Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Hi Xabi, thanks for the kind words. 
Simpson $557,400 - B/E 106 - ave 106
Boyd $556,800 - B/E 101 - ave 102
Docherty $554,700 - B/E 50 - ave 109
All 3 are priced around 110/game, and will in all likelihood come down in price at some stage. I agree with what you are saying about Docherty potentially reverting to the mean. He potentially is the one that will take the longest to drop in price, due to his current B/E. If you are worried about his scoring dropping, I'd take the one of Simpson and Boyd that fits your bye structure better. If your bye structure is sound, I'd take Boyd.
Simpson $557,400 - B/E 106 - ave 106
Boyd $556,800 - B/E 101 - ave 102
Docherty $554,700 - B/E 50 - ave 109
All 3 are priced around 110/game, and will in all likelihood come down in price at some stage. I agree with what you are saying about Docherty potentially reverting to the mean. He potentially is the one that will take the longest to drop in price, due to his current B/E. If you are worried about his scoring dropping, I'd take the one of Simpson and Boyd that fits your bye structure better. If your bye structure is sound, I'd take Boyd.
I have a question that relates more to general play than anything else.
You talk about regression to the mean, and it's something that I've definitely noticed myself. However, I wanted to ask why exactly this phenomenon occurs? For example, with Gawn he started the year wonderfully. Now, it could be viewed he's started to regress. But my (admittedly simplistic) question is, what factors into this? Is it teams tagging him etc, and will regression to the mean always have a visible factor, or can it just sometimes 'happen' (for want of a better term)?
You talk about regression to the mean, and it's something that I've definitely noticed myself. However, I wanted to ask why exactly this phenomenon occurs? For example, with Gawn he started the year wonderfully. Now, it could be viewed he's started to regress. But my (admittedly simplistic) question is, what factors into this? Is it teams tagging him etc, and will regression to the mean always have a visible factor, or can it just sometimes 'happen' (for want of a better term)?
Hey Juzzo,
a player doesn't have to do much to warrant consideration, but they have to do a bit, to convince us to trade them in.
I'd be really interested to hear how you ended up with Aliir in your team! Unless you are facing a donut, I think you nearly have to consider him a mistake, and just leave him as dead wood. There's not much value in trading him out.
Rampe's not one for me. Only 3 scores over 90 this season, and nothing to suggest he is about to break out from here. I'd leave him alone.
a player doesn't have to do much to warrant consideration, but they have to do a bit, to convince us to trade them in.
I'd be really interested to hear how you ended up with Aliir in your team! Unless you are facing a donut, I think you nearly have to consider him a mistake, and just leave him as dead wood. There's not much value in trading him out.
Rampe's not one for me. Only 3 scores over 90 this season, and nothing to suggest he is about to break out from here. I'd leave him alone.
Hey Slammer,
I wouldn't force a trade to re-open a DPP just yet. It will happen, so trade like it is not that important right now. I also wouldn't be too concerned about a Libba M7/Rookie M8 Mid right now, either. There are still plenty of teams with Libba at M6.
If you were considering BenKen or Wells to Williams, why not just do DBJ to Williams, and sit on your hands for the rest of the week? 18 trades is ok, but at least 1 trade this week, gives you another one later down the track. If you have to make another trade after that, then it does look like BenKen is the obvious target to trade out.
I wouldn't force a trade to re-open a DPP just yet. It will happen, so trade like it is not that important right now. I also wouldn't be too concerned about a Libba M7/Rookie M8 Mid right now, either. There are still plenty of teams with Libba at M6.
If you were considering BenKen or Wells to Williams, why not just do DBJ to Williams, and sit on your hands for the rest of the week? 18 trades is ok, but at least 1 trade this week, gives you another one later down the track. If you have to make another trade after that, then it does look like BenKen is the obvious target to trade out.
Selection hasn't been too bad to you.
To me, it looks like DBJ to Williams, and then Brown to Deledio/Martin.
I'd be more inclined to take Martin. Deledio might potentially average more, but I'm willing to bet, that Martin will score more points than him, from now until the finish.
Good luck, whichever way you jump.
To me, it looks like DBJ to Williams, and then Brown to Deledio/Martin.
I'd be more inclined to take Martin. Deledio might potentially average more, but I'm willing to bet, that Martin will score more points than him, from now until the finish.
Good luck, whichever way you jump.
For the base of the answer, remove all external influences: injuries, opposition, weather, injured/returning team mates etc.
What we are saying is, that a player with an established scoring pattern, which usually is fixed by 100 games and 5 seasons give or take, will score to an expected scoring level in any season. Let's say 100 just be easy. This 100 player will in all likelihood have something like 6 to 10 games in the 95 - 105 area, and 6 to 8 games that lie higher and lower than this range. What we are presuming is, that over any given period of a decent amount of games, say 16 or more, this players average will be around 100 +/- 2 to 3 points. So if the player starts: 80, 96, 75, 82, 102, 78 (ave 85), unless there is some outside influence causing a drop in scoring, we can expect he has nearly "fullfilled his quota" of lower scores, and if he is going to reach at least a 97 average from here, will average from here, he will average over 101 from now on, which should be much better than his price predicts.
If we reverse his start, and say he begins: 110, 98, 125, 102, 105, 120 (ave 110). If there are no external factors as to why this happened, we can assume he will score lower in the remaining games, and is now overpriced. If he only drops off a little from here, and ends up with a 107 season, you are best to call it a spike season, rather than calling it his new scoring level. Well at least until there is evidince to the contrary.
Just keep in mind, any player will have a variance in his scores over a season. Lots of ups and downs, and unless there is a good reason, sometimes a "clump" of good or bad scores can come early. It just means we are expecting the opposite to happen sooner or later, or the player will score outside his expected scoring pattern. Even with really good starts, it's amazing how often an average SC player will revert to his old numbers, given enough games. What's even more amazing, is the number of Coaches that want to jump on these hot streaks, only to find the player hasn't changed at all, and it really was a hot streak!
So it happens for external reasons, that we can sometimes, and sometimes not, identify. Outside of those external reasons, it happens because we expect the player to score a certain number of scores, across a certain number of ranges in a season. If the early scores fall too many to the low side, or the high side, we expect a correction, or a reversion to the mean. Otherwise, we have to redefine that player.
What we are saying is, that a player with an established scoring pattern, which usually is fixed by 100 games and 5 seasons give or take, will score to an expected scoring level in any season. Let's say 100 just be easy. This 100 player will in all likelihood have something like 6 to 10 games in the 95 - 105 area, and 6 to 8 games that lie higher and lower than this range. What we are presuming is, that over any given period of a decent amount of games, say 16 or more, this players average will be around 100 +/- 2 to 3 points. So if the player starts: 80, 96, 75, 82, 102, 78 (ave 85), unless there is some outside influence causing a drop in scoring, we can expect he has nearly "fullfilled his quota" of lower scores, and if he is going to reach at least a 97 average from here, will average from here, he will average over 101 from now on, which should be much better than his price predicts.
If we reverse his start, and say he begins: 110, 98, 125, 102, 105, 120 (ave 110). If there are no external factors as to why this happened, we can assume he will score lower in the remaining games, and is now overpriced. If he only drops off a little from here, and ends up with a 107 season, you are best to call it a spike season, rather than calling it his new scoring level. Well at least until there is evidince to the contrary.
Just keep in mind, any player will have a variance in his scores over a season. Lots of ups and downs, and unless there is a good reason, sometimes a "clump" of good or bad scores can come early. It just means we are expecting the opposite to happen sooner or later, or the player will score outside his expected scoring pattern. Even with really good starts, it's amazing how often an average SC player will revert to his old numbers, given enough games. What's even more amazing, is the number of Coaches that want to jump on these hot streaks, only to find the player hasn't changed at all, and it really was a hot streak!
So it happens for external reasons, that we can sometimes, and sometimes not, identify. Outside of those external reasons, it happens because we expect the player to score a certain number of scores, across a certain number of ranges in a season. If the early scores fall too many to the low side, or the high side, we expect a correction, or a reversion to the mean. Otherwise, we have to redefine that player.
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Hey Rowsus,
Haven't posted here for awhile, but wouldn't mind some advice. With Laird not named and Brand/Yeo omitted i'm faced with a defensive donut! This might not seem like a huge deal, but I haven't had a donut since my first year of SC! I can trade my way around it, though i'm wondering whether there's more merit in taking the short-term pain...
Def: Shaw, Laird, Z Williams, Yeo, DBJ, Byrne (Brown, Brand)
Mid: Danger, Pendles, Ward, Selwood, GAJ, JPK, Mills, BenKen (Hewett, Smith, Davis)
Ruck: Goldy, NN (Goetz)
Fwd: Zorko, Greene, Hall, Westhoff, Barlow, Kerridge (Menadue, Petracca)
Trades: 18
Cash: $14,700
Option #1 - Trade Yeo & Mills --> Rance & Mathieson (Leaves 74k cash) NO DONUT!
Option #2 - Trade Mills & BenKen? --> Priddis & Mathieson (60k cash) DONUT
Option #3 - Save trades and reassess next week, DONUT
Yeo is a point of constant frustration, and I see him as the Heritier of my 2016 season. Trading him would be a relief, though means my team makes no progress this week towards an overall 'complete' team. Whether Yeo is part of that 'complete team' or not is another contentious issue!
Skipping Priddis might mean I roll with Gray instead when he drops, leaving 1 spot for a final mid upgrade (Hanners etc)
What do you think?
Haven't posted here for awhile, but wouldn't mind some advice. With Laird not named and Brand/Yeo omitted i'm faced with a defensive donut! This might not seem like a huge deal, but I haven't had a donut since my first year of SC! I can trade my way around it, though i'm wondering whether there's more merit in taking the short-term pain...
Def: Shaw, Laird, Z Williams, Yeo, DBJ, Byrne (Brown, Brand)
Mid: Danger, Pendles, Ward, Selwood, GAJ, JPK, Mills, BenKen (Hewett, Smith, Davis)
Ruck: Goldy, NN (Goetz)
Fwd: Zorko, Greene, Hall, Westhoff, Barlow, Kerridge (Menadue, Petracca)
Trades: 18
Cash: $14,700
Option #1 - Trade Yeo & Mills --> Rance & Mathieson (Leaves 74k cash) NO DONUT!
Option #2 - Trade Mills & BenKen? --> Priddis & Mathieson (60k cash) DONUT
Option #3 - Save trades and reassess next week, DONUT
Yeo is a point of constant frustration, and I see him as the Heritier of my 2016 season. Trading him would be a relief, though means my team makes no progress this week towards an overall 'complete' team. Whether Yeo is part of that 'complete team' or not is another contentious issue!
Skipping Priddis might mean I roll with Gray instead when he drops, leaving 1 spot for a final mid upgrade (Hanners etc)
What do you think?
Hmm. I think I'll get Deledio - I like the POD aspect, and I suspect (without any study) that Martin just might be more likely to throw in the odd poor score, and it seems like you believe that their scoring potential per game to be similar, and hope that my cover is good enough if he misses - but I'll be weighing my options until the time comes. I was wondering about a gamble on Collins of Freo, but I think I'll get him for Hartley instead. Once again, thanks for your help.
Hey Rowsus,
Haven't posted here for awhile, but wouldn't mind some advice. With Laird not named and Brand/Yeo omitted i'm faced with a defensive donut! This might not seem like a huge deal, but I haven't had a donut since my first year of SC! I can trade my way around it, though i'm wondering whether there's more merit in taking the short-term pain...
Def: Shaw, Laird, Z Williams, Yeo, DBJ, Byrne (Brown, Brand)
Mid: Danger, Pendles, Ward, Selwood, GAJ, JPK, Mills, BenKen (Hewett, Smith, Davis)
Ruck: Goldy, NN (Goetz)
Fwd: Zorko, Greene, Hall, Westhoff, Barlow, Kerridge (Menadue, Petracca)
Trades: 18
Cash: $14,700
Option #1 - Trade Yeo & Mills --> Rance & Mathieson (Leaves 74k cash) NO DONUT!
Option #2 - Trade Mills & BenKen? --> Priddis & Mathieson (60k cash) DONUT
Option #3 - Save trades and reassess next week, DONUT
Yeo is a point of constant frustration, and I see him as the Heritier of my 2016 season. Trading him would be a relief, though means my team makes no progress this week towards an overall 'complete' team. Whether Yeo is part of that 'complete team' or not is another contentious issue!
Skipping Priddis might mean I roll with Gray instead when he drops, leaving 1 spot for a final mid upgrade (Hanners etc)
What do you think?
Haven't posted here for awhile, but wouldn't mind some advice. With Laird not named and Brand/Yeo omitted i'm faced with a defensive donut! This might not seem like a huge deal, but I haven't had a donut since my first year of SC! I can trade my way around it, though i'm wondering whether there's more merit in taking the short-term pain...
Def: Shaw, Laird, Z Williams, Yeo, DBJ, Byrne (Brown, Brand)
Mid: Danger, Pendles, Ward, Selwood, GAJ, JPK, Mills, BenKen (Hewett, Smith, Davis)
Ruck: Goldy, NN (Goetz)
Fwd: Zorko, Greene, Hall, Westhoff, Barlow, Kerridge (Menadue, Petracca)
Trades: 18
Cash: $14,700
Option #1 - Trade Yeo & Mills --> Rance & Mathieson (Leaves 74k cash) NO DONUT!
Option #2 - Trade Mills & BenKen? --> Priddis & Mathieson (60k cash) DONUT
Option #3 - Save trades and reassess next week, DONUT
Yeo is a point of constant frustration, and I see him as the Heritier of my 2016 season. Trading him would be a relief, though means my team makes no progress this week towards an overall 'complete' team. Whether Yeo is part of that 'complete team' or not is another contentious issue!
Skipping Priddis might mean I roll with Gray instead when he drops, leaving 1 spot for a final mid upgrade (Hanners etc)
What do you think?
I say keep your record clean, and feel the relief of removing that Yeo shaped pebble from inside your shoe!
But seriously, you will be fixing two potential problems, and avoiding donut. I know what you are saying about Yeo, is he part of a completed team or not? I say take the self righteous road, declare him not part of a completed team, and tell yourself Rance is a another to step closer to getting there! Priddis would have to go completely nuts, to be out of reach next week........ Ok, he did score 196 against GC last time, but, what are the odds?!
Thanks mate.
The Aliir trade:
It was Round 6 and trade thoughts were Fyfe (injured) out to Hannebery, which I did. And that was going to be my only trade for the round.
I was studying my team on Saturday night and came to the realisation that I will have to get rid of quite a few of my mid pricers who didn't turn out to be good picks and some rookies who I should move on. So I thought if I get rid of one of them this week, it might make it easier over the coming weeks to offload the others. But the problem was there was only one rookie to get in who was playing Sunday and that happened to be Aliir. I ummed and arrred about it, thought to myself Ted Richards is out and they are playing Brizzy, maybe this kid will string a few games together if he plays well. So I did the trade Dea out for Aliir. Bad move in the end as Aliir didn't get a touch in the second half and only 6 possies all up, then turfed the next week, never to be seen again. Oh well, I'll learn from that I hope.
Ok, so maybe I'll keep him on the def bench and use him as loop for the remainder of the year.
The Aliir trade:
It was Round 6 and trade thoughts were Fyfe (injured) out to Hannebery, which I did. And that was going to be my only trade for the round.
I was studying my team on Saturday night and came to the realisation that I will have to get rid of quite a few of my mid pricers who didn't turn out to be good picks and some rookies who I should move on. So I thought if I get rid of one of them this week, it might make it easier over the coming weeks to offload the others. But the problem was there was only one rookie to get in who was playing Sunday and that happened to be Aliir. I ummed and arrred about it, thought to myself Ted Richards is out and they are playing Brizzy, maybe this kid will string a few games together if he plays well. So I did the trade Dea out for Aliir. Bad move in the end as Aliir didn't get a touch in the second half and only 6 possies all up, then turfed the next week, never to be seen again. Oh well, I'll learn from that I hope.
Ok, so maybe I'll keep him on the def bench and use him as loop for the remainder of the year.
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Hey mate,
Currently have $311K in bank with 11 trades used and a bit stuck on this weeks trades. Strongly considering going B.Ken/Priddis then Kerrige to JJK in a double upgrade move. In your opinion do you think a downgrade is necessary this week? A bit hard to tell if there will be plenty of suitable downgrades in coming weeks.
Option B is to trade B.Ken /Hanners and then either Hartley/Williams or only make the one trade for the week... I really want Hanners in at some stage but not sure wether to grab him or Priddis.. Grabbing Priddis also gives me the opportunity to grab Kennedy this week but..
Current team is Def: H.Shaw, Docherty, Lair, M.Adams, Rich, M.Brown (Wagner, Hartley)
Mid: Danger, Selwood, T.Mithcell, Ward, Ablett, Libba, b.Kenn, J.Smith (Hewitt, Davis, Keays)
Ruck: Nic Nat, Goldy, (Cox)
FWD: D.Martin, Montagna, Hall, Kerrige, T.Greene, Wells (Petracca, Read)
Thanks in advance mate love reading your analysis.
Currently have $311K in bank with 11 trades used and a bit stuck on this weeks trades. Strongly considering going B.Ken/Priddis then Kerrige to JJK in a double upgrade move. In your opinion do you think a downgrade is necessary this week? A bit hard to tell if there will be plenty of suitable downgrades in coming weeks.
Option B is to trade B.Ken /Hanners and then either Hartley/Williams or only make the one trade for the week... I really want Hanners in at some stage but not sure wether to grab him or Priddis.. Grabbing Priddis also gives me the opportunity to grab Kennedy this week but..
Current team is Def: H.Shaw, Docherty, Lair, M.Adams, Rich, M.Brown (Wagner, Hartley)
Mid: Danger, Selwood, T.Mithcell, Ward, Ablett, Libba, b.Kenn, J.Smith (Hewitt, Davis, Keays)
Ruck: Nic Nat, Goldy, (Cox)
FWD: D.Martin, Montagna, Hall, Kerrige, T.Greene, Wells (Petracca, Read)
Thanks in advance mate love reading your analysis.
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Hey FGD,
you still have 7 to 9 upgrades to make, so you need to find a couple of "cheapies" to help you get there. Priddis certainly fills that description, so I'd definitely grab him this week. That opens the door for another upgrade, and if you like JJK, I say have at it. I wouldn't worry that you haven't made a downgrade this week. I'm making two upgrades myself this week, after a double downgrade last week.
Good luck.
you still have 7 to 9 upgrades to make, so you need to find a couple of "cheapies" to help you get there. Priddis certainly fills that description, so I'd definitely grab him this week. That opens the door for another upgrade, and if you like JJK, I say have at it. I wouldn't worry that you haven't made a downgrade this week. I'm making two upgrades myself this week, after a double downgrade last week.
Good luck.
Hey Buddy need a little help again
I have avoided sideways trading this year (besides JJ) been pretty happy with the way the Muppets have been going and i have only 3 on field spots left to upgrade (1 of Hartley/DBJ & 2 of Kerr/Petr/Mcgov).
Was going to trade DBJ out this week due to his high B/E but with Yeo being out with a Quad (how long ??) im wondering if i should hold DBJ to cover Yeo and hope he makes back what he loses over next couple of weeks or jump of now.
Also,
I am rnd 14 heavy but this is by design because i plan to sideways trade the likes of Stringer, Yeo, Libba, Wines during the bye rounds but now im wondering if i should be going early on a couple of them like Yeo who is injured or Wines who has a big B/E and set to lose a few $$ unless he can pump out a couple of 120's this week and next (on current form NO) which then makes it hard to trade him to the right premo's during the byes.
Libba and Stringer are doing the job i need of them but the other 2 are failing, should i hold the course or punt them sooner ?
Running low on cash and cashed up cows which is making the decision this week hard specially when kerridge scored well and may have a little more left in him.
My trade in target for the week was 1 of Zorko, Lids, Doc or Rance but choosing a rookie to come in with ones of those is hard with Howard, Collins and Williams the options for me. Leaning towards Collins but his a unkown and i already got burnt with redman (what was i thinking)
I have avoided sideways trading this year (besides JJ) been pretty happy with the way the Muppets have been going and i have only 3 on field spots left to upgrade (1 of Hartley/DBJ & 2 of Kerr/Petr/Mcgov).
Was going to trade DBJ out this week due to his high B/E but with Yeo being out with a Quad (how long ??) im wondering if i should hold DBJ to cover Yeo and hope he makes back what he loses over next couple of weeks or jump of now.
Also,
I am rnd 14 heavy but this is by design because i plan to sideways trade the likes of Stringer, Yeo, Libba, Wines during the bye rounds but now im wondering if i should be going early on a couple of them like Yeo who is injured or Wines who has a big B/E and set to lose a few $$ unless he can pump out a couple of 120's this week and next (on current form NO) which then makes it hard to trade him to the right premo's during the byes.
Libba and Stringer are doing the job i need of them but the other 2 are failing, should i hold the course or punt them sooner ?
Running low on cash and cashed up cows which is making the decision this week hard specially when kerridge scored well and may have a little more left in him.
My trade in target for the week was 1 of Zorko, Lids, Doc or Rance but choosing a rookie to come in with ones of those is hard with Howard, Collins and Williams the options for me. Leaning towards Collins but his a unkown and i already got burnt with redman (what was i thinking)
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Hey Buddy need a little help again
I have avoided sideways trading this year (besides JJ) been pretty happy with the way the Muppets have been going and i have only 3 on field spots left to upgrade (1 of Hartley/DBJ & 2 of Kerr/Petr/Mcgov).
Was going to trade DBJ out this week due to his high B/E but with Yeo being out with a Quad (how long ??) im wondering if i should hold DBJ to cover Yeo and hope he makes back what he loses over next couple of weeks or jump of now.
Also,
I am rnd 14 heavy but this is by design because i plan to sideways trade the likes of Stringer, Yeo, Libba, Wines during the bye rounds but now im wondering if i should be going early on a couple of them like Yeo who is injured or Wines who has a big B/E and set to lose a few $$ unless he can pump out a couple of 120's this week and next (on current form NO) which then makes it hard to trade him to the right premo's during the byes.
Libba and Stringer are doing the job i need of them but the other 2 are failing, should i hold the course or punt them sooner ?
Running low on cash and cashed up cows which is making the decision this week hard specially when kerridge scored well and may have a little more left in him.
My trade in target for the week was 1 of Zorko, Lids, Doc or Rance but choosing a rookie to come in with ones of those is hard with Howard, Collins and Williams the options for me. Leaning towards Collins but his a unkown and i already got burnt with redman (what was i thinking)
I have avoided sideways trading this year (besides JJ) been pretty happy with the way the Muppets have been going and i have only 3 on field spots left to upgrade (1 of Hartley/DBJ & 2 of Kerr/Petr/Mcgov).
Was going to trade DBJ out this week due to his high B/E but with Yeo being out with a Quad (how long ??) im wondering if i should hold DBJ to cover Yeo and hope he makes back what he loses over next couple of weeks or jump of now.
Also,
I am rnd 14 heavy but this is by design because i plan to sideways trade the likes of Stringer, Yeo, Libba, Wines during the bye rounds but now im wondering if i should be going early on a couple of them like Yeo who is injured or Wines who has a big B/E and set to lose a few $$ unless he can pump out a couple of 120's this week and next (on current form NO) which then makes it hard to trade him to the right premo's during the byes.
Libba and Stringer are doing the job i need of them but the other 2 are failing, should i hold the course or punt them sooner ?
Running low on cash and cashed up cows which is making the decision this week hard specially when kerridge scored well and may have a little more left in him.
My trade in target for the week was 1 of Zorko, Lids, Doc or Rance but choosing a rookie to come in with ones of those is hard with Howard, Collins and Williams the options for me. Leaning towards Collins but his a unkown and i already got burnt with redman (what was i thinking)
I must admit, I was surprised when I saw you had traded in Redman.
All 3 of your downgrade options are problematical. It would appear the one with the best JS is Collins, but he has two problems of course. He's a mile from hitting the bubble, and even when he does, he looks like he might be a slow burner anyway. Williams survived this week, with all the players the Bullies got back, but that's no guarantee for next week. Howards in and out, like a fart in a bottle.
Maybe Williams is the way to go.
As to the likes of Yeo and Wines and your sideways plans, it's a good plan, but requires them to hold some value for it to work. Ollie could easily drop $15-$20k this week, and be faced with an even bigger B/E next week. I think you have to jump ship before the byes, if they look like leaking too many dollars!
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