It seems that a lot of us think that one or more of the bottom-10 teams will jump into the 8 next year. If so, who drops out?
I'm not really sure it matters. The competition is so close now that it doesn't take much of a drop off for them to disappear down the table - just ask Geelong, or Fremantle, or even Sydney who really should have missed out too. I don't think anyone would have expected all three of those.
I'll take the common ground that Adelaide will go up, for the obvious reasons, but as for the other teams I think I could make a case for any of them being in the peloton other than North, West Coast, and maybe Richmond. It might turn out that say, Yze should he become coach, is a McRae level motivator and they get back up again, but I feel like them losing the heart and soul elements of their club (Riewoldt, Cotchin, Hardwick) will be too much to overcome in one off season.
Not being able to pick between 15 teams probably comes across as equivocating quite a lot but I'm in a competition with a group of my dad's friends to predict the top eight every year and I am routinely terrible at it

I think I only had four teams right this year!
I will say that I give Hawthorn more of a chance than the rest of the community, though.