Questions For Rowsus

Deeman1

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Hi Rowan,

Trust you are well.

Been a while since I have posed a question for you and given my current situation with trades this is probably going to be the last oppurtunity I will get.

My question revolves around Rockliff, I currently have him sitting at M8, which is proving to be a major problem. I have 2 trades left and 100k. Ideally I would hold of fixing him for probably 2 rounds, but given he has a break even of 130ish, this will be the highest value in the short term he will have. As I said I have 100k in cash and given Rocky's current value of $446k that gives me $546k ish to play with so currently he guys such as Macrae, Kelly, Zorko, Crouch are all with in reach, Kelly is probably my prefered option out of that lot.

League results are probably not as important as over all position (currenly 851 overall), but most important leagues I'm sitting 5th-7th (incl SCS PL).

I'm intereted in your thoughts as to whether I should I bite the bullet and trade Rocky and go down to 1 trade or hold fire and wait to see what happens for the next couple of weeks?

Thanks in advance :)
 

Saintellica

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Hi Rowsus,

Hope you are well and have once again enjoyed reading your posts over the season.

Haven't needed to ask any questions this season as you have answered anything that I have thought of over the year for other coaches, but have this one to finish off the season.

Need to improve 2 of 3 lines but not sure which way to go.

Side is:
DEF: Lloyd Yeo Laird Brayshaw McGovern Hibberd - O'Riordan Austin
MID: Mitchell Cripps Dangerfield Gaff Kelly Coniglio Martin Rockliff - Ahern Coffield Giro
RUCKS: Gawn Martin - Olango
FWD: Smith Wingard Gray Heeney Petracca Billings - Fritsch Battle

Defence: Hibberd (D6) to ???
Mid: Rockliff (M8) to ???
Fwd: Petracca (F5) Billings (F6) Fritsch (F7)

With Hibberd out to R21 seems he has to finally go.

Is it best to upgrade Mid or Fwd with the other trade and which forward to toss out.

6 Trades - $198,800 to spend

Any thoughts on whether Mid or Fwd upgrade will get me more points?

Any wisdom appreciated.

Cheers Saint
 

Adrenaline

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Hi row

Just wanted to grab your throughts on macrae? He has has relatively easy finals draw. Do you see him as a player that should be considered as a trade in target? Can he average 115 from here?
 

Beg2Differ

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Left field question Rowsus.

Do you find it easier to give advice on other people’s teams than you do making decisions on your own team?
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowan,

Trust you are well.

Been a while since I have posed a question for you and given my current situation with trades this is probably going to be the last oppurtunity I will get.

My question revolves around Rockliff, I currently have him sitting at M8, which is proving to be a major problem. I have 2 trades left and 100k. Ideally I would hold of fixing him for probably 2 rounds, but given he has a break even of 130ish, this will be the highest value in the short term he will have. As I said I have 100k in cash and given Rocky's current value of $446k that gives me $546k ish to play with so currently he guys such as Macrae, Kelly, Zorko, Crouch are all with in reach, Kelly is probably my prefered option out of that lot.

League results are probably not as important as over all position (currenly 851 overall), but most important leagues I'm sitting 5th-7th (incl SCS PL).

I'm intereted in your thoughts as to whether I should I bite the bullet and trade Rocky and go down to 1 trade or hold fire and wait to see what happens for the next couple of weeks?

Thanks in advance :)
Hi Ash,
normally I'd say either go for it, or find a swingman you can float and loop.
Looking at your bench cover, I think you should hold off using that trade for now. Your bench cover could quite easily fall to 2 or 3 players on any given week, and that's too fragile this far out.
While the League results are secondary, they can also add some late season enjoyment. While it's probable a lot of your preffered targets might get out of a Rocky + trade range, I think it is more prudent you hold off until preferably Round 21 to use that 2nd last trade, unless you really want to throw caution to the wind, and take Kelly now.
Good luck, I hope it works out either way!
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Hope you are well and have once again enjoyed reading your posts over the season.

Haven't needed to ask any questions this season as you have answered anything that I have thought of over the year for other coaches, but have this one to finish off the season.

Need to improve 2 of 3 lines but not sure which way to go.

Side is:
DEF: Lloyd Yeo Laird Brayshaw McGovern Hibberd - O'Riordan Austin
MID: Mitchell Cripps Dangerfield Gaff Kelly Coniglio Martin Rockliff - Ahern Coffield Giro
RUCKS: Gawn Martin - Olango
FWD: Smith Wingard Gray Heeney Petracca Billings - Fritsch Battle

Defence: Hibberd (D6) to ???
Mid: Rockliff (M8) to ???
Fwd: Petracca (F5) Billings (F6) Fritsch (F7)

With Hibberd out to R21 seems he has to finally go.

Is it best to upgrade Mid or Fwd with the other trade and which forward to toss out.

6 Trades - $198,800 to spend

Any thoughts on whether Mid or Fwd upgrade will get me more points?

Any wisdom appreciated.

Cheers Saint
Hi Saint,
I think there is more potential for improving your score by upgrading your Mids, than your Fwds.
I'd be looking at Pendlebury, who has grown a leg since Treloar got injured. Neale who has 4 of last 5 games at home. or Zerrett, who has posted only one poorish score since Round 9!
Then maybe look at Hibberd to TMac, or even Ryan, using the same 4 out of 5 at home argument as Neale.
Ryan's home scores this year are: 106, 92, 85, 125, 136, 106, 53, 140 - 8/105
Good luck!
 

Rowsus

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Hi row

Just wanted to grab your throughts on macrae? He has has relatively easy finals draw. Do you see him as a player that should be considered as a trade in target? Can he average 115 from here?
Hi ad,
he's one I'd be pretty cautious with. It would be foolish to say he can't average 115 for the remainder of the season, but on the other hand, he has definitely been punching above his weight early in the season. I'd prefer to go to other options, myself, but I can understand anyone wanting to grab him.
 

Rowsus

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Left field question Rowsus.

Do you find it easier to give advice on other people’s teams than you do making decisions on your own team?
Hi B2D,
I definitely find it easier to give advice on other peoples teams. I find myself taking too many risks with my own team, and treading the POD path just a little too much. Part of this is because I am precluded from any prizes, as I reside in Denmark, part of it my nature to risk backing my opinion, even if sometimes the odds seem stacked against it.
When advising others, I generally try to get a feel for where they are at, and unless otherwise expressed, I take a more conservative approach in my advice to them. Sometimes someone will be looking for a leftfield value pick, as they are sitting 20,000+th, just want to see what they can do. This lets me get off the well worn path, which I enjoy a bit more than the playing a straight bat type of advice.
 

PC

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Hi Rowsus - do you think Aliir can keep up his run of scoring? Cheers in advance! :)
 

Green Acres

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Hi Rowsus, just an appreciation of your sig.. "We're goin' to need a bigger boat". I agree with this as the correct quote, but of course history is now saying the quote is "You're goin' to need a bigger boat" ! Which makes no sense, no sense at all from a writer's point of view and from logic.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus - do you think Aliir can keep up his run of scoring? Cheers in advance! :)
I'm going to say no.
6 games played this year, for: 32, 91, 64, 102, 97, 117
He was priced at $218,100 after Sydneys bye, and has gone 4/95 since then!
A lot will depend on who is playing along side him, and who Sydney play, but it seems unlikely he can keep his post bye 95 average going.
 
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Seedsman

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Hi Rowsus,

I have 4 trades left and $82,600 in the bank. I am focusing on a cash league (however half goes to overall points winner too which I hold a 260 point lead). My two options this week are Bont to Macrae or Selwood to Kelly. I'm unsure which way to lean as the team second in points has Macrae, but Selwood is killing me!

Cheers
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

I have 4 trades left and $82,600 in the bank. I am focusing on a cash league (however half goes to overall points winner too which I hold a 260 point lead). My two options this week are Bont to Macrae or Selwood to Kelly. I'm unsure which way to lean as the team second in points has Macrae, but Selwood is killing me!

Cheers
Hi Seedsman,
I must apologise, I've been meaning to get to this all week! :(
It's too late now, of course, as the Selwood boat has sailed for this week.
It sure is a tough decision. Close a POD, or dump someone underperforming.
I'm hoping you went with Bont to Macrae, but given all the talk about Selwood playing behind the ball, I might have gone with that, myself. I really hope you jumped the right way!
 

Seedsman

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Hi Seedsman,
I must apologise, I've been meaning to get to this all week! :(
It's too late now, of course, as the Selwood boat has sailed for this week.
It sure is a tough decision. Close a POD, or dump someone underperforming.
I'm hoping you went with Bont to Macrae, but given all the talk about Selwood playing behind the ball, I might have gone with that, myself. I really hope you jumped the right way!
Not a problem, you're a busy man! I ended up sitting back and waiting - Selwood, Menegola, Danger (VC) and Dusty all led the way and I might not even need to trade!
 

Woodsey

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Hi Rowsus, quick XvY with Darling versus Toby Greene - Darling should do well against Freo and has Brisbane for the grand final. Greene I think is ready to go this week against Carlton anf then has Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne, not the worst run home!
Is there any other forward you might consider? Currently have Heeney, Gray, Petracca, Walters, Smith, De Goey and Ahern as cover.
Thank you for your time
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus, quick XvY with Darling versus Toby Greene - Darling should do well against Freo and has Brisbane for the grand final. Greene I think is ready to go this week against Carlton anf then has Adelaide, Sydney and Melbourne, not the worst run home!
Is there any other forward you might consider? Currently have Heeney, Gray, Petracca, Walters, Smith, De Goey and Ahern as cover.
Thank you for your time
Hi Woodsey,
I think I'd be looking at Mundy, with Freo having 3 of their last 4 at home.
Mundy home scores this season: 123, 104, 98, 107, 90, 98, 72, 130, 100 - 9/102
He's 9/85 in away games.
If it comes down to a choice of the other 2, I'd go Darling.
Greene is one of my favourite players to watch, and the best one-on-one small player in the game, but there has to be some question mark on him.
 
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Hey Rowsus, i see no one has posted here in a couple weeks... I hope all is well towards the end of another long SC season

Got a tricky situation this week with a big prelim final coming up, I have attached the uniques match up i have with my opponent this week with my team on the left... I know he only has a single trade left and he is forced to trade Shaw out as he has not defensive bench cover... (im guess he probably gets one of Crisp or Brayshaw)
If Walters is a late out for my opponent he can cover him with Sier or Ahern...
His Olango & my Hayes is basically Grundy. Also he does not have anyone of significance on his bench, mostly non playing rookies except Sier, Giro & Ahern

Ok so knowing this im **** scared of Macrae v Carlton and my opponent has pretty solid players for the most part. Im a little worried that one of Dusty or Merrett for me won't step up to the plate but Fritsch is an even bigger concern.

I have 3 trades with no injuries to cover, so im thinking the priority is to turn Fritsch into Menegola but i need to free up some cash in order to do that.

I think I have 2 options here (maybe more, let me know if there are other options worth considering):

Option A: Hurley > Houli & Fritsch to Menegola
I'm really unsure about Hurley, has not been great lately and seems to be playing one on one with the opponents best forwards instead of the intercept marking player. Does the Dea inclusion this week help Hurley in any way?... I feel like the Houli trade would at least break even for points and give me the $ i need to get Menegola.

Option B: Ahern > Madgen & Fritsch to Menegola
This option prays that Hurley can hold it together but also generates a heap more cash for me to use on my last trade (hopefully in the grand final).

Menegola seems like a must have to finish the season off, he has Freo and Gold Coast left where he should score comfortably, he has a decent track record in scoring well against weaker teams.

What are your thoughta on Hurley/Houli or anyone else?
Should i maybe forget Menegola and try cover my opponent be trading Dusty to Macrae and hope Fritsch/Hurley hold their own?

Thanks for your help, keen to hear others opinions to help me get into the Granny!

Cheers
 

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Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus, i see no one has posted here in a couple weeks... I hope all is well towards the end of another long SC season

Got a tricky situation this week with a big prelim final coming up, I have attached the uniques match up i have with my opponent this week with my team on the left... I know he only has a single trade left and he is forced to trade Shaw out as he has not defensive bench cover... (im guess he probably gets one of Crisp or Brayshaw)
If Walters is a late out for my opponent he can cover him with Sier or Ahern...
His Olango & my Hayes is basically Grundy. Also he does not have anyone of significance on his bench, mostly non playing rookies except Sier, Giro & Ahern

Ok so knowing this im **** scared of Macrae v Carlton and my opponent has pretty solid players for the most part. Im a little worried that one of Dusty or Merrett for me won't step up to the plate but Fritsch is an even bigger concern.

I have 3 trades with no injuries to cover, so im thinking the priority is to turn Fritsch into Menegola but i need to free up some cash in order to do that.

I think I have 2 options here (maybe more, let me know if there are other options worth considering):

Option A: Hurley > Houli & Fritsch to Menegola
I'm really unsure about Hurley, has not been great lately and seems to be playing one on one with the opponents best forwards instead of the intercept marking player. Does the Dea inclusion this week help Hurley in any way?... I feel like the Houli trade would at least break even for points and give me the $ i need to get Menegola.

Option B: Ahern > Madgen & Fritsch to Menegola
This option prays that Hurley can hold it together but also generates a heap more cash for me to use on my last trade (hopefully in the grand final).

Menegola seems like a must have to finish the season off, he has Freo and Gold Coast left where he should score comfortably, he has a decent track record in scoring well against weaker teams.

What are your thoughta on Hurley/Houli or anyone else?
Should i maybe forget Menegola and try cover my opponent be trading Dusty to Macrae and hope Fritsch/Hurley hold their own?

Thanks for your help, keen to hear others opinions to help me get into the Granny!

Cheers
Hi Mafia,
yes, traffic in this thread really drops off as trades dry up.
It looks to me an equation of Martin to Macrae, to block his POD, and only use 1 trade, or boost Fritsch to Menegola. Both look like reasonable moves, so it comes down to which one has the better potential.

Macrae - plays Carlton then Richmond
There are 8 players averaging over 30 disposals in 2018. Here is how they fared against Carlton & Richmond this season.
36.5 - Mitchell - 192, 149
32.2 - Macrae - 141, DNP
31.6 - Crouch - 102, 101 & 51 (injured)
31.6 - Laird - 120, 84 & 120
31.1 - Treloar - 105 & 95 (injured), 149
30.7 - Gaff - 128, 114
30.4 - Neale - 134 & 159, 123
30.1 - Oliver - 88, 104

Looking at those numbers, it wouldn't be out of the question to think Macrae will score at least 130 this week, and given his ceiling could go as high as 160 or 170. Taking him to not only block your opponents POD, but also blocking a potential Captain's POD score looks very prudent! Dusty hasn't been looking too 2017 Dusty-like, so let's say 95-110.
So Dusty to Macrae looks like improving a 95-110 score to 130-170 this week, but more importantly, also potentially blocking a good Captain's score.

Menegola - plays Fre then GC
Both are bottom 6 teams. Menegola against bottom 6 teams this year: 129, 125, 110, 92, 100
The highlighted scores were at Cat Park, where he plays his last 2 games.
He does have a 132 and a 144 this season, so has the potential go large. The problem with Geelong Mids, is there are just so many of them! Danger, Ablett, Selwood, Kelly, Duncan and Menegola. They can't all go big one game!


I think as a general rule, Menegola would beat Fritsch by more than Macrae beats Dusty around 60% of the time. The problem is, Macrae is much more likely to rip out a 150+ than Menegola. Given you can block a potential headache giving POD Captain's score, and keep 2 trades up your sleeve for next week's hopeful Grand Final, I think I'd go Dusty to Macrae. A good Macrae Captain's score can quickly put the game out of your reach, but Menegola is unlikely to win you this weeks game off his own boot.

Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!
 
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