Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, feeling very down now as I copped a double injury whammy over the weekend to 2 of my premium forwards which sent my overall rankings spiralling downwards and will only be worse off this week being unable to field 18 players.
I will hold and assess Dahlhaus next week but Tippett has to go this week sadly and since my season is already in tatters, I figured I might as well trade in a good KPF for my F6 position.
Tossing up between JJK and Gunston but the choice is very hard. Would love to hear your thoughts on who you think is the better player from here on in.
Or should I just wait for next week and bring in both Montagna/Lids who should average higher?
Toby Greene with his soft upcoming draw and cheapish price is also under consideration for me.
Thank you as usual for your great help.

Hi MMM,
terrible luck last week! All we can do is soldier on!
A quick question. With the events of last week, have you now shifted your season goal to Leagues? This is important, as JJK faces Hawthorn (at Domain) in Rnd 22, SC Grand final week. Even though his Draw looks favourable in the coming weeks, his Draw around SC finals isn't so promising: Freo (at home), GWS (away), Haw (home). something that might be worth considering!
Having said that, JJK seems pretty simple. Kick 5 or more goals, score well, if not, meh!
Rnd 1 8 goals - 180
Rnd 8 5 goals - 140
Rnd 9 7 goals - 137
Rnd 10 5 goals - 146
His upcoming Draw includes: Bris (away, Rnd 13), Ess (home, Rnd 15), Carl (away, Rnd 17 MCG), Melb (home, Rnd 18), Coll (away, Rnd 19), Freo (home, Rnd 20). 6 games, where you'd expect him to get 5 or more goals in at least 3 of them. He's averaging around 78, in the games where he kicked less than 5 goals this season.
Gunston is much more reliable, and far fewer highs and lows. He's really not playing KPP forward much. Sicily and O'Brien are playing those roles more, where Gunston is playing more like a forward half of the ground Midfielder. That's a very friendly SC role!
I'm very loathed to recommend Montagna. I think the rule with older players is, start with them, or forget them. The older they are, the more their game Count, and sometimes scoring, drops off as we get further into the season. Similarly for Lids. He's not old yet, but there has to be grave concerns about his on field reliability. Also, I'm pretty sure teams have become aware, that if you stop Deledio, you nearly stop Richmond. They don't win many when he plays poorly, or misses the game. I think Greene would have you tearing your hair out. Pumped and shouting "YES!" one week, and crying and pulling your hair out, and asking "WHY?" the next week.
It might possibly be a toss up, between gunston, and JJK, as to who scores the most for the reminder of the season, but given there is a slight question mark on JJK's supply with NicNat out, and he's likely to struggle in the SC finals, I'd go Gunston for consistency.
Good luck, I hope you have a better run in the coming weeks.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, just revisiting one of my questions.

[TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Price prior to Round 10[/TD]
[TD]Round 10[/TD]
[TD]Round 11[/TD]
[TD]Round 12[/TD]
[TD]Three Round Average[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Dustin Martin[/TD]
[TD]$557, 800[/TD]
[TD]111[/TD]
[TD]74[/TD]
[TD]167[/TD]
[TD]117.3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brett Deledio[/TD]
[TD]$547, 200[/TD]
[TD]107[/TD]
[TD]91[/TD]
[TD]105[/TD]
[TD]101[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Three weeks ago I went against your preference of Dustin Martin over Brett Deledio, and once again, you've been right - at least over the short term.

You'd be having quite a season, if you had stuck to my advice!

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Hi MMM,
terrible luck last week! All we can do is soldier on!
A quick question. With the events of last week, have you now shifted your season goal to Leagues? This is important, as JJK faces Hawthorn (at Domain) in Rnd 22, SC Grand final week. Even though his Draw looks favourable in the coming weeks, his Draw around SC finals isn't so promising: Freo (at home), GWS (away), Haw (home). something that might be worth considering!
Having said that, JJK seems pretty simple. Kick 5 or more goals, score well, if not, meh!
Rnd 1 8 goals - 180
Rnd 8 5 goals - 140
Rnd 9 7 goals - 137
Rnd 10 5 goals - 146
His upcoming Draw includes: Bris (away, Rnd 13), Ess (home, Rnd 15), Carl (away, Rnd 17 MCG), Melb (home, Rnd 18), Coll (away, Rnd 19), Freo (home, Rnd 20). 6 games, where you'd expect him to get 5 or more goals in at least 3 of them. He's averaging around 78, in the games where he kicked less than 5 goals this season.
Gunston is much more reliable, and far fewer highs and lows. He's really not playing KPP forward much. Sicily and O'Brien are playing those roles more, where Gunston is playing more like a forward half of the ground Midfielder. That's a very friendly SC role!
I'm very loathed to recommend Montagna. I think the rule with older players is, start with them, or forget them. The older they are, the more their game Count, and sometimes scoring, drops off as we get further into the season. Similarly for Lids. He's not old yet, but there has to be grave concerns about his on field reliability. Also, I'm pretty sure teams have become aware, that if you stop Deledio, you nearly stop Richmond. They don't win many when he plays poorly, or misses the game. I think Greene would have you tearing your hair out. Pumped and shouting "YES!" one week, and crying and pulling your hair out, and asking "WHY" the next week.
It might possibly be a toss up, between gunston, and JJK, as to who scores the most for the reminder of the season, but given there is a slight question mark on JJK's supply with NicNat out, and he's likely to struggle in the SC finals, I'd go Gunston for consistency.
Good luck, I hope you have a better run in the coming weeks.

Thanks for your response mate, much appreciated as usual.
The unfortunate events of last week combined with this week (will definitely be eating a donut even with 3 trades) has definitely got me thinking about leagues more than overall now.
Having said that, I always try to plan with some sort of view to finishing as high as I can overall because I find that you'll win most league games with that mindset anyway.
I was pretty much set on Gunston before seeing your response and you have certainly reinforced to me that Gunston is the way to go, especially with a friendlier SC finals draw.
It's funny that outside of Zorko, I need one more genuine forward premo to complete my line and it was between Lids and Montagna, both of whom you do not seem keen with valid reason.
May I then ask who do you think should be that last forward upgrade for my team?

 

[Rowsus]

I was looking at next weeks trades earlier and considering Deledio, what do you think he can score from here, or do you think it would be better to avoid him with Richmonds season all but over?

If I was going to bring a forward in, Deledio would be right in the mix. I was hoping for Zorko like scores, where, excluding the last fortnight, Zorko has been a consistent 110ish player. I brought Deledio in with the hope that he'd be around that area, and that Dustin Martin would be far more volatile. Whilst Martin did drop a 74, I was expecting his high to be around 135ish, and these big scores throw a spanner in predictive works.

I reckon Deledio will average around 107 from now.on - but he has the potential to go way up into the 110's. Whilst he used to be extremely durable, there are question marks over his ability to stay on the park.

Therefore, ask yourself:

Am I prepared to bring in a player with a seemingly heightened risk of missing a or more game(s)?

If you have the trades, the structure, or the backup, I'd seriously consider him. He's a pretty good POD option, and he does have the pedigree.

Of course, freak things happen to anyone, like Dahlhaus shows.

If you have decent options to come on in the event of a one-week layoff, like a Kerridge type, or if you have plenty of DPP links to effectively give you extra coverage, then I reckon the risk is worthwhile.

As mentioned a couple of times, I really have trouble strongly recommending Deledio to anybody. The unknowns of missed games, and opposition attention just put him in the too hard basket for mine.
In 2014 Richmond won 11 of the 18 games Deledio played in.
Deledio averaged 87 in the 7 losing games, and apart from Round 1's 136, his highest score in a loss was 92.
In 2015 Richmond won 14 of the 17 games Deledio played in.
Deledio averaged 94 in losing games, and 117 in winning games in 2015.
In 2016 Richmond have won 4 of the 7 games Deledio has played.
Losing scores: 89, 64, 91 - Winning scores: 125, 97, 105, 107
His lowest winning score is higher than highest losing score.
Teams have worked out. Stop Deledio, and you are 3/4's of the way to stopping Richmond. Richmond are 1 win, 4 losses without Deledio in the team so far this season, which is coincidently exactly what they were in 2015 without Deledio. With 10 games to go, I have Richmond marked as 2 games as probable wins, 3 coin toss games, and 5 probable losses. I think there are two problems in getting Deledio this season. I think his average mightn't quite rise to hoped levels, and I think he'll miss further games. I will guess 8 games at 95 from here, which PIT70's out to 90/game.

 

[TopGrizzly]

I do have a reputation of responding to every question put to me.

Your team has way too many Midpricers, and not enough solid Keepers. It's likely you won't be able to complete a solid team of Keepers from here. let's look at the break up of your team.

10 Keepers, 6 Midpricers, and you already have all the current downgrade targets!
I do have to ask, how and why did you bench M Crouch last week, but still fielded both Parish and Keays?
Your Midpricers need to be played before your Rookies, or you need to trade those Midpricers out!
Your Forward line, Ruck and Midfield will do for the moment, but your Def line needs an awful lot of work!
Normally I'd say trade out Papley, but there are no downgrade targets. So you need to trade out Parish, probably to Trengove, and then upgrade Brown in your Defence. You're going to need some value picks along the way, if you are going to get anywhere near a full team. You also have no Round 13 Defenders at all on your list, and will have bye problems coming up. With that in mind, I suggest you get Rance.

Good luck, let's see if we can get this team climbing the Rankings!

Awesome, thanks! A lot of pointers in your (very detailed) response that i hadn't really considered! Unfortunately, I was 10k short of getting trengove in so had to settle for Stewart instead.

Looking at the bye rounds, my friend made a bye round analysis spreadsheet, which i stole (LINK sorry, no formulas - values copy-pasted from excel)



Despite my horrible defense, it looks like i'll have at least 18 playing each round. You mentioned that I should trade papley out. Seeing as i have 23 playing this week, I was considering doing that. To address the problem of too many midpricers, I could trade out a couple of them and get Trengove and two keepers.

E.g.
OUT - Papley, Liberatore, Zaharakis
IN - Gunston, Selwood, Trengove
(I do want to remove Dempsey from existence, but I wouldn't have enough $ for the two keepers)

Would appreciate your thoughts on this. Link to my team: http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/afl/classic/other_teams/?tid=140872

Hey Top.
You may not be aware, but I live in Denmark! I'm off to bed now, and have a bit of Work to do in the morning. I should be on here, looking at your team around 3.00-3.30pm Melbourne time, and hope to have something up for you about 4pm Melbourne time.

 

[Snowman]

I can't put my finger on anything specific, though I'm not sure he is as hard as some Midfielders. In the GC game he looked set for a 120+ score, then a couple of minutes before half time, he copped an elbow in the face. He only gathered 6 more disposals in the 2nd half, and didn't miss the next week. That could lead you to think he doesn't cope with pain/discomfort as well as some Mids. Some Mids thrive on that sort of stuff, and it only makes them go harder. Ward just seems to throw in those 3 or 4 disappointing scores each season. It's about the only thing holding him back, from being a bankable Super Prem, I reckon.

Hey Rowsus
Never actually posted here before, so I'd like to firstly compliment you on your fine work and statistical research you so openly share. But I really have to say I find your summation of Ward EXTRAORDINARY. Whilst I agree he has his limitations, but to question his hardness, I wouldn't have thought that was one.
Just an opinion but I'd actually say he was one of the most honest and courageous players in the comp.

 

[Eagling]

As mentioned a couple of times, I really have trouble strongly recommending Deledio to anybody. The unknowns of missed games, and opposition attention just put him in the too hard basket for mine.
In 2014 Richmond won 11 of the 18 games Deledio played in.
Deledio averaged 87 in the 7 losing games, and apart from Round 1's 136, his highest score in a loss was 92.
In 2015 Richmond won 14 of the 17 games Deledio played in.
Deledio averaged 94 in losing games, and 117 in winning games in 2015.
In 2016 Richmond have won 4 of the 7 games Deledio has played.
Losing scores: 89, 64, 91 - Winning scores: 125, 97, 105, 107
His lowest winning score is higher than highest losing score.
Teams have worked out. Stop Deledio, and you are 3/4's of the way to stopping Richmond. Richmond are 1 win, 4 losses without Deledio in the team so far this season, which is coincidently exactly what they were in 2015 without Deledio. With 10 games to go, I have Richmond marked as 2 games as probable wins, 3 coin toss games, and 5 probable losses. I think there are two problems in getting Deledio this season. I think his average mightn't quite rise to hoped levels, and I think he'll miss further games. I will guess 8 games at 95 from here, which PIT70's out to 90/game.

Since I've got Deledio, I can only hope you're underestimating Deledio's scoring to come, but I'd certainly advise anyone to give greater weight to your judgement.

 

[bomberboy]

Hey Rowsus
Never actually posted here before, so I'd like to firstly compliment you on your fine work and statistical research you so openly share. But I really have to say I find your summation of Ward EXTRAORDINARY. Whilst I agree he has his limitations, but to question his hardness, I wouldn't have thought that was one.
Just an opinion but I'd actually say he was one of the most honest and courageous players in the comp.

I second this. I'd argue Ward would be in the top handful of hard nuts in that team. Watching him play, he's always in and under.

 

[blue dreamer]

As mentioned a couple of times, I really have trouble strongly recommending Deledio to anybody. The unknowns of missed games, and opposition attention just put him in the too hard basket for mine.
In 2014 Richmond won 11 of the 18 games Deledio played in.
Deledio averaged 87 in the 7 losing games, and apart from Round 1's 136, his highest score in a loss was 92.
In 2015 Richmond won 14 of the 17 games Deledio played in.
Deledio averaged 94 in losing games, and 117 in winning games in 2015.
In 2016 Richmond have won 4 of the 7 games Deledio has played.
Losing scores: 89, 64, 91 - Winning scores: 125, 97, 105, 107
His lowest winning score is higher than highest losing score.
Teams have worked out. Stop Deledio, and you are 3/4's of the way to stopping Richmond. Richmond are 1 win, 4 losses without Deledio in the team so far this season, which is coincidently exactly what they were in 2015 without Deledio. With 10 games to go, I have Richmond marked as 2 games as probable wins, 3 coin toss games, and 5 probable losses. I think there are two problems in getting Deledio this season. I think his average mightn't quite rise to hoped levels, and I think he'll miss further games. I will guess 8 games at 95 from here, which PIT70's out to 90/game.

Sounds like I might give him a miss then, Thanks Rowan & Eagling.

 

[Manikato1]

Hi Man1,
he's certainly a high risk play, but your analysis seems ok. Only 1 MCG game, 2 interstate games, and 7 Simonds and Etihad games to come. It would seem give him the opportunity to get on a bit of a streak. I wouldn't be getting him, but here's the thing. If you want him, you should grab him soon, as it's too late to grab him if he suddenly goes 130 and 140 in consecutive weeks, as the cream is gone then. Tough call, but a gutsy call if you can get him before he lights up. Then you just have to hope he does light up, at some stage!

Thanks for your thoughts Rowsus. The trigger has been pulled.

 

[All is Wells]

Hi AiW, all is well with me, and i'm hoping it is likewise for you.
let me answer the easy bit first, even though it's a question you didn't ask. I'm not sure Gray is the answer, if Priddis isn't. I haven't looked at the Priddis numbers yet, but let's look at the Gray numbers first!
Gray's scores in 2015, when Wines didn't play:
DNP, 134, 143, 134, 90, 131, 118, 87, 121 - 8 games at 120
Gray's score in 2015, when Wines did play:
122, 114, 73, 119, 136, 87, 95, 63, 123, 113, 122, 81, 113 - 13 games at 105
Grays average in 2016 so far, after playing every game with Wines - 104!
His scoring is too inconsistent, when Wines plays. He can still hit good scores, but is more likely to hit a bad one with Wines in the side. That's his last 25 games with Wines at a consistent 104-105 average, over 2 seasons!
Priddis
Last 3 seasons 55 games at 111
With NicNat 51 games at 112
Without NicNat 4 games at 97
It's too small of a sample pool to be definitive, but it does give you reason to pause!

Appreciate the response Rowsus. Looks like my Friday will be spent considering some other mid premium options.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rows,

Thanks again for the assistance last week. Took Rocky instead of Dahlhaus.
Turned out pretty good.
Looking at this week I am gonna struggle to get 18 this week.
Only 14 trades left so getting worried.
Thinking JSmith has to go for Trengove to give us another RD13 but from there I am stuck.
Hutchings, Tippa, Davis, Keays, Ruggles are all in my sights to get rid of but apart from Davis they are all likely to play. Davis will not give me enough cash to upgrade to anyone and the rest will not make any change to RD13 players.
Hutchings to ZMerritt or Gunston would be nice but still would leave only 17 rd13 players.
Similiar to others my question is
Do I bring in key position player like Gunston or a mid in ZMerritt this week via Hutchings?
Or just hold with the one trade in Smith to Trengove and see how things pan out next week and cop the low score.

Cheers

Hey Slammer,
well done on Rocky over Dahl, and I think keeping Hutch over Ben Ken was right too.
I guess the easiest way to answer your question, is to ask you a question back. If Davis was playing, and it gave you 18 players, would you still be going Hutch to Gunston/Zerrett? If the answer is yes, then do it, if the answer is no, then just hold.
I prefer Gunston to Zerrett, but not with so much conviction, that I'd say definitely don't get Zerrett.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, hope you're well. I'm currently sitting 343 points behind the leader, in 65th place. My question is a 2 pronged one, one relating to strategy, and one relating to players.

First off, am I realistically within striking range? I like to believe that I am. However, I don't know what history can tell us about this, and if Im not, well I think it's better to know now then later I guess. I hope I am though!

My second question is one of players. I have a round 13 mid in mind, however I thought I would ask if there are other, better options. Are there any standout round 13 mids in your opinion?

Cheers in advance!

Hey bb, I'm well, and I hope you are too. Congratulations on the job done so far. I hope you can keep it going.
There is no doubt you are realistically within striking range, so keep going like you intend to win it, I say.
Rnd 13 Mids. Ownership in top 100
Ade - Sloane 5
Carl - Cripps 15, Gibbs, Murphy
Coll - Pendlebury 80, Treloar 7, Sidebottom 3
GCS - Ablett 91
Rich - Cotchin 1
StK - Steven 1

In your situation, every Keeper you bring in is either closing a POD those in front of you have, or creating a POD that will hopefully help you make ground on those in front of you. To that aim, you have to decide how many POD's you need on the leaders, and which Prems you definitely have to match them on. You definitely can't beat them, if you build a very similar team to them, that's for sure.

Sloane - Adelaide certainly have a friendly Draw in the second half of the season. He's averaged over 110 before, so he has the pedigree. Currently averaging around the same in wins and losses.
Treloar - Averaging 121 in wins, and 102 in losses this season, and with Collingwood having a toughish Draw, I'm not confident he will be the 110 player you need.
Sidebottom - hasn't gone under 126 in the 3 wins he has played in this year, and is averaging 94 in losses, as said of Treloar, Collingwood have a toughish Draw!
Cotchin - His only season above 106 (2013) was in 2012 when he got 116. He has only gone under 100 twice this season, and has scores in losses of: 107, 129, 104, 117, 66, 115. That's pretty useful, as Richmond might only win between 2 and 5 of their last 10 games. He's averaging 30 disposals/game, which is a career high, and compares favourably with his 2 best seasons, 2012 (28) and 2013 (26). People will laugh, but I think he's a live chance to be a good pick!
Steven - The number 4 player in competition for average in the last 5 weeks, with only Dangerfield, Shaw and Pendlebury above him. St Kilda have won 3 of those 5 games, and Steven is averaging 137 in wins this season, and 91 in losses. St kilda might win 4 more games in the last 10. At his current win/loss average, he'd average 109 from here. I'm not sure I'd want to be on a player who needs wins to score well, if his team might only score 4 wins from here though.
To be honest, I'm not in love with any of them. I think it comes down to Sloane and Cotchin. I think they'll both be decent POD's in the top 100 Ranked teams, even after the byes, but Cotchin will be a bigger POD than Sloane. If I had a gun to my head, I'd say Sloane, but geez, wouldn't you like to be one of only 2 or 3 that owned Cotchin in the top 100, if he went 115!
Good luck, which ever way you go!

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for your response mate, much appreciated as usual.
The unfortunate events of last week combined with this week (will definitely be eating a donut even with 3 trades) has definitely got me thinking about leagues more than overall now.
Having said that, I always try to plan with some sort of view to finishing as high as I can overall because I find that you'll win most league games with that mindset anyway.
I was pretty much set on Gunston before seeing your response and you have certainly reinforced to me that Gunston is the way to go, especially with a friendlier SC finals draw.
It's funny that outside of Zorko, I need one more genuine forward premo to complete my line and it was between Lids and Montagna, both of whom you do not seem keen with valid reason.
May I then ask who do you think should be that last forward upgrade for my team?

Always happy to help, MMM.
If you think you may possibly want JJK to finish your Forward line, you need to get him this week, instead of Gunston. He could go huge against Brisbane, and there is no use getting him in 2 or 3 weeks, and missing that score.
Even though you have been burnt by Tippett in Ruck cover, come on over and join quite a few of us waiting on the bench, waiting to see what Lycett produces in Round 15, to see if he'll be a bargain or a blunder in Round 16!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus
Never actually posted here before, so I'd like to firstly compliment you on your fine work and statistical research you so openly share. But I really have to say I find your summation of Ward EXTRAORDINARY. Whilst I agree he has his limitations, but to question his hardness, I wouldn't have thought that was one.
Just an opinion but I'd actually say he was one of the most honest and courageous players in the comp.

I second this. I'd argue Ward would be in the top handful of hard nuts in that team. Watching him play, he's always in and under.

Hey Snow, bb.
I will concede I could have worded, or explained that one better.
I have two friends that played at our local Club. No one could ever accuse them of shirking an issue. Ever. Both went in to get the ball as hard as any other player on the team, probably even harder than the rest of the team. One of them regularly seemed to smother kicks with his face, rather than his hands/arms (he probably didn't, but it sure looked like he did). The other would go into a pack as hard as anyone I ever saw. Here's the thing though, the one that used to smother the ball with his head, would keep going, doing that sort of thing all day, even if he broke his nose, which he did a few times, got black eyes, or whatever. If they didn't carry him off the ground half unconscious, he'd be out there doing the hard things, every time he was near the ball. Now, while no one would ever question the courage, or commitment of the other guy, it was sometimes noticeable if he got hurt, that his efforts might drop off. I mean really hurt, not just a backhander across the face. He'd still be out their trying, and was probably still putting in hard efforts more than quite a few in the team, but you could see a difference in his game, when he got hurt during the game.
There are players in the AFL like the first guy, and you sometimes just can't tell how hurt they are, until you get the injury report in a day or two after the match. They just keep going, no matter what, until someone drags them off. Ward is more like the second guy. No one would question his courage, but sometimes, not often, you can see that a hard whack, or a cork, is really affecting his output, and his input. For a quarter, or a half, they don't quite have the desire for the contest, they might usually have. Remember, I'm not just talking about a back hander across the face here.
I hope that explains it better.

 

[Slammer]

Hey Slammer,
well done on Rocky over Dahl, and I think keeping Hutch over Ben Ken was right too.
I guess the easiest way to answer your question, is to ask you a question back. If Davis was playing, and it gave you 18 players, would you still be going Hutch to Gunston/Zerrett? If the answer is yes, then do it, if the answer is no, then just hold.
I prefer Gunston to Zerrett, but not with so much conviction, that I'd say definitely don't get Zerrett.

Thanks Rows,

I guess my only concern is that there is not many fwds left to pick from with Dahl going down. Hutchings is never going to be a top premo fwd by the looks so is it better to offload him now and Hutchings while I can just afford it this week? Otherwise he will be out of my reach. ?

 

[bomberboy]

Hey bb, I'm well, and I hope you are too. Congratulations on the job done so far. I hope you can keep it going.
There is no doubt you are realistically within striking range, so keep going like you intend to win it, I say.
Rnd 13 Mids. Ownership in top 100
Ade - Sloane 5
Carl - Cripps 15, Gibbs, Murphy
Coll - Pendlebury 80, Treloar 7, Sidebottom 3
GCS - Ablett 91
Rich - Cotchin 1
StK - Steven 1

In your situation, every Keeper you bring in is either closing a POD those in front of you have, or creating a POD that will hopefully help you make ground on those in front of you. To that aim, you have to decide how many POD's you need on the leaders, and which Prems you definitely have to match them on. You definitely can't beat them, if you build a very similar team to them, that's for sure.

Sloane - Adelaide certainly have a friendly Draw in the second half of the season. He's averaged over 110 before, so he has the pedigree. Currently averaging around the same in wins and losses.
Treloar - Averaging 121 in wins, and 102 in losses this season, and with Collingwood having a toughish Draw, I'm not confident he will be the 110 player you need.
Sidebottom - hasn't gone under 126 in the 3 wins he has played in this year, and is averaging 94 in losses, as said of Treloar, Collingwood have a toughish Draw!
Cotchin - His only season above 106 (2013) was in 2012 when he got 116. He has only gone under 100 twice this season, and has scores in losses of: 107, 129, 104, 117, 66, 115. That's pretty useful, as Richmond might only win between 2 and 5 of their last 10 games. He's averaging 30 disposals/game, which is a career high, and compares favourably with his 2 best seasons, 2012 (28) and 2013 (26). People will laugh, but I think he's a live chance to be a good pick!
Steven - The number 4 player in competition for average in the last 5 weeks, with only Dangerfield, Shaw and Pendlebury above him. St Kilda have won 3 of those 5 games, and Steven is averaging 137 in wins this season, and 91 in losses. St kilda might win 4 more games in the last 10. At his current win/loss average, he'd average 109 from here. I'm not sure I'd want to be on a player who needs wins to score well, if his team might only score 4 wins from here though.
To be honest, I'm not in love with any of them. I think it comes down to Sloane and Cotchin. I think they'll both be decent POD's in the top 100 Ranked teams, even after the byes, but Cotchin will be a bigger POD than Sloane. If I had a gun to my head, I'd say Sloane, but geez, wouldn't you like to be one of only 2 or 3 that owned Cotchin in the top 100, if he went 115!
Good luck, which ever way you go!

Thankyou for that Rowsus! I will say, you've helped me decide I think. You spoke favourably of the player I want. Hopefully it works and I can keep going!

 

[bloke]

Hi Row, not sure if you'll get time to get around to this before bounce down, if not its fine.

What's your take on Stef Martin at his price? I saw you said Brisbane have a favourable ruck draw, and he's been given the all clear to be number one ruck from here on.

I'm really trying to find value in players and obviously it Stef pays off he's a steal. Would you consider he $240k difference (and in my case a probably trade) over someone like Gawn worth it? I supposed it depends where the cash is spent, and in my case it's with either a saved trade or upgrade of Rance over Adams (with Adams still covering) PLUS Merrett over Greene.

I don't know if I'm reading too much into a saved trade and if the risk is worth it. Just want your opinion on it. Thanks

 

[Rowsus]

Awesome, thanks! A lot of pointers in your (very detailed) response that i hadn't really considered! Unfortunately, I was 10k short of getting trengove in so had to settle for Stewart instead.

Looking at the bye rounds, my friend made a bye round analysis spreadsheet, which i stole (LINK sorry, no formulas - values copy-pasted from excel)

View attachment 1485

Despite my horrible defense, it looks like i'll have at least 18 playing each round. You mentioned that I should trade papley out. Seeing as i have 23 playing this week, I was considering doing that. To address the problem of too many midpricers, I could trade out a couple of them and get Trengove and two keepers.

E.g.
OUT - Papley, Liberatore, Zaharakis
IN - Gunston, Selwood, Trengove
(I do want to remove Dempsey from existence, but I wouldn't have enough $ for the two keepers)

Would appreciate your thoughts on this. Link to my team: http://supercoach.heraldsun.com.au/afl/classic/other_teams/?tid=140872

Hey Top.
You may not be aware, but I live in Denmark! I'm off to bed now, and have a bit of Work to do in the morning. I should be on here, looking at your team around 3.00-3.30pm Melbourne time, and hope to have something up for you about 4pm Melbourne time.

One of the problems you are facing, is that team has a very low dollar value. You are going to have to get every increase you can. with that in mind, you need to hang onto Libba this week, as his B/E is low, and he still might end up being a Keeper in your team. He's certainly being looked at as a Keeper in teams well above both you and I, so hold him for now.
I think you are on track with your other two trades. Zaha to Trengove, and Papley to Gunston. I think that leaves you a little over $148k in the bank.
Nice work!

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rows,

I guess my only concern is that there is not many fwds left to pick from with Dahl going down. Hutchings is never going to be a top premo fwd by the looks so is it better to offload him now and Hutchings while I can just afford it this week? Otherwise he will be out of my reach. ?

Happy to help, as always.
I'm not sure exactly what you are saying there, but Zerrett has a B/E of 80, Gunston 95 and Hutchings 57. If you are worried someone is getting out of range for you, then pull the trigger. I know Hutch will never be a Prem, or even sub Prem player, but it would seem a pity to trade him out now, just when he might actually do what you got him for. He has to go at some stage, but if he can knock out a score against Brisbane, you have the opportunity to get some cash out of him.