Punting Discussion

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No luck there in the one bet on weekend but happy with value I got when put it on. Cannot expect every little value bet to get up. But over time you tend to go well if stick to value bets.
 

IDIG

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Pies +49.5 and Sidey most possies @ 6s for me.

Also don't mind Richmond, Gold Coast and GWS with the points. Freo/Port under 160 odd as well?? Reckon that'll be a real tight one.
 
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Freo/Port under 160 odd as well??
Certainly game of the round. Big prize to winner of double chance. The finals start a week early for both clubs. Shows with Barlow picked.
Other clubs like Hawks, Cats and Swans can afford to rest one or two guns to freshen up for 4 weeks of finals.
I guess Fyfe has enforced rest up for Freo.

I probably not bet anything this week. Tricky round to bet.
 

Rowsus

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It's not AFL betting, but anyone having a dabble on the Cox Plate, I reckon the 2 of the 3 English horses are way over the odds.
Side Glance $26, and Guest Of Honour $81 are both at ridiculous odds!
 

IDIG

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This has been bugging me so hoping some one knows the answer.

On sportsbet, let's just say i put $10 on Freo when they were $3.50. Cash out offer is say $8.

If the odds move against you, for argument's sake Freo now paying $6 after they announce the mass restings. Does the cash out amount change in the positive for you? ie, would/does it move out back to $10, or beyond?
 

MrMurdoch

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This has been bugging me so hoping some one knows the answer.

On sportsbet, let's just say i put $10 on Freo when they were $3.50. Cash out offer is say $8.

If the odds move against you, for argument's sake Freo now paying $6 after they announce the mass restings. Does the cash out amount change in the positive for you? ie, would/does it move out back to $10, or beyond?
Nah I'm pretty sure it's the opposite mate. They'd be offering you less than the $8 they initially offered you as cash out
 
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Almost tempted to put a small bet on North tonight. $9 is crazy odds despite them resting quite a few players.
 

Rowsus

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Hidden away, in the dark recesses of SCS......

Every now and then, when the opportunity arises, I do a complete 5 or 6 hour dissection (they are pretty thorough!) of the feature race of the day. I have 3 punting friends that I share these analyses with, when I have finished them.
I did the Bletchingly Stks last week, and came up with Lord Of The Sky as a suggested each-way bet. It duly won at $8.
I have done the Auries Star H'cap at Flemington this Saturday.
Anyone wanting a copy of the two part analysis, and the suggested bets, pm me your e-mail address.
 
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Hidden away, in the dark recesses of SCS......

Every now and then, when the opportunity arises, I do a complete 5 or 6 hour dissection (they are pretty thorough!) of the feature race of the day. I have 3 punting friends that I share these analyses with, when I have finished them.
I did the Bletchingly Stks last week, and came up with Lord Of The Sky as a suggested each-way bet. It duly won at $8.
I have done the Auries Star H'cap at Flemington this Saturday.
Anyone wanting a copy of the two part analysis, and the suggested bets, pm me your e-mail address.
There is nothing unthorough about you Rowan. Fortunately I lost the drive for the punt a few years back.
Good luck!
 

Rowsus

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Sportsbet offerings in Megabets this week. Sometimes these Megabets are great value, sometimes they are the opposite. You need to do some digging!
Who can forget how many of us cleaned up on the Goldy tapouts bet at the first SCS night?!

A Treloar to kick a goal at both ends against Richmond - $18
At first glance it seems like something that might be worth $5 as a silly interest bet. But in 76 games Treloar has only kicked 26 goals, and has only kicked more than one in a game once! - Looks like a value interest bet, researches as a dud waste of money! My market says you'd want around $41 to back this. He should nearly be $18 just to kick 2 goals, let alone them being at different ends!

L Hunter to get 35+ disposals against North - $7
Hunter has managed this 3 times this season (R2 StK, R6 Nth, R11 WC), he has also gotten close with 33 & 34 disposals.
Players to achieve this against Nth this season are: R17 R Gray, R12 Dangerfield (48!) & Selwood, R11 S Grigg, R10 T Mitchell & JPK, R8 Goddard & Zerrett, R6 Hunter, R4 Neale.
So it has been achieved in 6 games, by 8 players, across 18 Rounds.
The game is at Etihad, and Hunters figures at Etihad this season are: 31, 35, 23, 33, 32, 44, 25, 38, 25, 24, 28 - Ave 30.7
It's no certainty, but the figures above suggest it is more like a $5-$6 chance, and might be worth a $10 interest, if you are watching the game.

Adelaide to kick a higher score against Brisbane than Port's 173 - $8
Adelaide have kicked scores of 144 (R2 Port) & 143 (R19 Ess) this season.
Brisbane regularly give up 120+ scores, but only have 2 150+ scores against them this season 166 (R1 WC away) & 173 (R19 Port home).
Port's 173 is the season's highest score, and while the game is at the Adelaide Oval, backing a team to beat it's own season high score by 5+goals seems like a bad idea. I think you'd want closer to $16 to back this one!
 

IDIG

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I have done the Auries Star H'cap at Flemington this Saturday.
Anyone wanting a copy of the two part analysis, and the suggested bets, pm me your e-mail address.
I'd be interested to see mate. I think you should have my email addy already.
 

IDIG

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Anyone having a bet on the olympics? I have some fond memories of a tip I got from a barman from one of my locals on the massive table tennis outsider that got up. Can't quite remember at what odds but it was over $10! :eek:

Crownbet have some gold medal promo, haven't read it carefully though but looks like a fun little promo to keep you interested.
 

Rowsus

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Dangerfield has kicked at least 1 goal in 10 out of 19 games this season.
He has hit the 30 disposal mark in 11 out of 19 games this season.
He has achieved the double in 6 out of 19 games this season, and 5 out of the last 8 games.

D Martin has kicked at least 1 goal in 7 out of 19 games this season.
He has hit the 30 disposal mark in 11 out of 19 games this season.
He has achieved the double in 5 out of 19 games this season, and 3 out of the last 8 games.

Using just the last 8 games, it would appear the chances of them both achieving it this week would be: 5/8 x 3/8 = 15/64 or roughly a $4.30 chance. Sportsbet are currently offering $8 about the double-double.

They are also offering $4.50 about Johannisen kicking a Goal, and WB winning.
Johannisen has kicked a goal in 6 out of 10 games this season, and WB are $1.35.
Putting those together, it would appear to be a $2.25 chance

Both bets might worth a $10 interest bet.
 
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