Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

Tails

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Agree with this. Gray also likely to gain mid time, and Smith to potentially lose some, due to personnel movements. @freowho also mentioned an interesting theory that Smith could face a headwind because the ball could clear the narrower part of the ground more quickly following the rule changes. I think Smith also broke the tackle record last year ... which will presumably be hard to back up. The bill case would be that he finished the year strong, but I see him as more of an upgrade target for the reasons mentioned.
Gray to gain mid time ... sounds like a constant replay ... his best is good enough though ...
 

Connoisseur

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Simmo is jus so uber consistent. Ave 25 touches a game last 3 yrs, gone 100+ 2/3 yrs. not entirely sure Newman will affect him the way people are saying. Simmo will still find the pill. Has no issues when Docherty had his breakout yr, and Newman is no Docherty. Simmo is a total pts pick for me. I have him currently, but love Italy for his flog factor lol
K Simpson:
Since 2016: 101.72 from 65 of a possible 66 matches. 9/65 below 80, 32/65 100+, 16/65 120+.
Since 2013: 98.12 from 129 of a possible 132 matches.

2018:
Disposals: 26.14

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 27: 125.55 from 11 (low of 82 and a high of 150, 1/11 below 100, 7/11 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 27: 82.5 from 10 (low of 70 and a high of 97, 10/10 below 100)
Kicks: 17.57
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 18: 126.91 from 11 (low of 97 and a high of 150, 1/11 below 100, 7/11 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 18: 81 from 10 (low of 70 and a high of 97, 10/10 below 100)

Simpson has played 214 of a possible 220 games since 2009 and 280 of a possible 286 since 2006.

J Sicily:
2018:
Wins: 111.5 from 8 (low of 61 and a high of 145, 2/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)
Losses: 96.5 from 6 (low of 77 and a high of 123, 4/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

Disposals: 23.9
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 24: 114.29 from 7 (low of 90 and a high of 145, 2/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 24: 95.86 from 7 (low of 61 and a high of 135, 4/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)
Kicks: 16.9
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 17: 114.86 from 7 (low of 92 and a high of 145, 2/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 17: 95.29 from 7 (low of 61 and a high of 135, 4/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)
Marks: 7.5
SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 8: 112.57 from 7 (low of 92 and a high of 145, 2/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)
SC Avg when marks below 8: 97.57 from 7 (low of 61 and a high of 135, 4/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)
 

Tails

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K Simpson:
Since 2016: 101.72 from 65 of a possible 66 matches. 9/65 below 80, 32/65 100+, 16/65 120+.
Since 2013: 98.12 from 129 of a possible 132 matches.

2018:
Disposals: 26.14

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 27: 125.55 from 11 (low of 82 and a high of 150, 1/11 below 100, 7/11 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 27: 82.5 from 10 (low of 70 and a high of 97, 10/10 below 100)
Kicks: 17.57
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 18: 126.91 from 11 (low of 97 and a high of 150, 1/11 below 100, 7/11 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 18: 81 from 10 (low of 70 and a high of 97, 10/10 below 100)

Simpson has played 214 of a possible 220 games since 2009 and 280 of a possible 286 since 2006.

J Sicily:
2018:
Wins: 111.5 from 8 (low of 61 and a high of 145, 2/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)
Losses: 96.5 from 6 (low of 77 and a high of 123, 4/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

Disposals: 23.9
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 24: 114.29 from 7 (low of 90 and a high of 145, 2/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 24: 95.86 from 7 (low of 61 and a high of 135, 4/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)
Kicks: 16.9
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 17: 114.86 from 7 (low of 92 and a high of 145, 2/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 17: 95.29 from 7 (low of 61 and a high of 135, 4/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)
Marks: 7.5
SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 8: 112.57 from 7 (low of 92 and a high of 145, 2/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)
SC Avg when marks below 8: 97.57 from 7 (low of 61 and a high of 135, 4/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)
Geez ... uber consistent getting old fella vs Mr brain fade

Really like both of them and very tempting to have one of them .....
 

Hot Shame

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K Simpson:
Since 2016: 101.72 from 65 of a possible 66 matches. 9/65 below 80, 32/65 100+, 16/65 120+.
Since 2013: 98.12 from 129 of a possible 132 matches.

2018:
Disposals: 26.14

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 27: 125.55 from 11 (low of 82 and a high of 150, 1/11 below 100, 7/11 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 27: 82.5 from 10 (low of 70 and a high of 97, 10/10 below 100)
Kicks: 17.57
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 18: 126.91 from 11 (low of 97 and a high of 150, 1/11 below 100, 7/11 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 18: 81 from 10 (low of 70 and a high of 97, 10/10 below 100)

Simpson has played 214 of a possible 220 games since 2009 and 280 of a possible 286 since 2006.

J Sicily:
2018:
Wins: 111.5 from 8 (low of 61 and a high of 145, 2/8 below 100, 3/8 120+)
Losses: 96.5 from 6 (low of 77 and a high of 123, 4/6 below 100, 1/6 120+)

Disposals: 23.9
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 24: 114.29 from 7 (low of 90 and a high of 145, 2/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 24: 95.86 from 7 (low of 61 and a high of 135, 4/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)
Kicks: 16.9
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 17: 114.86 from 7 (low of 92 and a high of 145, 2/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 17: 95.29 from 7 (low of 61 and a high of 135, 4/7 below 100, 1/7 120+)
Marks: 7.5
SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 8: 112.57 from 7 (low of 92 and a high of 145, 2/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)
SC Avg when marks below 8: 97.57 from 7 (low of 61 and a high of 135, 4/7 below 100, 2/7 120+)

Legend. It’s because of people like you that this is the best fantasy sports site going.
 

Connoisseur

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Would be interesting to see the comparison of Taranto to Hooper.
J Hopper:
2018:
Disposals: 21
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 92.44 from 9 (1/9 below 80, 7/9 below 100)
SC Avg when disposals below 21: 67.7 from 10 (9/10 below 80)
Contested Possessions: 9.79
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 90 from 11 (4/11 below 80, 9/11 below 100)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 10: 64.88 from 8 (6/8 below 80)
Time on Ground%: 78.53%
SC Avg when time on ground equal/exceed 79%: 80.1 from 10 (4,9 below 80, 9/10 below 100)
SC Avg when time on ground below 79%: 78.67 from 9 (6/9 below 80, 8/9 below 100)

Contested Possession Rate: 46.62%
 

Bermi

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Thanks for that Connoisseur! I copied and pasted Taranto's below, to be close together.

T Taranto:
Disposals: 21.14
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 22: 102.56 from 9 (low of 73 and a high of 116, 2/9 below 100)
SC Avg when disposals below 22: 78.33 from 12 (low of 49 and a high of 98)
Contested Possessions: 9.48
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 100.7 from 10 (low of 79 and a high of 116, 3/10 below 100)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 10: 77.82 from 11 (low of 49 and a high of 98)
Time on Ground: 82.86%
SC Avg when time on ground equals/exceeds 83: 96.25 from 12 (low of 73 and a high of 116, 6/12 below 100)
SC Avg when time on ground below 83: 78.67 from 9 (low of 49 and a high of 112, 8/9 below 100)
*Disposal Efficiency: 61.49%
Contested Possession Rate: 44.72%
 
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Ricky Bobby

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J Hopper:
2018:
Disposals: 21
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 92.44 from 9 (1/9 below 80, 7/9 below 100)
SC Avg when disposals below 21: 67.7 from 10 (9/10 below 80)
Contested Possessions: 9.79
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 90 from 11 (4/11 below 80, 9/11 below 100)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 10: 64.88 from 8 (6/8 below 80)
Time on Ground%: 78.53%
SC Avg when time on ground equal/exceed 79%: 80.1 from 10 (4,9 below 80, 9/10 below 100)
SC Avg when time on ground below 79%: 78.67 from 9 (6/9 below 80, 8/9 below 100)

Contested Possession Rate: 46.62%
Hi Connoisseur

Would you please be able to post the stats for Wingard? In particular, I’m interested to see his figures in wins v losses.

Thanks
 

Connoisseur

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For R2:

Westhoff vs Goldstein?
J Westhoff:

Since 2011: Has played 173 of a possible 176 matches.
Since 2014: Has played 110 of a possible 110 matches for an average of 91.89.

In seasons averaging 90+
Wins: 103.52 from 50 (23/50 below 100, 13/50 120+)
2013: 106.08 from 12
2014: 97.07 from 14
2015: 103.83 from 12
2018: 108.17 from 12

Losses: 86.70 from 37 (28/37 below 100, 5/37 120+)
2013: 88.56 from 9
2014: 80.63 from 8
2015: 83.7 from 10
2018: 92.9 from 10

2018:
Disposals: 19.91

SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 20: 111.9 from 10 (low of 75 and a high of 147, 3/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 20: 92.33 from 12 (low of 73 and a high of 120, 9/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Kicks: 12.5
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 13: 111.67 from 12 (low of 73 and a high of 147, 3/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 13: 88.7 from 10 (low of 82 and a high of 106, 9/10 below 100)
Marks: 5.32
SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 6: 105.23 from 13 (low of 73 and a high of 147, 6/13 below 100, 4/13 120+)
SC Avg when marks below 6: 95.44 from 9 (low of 82 and a high of 126, 6/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
Contested Possessions: 8.82
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 9: 115 from 10 (low of 88 and a high of 147, 3/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 9: 89.75 from 12 (low of 73 and a high of 120, 9/12 below 100, 1/10 120+)

T Goldstein:
Since 2011 he has played 167 of a possible 176 matches for an avg of 107.67 with 2012 and 2017 the only seasons below 21 games played and a 100 avg.

2018 Pre Bye Averages:
Disposals: 12.33
Marks: 2.42
HTA: 10.42
2018 Post Bye Averages:
Disposals: 17.2
Marks: 4.5
HTA: 11.7

2018:
Disposals: 14.55
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 15: 115.6 from 10 (low of 88 and a high of 133, 1/10 below 100, 5/10 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 15: 88.75 from 12 (low of 57 and a high of 123, 7/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Marks: 3.36
SC Avg when marks equal/exceed 4: 117 from 9 (low of 88 and a high of 133, 1/9 below 100, 5/9 120+)
SC Avg when marks below 4: 89.85 from 13 (low of 57 and a high of 123, 7/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)
Contested Possessions: 7.09
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 8: 107.73 from 11 (low of 57 and a high of 133, 3/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 8: 94.18 from 11 (low of 61 and a high of 123, 5/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
Hitouts: 35.59
SC Avg when hitouts equal/exceed 36: 108.46 from 13 (low of 69 and a high of 133, 3/13 below 100, 5/13 120+)
SC Avg when hitouts below 36: 90.11 from 9 (low of 57 and a high of 125, 5/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
Hitouts to Advantage: 11
SC Avg when hitouts to advantage equal/exceed 11: 113.36 from 11 (low of 88 and a high of 133, 1/11 below 100, 4/11 120+)
SC Avg when hitouts to advantage below 11: 88.55 from 11 (low of 57 and a high of 125, 7/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)

Only 2 of his last 13 games in 2018 he recorded less than 10 Hitouts to Advantage compared to the 13 games prior to RD10 2018 where he recorded 8/13 less than 10 HTA. The SC averages in those games was
RD10 2018 onwards: 110.54 from 13 (2/13 below 100)
RD20 2017-RD9 2018: 85.92 from 13 (9/13 below 100)
Goldstein also achieved 5 20+ disposals games post bye (averaged 121.6 from those 5) which was the first time since 2015 he has recorded more than 1 20+ disposal game in a season.
 

Darkie

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Great stats as always, thanks @Connoisseur.

A question for you: how do you decide which stats to include in your posts?

I have an idea of how you approach this, but would be interested to confirm/be corrected!
 

Connoisseur

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Great stats as always, thanks @Connoisseur.

A question for you: how do you decide which stats to include in your posts?

I have an idea of how you approach this, but would be interested to confirm/be corrected!
The premium classification I have used is Def and Fwd 90+, Ruck 95+ and Mid 100+ which is why sometimes I'll make note of it in the post or there will be years missing (eg Westhoff 2016 and 2017).

Most of the stats I provide in the post are either the most beneficial/relevant for the player eg T Goldstein disposals, marks, HTA or high variations eg Hoff 15+ differential between wins and losses.

There were 65 players that achieved my aforementioned premium classification and for them I have compiled their record across their premium scoring history in the following categories: Avg VS Opponent, Avg at Home Ground and Interstate, Avg at Home Ground in Wins and Losses, Wins and Losses, Pre Bye and Post Bye, average and SC average in disposals, kicks, handballs, marks, tackles, contested possessions, clangers and TOG as well as goals being included if they are fwd or Hitouts and Hitouts to Advantage if they are a ruck.
 

Connoisseur

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Hi Connoisseur

Would you please be able to post the stats for Wingard? In particular, I’m interested to see his figures in wins v losses.

Thanks
C Wingard:
Wins: 102.17 from 36 (17/36 below 100, 7/36 120+)
2013: 111.83 from 12
2015: 94.67 from 12
2017: 100 from 12

Losses: 89.08 from 26 (18/26 below 100, 3/26 120+)
2013: 82.7 from 10
2015: 101.5 from 10
2017: 79 from 6

2018:
Wins Avg: 94.75 from 12 (6/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Losses Avg: 80.44 from 9 (6/9 below 100)
Pre Bye Avg: 72.63 from 8 (7/8 below 100)
Post Bye Avg: 98.46 from 13 (5/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)

Disposals: 20.81
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 108 from 9 (low of 83 and a high of 122, 1/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 21: 74.08 from 12 (low of 45 and a high of 105, 11/12 below 100)
Kicks: 12
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 12: 106.1 from 10 (low of 83 and a high of 122, 2/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 12: 72.73 from 11 (low of 45 and a high of 105, 10/11 below 100)
Contested Possessions: 9.67
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 104 from 10 (low of 83 and a high of 122, 3/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 10: 74.64 from 11 (low of 45 and a high of 110, 9/11 below 100)

Disposal Efficiency: 63.16%
Contested Possession Rate: 46.35%
 

Ricky Bobby

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C Wingard:
Wins: 102.17 from 36 (17/36 below 100, 7/36 120+)
2013: 111.83 from 12
2015: 94.67 from 12
2017: 100 from 12

Losses: 89.08 from 26 (18/26 below 100, 3/26 120+)
2013: 82.7 from 10
2015: 101.5 from 10
2017: 79 from 6

2018:
Wins Avg: 94.75 from 12 (6/12 below 100, 1/12 120+)
Losses Avg: 80.44 from 9 (6/9 below 100)
Pre Bye Avg: 72.63 from 8 (7/8 below 100)
Post Bye Avg: 98.46 from 13 (5/13 below 100, 1/13 120+)

Disposals: 20.81
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 108 from 9 (low of 83 and a high of 122, 1/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 21: 74.08 from 12 (low of 45 and a high of 105, 11/12 below 100)
Kicks: 12
SC Avg when kicks equal/exceed 12: 106.1 from 10 (low of 83 and a high of 122, 2/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
SC Avg when kicks below 12: 72.73 from 11 (low of 45 and a high of 105, 10/11 below 100)
Contested Possessions: 9.67
SC Avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 104 from 10 (low of 83 and a high of 122, 3/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
SC Avg when contested possessions below 10: 74.64 from 11 (low of 45 and a high of 110, 9/11 below 100)

Disposal Efficiency: 63.16%
Contested Possession Rate: 46.35%
Thanks for that. I was interested to see the stats in wins/losses as I am considering the possible negative impact if Hawks loose more games this year as a result of Mitchell being injured. Everyone seems to be considering the upside impact for Wingard, it there could also be an offsetting impact if the Hawks lose more games ( just a hypothesis at this stage).

As expected, Wingard does average less in a losing side and his overall stats are not very compelling from my perspective. As a Port man, do you have any thought on Wingard as a pick this year?
 

Darkie

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The premium classification I have used is Def and Fwd 90+, Ruck 95+ and Mid 100+ which is why sometimes I'll make note of it in the post or there will be years missing (eg Westhoff 2016 and 2017).

Most of the stats I provide in the post are either the most beneficial/relevant for the player eg T Goldstein disposals, marks, HTA or high variations eg Hoff 15+ differential between wins and losses.

There were 65 players that achieved my aforementioned premium classification and for them I have compiled their record across their premium scoring history in the following categories: Avg VS Opponent, Avg at Home Ground and Interstate, Avg at Home Ground in Wins and Losses, Wins and Losses, Pre Bye and Post Bye, average and SC average in disposals, kicks, handballs, marks, tackles, contested possessions, clangers and TOG as well as goals being included if they are fwd or Hitouts and Hitouts to Advantage if they are a ruck.
This makes a lot of sense, thank you. Looking at which stats drive the variations in their scoring can be quite enlightening, especially if you think a player will have a different role, or will win a lot more games, for example.
 
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Connoisseur

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Thanks for that. I was interested to see the stats in wins/losses as I am considering the possible negative impact if Hawks loose more games this year as a result of Mitchell being injured. Everyone seems to be considering the upside impact for Wingard, it there could also be an offsetting impact if the Hawks lose more games ( just a hypothesis at this stage).

As expected, Wingard does average less in a losing side and his overall stats are not very compelling from my perspective. As a Port man, do you have any thought on Wingard as a pick this year?
A recurring trend throughout his career is that he averages 90+ in odd numbered years and below 90 in even years.
2012- 51.7 from 19
2013- 98.6 from 22
2014- 79.9 from 21
2015- 97.8 from 22
2016- 80.8 from 18
2017- 93 from 18
2018- 88.6 from 21

Will be very interesting to see how Clarkson fills the void left by the Mitchell injury as Wingard could be one of the main beneficiaries if he receives a predominantly midfield role but I assume Clarko will fill the role by committee with a large number of players rotating through. He's a bit lackadaisical whether on game day/training I've noticed and will be intriguing if Clarko/Wingard tries to curb it.

In regards to my thoughts on the pick I think he should be safe for a 85-100 avg and could be the best selection from the 400,000 to 500,000 range. Ideally from a SC perspective you'd be hopeful for Wingard receiving a 50/50 or 60 mid/40 fwd split as most of his premium years have occurred either averaging 20+ disposals or 2+ goals a match and his contested style in the midfield would be preferred rather than long stints up forward for his SC scoring ability/consistency.

Dependent on your structure I think he will be a solid under-priced F3 starting selection but with his interrupted pre season he could be suited to an early upgrade before the byes to get a gauge on how he will be utilised in 2019.
 

Ricky Bobby

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A recurring trend throughout his career is that he averages 90+ in odd numbered years and below 90 in even years.
2012- 51.7 from 19
2013- 98.6 from 22
2014- 79.9 from 21
2015- 97.8 from 22
2016- 80.8 from 18
2017- 93 from 18
2018- 88.6 from 21

Will be very interesting to see how Clarkson fills the void left by the Mitchell injury as Wingard could be one of the main beneficiaries if he receives a predominantly midfield role but I assume Clarko will fill the role by committee with a large number of players rotating through. He's a bit lackadaisical whether on game day/training I've noticed and will be intriguing if Clarko/Wingard tries to curb it.

In regards to my thoughts on the pick I think he should be safe for a 85-100 avg and could be the best selection from the 400,000 to 500,000 range. Ideally from a SC perspective you'd be hopeful for Wingard receiving a 50/50 or 60 mid/40 fwd split as most of his premium years have occurred either averaging 20+ disposals or 2+ goals a match and his contested style in the midfield would be preferred rather than long stints up forward for his SC scoring ability/consistency.

Dependent on your structure I think he will be a solid under-priced F3 starting selection but with his interrupted pre season he could be suited to an early upgrade before the byes to get a gauge on how he will be utilised in 2019.
Thanks for your insights - very helpful 😀
 

TopBillings

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Interested in this also and throw in Mclean.

Kelly's bye works better for me but I'll be watching all 3 over the JLT. I think it's just going to come down to who gets the most midfield minutes out of these 4 this season.
I think it’s clearly Kelly with the most mid minutes. If he was at West Coast he would be a lock.
 
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