Analysis Prospectus Snippets

Bermi

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The prospectus showed how 6-6-6 versus 6-6-6 last year led to more scores from clearances and less from turnovers and you would imagine that those teams tried their best to defend following the bounce, so there might be a way around it but there will still be an impact
I'm sorry Pizza Safety, I'm not sure what you mean, hmmm. I'm referring to intercept marking by defenders if it will increase or not? Are you saying that 6-6-6 last year led to more goals/points being scored from clearances? If so, then that doesn't sound like Sicily will benefit with intercepting marking.
 

Darkie

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Could I please request:

DRoberton
ZWilliams
RGray
TGreene
AMiles
Roberton: an elite scorer when fit.

Elite in 2017 for ranking points, metres gained and intercepts.

In three full games in 2018 was elite for marks and intercept marks, and above average for disposals, UP and intercept possessions.

Above average kick rating, has been at this level or better for four years.

Ticks for ball winning, intercepting and kicking.

26.1% one on one losses from 2013-17, vs 31.1% comp average.
 

pizza safety

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I'm sorry Pizza Safety, I'm not sure what you mean, hmmm. I'm referring to intercept marking by defenders if it will increase or not? Are you saying that 6-6-6 last year led to more goals/points being scored from clearances? If so, then that doesn't sound like Sicily will benefit with intercepting marking.
That's alright I was a bit unclear. The prospectus has a table showing % of scores of clearances with different set ups against each other and they were most present with 6-6-6 versus 6-6-6, meaning that there were less turnovers generally when a team won the clearance, but also that there were less scores from turnovers following centre clearances with 6-6-6 versus 6-6-6. My point was just that teams with 6-6-6 formations would have already tried to negate scoring following centre clearances by dropping players back, so even though coaches may find ways of dropping defenders back I'm sure this has already been going on following the bounce in those instances of 6-6-6 versus 6-6-6. Teams probably have wingers and half-forward flankers who drop into defence as their team loses the bounce. I do think Sicily will be impacted a little bit but not a huge amount, and it could also lead to more contested intercept marks for him.
 

Darkie

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Z Williams: underpriced and is a must have from the start.

Rushed back after just one NEAFL game, underscoring his importance.

In 2017, was second to Yeo for AFL player rating points for gen defs. Also elite for CP, score involvements and tackles.

In the two finals in 2018 he was in the top three at GWS for effective kicks, intercept possessions, score launches, intercept marks and UP.

Ticks for ball winning, metres gained and attacking.
 

Darkie

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Gray: still one of the best DPPs around.

The only player to average at least four clearances and 1.5 goals.

Third most centre bounces amongst mids at Port, with 49% of those clearances won, the best at the club.

Converted 93% of centre bounce first possessions into a clearance, ranked seventh in the comp.

Overall, fifth amongst mid fwds for AFL player ratings. Elite for CP, clearances, score involvements and goals.

Ticks for scoreboard, centre bounces and clearances.


Played 111 minutes last year, so could potentially have some TOG downside.
 

Darkie

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Greene: a gun goalkicker, but he can't be trusted in Fantasyland.

Never played more than four games in a row last season. Was one of only two gen fwds to rate elite for marks inside 50, goals, assists, and score involvements.

Fifth of all general forwards for scoreboard impact per game. 49% of his chains led to a score, ranked equal tenth of that group.

Defensive play basically non existent, poor for pressure acts, tackles and tackle efficiency, with career lows in each of those stats.

Ticks for scoreboard and marking, cross for pressure.
 

Darkie

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Miles: a proven ball winner in a team that needs ball winners.

Dominated the VFL in the last two seasons. Fifty in the Liston trophy in 2017 and joint winner last year. Most disposals per game, elite for clearances, score involvements and goals.

Of VFL players playing at least 10 games over the past two seasons, in the top five for disposals, CPs, clearances and I50s per game.

Ticks for VFL form and ball winning, up arrow for opportunity.
 

Woodsey

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Any info on Harmes.

Cheers
Two successful tagging roles against Geelong in round 18 where he kept Joel Selwood to 8 disposals in 51 minutes and Dangerfield to 4 disposals in 42 minutes proved the catalyst for a tweak in role and an uptick in output for Harmes. He increased his midfield time from 64% in rounds 1-17 to 90% from round 18 onwards, ranking in the top-four at the club for disposals, contested possessions, clearences, tackles and pressure acts. Harmes also increased his Champion Data ranking points by 20 points per game.
Tick for accountability and ball-winning and clearances upwards arrows.

Freako Says "His graph is on the rise, but monitor his role before committing."
 
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Two successful tagging roles against Geelong in round 18 where he kept Joel Selwood to 8 disposals in 51 minutes and Dangerfield to 4 disposals in 42 minutes proved the catalyst for a tweak in role and an uptick in output for Harmes. He increased his midfield time from 64% in rounds 1-17 to 90% from round 18 onwards, ranking in the top-four at the club for disposals, contested possessions, clearences, tackles and pressure acts. Harmes also increased his Champion Data ranking points by 20 points per game.
Tick for accountability and ball-winning and clearances upwards arrows.

Freako Says "His graph is on the rise, but monitor his role before committing."
Cheers,Woodsey.

Averaged 110 from last 7 including finals so could be good if he gets the midfield minutes that you have pointed out.
 

Bomber18

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Making getting on the early bolter fraught with danger. There'll be adjustments after the JLT and then after the first 4 rounds.
Completely agree - those correction trades early on will be interesting to see play out.

It’ll possibly be more important this season to ensure you can start an early bolter so that you aren’t as afraid to jump off when things change. Conversely, you probably need to be willing to admit you got a correction trade wrong and jump off if you grab a bolter and they revert to poorer scoring.
 

Hot Shame

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Oliver was the only mid to rate elite for touches, contested possies, intercept possies, score involvements an tackles in 2018. Him & Gawn are rated the best Ruck/Rover combo for effective hitouts last season, also increased his meters gained by 170m a game to 369m.

God i hope he is fit come round 1. Only running laps atm i think.
 

Cookie2711

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Oliver was the only mid to rate elite for touches, contested possies, intercept possies, score involvements an tackles in 2018. Him & Gawn are rated the best Ruck/Rover combo for effective hitouts last season, also increased his meters gained by 170m a game to 369m.

God i hope he is fit come round 1. Only running laps atm i think.
Due to ramp things up this week all going well from what I understand.
 
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Found the one on one contests column now - that's really positive for Sicily!

In comparison, one on one loss rate for other popular defenders last year was:
Lloyd - 45%
Simpson - 22%
Whitfield - 35%
Williams - 33% from 2 games (33% also from 13-17)
Witherden - 33%

So out of the more popular defenders, Laird, Sicily and Simpson are better at one on ones.

Lloyd possibly is affected the most from the rule changes. He has a very poor one on one loss rate. Sydney also lined up with a loose man much more frequently than Carlton and Hawthorn. Lloyd also took a huge chunk of the kick-ins last year (had 55% of all kickins in 2018) and indications were that kickins are likely to be shared around more this year which possibly means the benefit of kick-in rules might not flow on to Lloyd as much if he gets less kickins overall. The stats probably suggest that it's better to avoid Lloyd as a starter. I still think he'll be a top 6 defender with around a 100 avg at least so definitely will be relevant this year as a trade in.
Does 1 on 1 loss rate include both marks and spoils? If so, do spoils count for SC points?

Agree .... teams will eventually work out how to negate it ... Ie. if the ball isn't cleared then we are back at the status quo .... from my understanding ...
As in teams will revert to 8-6-4 after a second bounce?
 
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Does 1 on 1 loss rate include both marks and spoils? If so, do spoils count for SC points?


As in teams will revert to 8-6-4 after a second bounce?
second bounce will result in 3-12-3 as is the case now

lot of people getting excited over 6-6-6 it is not netball , they are only in those positions for centre square bounces then it becomes U9's let's all follow the ball around like before

yes hopefully the initial bounces allow a quicker clearance and open it up for a few extra seconds but after that ? back to what we have now
 
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suspect we will see

* the Heath Shaw "park the caravan" position become more popular

* 2 interceptors/sweepers 40 metres out from goals

* the current congestion now between the 50 metre arcs

* the Robert Walls huddle , Clarko's cluster , Buckley's press , the Eagles web will all be modified

may try and use the wings more and have 4-6 outside runners all game (endurance factor will come into it)

clean tap , quick takeaway , accurate kick I50 to a FF , not sure if that will happen regularly enough

think they needed to make it 1-3 permanent players inside F50 at all times personally.

hopefully things will change because the aesthetics of watching the current game is very hard to watch
 
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second bounce will result in 3-12-3 as is the case now

lot of people getting excited over 6-6-6 it is not netball , they are only in those positions for centre square bounces then it becomes U9's let's all follow the ball around like before

yes hopefully the initial bounces allow a quicker clearance and open it up for a few extra seconds but after that ? back to what we have now
Yeah, but that now means the roaming defenders won't get so much free space.
 
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Yeah, but that now means the roaming defenders won't get so much free space.
Sorry I must be watching a different game the last few years.

Most clubs defence setup as a zone and guard space , very rare they actually play man on man , maybe 1 or 2.

Yes they will be 6-6-6 for a bounce but that is all
 
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