Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Maso]

Hey Maso,
I must admit, I was surprised when I saw you had traded in Redman.
All 3 of your downgrade options are problematical. It would appear the one with the best JS is Collins, but he has two problems of course. He's a mile from hitting the bubble, and even when he does, he looks like he might be a slow burner anyway. Williams survived this week, with all the players the Bullies got back, but that's no guarantee for next week. Howards in and out, like a fart in a bottle.
Maybe Williams is the way to go.
As to the likes of Yeo and Wines and your sideways plans, it's a good plan, but requires them to hold some value for it to work. Ollie could easily drop $15-$20k this week, and be faced with an even bigger B/E next week. I think you have to jump ship before the byes, if they look like leaking too many dollars!

yea thanks mate, confirmed what i was thinking wines may have to make way. yea none of the 3 rookies i was looking at last week were good options Redman dropped , Brand Dropped and Dmac injured . But i have faith Redman will be back at some stage to develop. He will be moved into the midfield soon to recreate my M/F link once Davis,Smith or Dunkley are moved on.
Think i will back DBJ to bounce back after this down patch specially with jonas out for 6 he should get dropped unless injured.

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus,
I really don't want to go near any Def/Fwd bubble boys this week and I have noone to trade out for Hopper/Mathieson. So I'm probably just going to use the existing 161k for an upgrade.
I can do either
Bryne Jones for Rich
Or
Menadue for Wingard
Or
Kennedy for Walters
Or
Kennedy for Bartel
Or
Kennedy for Gunston
Or
Kennedy for Zac Merrett
Or
Use 2 trades:
Gawn>Naitanui, Kennedy>Rance /DBJ>Bartel
Which one of these choices do you recommend, and why?

P.S. nice game by T Mitchell tonite


Cheers
Prochard

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
I really don't want to go near any Def/Fwd bubble boys this week and I have noone to trade out for Hopper/Mathieson. So I'm probably just going to use the existing 161k for an upgrade.
I can do either
Bryne Jones for Rich
Or
Menadue for Wingard
Or
Kennedy for Walters
Or
Kennedy for Bartel
Or
Kennedy for Gunston
Or
Kennedy for Zac Merrett
Or
Use 2 trades:
Gawn>Naitanui, Kennedy>Rance /DBJ>Bartel
Which one of these choices do you recommend, and why?

P.S. nice game by T Mitchell tonite


Cheers
Prochard

Rich - I've never understood the attraction with Rich. He has never posted a good SC season, yet every year people are suggesting we get him in our teams! Hasn't played a full season since 2010, and has a career best of 90.8.
Wingard - Needs to kick goals to score well. Will be up and down. Great price, so there's loads of value there. Might struggle to average mid 90's though.
Walters - everyone keeps saying, every year, Walters will play more Mid this year. It's just not happening consistently this year, which means it will never happen. Would prefer Wingard at the prices.
Bartel - like a lot of old players, his game Count and scores deteriorate as the season wears on. He's a start him or forget him option.
Gunston - he's a live option. His scores will fluctuate wildly, but will average out ok.
Merrett - only one bad score this year, and still priced reasonably.
Gawn to NicNat should only be done, if you are dead set sure Gawn is cooked. The value window has closed on it, and there's a reasonable chance he will out score NicNat this week anyway.
Take Merrett if you want consistency, or Gunston if you want some POD value, or you need more Rnd 15 Keepers.

 

[Saintellica]

Hi Rowsus,

Been keeping a keen eye on all your advice this season which as usual has been top notch.

Just curious as to whether you think Hopper is a must have downgrade option. I only really have 2 options I can see which are problematic - Brown (Fwd) out B Kennedy to (fwd) and Hopper in and lose mid-fwd link. Or sideways Gresham to Hopper to generate quicker cash as Gresham is on the ultra slow burn.

Any thoughts would be great!

cheers

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Been keeping a keen eye on all your advice this season which as usual has been top notch.

Just curious as to whether you think Hopper is a must have downgrade option. I only really have 2 options I can see which are problematic - Brown (Fwd) out B Kennedy to (fwd) and Hopper in and lose mid-fwd link. Or sideways Gresham to Hopper to generate quicker cash as Gresham is on the ultra slow burn.

Any thoughts would be great!

cheers

Hi Saint,
on the little information we have so far, Hopper isn't a must have. Unless you already have another dead wood Rookie sitting on your Mid bench, I don't see much value in trading Gresham out. If you go the BenKen route, I am sure an opportunity to re-establish your DPP link will present itself. If Hopper can get through uninjured, he should be able to make at least $150-$160k, possibly even more. His Rnd 15 bye is perfect, so if you think you need the Cash generation, then BenKen had to leave at some stage anyway!

 

[Saintellica]

Hi Saint,
on the little information we have so far, Hopper isn't a must have. Unless you already have another dead wood Rookie sitting on your Mid bench, I don't see much value in trading Gresham out. If you go the BenKen route, I am sure an opportunity to re-establish your DPP link will present itself. If Hopper can get through uninjured, he should be able to make at least $150-$160k, possibly even more. His Rnd 15 bye is perfect, so if you think you need the Cash generation, then BenKen had to leave at some stage anyway!

Thanks Rowsus for your analysis. What about Hopper in Brown (fwd) out and BKen to (fwd) or would you wait a week for Mathieson?

cheers Saint

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus for your analysis. What about Hopper in Brown (fwd) out and BKen to (fwd) or would you wait a week for Mathieson?

cheers Saint

I'd definitely wait a week on Mathieson.

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus,
I'm really keen in briniging in Rance/Wingard/Mcveigh/Deledio/Dahlhause in this round
If it's a defender I'd trade out Loneragan, Menadue if forward.
Going Libba>Mathieson so cash isn't a problem

Cheers

 

[Fiasco]

Hi Rowsus, love your work. With upgrading time in full swing just wondering if you have any stats on players that generally finish seasons off better than others. Without looking into it to much yet I think Joel Selwood is one that usually finishes seasons well and I read somewhere that Callan Ward is one that usually slows down towards the end of the season. With Ward getting cheaper at the moment I have been considering bringing him in but maybe considering this it's not the best idea. Basically I'm just wondering if there's anyone you're definitely bringing in because you know they always finish seasons well?

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Hi Row, did pretty poorly last week since I did a double downgrade and missed Tippett but now have some funds to play with.
My current FWD line is Dustin Martin, Hall, Merrett, Kerridge, Ben Ken, Petracca (Paine, Ueber).
I know that's the line that I need to fix ASAP and my 2 identified targets have always been Dahl and Zorko which I can bring in straight up for Ben Ken this week.
My plan at the moment is Ben Ken to Zorko this week and Kerridge to Dahl next week. Do you think that's the right way to go about it or do you think Zorko is now way over-priced?
I really hate paying $588k for a forward and keep telling myself that Zorko will eventually slow down but he really isn't is he?
Alternatively, I could just bring Dahl in this week and just keep hoping like mad that Zorko will eventually slow down but that means continuing to play Kerridge.

A side question: If I really wanted to bring in Mathieson this week and had to sacrifice one of Josh Smith, Hewett or Ryan Davis, who would you trade out?

Thanks for answering both my question mate, appreciated

 

[THCLT]

Hello my friend,

Firstly many congrats on some 'bold' but calculated trades of late. I, like the rest of SCS members, are very happy for you and the progress your SC team. I just hope that you still know where the handbrake is and use it when the need arise.

I really don't know what to make of my SC year this year. On the one hand, team is building nicely and am relatively happy with it, however, just can't seem to crack that BIG score to catapult me up the ranking. Hopefully, history can repeat itself and I'll finally make my move during the MBRs.

With that in mind, just wanted to sound you out on some thoughts for this round. The following are my rookie players for my current side:

D: Byrne, Adams, S Collins
M: Smith, Hewett, Davis, Keays, Menadue
F: Kerridge, Petracca, Uebergang

So 4 upgrades to go to complete team.

Options I have for this round are as follows:

1. Do nothing
2. Upgrade DEF - McVeigh
3. Upgrade MID - R Gray
4. Upgrade FWD - Dahlhaus

All above upgrades includes trading in Mathieson via Menadue.

Right now, I would have them in the following order of importance: R Gray, Dahlhaus, McVeigh. However, the only sticking point is all my 'dormant' MID rookies are starting to exhibit some cash generation potential. So grabbing Gray means I'd have to go a bit early on one of them, likely to be Hewett.

My trading over the past 2 weeks have been with the MBRs in mind and have positioned team ready to tackle this...touch wood. As it currently stands:

RD13 - 18 players, 13 premiums
RD14 - 19 players, 12 premiums
RD15 - 19 players, 11 premiums

As always, appreciate your thoughts and feedback when you have some time.

 

[whiteTiga2k]

Hi Rowsus,

First question to you this year... just wanted to pick your brain a little.

I've had it with Wines, and have decided to trade him down for Matheson - with the view of bringing in either Dahlhaus or McVeigh this week - and Sam Mitchell and the other one next week.

I'm trading Kerridge to either McVeigh or Dahlhaus... Do you think that McVeigh has possibly picked up his game and can average more this year? I need to win this weeks leagues - and so my heart is saying go Dahlhaus first as he will likely score better, and McVeigh next week - but my brain is saying go McVeigh as it will enable me to choose out of AMT or Adams to be upgraded (instead of having to definitely trade AMT next week).

 

[Capper35]

Hey Rowsus, apologies if this has been asked somewhere already in this thread but I've loved reading your RAMP analysis of the Brownlow the last two years (backed Priddis at $51 in 2014). Any chance it will be making a comeback this year?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
I'm really keen in briniging in Rance/Wingard/Mcveigh/Deledio/Dahlhause in this round
If it's a defender I'd trade out Loneragan, Menadue if forward.
Going Libba>Mathieson so cash isn't a problem

Cheers

Hey Pro,
Lonergan ---> McVeigh

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, love your work. With upgrading time in full swing just wondering if you have any stats on players that generally finish seasons off better than others. Without looking into it to much yet I think Joel Selwood is one that usually finishes seasons well and I read somewhere that Callan Ward is one that usually slows down towards the end of the season. With Ward getting cheaper at the moment I have been considering bringing him in but maybe considering this it's not the best idea. Basically I'm just wondering if there's anyone you're definitely bringing in because you know they always finish seasons well?

The short answer is "No".
If you have a look a THCLT's marvellous piece of work, where he shows how the Top averaging players at Round 10 in each of the last 4 seasons have performed after 10, you will notice there is quite a large tendency for players to tend to go backwards. There's no particular player I look to start slow, and finish hard. There are players like Buddy, that can quite often do the reverse though!

I suggest you look at the tables here: 2016: Can 10 ROUNDS Predict End of Season TOP Scorers

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row, did pretty poorly last week since I did a double downgrade and missed Tippett but now have some funds to play with.
My current FWD line is Dustin Martin, Hall, Merrett, Kerridge, Ben Ken, Petracca (Paine, Ueber).
I know that's the line that I need to fix ASAP and my 2 identified targets have always been Dahl and Zorko which I can bring in straight up for Ben Ken this week.
My plan at the moment is Ben Ken to Zorko this week and Kerridge to Dahl next week. Do you think that's the right way to go about it or do you think Zorko is now way over-priced?
I really hate paying $588k for a forward and keep telling myself that Zorko will eventually slow down but he really isn't is he?
Alternatively, I could just bring Dahl in this week and just keep hoping like mad that Zorko will eventually slow down but that means continuing to play Kerridge.

A side question: If I really wanted to bring in Mathieson this week and had to sacrifice one of Josh Smith, Hewett or Ryan Davis, who would you trade out?

Thanks for answering both my question mate, appreciated

Hi MMM,
Zorko - $585,000 - B/E 118 - Car, Fre, WC, Rich, Bye
Dahlhaus - $542,300 - B/E 123 - WC, Port, Geel, Bye, Syd

At the relative prices, and with Rocky coming back potentially having some sort of affect on Zorko, I think I'd take Dahlhaus first. Zorko's scoring is nearly falling in to the "too good to be true" catagory. At his price, I'd tread carefully.

Smith B/E 29, B/E next week ~101 - this weeks score.
Hewett B/E 23, B/E next week ~119 - this weeks score.
Davis B/E -18, B/E next week ~61 - this weeks score.

Davis has the poorest JS, but the greatest potential for immediate growth. I actually think he might be lucky to get picked this week, with all the players GC have coming back. That might make it easy for you. If I had to chop Hewett or Smith, I'd chop Hewett. His B/E next week is likely to be higher than Smith's, and Smith is likely to benefit from the injuries at Collingwood.

 

[Rowsus]

Hello my friend,

Firstly many congrats on some 'bold' but calculated trades of late. I, like the rest of SCS members, are very happy for you and the progress your SC team. I just hope that you still know where the handbrake is and use it when the need arise.

I really don't know what to make of my SC year this year. On the one hand, team is building nicely and am relatively happy with it, however, just can't seem to crack that BIG score to catapult me up the ranking. Hopefully, history can repeat itself and I'll finally make my move during the MBRs.

With that in mind, just wanted to sound you out on some thoughts for this round. The following are my rookie players for my current side:

D: Byrne, Adams, S Collins
M: Smith, Hewett, Davis, Keays, Menadue
F: Kerridge, Petracca, Uebergang

So 4 upgrades to go to complete team.

Options I have for this round are as follows:

1. Do nothing
2. Upgrade DEF - McVeigh
3. Upgrade MID - R Gray
4. Upgrade FWD - Dahlhaus

All above upgrades includes trading in Mathieson via Menadue.

Right now, I would have them in the following order of importance: R Gray, Dahlhaus, McVeigh. However, the only sticking point is all my 'dormant' MID rookies are starting to exhibit some cash generation potential. So grabbing Gray means I'd have to go a bit early on one of them, likely to be Hewett.

My trading over the past 2 weeks have been with the MBRs in mind and have positioned team ready to tackle this...touch wood. As it currently stands:

RD13 - 18 players, 13 premiums
RD14 - 19 players, 12 premiums
RD15 - 19 players, 11 premiums

As always, appreciate your thoughts and feedback when you have some time.

Hello my good friend
the only practical reason to do nothing is, if all your Rookies are going to appreciate a worthwhile amount. That doesn't appear to be the case here. Some of them will only increase by as much as your target trade ins will roughly increase. That sort of removes any reason for waiting.
Looking at your wish list, I think it comes down to Hewett or Keays to Gray. I think I'd use Hewett. Hewett's B/E next week is is approximately 119 - this weeks score, while Keays' B/E next week is approximately 94 - this weeks score. Keays' lower price also leaves him more open to a score that will promote cash generation. (Which is what you suggested anyway, but I agree with your view on this.)
Good job in setting up your bye structure. Mine has become a bit fragile, and I'll be relying heavily on selection, not to get a donut in Rnd 13!

 

[Fiasco]

Thanks Rowsus, I'll have a look.

 

[blue dreamer]

Hi Rowan, broke some rules last week by trading out Yeo and Stef before my team was complete but based on one weeks results it was a good move with O McDonald and NicNat in.

Time to regroup before the byes only really want to make one trade this week as BenKen is now leaking $.

current team is

Heater, Doc, Simmo, Bartel, B Smith, DBJ, Brand, O McDonald

Danger, Pendles, Gaz, JPK, Libba, Pridda, J Smith, Rocky, Oliver, Davis, Dunkley

NicNat, Sauce, Cox

Dusty, Buddy, Kerridge, Wells, Barlow, Petracca, BenKen, Grimley.

As you can see there are currently no active links other than Cox/Grimley and if I only do one downgrade the obvious choice for BenKen is Paine.

I am not sure of his js though, Do you think Scott Lycett could be a keeper F5,6 as an upgrade for Ben Ken?

I can afford this but would not be able to go in one trade to a Dahl/Zorko type.

This trade would also allow me to cash in Cox when he has maxed out rather than need to keep him for ruck cover

So in essence it is either one down to Paine or one up to Lycett.

Anything else would require a one up one down with Oliver to Mathieson and BenKen to probably Dahl although my strong preference this week is only one trade.

What are your thoughts, thanks in advance.

 

[Aenimist]

G'day Row,

Commiserations on your SCSMelbourne league game last week. Big Maxy as skipper proved to be the masterstroke. Shame about the poor Dees performance however...

Quick question re: Gray's possible price rise this week.

To cut a long story short, I want him badly - but it throws my team/DPP/bye structures out of whack a bit to do it. Hence I'm considering waiting a week for various reasons.

To aid me in my decision making, could you give me some possible scenarios for Gray's projected price rises next week?

- This week he's projected on SC Gold for 81 points & a $3.7K rise.
- I think he'll score 105 (with some attention from Greenwood). How much would that increase his price?
- What about a 120 score?

Cheers,
Adam