Analysis PIT Averages: Durability v Higher Ceiling III

BlueNwhiteHoops

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#21
I've always been on the luck bandwagon but I don't think those players have the upside you're looking for. Most of the luck past winners have had has been more to the tune of a 30 point increase in average. The luck you really want is something like Swallow moving to the midfield, Laird not being a lock down back pocket anymore or Fyfe becoming a midfielder because Freo copped a heap of injuries. The prospectus has an interview with the guy who won AFL Fantasy two years in a row. He traded Wingard in after a 40 and an average of 60 for the first half of the year. Didn't even wait to see if he had turned the corner, just traded him in on hope. Your keepers should be solid picks so you can try your luck on the fringes with D6, M8 and F6. If you really like to take a risk then maybe D5, M7 and F5 are up for grabs as well but all the other spots should be solid. The 5 guys mentioned aren't priced low enough to be "the lucky picks" so I think you need to pick them believing they are "solid" keepers. From what we know they are mostly going to be playing the same role they have played the last few years and 3 of them are closer to the end of their career than they are to the start.
Even if they all work out, which would be a great result, I don't think the seperation they give you is the worth the risk of them all being M8's.
Good post. Very well explained point of view.
 

benderiffic

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#22
I present the third installment in the much anticipated :p PIT Averages series (Durability v Higher Ceiling I and Durability v Higher Ceiling II available here). For those who haven't heard the term before, PIT (or Points in Team) was first coined by SCS statistician Rowsus to highlight the importance of aggregates over average when choosing players in your side. Generally, my main takeaway from this analysis has been to pick only durable premium players (20 - 22 game players) in your starting side UNLESS they have a much higher ceiling than the 8th best option (eg: Def/Fwd 105+ or Mids 118+). You could make exceptions to the ceiling rule depending on discounts.

In last years' analysis, I suggested that a PIT108 for midfielders, PIT90-95 for defenders and PIT95 for forwards would be acceptable from your starters. Let's see how the 2018 data stacked up against those calls. As in the previous years, I've used a 70 average for mids and a 60 average for forwards & backs (to account for rookies covering their missed games). * denotes a missed game.

Mid only
View attachment 6378

From 2017, only Danger, Titch and Oliver remained in the top 8 for 2018 (with Dusty sneaking in at 12th). Neale continued the trend of one of the names listed 9-12 the previous year, pushing into the top 8 for the next year (joining Libba 14, JPK 15, Treloar 16, and Sloane 17). Uncanny trend, can Dusty help it continue in 2019?

Although we want a 110+ avg from our starting mids, in recent history, a PIT108 has been enough (looking at the mids listed 8-12 in most years). However, last year, even a PIT105 would've been good enough for your 8th mid (did anyone expect to see Joel Selwood or Ward here?). There was some preseason concern in 2018 that Cogs would be a poor pick as he could get stuck in that 105-108 range and lose points against mids that go 110+. However, a PIT107 was definitely good enough from him as a starter in the end. I think a 108 avg @ 21-22 games is usually good enough for a starter mid.

Defenders
View attachment 6381


There was a big shuffle in the defence from 2017 to 2018 (as there usually is). Laird and Simpson were the only main success stories of defenders who remained as top 12 defenders from 2017 (with McGovern and Hurley just sneaking in). In the preseason, I suggested a PIT90-95 would be acceptable, but I think the defenders did quite well last year overall so a PIT95 would be what you're after in defence as a minimum. It will be very interesting to see the results of the defenders at the end of the season, especially those that take kick ins. The pass mark for defence could even be PIT100 with the rule changes but still a lot to play out.

Forwards
View attachment 6372
The forwards of 2018 all performed strongly last season with 9 players achieving a PIT95. A better effort than 2017, where only 4 reached PIT95. Interestingly enough, this season all the top 12 forwards from last year are still available in the forward line this season - I don't think that's ever happened before! I think accordingly, a PIT95 would still be the minimum acceptable score from the forwards this season given that all the forwards from last year are still available.
Also, Westhoff has been a long time favourite of the PIT averages. He's appeared in the top 12 fwds in 5 of the last 6 years, and in 2018 he finally topped the averages! You'd think he'd be a strong chance to be there again this season, more a question of where.

That sums up my thoughts on the tables. Special thanks to @benderiffic for requesting the updated analysis for 2018 - good to hear that people are finding this useful!
Cheers legend, and thanks for the mention, extremely helpful
 
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#23
@Bomber18 thanks for updating these , always fascinating the discussion between averages or going for that aggregate player that rarely misses a game.

Interesting that the mids generally have 4-5 changes each season.
 

benderiffic

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#24
@Bomber18 is 2020 edition in the making? Thanks in advance, always love the read and find it extremely helpful in finding "value" for starting selections
 

Ironhawk

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#25
@Bomber18 is 2020 edition in the making? Thanks in advance, always love the read and find it extremely helpful in finding "value" for starting selections
Unless I'm missing something, can't you just click on the players button in SC, sort by total score descending and filter by position? It won't show you the correct average for anyone that didn't play all 22 games (which is simply total score divided by 22) but still ranks every player in order.

For example I believe the top 10 mids for 2019 on this ranking should be Macrae, Neale, Dunkley, Bont, Treloar, Danger*, Oliver, Fyfe**, Zorko, Cripps**. (Asterisks are how many games that player missed in 2019).
 

benderiffic

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#27
Unless I'm missing something, can't you just click on the players button in SC, sort by total score descending and filter by position? It won't show you the correct average for anyone that didn't play all 22 games (which is simply total score divided by 22) but still ranks every player in order.

For example I believe the top 10 mids for 2019 on this ranking should be Macrae, Neale, Dunkley, Bont, Treloar, Danger*, Oliver, Fyfe**, Zorko, Cripps**. (Asterisks are how many games that player missed in 2019).
Absolutely you can, but I really appreciate the discussion that this thread brings as opposed to keeping my selections close to my chest
 
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