Analysis Prospectus Snippets

Darkie

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#81
Tim Kelly: After a stellar cash cow season, he's a POD selection in 2019.

Elite for disposals, clearances and CPs.

6th most goals of the top 150 ball winners, third at Geelong for scoreboard impact.

17th in the comp for CD ranking points in fourth quarters, outside the top 100 for the other three quarters. [I remember he went nuts one game at the death.]

Worst disposal per turnover rate of the top 50 ball winners.

Ticks for scoreboard and ball winning, question mark for ball use.
 

Woodsey

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#83
Interesting one for Luke Ryan - was only on my watchlist as a POD but he might struggle with the new 6-6-6 rule.
"He was often allowed to roam free and was handed only one match up which exceeded 40 minutes, as he was used as the loose man in defence more often than any AFL player. When isolated in a one-on-one Ryan struggled, losing 47% of the time - the worst loss rate of the top-100 players for contests defended."
 

Green Acres

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#84
Anyone know what McKay's stats were like as a junior? What's it say about him in the prospectus? Is he a KPD?
Just to answer query from @NT.Thunder about Ben McKay in the Rookies thread, thought I'd put it here...

BEN MCKAY 21yo 201cm 95kg 4th year
Sc ave: -, 49, -.
McKay was unable to break into the AFL side last season and has managed just one AFL game in three years. He spent last year as North Melbourne's main key defender in the VFL and his numbers improved across the board, averaging more disposals, marks, intercept marks and intercept possessions than in 2017, rating above average for marks and intercept marks. He defended the sixth-most one-on-one contests of any player in the competition, recording a win rate of 40% - the equal eighth-best of the top-50 players for one-on-ones defended.

Tick for One-on-One, Upward arrows for Ball Winning and Intercepting.

Freako says, "Still down the pecking order."
 

pizza safety

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Essendon
#85
Sam Walsh

"The best ball winner we have ever recorded as a junior. In 41 matches covered by Champion Data he averaged 28 disposals per match. He won at least 23 disposals in all of his 25 TAC cup games across the past two seasons, breaking Toby Greene's record of at least 22 disposals in 13 games. At the 2018 NAB AFL Under-18 Championships he won 118 disposals from 4 games, 19 more than anybody else. His impact per disposal has been his biggest question mark, but at the Championships he had an elite kick rating for a midfielder.

Freako says: "Could be the best fantasy player ever. Watch out Tom Mitchell"

Ticks for ball winning and outside game, question mark for kicking.



At the back of the book it says he averaged 158 SC points in the TAC cup and 141 at the under 18 championships. Many of the expensive cash cows from last year had their averages drop significantly from the tac cup to the u/18 champs. For example Uniacke went from 134 to 82, Dow from 119 to 98, Clark from 126 to 72 and Brayshaw from 131 to 107. The fact that Walsh maintained a similar average as the competition got harder is a good sign for his first year in the AFL.

Some have raised concerns about his weight, he was drafted at 77kg, not 74kg, that was his weight earlier in the year. Apparently he's also put on a bit of size this preseason so he's probably close to 80 kg, which isn't incredibly light.
 
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Bomber18

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#87
Finally got a copy of the prospectus. The discussion on the impact of 6-6-6 was very interesting. It notes that Adelaide lined up with 8-6-4 (two extra men back) 29.2% of the time, 7-6-4 (extra man back) 48.7% of the time for a total of around 78%. They lined up 6-6-6 only 4.4% of the time. Crows were also 18th in centre bounce clearance differentials for the comp in 2018.

It makes me wonder if Laird is more of a risk given that he won't be able to be loose man back and intercept so easily from the centre bounce. Not thinking that he'll fall out of the top 6-7 defs altogether, but he could be closer to that 98-100 region rather than 108-110.

Richmond also had very high numbers of having extra men back. They lined up with a 8-6-4 formation 11.5% of the time, a 7-6-5 formation 71.1% of the time and a 6-6-6 formation only 3.4% of the time. I wonder how the changes impact someone like Short, possibly a similar effect to Laird if it's more difficult for him to play loose and intercept/rebound.

Most of the teams with good rebound defenders had high numbers for having an extra men back as well. 8-6-4 and 7-6-5 for Sydney were 1% and 49% (total 50%), Carlton were 2% and 31% (total 33%), GWS were 6% and 51% (total 57%), and Hawks were 1% and 38% (total 39%).

Brisbane had the lowest % of having an extra man back, 8-6-4 and 7-6-5 for Brisbane was 0.3% and 7.6% (total 8%) with 6-6-6 being a competition high 68%. This possibly means Witherden is a bit safer as he wasn't relying on being loose for his scoring. Might also mean Brisbane players more generally will be advantaged by the rule changes as that was their usual set up in any case.
 

pizza safety

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#88
Finally got a copy of the prospectus. The discussion on the impact of 6-6-6 was very interesting. It notes that Adelaide lined up with 8-6-4 (two extra men back) 29.2% of the time, 7-6-4 (extra man back) 48.7% of the time for a total of around 78%. They lined up 6-6-6 only 4.4% of the time. Crows were also 18th in centre bounce clearance differentials for the comp in 2018.

It makes me wonder if Laird is more of a risk given that he won't be able to be loose man back and intercept so easily from the centre bounce. Not thinking that he'll fall out of the top 6-7 defs altogether, but he could be closer to that 98-100 region rather than 108-110.

Richmond also had very high numbers of having extra men back. They lined up with a 8-6-4 formation 11.5% of the time, a 7-6-5 formation 71.1% of the time and a 6-6-6 formation only 3.4% of the time. I wonder how the changes impact someone like Short, possibly a similar effect to Laird if it's more difficult for him to play loose and intercept/rebound.

Most of the teams with good rebound defenders had high numbers for having an extra men back as well. 8-6-4 and 7-6-5 for Sydney were 1% and 49% (total 50%), Carlton were 2% and 31% (total 33%), GWS were 6% and 51% (total 57%), and Hawks were 1% and 38% (total 39%).

Brisbane had the lowest % of having an extra man back, 8-6-4 and 7-6-5 for Brisbane was 0.3% and 7.6% (total 8%) with 6-6-6 being a competition high 68%. This possibly means Witherden is a bit safer as he wasn't relying on being loose for his scoring. Might also mean Brisbane players more generally will be advantaged by the rule changes as that was their usual set up in any case.
I'm planning on starting Sicily and it's a bit of a concern. A 7-6-5 formation versus a 6-6-6 formation yielded 6.43% scores after the first turnover from the centre bounce, whilst a 6-6-6 versus a 6-6-6 formation yielded 5.31% scores from the first turnover after the centre bounce. That's a 17% decrease in scores from turnover but it's unclear if that directly correlates to 17% less intercept possessions at the centre bounce amongst defenders as the turnover will not always be from a defender. Also this is just at the centre bounce and there about 28 per game, the rest of the game is open for defenders to drop back and thats probably the case for over 100 minutes of the game. Maybe overall intercepting drops by about 5-10% but it could affect those players who play loose in defence as a spare more often, like Sicily.
 

Bomber18

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#89
I'm planning on starting Sicily and it's a bit of a concern. A 7-6-5 formation versus a 6-6-6 formation yielded 6.43% scores after the first turnover from the centre bounce, whilst a 6-6-6 versus a 6-6-6 formation yielded 5.31% scores from the first turnover after the centre bounce. That's a 17% decrease in scores from turnover but it's unclear if that directly correlates to 17% less intercept possessions at the centre bounce amongst defenders as the turnover will not always be from a defender. Also this is just at the centre bounce and there about 28 per game, the rest of the game is open for defenders to drop back and thats probably the case for over 100 minutes of the game. Maybe overall intercepting drops by about 5-10% but it could affect those players who play loose in defence as a spare more often, like Sicily.
It no doubt will be something to monitor a bit more. The increase from kick-ins is easier to account for however, the potential decrease from possibly less intercepts is harder to quantify. Although, defenders who are better at 1 on 1 contests would be the ones that are less affected (and possibly receive a boost if they can take more contested intercept marks). Sicily being a taller defender is at least something in his favour for 1 on 1 contests, although I'm not sure there were any stats on his win rate of contests in the prospectus.

Conversely, there was a comment that Laird was quite good at 1 on 1 contests last year (highest winrate of defensive one-on-one contests of the top 100 in a contest with 51%. Loss rate of 19% was the 10th best of that group).
 

pizza safety

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#90
It no doubt will be something to monitor a bit more. The increase from kick-ins is easier to account for however, the potential decrease from possibly less intercepts is harder to quantify. Although, defenders who are better at 1 on 1 contests would be the ones that are less affected (and possibly receive a boost if they can take more contested intercept marks). Sicily being a taller defender is at least something in his favour for 1 on 1 contests, although I'm not sure there were any stats on his win rate of contests in the prospectus.

Conversely, there was a comment that Laird was quite good at 1 on 1 contests last year (highest winrate of defensive one-on-one contests of the top 100 in a contest with 51%. Loss rate of 19% was the 10th best of that group).
Realistically intercepting would drop by much less than 5-10 % but it will probably drop a bit. I know Sicily is actually pretty good 1 versus 1 but I think if he is playing loose and guarding space at the centre bounce and they are outnumbering their opponents its more likely that he will be taking intercept marks after the bounce. From the prospectus his 1 vs 1 Loss percentage is 18.9%, much better than the General defender average of 31.1% and the key defender average is 26%. He was ranked first in the league in 2017 after his shift to defence for contested intercept marks from rounds 14-23, if we see more of that with the new rules his scoring could increase. In my opinion the risk of him dropping is offset by how much he could gain from kick ins and his incredibly high ceiling. I've never seen such a powerful combination of intercept defender and attacking half back as I have with Sicily.

Edit: Interesting comparing Sicily and Laird, Sicily averaged 9.2 intercept possessions including 2.9 intercept marks, whilst Laird averaged 9 intercept possessions but that only included 1.6 intercept marks, not sure which type of intercepting will be mostly affected.
 
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NT.Thunder

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#91
It's good discussion and really excited to see this pan out. It'll close up the gap at the top of the defender ranking I reckon
 

NT.Thunder

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#92
Intercept marks especially contested are gold in SC. Maybe Sicily drops slightly in uncontested intercepts marks (4pts) but increases slightly in contested intercept marks (8pts) and breaks even or better - just no idea to tell at this stage.
 

Bomber18

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#93
Realistically intercepting would drop by much less than 5-10 % but it will probably drop a bit. I know Sicily is actually pretty good 1 versus 1 but I think if he is playing loose and guarding space at the centre bounce and they are outnumbering their opponents its more likely that he will be taking intercept marks after the bounce. From the prospectus his 1 vs 1 Loss percentage is 18.9%, much better than the General defender average of 31.1% and the key defender average is 26%. He was ranked first in the league last year after his shift to defence for contested intercept marks from rounds 14-23, if we see more of that with the new rules his scoring could increase. In my opinion the risk of him dropping is offset by how much he could gain from kick ins and his incredibly high ceiling. I've never seen such a powerful combination of intercept defender and attacking half back as I have with Sicily.
Found the one on one contests column now - that's really positive for Sicily!

In comparison, one on one loss rate for other popular defenders last year was:
Lloyd - 45%
Simpson - 22%
Whitfield - 35%
Williams - 33% from 2 games (33% also from 13-17)
Witherden - 33%

So out of the more popular defenders, Laird, Sicily and Simpson are better at one on ones.

Lloyd possibly is affected the most from the rule changes. He has a very poor one on one loss rate. Sydney also lined up with a loose man much more frequently than Carlton and Hawthorn. Lloyd also took a huge chunk of the kick-ins last year (had 55% of all kickins in 2018) and indications were that kickins are likely to be shared around more this year which possibly means the benefit of kick-in rules might not flow on to Lloyd as much if he gets less kickins overall. The stats probably suggest that it's better to avoid Lloyd as a starter. I still think he'll be a top 6 defender with around a 100 avg at least so definitely will be relevant this year as a trade in.
 
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Bermi

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#95
A lot of good positive stats on Sicily, but he has "......got a habit of giving it back, ranking second overall for turnovers back to the opposition....." and how many games will he miss?
 

Bermi

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#96
Before the ball is bounced it is a 6-6-6 formation, but most of the time, teams may revert back to the 8-6-4 or 7-6-5 formation. I have no idea how much time the game will be played with a 6-6-6 formation or an 8-6-4 or 7-6-5 formation? Maybe the 6-6-6 new rules won't make much difference to intercept marking defenders? I don't know, just a thought :unsure:
 

Tails

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#97
Before the ball is bounced it is a 6-6-6 formation, but most of the time, teams may revert back to the 8-6-4 or 7-6-5 formation. I have no idea how much time the game will be played with a 6-6-6 formation or an 8-6-4 or 7-6-5 formation? Maybe the 6-6-6 new rules won't make much difference to intercept marking defenders? I don't know, just a thought :unsure:
Agree .... teams will eventually work out how to negate it ... Ie. if the ball isn't cleared then we are back at the status quo .... from my understanding ...
 

pizza safety

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#98
Agree .... teams will eventually work out how to negate it ... Ie. if the ball isn't cleared then we are back at the status quo .... from my understanding ...
The prospectus showed how 6-6-6 versus 6-6-6 last year led to more scores from clearances and less from turnovers and you would imagine that those teams tried their best to defend following the bounce, so there might be a way around it but there will still be an impact
 

Tails

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The prospectus showed how 6-6-6 versus 6-6-6 last year led to more scores from clearances and less from turnovers and you would imagine that those teams tried their best to defend following the bounce, so there might be a way around it but there will still be an impact
Agree but teams have now had time to study and train for it. Strong clearance teams and/or those with dominant rucks will love it ....
 
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