Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

freowho

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A recurring trend throughout his career is that he averages 90+ in odd numbered years and below 90 in even years.
2012- 51.7 from 19
2013- 98.6 from 22
2014- 79.9 from 21
2015- 97.8 from 22
2016- 80.8 from 18
2017- 93 from 18
2018- 88.6 from 21

Will be very interesting to see how Clarkson fills the void left by the Mitchell injury as Wingard could be one of the main beneficiaries if he receives a predominantly midfield role but I assume Clarko will fill the role by committee with a large number of players rotating through. He's a bit lackadaisical whether on game day/training I've noticed and will be intriguing if Clarko/Wingard tries to curb it.

In regards to my thoughts on the pick I think he should be safe for a 85-100 avg and could be the best selection from the 400,000 to 500,000 range. Ideally from a SC perspective you'd be hopeful for Wingard receiving a 50/50 or 60 mid/40 fwd split as most of his premium years have occurred either averaging 20+ disposals or 2+ goals a match and his contested style in the midfield would be preferred rather than long stints up forward for his SC scoring ability/consistency.

Dependent on your structure I think he will be a solid under-priced F3 starting selection but with his interrupted pre season he could be suited to an early upgrade before the byes to get a gauge on how he will be utilised in 2019.
His good years are declining and his bad years are improving. Flatline about 90.
 

pizza safety

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Cripps + Whitfield

Vs

Bont + Lloyd

I know many will pick the first and that’s the obvious choice but you have to think the second pair have a higher combined ceiling to start the year.
 

BigRuss

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Cripps + Whitfield

Vs

Bont + Lloyd

I know many will pick the first and that’s the obvious choice but you have to think the second pair have a higher combined ceiling to start the year.
Everything points to picking Lloyd at full price to be a mistake IMO. I also don’t trust Bont to play mid so it’s an easy Cripps & Whitfield for me.
 

freowho

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Cripps + Whitfield

Vs

Bont + Lloyd

I know many will pick the first and that’s the obvious choice but you have to think the second pair have a higher combined ceiling to start the year.
Whitfield has scored well on the wing and in the backline so seems bullet proof and the AFL is trying to reduce stoppages which suits the good runners. Lloyd is good at picking chips up off the ground on the last line of defence and the new rules would suggest there will be less chips to pick up.
The Bont is a star but Bevo and his hips might not let him shine.
 

pizza safety

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Everything points to picking Lloyd at full price to be a mistake IMO. I also don’t trust Bont to play mid so it’s an easy Cripps & Whitfield for me.
Yeah I’ve already regretted putting up the question, I keep thinking of Lloyd averaging 122 from rounds 8-22 and then including kick ins to that average and thinking he could just ruin those that don’t start him. A cooler head will say that defenders have a really hard time sustaining that type of scoring and even those like Hodge and Shaw havent followed up massive years with the same production.
 
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pizza safety

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Whitfield has scored well on the wing and in the backline so seems bullet proof and the AFL is trying to reduce stoppages which suits the good runners. Lloyd is good at picking chips up off the ground on the last line of defence and the new rules would suggest there will be less chips to pick up.
The Bont is a star but Bevo and his hips might not let him shine.
Hmm what do you mean he will pick up less chips? He already took the majority of their kick ins and isn’t a big interceptor?
 

freowho

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Hmm what do you mean he will pick up less chips? He already took the majority of their kick ins and isn’t a big interceptor?
He plays loose and picks up the scraps particularly on the last line of defence which gets scaled up in supercoach. Sydney like to play a slingshot game where they flood back and absorb pressure in their backline as opposed to a Hawthorn who try to hold their structure and stop the ball before it gets back. The new rules will see 6-6-6 and he is a poor contested player and the new kick in rules should see the ball cleared better from the backline. Both changes would suggest he will have less oportunities to get an uncontested possession which are his bread and butter. I don't think we're talking about a 20 point drop but I don't want to pay $600k for a player unless I am sure they can maintain their scoring.
 

pizza safety

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He plays loose and picks up the scraps particularly on the last line of defence which gets scaled up in supercoach. Sydney like to play a slingshot game where they flood back and absorb pressure in their backline as opposed to a Hawthorn who try to hold their structure and stop the ball before it gets back. The new rules will see 6-6-6 and he is a poor contested player and the new kick in rules should see the ball cleared better from the backline. Both changes would suggest he will have less oportunities to get an uncontested possession which are his bread and butter. I don't think we're talking about a 20 point drop but I don't want to pay $600k for a player unless I am sure they can maintain their scoring.
I think the idea that he won't get the short kick in possession is potentially offset by how many extra points he will net from kick ins, the only issue is that Mills might come back and take some of those kick ins, making him worse and not better in that respect. In terms of the way Sydney play, he plays as the spare when they start with 7 at the back but he doesn't play an intercept role, he plays the get out role and is the man they use as their exit strategy, if he is no longer as free in defence it might be more difficult to get the ball in his hands, but I'm not convinced of that. I would see his regression as more to do with him falling back to what he already was for most of his AFL career because I see the new rules mostly affecting intercept defending.
 

Bomber18

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Libba, Roberton and Greene v Cripps, DEF rookie and FWD rookie
I prefer the GnR option there. Not so convinced on that group of midpricers - my favourite would probably be Greene as he takes a possibly iffy fwd rookie off the field. Libba could be closer to 80 odd which isn't that great for his price. He averaged 80 odd in 2017 with 3 scores sub 40 (and I didn't see an injury affected game). Roberton might be more viable if the defensive rookies aren't as good. I'm always wary on defensive midpricers who aren't picked to be keepers.
 

Darkie

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Libba, Roberton and Greene v Cripps, DEF rookie and FWD rookie
On the basis that I have none of the first thre and arguably all of the second, I guess it's the latter by a fair way.

Hanley, Miles and Moore may be worth considering as alternates to your mid pricers.

I'm not averse to GMR for those who understand the risks.
 

Darkie

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I prefer the GnR option there. Not so convinced on that group of midpricers - my favourite would probably be Greene as he takes a possibly iffy fwd rookie off the field. Libba could be closer to 80 odd which isn't that great for his price. He averaged 80 odd in 2017 with 3 scores sub 40 (and I didn't see an injury affected game). Roberton might be more viable if the defensive rookies aren't as good. I'm always wary on defensive midpricers who aren't picked to be keepers.
On your last comment, is that because the def rookies are usually pretty good? I think you may have made this point previously, and it's a good one.

Re Libba, he was averaging around 98 from the first five and then got crunched by Mumford in round six and having a number of down weeks. It looks like he was in track for a modest scor in that game though:

http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/115902/Tom-LIBERATORE
 
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Bomber18

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On your last comment, is that becausenthe def rookies are usually pretty good? I think you may have made this point previously, and it's a good one.

Re Libba, he was averaging around 98 from the first five and then got crunched by Mumford in round six and having a number of down weeks. It looks like he was in track for a modest scor in that game though:

http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/115902/Tom-LIBERATORE
Played VFL as well for 3 rounds in 2017 - I was wondering whether he had an injury. Had a few tagging roles in 2017 as well - could get those again?
 
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