Josh Dunkley and arguably Luke Breust.
Getting the bench players right was also a key to the ghost team’s success. They are not shown here but there are a number of occasions when an emergency will have a high score just when required. For example, Jaeger O’Meara did not play in Round 9, which allowed Nick Holman’s 122 points from the bench to count as emergency. Very smooth.
Just as in the Optimal SuperCoach team this year we see Max Gawn, Brodie Grundy and a rookie make up the rucks. The benefit of having such reliable stock in the rucks is that one of the four emergency positions is not required for this position.
Two emergency players in the forward line is potentially reckless considering that if only one emergency is required, then the lower point scorer of the two counts. But for this team, it’s a strategy that pays off. In Round 5, Tom Hawkins and Bayley Frisch both do not play, which means both Jack Henry’s 48 and Jack Higgins’ 91 are counted. Likewise in Round 10 with Justin Westhoff and Josh Dunkley not playing, Higgins’ 51 and Henry’s 99 are both counted. Very satisfying to see.
Grundy being made captain makes sense. He did after all finish as the highest pointscorer in the game. Elliot Yeo as vice-captain is a little surprising given he finished as the 10th highest-point scorer for the season. The reason for this is that during Grundy’s bye in Round 13, which was the only game he missed for the season, Yeo scored a team-high 144 points.
As with the Optimal SuperCoach Team article, I used Mixed-Integer Programming to run this analysis. It is almost like this entire field of mathematics was accidentally designed to answer hypothetical questions for fantasy football in hindsight.
So for those of you who made a beautiful team at the start of the year and proceeded to neglect it all its life, there is still hope you won’t be a terrible coach forever. After all, 77th is not bad for kicking your heels up all year.

Steven Edwards is a PhD Candidate in the School of Mathematical Sciences at Monash University and works on large-scale optimisation problems
 
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Collingwood
#51
great article

highlights my lack of ability as a Coach , finished 16,971st yet a "hindsight" Ghost Ship team comes 77th

amazing

structure wise:

D: 2-3-3
M: 3-4-4
R: 2-0-1
F: 0-5-3

7-12-11 seems mid-price madness is the way to go (provided you pick the right ones)

Interested in why Mihocek was selected and used as E when he did not appear until Round 11 and Brayshaw did not appear until Rd4 , understand it is a set and forget team but would have thought players should be named at least to play in Round 1.

Would like to know what % of starting teams these players were in:- (maybe Thanh has this) hint hint

Short
Hunter
Brayshaw
Westhoff
Hawkins
Breust
Dunkley (think Thanh was keen on him)

can't recall much discussion about them pre-season

all in all it has changed my thinking , any chance you can select my starting team for 2019 :)

great research and article , pity HAS got it so wrong

well done

Cheers
 
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#52
It seems Mihocek wasn't required until round 12 as all of the defenders played every game before that, which means his 97 in round 11 didn't even count! Didn't notice that!

Brayshaw is interesting and again I wish I noticed this before I wrote the article. As you say, in the first three games he doesn't play which means Holman's scores of 96, 92, 82 count. Then Brayshaw plays in round 4, which means Holman's relatively bad score of 32 doesn't count. They complement each other very nicely.

I am planning to used the % of starting teams to choose BOTempelli's starting team. Essentially start with the most cookie-cutter team possible hahah.
 
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Collingwood
#53
It seems Mihocek wasn't required until round 12 as all of the defenders played every game before that, which means his 97 in round 11 didn't even count! Didn't notice that!

Brayshaw is interesting and again I wish I noticed this before I wrote the article. As you say, in the first three games he doesn't play which means Holman's scores of 96, 92, 82 count. Then Brayshaw plays in round 4, which means Holman's relatively bad score of 32 doesn't count. They complement each other very nicely.

I am planning to used the % of starting teams to choose BOTempelli's starting team. Essentially start with the most cookie-cutter team possible hahah.
Cheers mate.

No problems at all , just those 2 jumped out at me.

Yes I think I will be going cookie cutter from now on as well , seem to over complicate my thinking and seem to get worse each year I play.
 

couchPOTATO

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Hawthorn
#54
I called them and they are changing it.

In the mean time, get it here first

(I was lazy with the remaining budget so from round 4 it doesn't make sense but given no trades are being used it doesn't matter)
Great work steve.

It would be interesting to see where the team would rank for year to date overall rank after each round.

3 donuts in the bye rounds (by my count) obviously contributes a decent portion to the 900 points behind the #1 team.

Loopholing Captains scores would definitely go close to making up the difference based on a very quick review. Equally loopholing emergency scores only (instead of captains scores) with an unchanged 30 player team could probably go close to winning the $50k with 30 trades remaining.
 
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IDIG

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Essendon
#55
Hey Steve,

Thanks again for sharing some inside info with us, we're a privileged bunch here!

I had a few questions for you because i have absolutely no idea how you've been able to put this altogether.

So if i may...
1. How do you actually do it?
2. How long does it take you?
3. How did this all come about?
4. What else could this type of works be beneficial for in the 'real world' (ie. business, etc)
5. Can you put together next year's winning team for me and i'll split the $10k first prize with you :whistle::whistle:

And finally, what's the answer to this?

1536419601279.png

Just kidding, everyone knows the answer is -1, wait it's 9..no wait it's.. PEMDAS..1,000! lol
 

THCLT

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North Melb.
#58
Something along the lines of multiplication and division before addition and subtraction...those were the good old days!
 

couchPOTATO

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#59
Great work steve.

It would be interesting to see where the team would rank for year to date overall rank after each round.

3 donuts in the bye rounds (by my count) obviously contributes a decent portion to the 900 points behind the #1 team.

Loopholing Captains scores would definitely go close to making up the difference based on a very quick review. Equally loopholing emergency scores only (instead of captains scores) with an unchanged 30 player team could probably go close to winning the $50k with 30 trades remaining.
Answering my own question I just checked the weekly overall rankings for the GHOST team, they seem to have cracked the top ten 4 times (3 times before the bye)

Rd Pts Total Overall Rank
1 2413 2413 ??
2 2324 4737 ??
3 2322 7059 eq560th
4 2249 9308 eq89th
5 2196 11504 eq234th (lowest rank post the early rounds)
6 2369 13873 10th (9=13876)
7 2280 16153 25th (24=16155)
8 2324 18477 8th (7=18479)
9 2348 20825 3rd (2=20945) season high overall rank
10 2368 23193 22nd (21 = 23195)
11 2221 25414 10th (9th = 25421)

12 1467 26881 eq33rd
13 1731 28612 81st (eq79 = 28616) a big fall over the first 2 bye rounds
14 1992 30604 67th (66=30606)

15 2527 33131 20th(19=33134)
16 2519 35650 10th (9=35658)
17 2354 38004 30th (29=38008)
18 2365 40369 58th (57=40373)
19 2480 42849 52nd (51=42852)
20 2548 45397 65th (64=45404)
21 2299 47696 103rd (102=47699) big weekly fall
22 2754 50450 39th (37=50464) massive 1 week jump
23 2485 52935 eq77th another big weekly fall
 
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#60
Hi @IDIG,

1. How do you actually do it?

As I say in the article I use a branch of maths calling Mixed Integer Programming (MIP). I am trying to throw together an academic paper on it so I'll share that if I ever get around to it / if it ever gets published.

2. How long does it take you?

The optimal team one was reasonably straight forward so maybe a weekend to work out and code all of it up. I did that one last year and the rules didn't change so this year it took me maybe an hour to get everything set up again and then it took the computer about 12 hours to solve. The ghost team one was a lot trickier to model because of the emergencies so was thinking about it for a while but once I worked it out it took maybe 2-3 hours to code up and the computer 19 hours to solve. But yeah now I have it so next year I can just run it.

3. How did this all come about?

Like most obscure things, I bet a mate at the pub that I could work it out. Also came at a point during my PhD were nothing was working so needed to prove to myself that I could at least work this stuff out.

4. What else could this type of works be beneficial for in the 'real world' (ie. business, etc)

An example that might interest the users on this site is sport scheduling. So my colleagues at Monash are currently working with the Indian Premier League (IPL) to come up with the schedules that are fair on all the teams but also take into account stuff like ensuring players aren't away from home for too, popular matches are played during prime time, etc. My PhD is trying to apply it to schedule lab robotics more efficiently.

5. Can you put together next year's winning team for me and i'll split the $10k first prize with you?

That is essentially what happened with my brother. He got off to a ripper start so we decided to start plugging in the projections. The projections were pretty rubbish but still helped balance the side before byes and also recommended Angus Brayshaw pretty early on which was cool.


I am going to go with 9 :)
 
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