Position PIT Averages for Defs/Mids/Fwds - Durability vs Higher Ceilings?

Bomber18

Moderator
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
13,743
Likes
5,178
AFL Club
Essendon
#1
I present the PIT (Points in Team) averages for Forwards, Backs & the Mids for the last four years. PIT was first coined by SCS statistician Rowsus to highlight the importance of aggregates over average when choosing players in your side.

I've used a 70 average for mids and a 60 average for forwards & backs. This might "punish" the forwards/backs for missing games but I think most years your forward/defensive bench rookies average about 60.






*indicates games missed

Note: FWIW 2016 Laird (97) had a PIT60 average of 88; 2016 Dahlhaus (96) and Hall (96) had PIT60 averages of ~87.5 each missing 5 games;
2015 Bennell (102) had ~88 after missing 7 games & 2015 T.Adams (98) had 91 missing 4 games.

Defenders
-For the last 3 seasons, the best D6 has scored around a 95 average with D8-9 scoring ~93. Additionally, players who miss more than 2 games have not made the top 10 (with the exception of Hodge's 108 season).
-The PIT averages in the defence highlights the importance of starting players in your 22 who play 21-22 games. EG: Laird (who I started in 2016) had a PIT60 of 88, but this was clearly beaten by lesser names like Burgoyne, Pittard, McDonald who played full seasons.

Mids
-Generally, the best M8 averages ~109 but you'd be happy enough with 106-7 from your actual M8 as that's what M10-12 have usually scored in most years (except in 2014). The top 10 usually play full seasons or miss 1-2 games at worst. Exceptions are the elite high scorers like Rocky, Gaz, Fyfe & Beams.

Forwards
-The number of 100+ averages seem to change from year to year in the forward line. As such, in '13 & '15 the best F6 was ~102 with F8-10 averaging ~98. In the other two seasons ~97 was the best F6 with F8-10 much lower at ~93!
-The top 10 feature a few players who missed 3 or more games such as Buddy, Chappy, Lids, Wells (2015 Titch an exception as he had a good run once selected).
-Bennell (who I started in 2015), Dahlhaus & Hall had PIT60s of ~88 & T.Adams (dejavu?) had ~91 but all easily beaten by less popular names such as Westhoff, Gunston, Harvey, Lynch in their respective years.

What does it all mean?
The main lesson I take from this is to pick only durable players (20 -22 game players) in your starting side UNLESS they have a much higher ceiling than the 8th best option (eg: Def/Fwd 105+ or Mids 118+). You could make exceptions to the ceiling rule depending on discounts, eg: Beams, Bennell, Roughy this season, as cash saved could equate to a ppg benefit.

What about injury prone players?
-Avoiding non-discounted injury prone players might rule out picks like Rocky, Hodge, Lids, Adams from your starting sides (although their perceived higher ceilings might justify the selection). However, remember they are always still there as trade-in options which can in turn be more successful if you can jump on their injury-free streak. EG: In recent years, trading in 2015 Lids, 2016 Laird and Rocky has been successful.
-The counter-argument is to start the injury prone player as then you just use one trade getting them out rather than two in total. It can get quite frustrating though having to hold these players for short term injuries (eg: Laird, Bennell). As it seems there are cons either way, I'm not sure if it's better to start them or trade them in.

These are my thoughts on the significance of PIT averages, I'm keen to hear what everyone else thinks. Thanks!
 
Last edited:

Dimmawit

Rising Star Winner
Joined
31 Jul 2013
Messages
314
Likes
205
AFL Club
Richmond
#2
Awesome work mate.

This stuff is invaluable however I think ultimately you have to take risks on a 'Hodge' type player this year. Put simply somewhere there will be a coach who does, happens to pick the right ones, and therefore ends up more highly ranked. If however your principal goal is to simply rank very well then following a durability requirement of sorts is a damn effective way to achieve that.
 

Bomber18

Moderator
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
13,743
Likes
5,178
AFL Club
Essendon
#4
Awesome work mate.

This stuff is invaluable however I think ultimately you have to take risks on a 'Hodge' type player this year. Put simply somewhere there will be a coach who does, happens to pick the right ones, and therefore ends up more highly ranked. If however your principal goal is to simply rank very well then following a durability requirement of sorts is a damn effective way to achieve that.
No doubt you need a few risks to win it, but is it worth taking them in your starting side or in your trading? Ie: hodge goes at 105+ and dominates as an inside mid, you can easily trade him in but if he doesn't and gets injured/suspended for 2-3 weeks you are stuck with him!
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
17,853
Likes
5,040
AFL Club
Melbourne
#5
Nice piece of work, B18! :)

Another thing I take from your tables, is that people's nominal expectations are generally too high!

We quite often hear/read that people want:

A bit over 100 from this or that Def, but only 1, 5, 1, 4 have managed it in the past 4 seasons - ave 2.8/season

Saying this Mid should be able to go 120+, but only 2, 3, 0, 1 have managed it - ave 1.5/season
Many even have expectations of 115+, but again only 4, 5, 3, 2 have managed it - ave 3.5/season

Around 105 for this or that Forward, but only 2, 3, 2, 3 have managed it - ave 2.5

Yes, there is a difference between a PIT average, and a season average, but the PIT average is really what you should be looking at. My biggest catch cry is "have reasonable expectations", and one of my biggest bug bears, is when someone writes "Johny Midplayer is good for a 120 season this year". It totally is unreasonable. History is History for a reason. Yes, it will be broken, or remade, but there is a reason there has only been 26 players record a 120+ season in 12 seasons of SC, and 22 of those have only recorded it once, and that is, it is bloody hard to achieve! The same applies for assuming lofty heights of other players. I remember during last pre-seasons Goldstein discussions that many took the attitude, that the worst case scenario was a drop from 128.8 in 2015, to a worst case of 115 or 118 in 2016. They simply could not envisage a worser case scenario, than a season that would be in the top 4 or 5 ever recorded by a Ruckman to that point! Remember, that was their worst case scenario! None of them would even entertain that he might drop below 110 in 2016! Have reasonable expectations people, or don't curse the player for not reaching your lofty goals!
 
Last edited:

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
17,853
Likes
5,040
AFL Club
Melbourne
#6
No doubt you need a few risks to win it, but is it worth taking them in your starting side or in your trading? Ie: hodge goes at 105+ and dominates as an inside mid, you can easily trade him in but if he doesn't and gets injured/suspended for 2-3 weeks you are stuck with him!
I think that can work with some players, but with players like Hodge (or Buddy for example), I think once you didn't start with them, you are very unlikely to trade them in. The main reason you didn't start them was you saw them as somewhat brittle. You knew they were capable of, and very likey to, post some big scores. That shouldn't, and rarely does, dissuade you from your brittle assessment. I actually think there is far more danger trading these players in, than starting them! You were of the opinion they were brittle, you trade them in, missing their good scores, then they prove you right, and go missing. You are now one tade, and many points behind those that started them. To me, they are start or forget players. The older a player gets, the more likely they are to fit this description. Look at Bartel for example. In his last 4 seasons he scored 100+ games at a rate of 6/10 games in the first two thirds of his (not the clubs!) seasons, but then at a rate of 3/10 in the last third of his seasons. I don't think you can afford to watch, then jump on, these type of players. They are start them, or forget them types!
 

Nathan

Best and Fairest
Joined
28 Dec 2012
Messages
3,429
Likes
1,088
#7
No doubt you need a few risks to win it, but is it worth taking them in your starting side or in your trading? Ie: hodge goes at 105+ and dominates as an inside mid, you can easily trade him in but if he doesn't and gets injured/suspended for 2-3 weeks you are stuck with him!
That's the safe way but you lose the main advantage of getting the scores as a POD.

From memory the guy who won by like 1000 points a couple of years back started D.Swallow, Parker & Gray who all became popular but he got the early benefits.
 

freowho

Dual Best & Fairest
Joined
27 Jan 2014
Messages
3,703
Likes
1,099
AFL Club
Fremantle
#8
That's the safe way but you lose the main advantage of getting the scores as a POD.

From memory the guy who won by like 1000 points a couple of years back started D.Swallow, Parker & Gray who all became popular but he got the early benefits.
And Sam Jacobs, and won RDT as well. Ridiculous.
 

Bomber18

Moderator
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
13,743
Likes
5,178
AFL Club
Essendon
#9
Nice piece of work, B18! :)

Another thing I take from your tables, is that people's nominal expectations are generally too high!

We quite often hear/read that people want:

A bit over 100 from this or that Def, but only 1, 5, 1, 4 have managed it in the past 4 seasons - ave 2.8/season

Saying this Mid should be able to go 120+, but only 2, 3, 0, 1 have managed it - ave 1.5/season
Many even have expectations of 115+, but again only 4, 5, 3, 2 have managed it - ave 3.5/season

Around 105 for this or that Forward, but only 2, 3, 2, 3 have managed it - ave 2.5

Yes, there is a difference between a PIT average, and a season average, but the PIT average is really what you should be looking at. My biggest catch cry is "have reasonable expectations", and one of my biggest bug bears, is when someone writes "Johny Midplayer is good for a 120 season this year". It totally is unreasonable. History is History for a reason. Yes, it will be broken, or remade, but there is a reason there has only been 26 players record a 120+ season in 12 seasons of SC, and 22 of those have only recorded it once, and that is, it is bloody hard to achieve! The same applies for assuming lofty heights of other players. I remember during last pre-seasons Goldstein discussions that many took the attitude, that the worst case scenario was a drop from 128.8 in 2015, to a worst case of 115 or 118 in 2016. They simply could not envisage a worser case scenario, than a season that would be in the top 4 or 5 ever recorded by a Ruckman to that point! Remember, that was their worst case scenario! None of them would even entertain that he might drop below 110 in 2016! Have reasonable expectations people, or don't curse the player for not reaching your lofty goals!
Very true that we often carry unreasonably high-expectations of our players. Forget 120, I'd say 115 from a full season is already setting expectations very high for a midfielder as your observations shows.

I was guilty of the Goldy hype last season too. Although his first 10 rounds were pretty solid, he fell 20 ppg in the end as would probably be expected statistically. Seemingly, we have the same decision this season with Gawn and we are none the wiser. It's as you say, we should set the expectation much lower than 120.
 
Last edited:

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
32,667
Likes
8,123
AFL Club
Essendon
#10
Phenomenal B18.

If that table doesn't illustrate why Scotty P should be everyone's M2, i don't know what will. Top 2 mid over the last 4 years yet everyone (me included at times) still tries to find reasons not to start him. Lockity locked.

Treloar also looks interesting.. :)
 

jaca

Vice Captain
Joined
23 May 2013
Messages
6,188
Likes
1,812
AFL Club
Sydney
#11
It's throw up an interesting FWD that I hadn't considered.
 

Bomber18

Moderator
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
13,743
Likes
5,178
AFL Club
Essendon
#12
I think that can work with some players, but with players like Hodge (or Buddy for example), I think once you didn't start with them, you are very unlikely to trade them in. The main reason you didn't start them was you saw them as somewhat brittle. You knew they were capable of, and very likey to, post some big scores. That shouldn't, and rarely does, dissuade you from your brittle assessment. I actually think there is far more danger trading these players in, than starting them! You were of the opinion they were brittle, you trade them in, missing their good scores, then they prove you right, and go missing. You are now one tade, and many points behind those that started them. To me, they are start or forget players. The older a player gets, the more likely they are to fit this description. Look at Bartel for example. In his last 4 seasons he scored 100+ games at a rate of 6/10 games in the first two thirds of his (not the clubs!) seasons, but then at a rate of 3/10 in the last third of his seasons. I don't think you can afford to watch, then jump on, these type of players. They are start them, or forget them types!
That's the safe way but you lose the main advantage of getting the scores as a POD.

From memory the guy who won by like 1000 points a couple of years back started D.Swallow, Parker & Gray who all became popular but he got the early benefits.
That's the main disadvantage of not having the early bolter, but the season is long and I think if a coach is able to close them off during the upgrade period (R5-10) they still can win the thing provided they have dodged enough bullets elsewhere. FWIW the winner last season didn't start Zerrett, Simmo or Doch who I think were the biggest breakouts last season.

The problems start happening when the situation Rowsus described arises and you just can't bring yourself to trade in the injury prone player (ie: Lids/Hodge) despite them going at 105-110.
 
Last edited:

Bomber18

Moderator
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
13,743
Likes
5,178
AFL Club
Essendon
#16
Westhoff stood out (I've done no other research)
I was going to guess it was him actually! Gone at 97, 91 and 95 before last season. I had him last year and he wasn't bad for a $400k trade in.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
17,853
Likes
5,040
AFL Club
Melbourne
#17
The problems start happening when the situation Rowsus described arises and you just can't bring yourself to trade in the injury prone player (ie: Lids/Hodge) despite them going at 105-110.
I think with players like Hodge, Deledio, Franklin etc. you just need to have the courage of your convictions, and stick to your guns.
There is danger in picking them, and there is danger in not picking them. If you start second guessing yourself, you double your risk.
I really think the best option is to decide at the start of the season. Start them, or forget them. You really open yourself to a near no win situation, if you flirt with trading them in. The only way you win is if they can carry through the rest of the season, maybe missing one or two games, and still scoring at the level that tempted you to trade them in, in the first place. To me, if you think they can do that, on the proof of just a handful of games, then you've done a complete 180, on a very small sample of evidence. That is the very definition of a knee-jerk reaction.
Before the season starts, we can't be sure if it is more dangerous to have started them or not. The most dangerous thing you can do, is trade them in! If you didn't start them, you were of the opinion the risk was too great. You knew they'd likely put up some good scores at some stage. With players like this, the longer the season goes, the higher the risk that they'll crack. It's no use by-passing the potential good, and having them for more games, percentage-wise, in their high risk period. Making large changes to your expectations of a player will in most cases lead to failure, not success. Back your judgement. Start them or forget them, they are not great trade in prospects. Ask t.t6 about trading in Deledio last season. It might be the one thing that cost him the $50k!
 
Last edited:

Bomber18

Moderator
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
13,743
Likes
5,178
AFL Club
Essendon
#18
I think with players like Hodge, Deledio, Franklin etc. you just need to have the courage of your convictions, and stick to your guns.
There is danger in picking them, and there is danger in not picking them. If you start second guessing yourself, you double your risk.
I really think the best option is to decide at the start of the season. Start them, or forget them. You really open yourself to a near no win situation, if you flirt with trading them in. The only way you win is if they can carry through the rest of the season, maybe missing one or two games, and still scoring at the level that tempted you to trade them in, in the first place. To me, if you think they can do that, on the proof of just a handful of games, then you've done a comple 180, on a very small sample of evidence. That is the very definition of a knee-jerk reaction.
Before the season starts, we can't be sure if it is more dangerous to have started them or not. The most dangerous thing you can do, is trade them in! If you didn't start them, you were of the opinion the risk was too great. You knew they'd likely put up some good scores at some stage. With players like this, the longer the season goes, the higher the risk that'll crack. It's no use by-passing the potential good, and having them for more games, percentage-wise, in their high risk period. Making large changes to your expectations of a player will in most cases lead to failure, not success. Back your judgement. Start them or forget them, they are not great trade in prospects. Ask t.t6 about trading in Deledio last season. It might be the one thing that cost him the $50k!
Very sensible advice, I should bookmark this post to refer to when the situation arises during the season!
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
17,853
Likes
5,040
AFL Club
Melbourne
#19
Westhoff stood out (I've done no other research)
I was going to guess it was him actually! Gone at 97, 91 and 95 before last season. I had him last year and he wasn't bad for a $400k trade in.
Westhoff might depend on Ryder. When Dixon came to Port it was meant to let Westhoff become more free to switch, and also be a link through the Midfield. As we all know, Port's tall structure fell apart last season, with no Ruckman, and Schulz fell apart, it meant they really became stretched in the tall man department. Westhoff's scoring was based on him having a bit of freedom. Go down back, take an intercept mark. Get up forward, mark, kick goal! If Ryder can stand up, then Westhoff might get that little bit of freedom again. Might.
 

Philzsay

Moderator
Joined
21 Mar 2012
Messages
7,757
Likes
1,009
AFL Club
Essendon
#20
These tables are also a reminder of how few players go back to back in the top 10, especially for defenders and forwards. I know this, yet too often in the opening round week scramble I'll add one of these players.... must not do that this year....
 
Top