Analysis Prospectus Snippets

Darkie

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#1
My copy of the AFL prospectus has just arrived. There are a lot of good stats inside, as well as colour on every current AFL player.

I thought it was worth creating a thread for any interesting snippets people pick up as they go through it, especially for those who don't have a copy (although I'd recommend ordering one, or getting the app once it's ready).
 

Darkie

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#2
I'll start.

Slightly confusing messages here re Brisbane defenders ...

On Harris Andrews: Will only get better. Could be a unique option for SuperCoach.

On Marcus Adams: Likely to impact Harris Andrews' scores more than anything. Not for me.
 

Bomber18

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#4
Nice! I was considering buying one for the first time. Might need to wait til it’s out in the newsagents.

Does it have the SC averages of the rookies in state leagues/U18/etc?
 

Darkie

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#5
Sam Collins: A must-have in defence.

McGovern is the best ever intercept marker, and took 89 intercept marks in 24 matches, a new record, in 2018.

In the VFL, Collins took 110 in 18 matches.

That's the best ever in a state league. The next best was his prior year in the WAFL (81 in 20 - Marty Hore in 2018 is next).

They also made the point that Collins was third in the VFL B&F, while in the AFL, Rance is the best key defender, but didn't poll a vote.
 

Darkie

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#6
Nice! I was considering buying one for the first time. Might need to wait til it’s out in the newsagents.

Does it have the SC averages of the rookies in state leagues/U18/etc?
It does indeed ... 400 pages of stats and articles.

It's obviously a personal decision, but anyone who is dedicated enough to be on here in January is likely to get their money's worth from it, in my view :)
 

Darkie

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#10
Logue: No thanks.

In 2017 in the WAFL (only played three games in 2018 due to two injuries), recorded the third worst loss rate* (48%) in defensive one on ones.

Fewest AFL player rating points of any key defender.

Poor for disposals, metres gains and spoils. Below average for CD points and disposals, poor for efficiency.

*A lot of the stats in the players' section of the prospectus are along the lines of "the third worst ... of the top 120 players for total contests defended". I won't include all of these qualifiers, as many of them are pretty long, and most of them seem pretty sensible and they're usually just imposing a reasonable sample size, and/or limiting the assessment to comparable players (general defenders, key defenders, etc).
 

Darkie

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#11
Macrae: racks them up all day long.

Second in the comp for disposals per game, but only 56th for AFL player rating points per game from ball use.

Elite for disposals, CP, UP, clearances, GBG and assists.

Number two for 35+ games and involvement in scoring chains amongst permanent mids.
 

Darkie

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#12
Longer: Richo no longer has to pick between him and Hickey. It's still a no from me though.

Interestingly they only played 8 games together since 2014.

Less than three kicks per game over the last six years.

Average for H2A. Below Hickey on this basis and for disposals and centre clearances.

Below the AFL rucks average for ruck win percentage and hitout to advantage percentage.

Edit: Worth flagging that Longer played one low TOG game in a small sample of 5 in 2018, which would have impacted his numbers. Hickey also averaged 90 SC and 75 DT, so even if Longer is below that he might be okay for cash generation given his price.

For what it's worth I have Longer at R2 in DT and am leaving him there for now.
 
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#18
Long time reader but not a frequent poster - I hope you don’t mind me chiming in.

I’m interested in Cockatoo from Geelong. I’ve heard he’s not in full training yet but I thought he might be a good pick up at expensive rookie price. Does the prospectus give any insight?
 

Darkie

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#19
Long time reader but not a frequent poster - I hope you don’t mind me chiming in.

I’m interested in Cockatoo from Geelong. I’ve heard he’s not in full training yet but I thought he might be a good pick up at expensive rookie price. Does the prospectus give any insight?
No problem, that's fine.

The conclusion given is: A crock in Fantasyland. [I feel like sometimes they try for rhymes and so on that maybe aren't 100% fair to the player, but there you go.]

Missed 40 games to injury since 2016.

Third best set shot accuracy of top 15 goal kickers at the Cats.

10th at the club for scorecard impact.

43% of his chains lead to a score, second highest at Geelong.

When he forces a turnover via his pressure acts, Geelong score 36% of the time (17th in the AFL).


Interestingly he only played 75 mins in his games from 2015-17 and 79 last year. Lots of upside to that, albeit he probably needs to improve a lot to be worthwhile.
 
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#20
No problem, that's fine.

The conclusion given is: A crock in Fantasyland. [I feel like sometimes they try for rhymes and so on that maybe aren't 100% fair to the player, but there you go.]

Missed 40 games to injury since 2016.

Third best set shot accuracy of top 15 goal kickers at the Cats.

10th at the club for scorecard impact.

43% of his chains lead to a score, second highest at Geelong.

When he forces a turnover via his pressure acts, Geelong score 36% of the time (17th in the AFL).


Interestingly he only played 75 mins in his games from 2015-17 and 79 last year. Lots of upside to that, albeit he probably needs to improve a lot to be worthwhile.
Thanks! Hopefully I get to eyeball him in one or two of the preseason games. His record is pretty poor on paper and fact he’s not training with the main group means he’s probably not worth it even at rookie price.
 
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