Questions For Rowsus

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus

One final question for the year from me!

Who's your pick from this bunch?

Parfitt v Suns
Caddy v Doggies
Waite v Stk
Gresham v North
Cripps v Brisbane

Thanks for another great season!

B18
Hi B18,
congratulations on your season so far, I hope you finish it off with a good score!

I've picked Geelong to win by 98 points, so I'm guessing the Cats will also hog the SC points. Parfitt could go 50, or he could go 140. With all the competition for points, I'm going to guess he's mid 90's this week.

Caddy's found a little streak of form, and I reckon the Bulldogs might go into "tripaway" mode sometime around 3/4time. Caddy to take advantage, and score around 108

Waite - who knows, perfectly sumed up above. Could go 170, and could be on the bench injured by 1/4 time! It's too risky to predict anything too big, so I'll go 105. Interestingly, no scores between 80 and 100 this season!

Gresham - a player of the future, possibly, but only good for 85 this week.

Cripps has only 3 tons this season, and a top of 114. I think he's nearly, ........... nearly, the least likely to top score of your 5 options. I'll give him an 82 this week.

Caddy for me. :)
 

Bomber18

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Hi B18,
congratulations on your season so far, I hope you finish it off with a good score!

I've picked Geelong to win by 98 points, so I'm guessing the Cats will also hog the SC points. Parfitt could go 50, or he could go 140. With all the competition for points, I'm going to guess he's mid 90's this week.

Caddy's found a little streak of form, and I reckon the Bulldogs might go into "tripaway" mode sometime around 3/4time. Caddy to take advantage, and score around 108

Waite - who knows, prerfectly sumed up above. Could go 170, and could be on the bench injured by 1/4 time! It's too risky to predict anything too big, so I'll go 105. Interestingly, no scores between 80 and 100 this season!

Gresham - a player of the future, possibly, but only good for 85 this week.

Cripps has only 3 tons this season, and a top of 114. I think he's nearly, ........... nearly, the least likely to top score of your 5 options. I'll give him an 82 this week.

Caddy for me. :)
Thanks rowsus for your detailed thoughts! Really interesting. Putting a lot of thought into as I want to hopefully get it right (as I'm probably gonna cop at least one donut from buddy). Caddy/Parfitt do seem least likely to disappoint too much with probably a 90 odd at worst due to their opposition. Although, I'm wondering whether I go for the roulette option of Waite! I'm sure there'll be a clear winner at the end of the round, hoping I land on him!
 

Bomber18

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Too early to start the Q4Rs for 2019? I had the last question of 2018 - so thought it’d be fitting to open with the first for 2019!

I was wondering if you had a few names you had your eye on in the preseason that finished the year strongly? Sicily & Mclean from last season (and Macrae to some extent) were the 2018 success stories after finishing strong in 2017. CCurnow however didn’t quite work out for those that looked at his 2017 finish.

Few names I’ve seen pop up with strong 2018 finishes are JSteele, JGresham, and JDunkley.

Guys like Parfitt & Worpel might be on a few watchlists too with possibly more opportunities in the midfield available.

Have you got anyone else on your watchlist either due to a strong 2018 finish or possible breakout due to more midfield opportunities?

Thanks
B18
 

siwel

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Hi Rowus,
I hope you are well and enjoying the off season and the European summer. My questions relates to premiums that have changed clubs and what effect (if any) this have on their avg (GAJ, Judd, Danger, Beams etc) and any other information that can be gleaned from your analysis.
Thanks mate, much appreciated as always
Lewis
 

PC

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Hi Rowsus.

Who has the best DE in each of the lines - D, M, R, F?

Cheers!
 

anfa18

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Hi Rowsus.

Who has the best DE in each of the lines - D, M, R, F?

Cheers!
I don't like to hijack Rowsus' thread, but I believe these 2018 stats are correct from the AFL website.

Sorted by top 20 disposals: Lloyd 79.3%, followed by Whitfield 78.3%.
Sorted by top 20 disposals: Ward 77.1%, followed by Pendlebury 75.8%.
Sorted by top 20 hit outs: McEvoy with 79.9%, followed by Simpson (9 games) with 78.5%.
Sorted by top 20 goal kickers: Hoskin-Elliott with 75.2%, followed by Tom McDonald 73.9%.

I wasn't sure how to sort the defenders so i just went with top disposals.
 

PC

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I don't like to hijack Rowsus' thread, but I believe these 2018 stats are correct from the AFL website.

Sorted by top 20 disposals: Lloyd 79.3%, followed by Whitfield 78.3%.
Sorted by top 20 disposals: Ward 77.1%, followed by Pendlebury 75.8%.
Sorted by top 20 hit outs: McEvoy with 79.9%, followed by Simpson (9 games) with 78.5%.
Sorted by top 20 goal kickers: Hoskin-Elliott with 75.2%, followed by Tom McDonald 73.9%.

I wasn't sure how to sort the defenders so i just went with top disposals.
Thanks Anfa - TMac heh...
 

Darkie

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I don't like to hijack Rowsus' thread, but I believe these 2018 stats are correct from the AFL website.

Sorted by top 20 disposals: Lloyd 79.3%, followed by Whitfield 78.3%.
Sorted by top 20 disposals: Ward 77.1%, followed by Pendlebury 75.8%.
Sorted by top 20 hit outs: McEvoy with 79.9%, followed by Simpson (9 games) with 78.5%.
Sorted by top 20 goal kickers: Hoskin-Elliott with 75.2%, followed by Tom McDonald 73.9%.

I wasn't sure how to sort the defenders so i just went with top disposals.
Surprised to see Ward in there, given I would have thought he was quite contested as well.
 

Blue Dragons

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Hey Row,

How many players is too many from the one team?

All of Crozier, Macrae, Bont, McLean, Dunkley and Daniel are in the mix for me. Macrae and McLean more than likely in with Dunkley very close. I am also a bit cautious that Dunkleys run with role he played last year could turn into a tagging role in some games throwing out a dud game here and there.

Thanks!
 

XabiFernando

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Hi Row,

Thoughts on Angus Brayshaw? Understand you have reservations on Melbourne's midfielders on the whole (outside Oliver) but keen to see where the probable no.2 fits in to the picture.
 

Rowsus

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Too early to start the Q4Rs for 2019? I had the last question of 2018 - so thought it’d be fitting to open with the first for 2019!

I was wondering if you had a few names you had your eye on in the preseason that finished the year strongly? Sicily & Mclean from last season (and Macrae to some extent) were the 2018 success stories after finishing strong in 2017. CCurnow however didn’t quite work out for those that looked at his 2017 finish.

Few names I’ve seen pop up with strong 2018 finishes are JSteele, JGresham, and JDunkley.

Guys like Parfitt & Worpel might be on a few watchlists too with possibly more opportunities in the midfield available.

Have you got anyone else on your watchlist either due to a strong 2018 finish or possible breakout due to more midfield opportunities?

Thanks
B18
Hi B18,
I think sometimes we read too much into a strong finish to a season.
It can mean some progress has been made, but it could also just be a bit of a hot streak, or even more likely, that the player involved had injured team mates, thus an opportunity arose. The later in the season, the more likely this will apply, and of course, the more likely it will disappear, once the new season starts.
If you want to find potential breakout players that fit this description, you need to look at the underlying reasons their score increased. Dunkley got more Mid time, but McLean was having shoulder problems. Does that mean Dunkley has now moved in front of McLean? Possibly not! Steele I rate as some sort of chance to improve. Ratten as their new Mid Coach is a huge plus, and Steven missing doesn't hurt either, though I think Steele is probably the 2nd pick Midfielder behind Steven now anyway. Gresham will post some good scores, but he will also have some games where he is mired as a small Fwd. He's not for me.
To be honest, outside of keeping an eye on Steele, and possibly Brayshaw, there aren't too many that fit the strong finish description I was interested in, from last season.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowus,
I hope you are well and enjoying the off season and the European summer. My questions relates to premiums that have changed clubs and what effect (if any) this have on their avg (GAJ, Judd, Danger, Beams etc) and any other information that can be gleaned from your analysis.
Thanks mate, much appreciated as always
Lewis
Hi Siwel,
the winter here has been pretty mild here, so far!
I'm one of those people that doesn't put too much weight in players changing clubs. If they are established players, it rarely leads to an increase in SC scoring. They are the player they are, and changing clubs doesn't change their ability. Usually clubs have "maximised" a players ability before they change clubs (again, established players!), so a new club is only remining old ground. Devon Smith (peaked at 21/91 then went 22/98 last season, 4 years later.) might be an example against what I'm saying, but off the top of my head, I can't think of too many others.
GAJ - 2010 Geelong 21/130, 2011 GC 20/127, 2017 GC 14/115, 2018 Geelong 18/107
Judd - 2007 WC 18/106, 2008 Carlton 21/110
Danger - 2015 Adelaide 21/120, 2016 Geelong 22/132
Beams - 2014 Collingwood 19/116, 2015 Brisbane 16/113
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus.

Who has the best DE in each of the lines - D, M, R, F?

Cheers!
I don't like to hijack Rowsus' thread, but I believe these 2018 stats are correct from the AFL website.

Sorted by top 20 disposals: Lloyd 79.3%, followed by Whitfield 78.3%.
Sorted by top 20 disposals: Ward 77.1%, followed by Pendlebury 75.8%.
Sorted by top 20 hit outs: McEvoy with 79.9%, followed by Simpson (9 games) with 78.5%.
Sorted by top 20 goal kickers: Hoskin-Elliott with 75.2%, followed by Tom McDonald 73.9%.

I wasn't sure how to sort the defenders so i just went with top disposals.
Nice work @anfa18 , thanks for the helping hand!
 

Rowsus

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Hey Row,

How many players is too many from the one team?

All of Crozier, Macrae, Bont, McLean, Dunkley and Daniel are in the mix for me. Macrae and McLean more than likely in with Dunkley very close. I am also a bit cautious that Dunkleys run with role he played last year could turn into a tagging role in some games throwing out a dud game here and there.

Thanks!
Hey BD,
generally you can actually have 5 or 6 from one team, as long as it is the right team! Even 3 from one club, on the one line can work! (Beams, Swan, Pendlebury did it, so did Deledio, Cotchin and Tuck)

I refer you to an excellent thread started by @Yasi around a week ago.

Who is going to fall away?

This will give you an insight to last years numbers.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Row,

Thoughts on Angus Brayshaw? Understand you have reservations on Melbourne's midfielders on the whole (outside Oliver) but keen to see where the probable no.2 fits in to the picture.
Hi Xabi,
I'm coming around to Brayshaw a little bit.
I'm concerned how Viney might affect him, and his role. I'm also concerned Brayshaw can be an accumulator without reward. ie. gather 30+ disposals, but still score in the 90's in SC, just like a Sam Mitchell, and sometimes M Crouch. Those concerns aside, I think he brings an "energy" to Melbourne's Midfield, that Viney doesn't. I wouldn't be surprised if Brayshaw doesn't usurp Viney's spots this season. The question is, how many "affected" scores does he get, before this happens?
 

siwel

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Hi Siwel,
the winter here has been pretty mild here, so far!
I'm one of those people that doesn't put too much weight in players changing clubs. If they are established players, it rarely leads to an increase in SC scoring. They are the player they are, and changing clubs doesn't change their ability. Usually clubs have "maximised" a players ability before they change clubs (again, established players!), so a new club is only remining old ground. Devon Smith (peaked at 21/91 then went 22/98 last season, 4 years later.) might be an example against what I'm saying, but off the top of my head, I can't think of too many others.
GAJ - 2010 Geelong 21/130, 2011 GC 20/127, 2017 GC 14/115, 2018 Geelong 18/107
Judd - 2007 WC 18/106, 2008 Carlton 21/110
Danger - 2015 Adelaide 21/120, 2016 Geelong 22/132
Beams - 2014 Collingwood 19/116, 2015 Brisbane 16/113
Legend, great to have you back posting in this thread and thank you for your insights and hard work
 

WindyHillWizard

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Hi Rowsus,

What do you make of the Crows midfielders this year, specifically Brad Couch, Matt Crouch and Sloane. All look value picks especially with an improving Crows team.
Can you have more than one?
How would you rank them as starting picks?
 

Manikato1

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Hi Rowsus

Do you think T Campbell could play a role as cheap priced R2. Has two okay scores in JLT. Will Minson ex-WBD is now Roos ruck coach and got Campbell the chance. He actually scored 120 and 47 HO against Goldy back in 2017.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

What do you make of the Crows midfielders this year, specifically Brad Couch, Matt Crouch and Sloane. All look value picks especially with an improving Crows team.
Can you have more than one?
How would you rank them as starting picks?
Hi WHW,
I think you can have 2, but starting all 3 might be hoping for too much.
In 2012 Collingwood had Swan 18/126, Pendlebury 18/125 and Beams 21/123. Richmond had Deledio 22/117, Cotchin 22/116 and Tuck 22/115. So 3 can be done, but betting on it seems to begoing against the odds.
None of them are currently in my team, but I can certainly see an argument for each of them. I find it hard to split Sloane and Mouch, probably Sloane, just. Then Bouch 3rd pick.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus

Do you think T Campbell could play a role as cheap priced R2. Has two okay scores in JLT. Will Minson ex-WBD is now Roos ruck coach and got Campbell the chance. He actually scored 120 and 47 HO against Goldy back in 2017.
The biggest hurdle to his starting R2 position is, he is suspended for Rnd 1.
In the 1st qtr last week he drove Peirce into the ground, with a "2nd action" in the tackle, and got a week for Rough Play.
Having watched him in the 2nd JLT, I was querying whether he gets a game, and if he only gets one because North are a couple of tall Defs down. He didn't look that good to me. I was hoping to see more, as I intended to pick him at R3 (and still might), if I could get a cheap R2 playing for Round 1.
My whole go cheap, and avoid both Gawn and Grundy, strategy seems in the wind right now. I guess we need more info, before we can cross the cheap Ruck bridge!
 
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