Questions For Rowsus

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Hi Mafia,
yes, traffic in this thread really drops off as trades dry up.
It looks to me an equation of Martin to Macrae, to block his POD, and only use 1 trade, or boost Fritsch to Menegola. Both look like reasonable moves, so it comes down to which one has the better potential.

Macrae - plays Carlton then Richmond
There are 8 players averaging over 30 disposals in 2018. Here is how they fared against Carlton & Richmond this season.
36.5 - Mitchell - 192, 149
32.2 - Macrae - 141, DNP
31.6 - Crouch - 102, 101 & 51 (injured)
31.6 - Laird - 120, 84 & 120
31.1 - Treloar - 105 & 95 (injured), 149
30.7 - Gaff - 128, 114
30.4 - Neale - 134 & 159, 123
30.1 - Oliver - 88, 104

Looking at those numbers, it wouldn't be out of the question to think Macrae will score at least 130 this week, and given his ceiling could go as high as 160 or 170. Taking him to not only block your opponents POD, but also blocking a potential Captain's POD score looks very prudent! Dusty hasn't been looking too 2017 Dusty-like, so let's say 95-110.
So Dusty to Macrae looks like improving a 95-110 score to 130-170 this week, but more importantly, also potentially blocking a good Captain's score.

Menegola - plays Fre then GC
Both are bottom 6 teams. Menegola against bottom 6 teams this year: 129, 125, 110, 92, 100
The highlighted scores were at Cat Park, where he plays his last 2 games.
He does have a 132 and a 144 this season, so has the potential go large. The problem with Geelong Mids, is there are just so many of them! Danger, Ablett, Selwood, Kelly, Duncan and Menegola. They can't all go big one game!


I think as a general rule, Menegola would beat Fritsch by more than Macrae beats Dusty around 60% of the time. The problem is, Macrae is much more likely to rip out a 150+ than Menegola. Given you can block a potential headache giving POD Captain's score, and keep 2 trades up your sleeve for next week's hopeful Grand Final, I think I'd go Dusty to Macrae. A good Macrae Captain's score can quickly put the game out of your reach, but Menegola is unlikely to win you this weeks game off his own boot.

Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!
Thanks Rowsus, those numbers tell me Macrae is in for a big one, possibly similar to Josh Kelly's 200 points he got against the blues...
I have no idea what to do with the last trade 2 trades lol
 
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Hi Rowsus,

Do you think that Brownlow Team Vote Multis still provide some value? A couple of agencies have odds posted and one of them is accepting multis already. I'd be interested to know your preferred strategy with this type of bet.

Cheers,
Corkintheocean.
 

Adrenaline

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hey row

ahern and kelly are out and i have no cover. with one trade left i can go either do the following:

trade ahern to mid/forward player thats worth 360k such as papley, stephenson, sier, or worpel and hope that kelly comes back next week

or

trade kelly for crouch/fyfe/ablett

what is your opinion regarding the best option?
 
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Darkie

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hey row

ahern and kelly are out and i have no cover. with one trade left i can go either do the following:

trade ahern to mid/forward player thats worth 360k such as papley, stephenson, sier, or worpel and hope that kelly comes back next week

or

trade kelly for crouch/fyfe/ablett

what is your opinion regarding the best option?
I was in a similar position, and concluded that it depends on the risk of you needing to use that cover - ie, it probably depends on the injury risk of your players on that line. Who do you have?
 

Adrenaline

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I was in a similar position, and concluded that it depends on the risk of you needing to use that cover - ie, it probably depends on the injury risk of your players on that line. Who do you have?
thanks darkie i have eveyrone playing but i come to the conclusion i will consider bringing in neale, ablett or crouch. i am more leaning towards crouch as he has carlton next week and just not sure what happens with ablett.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Do you think that Brownlow Team Vote Multis still provide some value? A couple of agencies have odds posted and one of them is accepting multis already. I'd be interested to know your preferred strategy with this type of bet.

Cheers,
Corkintheocean.
Hi Cork,
as a general rule, no. They really keep the market tight, and react savagely to not much money being wagered. Your lucky if you can find 2 value picks, where they might have got it wrong, across the 18 teams. That doesn't mean their favourite always wins, just that the odds on offer don't match probabilities very well.
 

Rowsus

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hey row

ahern and kelly are out and i have no cover. with one trade left i can go either do the following:

trade ahern to mid/forward player thats worth 360k such as papley, stephenson, sier, or worpel and hope that kelly comes back next week

or

trade kelly for crouch/fyfe/ablett

what is your opinion regarding the best option?
hey ad,
sorry I couldn't answer earlier. Friday is a bad day for me lateley. In bed at 9pm (5am Melb time), up at 3.30am (11.30am Melb time), back from work at 1.30pm (9.30pm Melb time), and very VERY little internet time available to me in those 16 hours.

I'm pretty confident Kelly will be back next week, though I guess we can't be 100% sure. I'm not in love with any of your replacement options for him, I must admit.
Is there a 3rd option, where you wait and see if you are winning your match up, and just take the donut if you don't need to trade?
There are a number of North or Adelaide options you could trade Ahern to, at the last minute, if you think the points are needed!
If youthink you have to go early, I'd be going to Worpel or Papley.
Good luck!
 

Adrenaline

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hey ad,
sorry I couldn't answer earlier. Friday is a bad day for me lateley. In bed at 9pm (5am Melb time), up at 3.30am (11.30am Melb time), back from work at 1.30pm (9.30pm Melb time), and very VERY little internet time available to me in those 16 hours.

I'm pretty confident Kelly will be back next week, though I guess we can't be 100% sure. I'm not in love with any of your replacement options for him, I must admit.
Is there a 3rd option, where you wait and see if you are winning your match up, and just take the donut if you don't need to trade?
There are a number of North or Adelaide options you could trade Ahern to, at the last minute, if you think the points are needed!
If youthink you have to go early, I'd be going to Worpel or Papley.
Good luck!
i didnt think my opponent had trades but it turns out he had 1 left over. given the circumstances i will need to most likely trade kelly out and bring in a premo. my currnet mids are tmitch, martin, danger, oli, macrae, cripps, cogs, j kelly

i feel like my options are:
- crouch: easy run home. should avg 110 and next week good chance to get 120
- ablett: like his match ups. he could go large or get injuried. i feel like his a risk. if he scores well this week his likely to go large against his old side
- fyfe: very risky pick. odds are against me
- neale: similar to crouch but not as good as a draw. selwood likely to run with him i would think but nice game next week

what do you think? im happy to consider another option.
 

Rowsus

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i didnt think my opponent had trades but it turns out he had 1 left over. given the circumstances i will need to most likely trade kelly out and bring in a premo. my currnet mids are tmitch, martin, danger, oli, macrae, cripps, cogs, j kelly

i feel like my options are:
- crouch: easy run home. should avg 110 and next week good chance to get 120
- ablett: like his match ups. he could go large or get injuried. i feel like his a risk. if he scores well this week his likely to go large against his old side
- fyfe: very risky pick. odds are against me
- neale: similar to crouch but not as good as a draw. selwood likely to run with him i would think but nice game next week

what do you think? im happy to consider another option.
It's very hard to be confident about any of the Mids you don't have, having 2 good games, given their Draws etc.
I'm worried about Neale this week, for sure. I'd also consider Whitfield, who hasn't gone under 105 in his last 6 games. The thing to considerthere is, that all the GWS mids seemed to suffer, last time Kelly was out. In fact, the whole team suffered, he seems to be that important to their success.
 

Saintellica

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Hey Rowsus,
not much time for this answer but what do you think Danger VC (terrible weather - potential thunder and hail) into Mitchell C or Mitchell VC into mcrae C both under the roof
cheers if you get to this
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rowsus,
not much time for this answer but what do you think Danger VC (terrible weather - potential thunder and hail) into Mitchell C or Mitchell VC into mcrae C both under the roof
cheers if you get to this
Hey Saint,
all 3 are good options, my prefered route would be Danger into Macrae, but Mitchell into Macrae doesn't stink either!
 

Bermi

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Hi Rowsus, short notice, ok if you don't have time.

Desperate to have a chance to win a prelim.
Opponent and I have M Crouch and I want to gamble and trade out M Crouch to a player that can score 150+
Only have $551,600
I'm leaning to Sloane or Redden, hmmm, not sure? anybody else to consider?

I have left Petracca and T McDonald and my opponent (The Begala Brigade) has Brayshaw and 130 plus points.

-------------------------------------

Since both of us have Oliver and Oliver has to contend with Hutchings, I thought Macrae against CAR has a good chance of out scoring Oliver by 30 points. I hope so. I rather go out of the finals fighting :) Only had one trade left.
 
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Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus, short notice, ok if you don't have time.

Desperate to have a chance to win a prelim.
Opponent and I have M Crouch and I want to gamble and trade out M Crouch to a player that can score 150+
Only have $551,600
I'm leaning to Sloane or Redden, hmmm, not sure? anybody else to consider?

I have left Petracca and T McDonald and my opponent (The Begala Brigade) has Brayshaw and 130 plus points.

-------------------------------------

Since both of us have Oliver and Oliver has to contend with Hutchings, I thought Macrae against CAR has a good chance of out scoring Oliver by 30 points. I hope so. I rather go out of the finals fighting :) Only had one trade left.
Hi Bermi,
I'm not sure if you have pulled the trigger already or not, but I guess you need to do something. On the face of it, you are behind the 8-ball in your match up.
I did think Macrae was going to go around 140 this week, but geez, trading Oliver out is a risk, but I guess risks need to be taken.
The only move I can see, if you haven't pulled the trigger yet is, Petracca to either Jenkins or Brown, and I think I'd go Brown.
Good luck!
 

Bermi

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Thanks Rowsus, I did go Macrae and half time looks like I took the wrong punt. I had to try something. My opponent's Franklin killed me, as we only had 6 players different.
 

Bermi

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Macrae did outscore Oliver, but not enough :( So I am out of my 2 Comps.
I really like the excitement SuperCoach brings and all the discussions in this forum, which I'll participate through the off-season.
One change that I would like to see next year in SuperCoach , is that we have 2 trades every week. I enjoy the research in trading :)
I still reckon the $50K winner should donate 1% of their winnings to SuperCoachScores, IF they have benefitted from this forum.
I think the upgrade of this site has been terrific, congratulations to all involved.
Finally I would like to thank you Rowsus for all that you do, it's great! (y)
 

Bomber18

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Hi Rowsus

One final question for the year from me!

Who's your pick from this bunch?

Parfitt v Suns
Caddy v Doggies
Waite v Stk
Gresham v North
Cripps v Brisbane

Thanks for another great season!

B18
 

t.thomas6

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Hi Rowsus

One final question for the year from me!

Who's your pick from this bunch?

Parfitt v Suns
Caddy v Doggies
Waite v Stk
Gresham v North
Cripps v Brisbane

Thanks for another great season!

B18
I know this is Rowan's forum - but I have to add my 2 cents :p

Being the enigma he is, you know Waite will finish with a BOG performance before he hangs up the boots :cool:
You can just see it happening (y)
 

blue dreamer

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I know this is Rowan's forum - but I have to add my 2 cents :p

Being the enigma he is, you know Waite will finish with a BOG performance before he hangs up the boots :cool:
You can just see it happening (y)
Or he'll get bothy reported AND injured before quarter time;)

But seriously, well played Waitey. Not many go on to 35 and are still influencing games like the enigma you are.
 

Darkie

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^I was thinking about this earlier. Do they kick it to Waite in his final game, or to Brown to try to seal the Coleman?
 
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