Questions For Rowsus

Manikato1

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The biggest hurdle to his starting R2 position is, he is suspended for Rnd 1.
In the 1st qtr last week he drove Peirce into the ground, with a "2nd action" in the tackle, and got a week for Rough Play.
Having watched him in the 2nd JLT, I was querying whether he gets a game, and if he only gets one because North are a couple of tall Defs down. He didn't look that good to me. I was hoping to see more, as I intended to pick him at R3 (and still might), if I could get a cheap R2 playing for Round 1.
My whole go cheap, and avoid both Gawn and Grundy, strategy seems in the wind right now. I guess we need more info, before we can cross the cheap Ruck bridge!
Hi Row

Thanks for the info. I missed the rd 1 suspension and I don't get to see any JLT games. I have been looking for a cheap R2 but it all seems to be going down the toilet in that area with a string of injuries and Darcy seeming to be a bit proppy with a hamstring issue. The WCE game will tell us a lot about his fitness. Also still don't know the state of play with Clarke and his injury.
 

Mudflap

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The biggest hurdle to his starting R2 position is, he is suspended for Rnd 1.
In the 1st qtr last week he drove Peirce into the ground, with a "2nd action" in the tackle, and got a week for Rough Play.
Having watched him in the 2nd JLT, I was querying whether he gets a game, and if he only gets one because North are a couple of tall Defs down. He didn't look that good to me. I was hoping to see more, as I intended to pick him at R3 (and still might), if I could get a cheap R2 playing for Round 1.
My whole go cheap, and avoid both Gawn and Grundy, strategy seems in the wind right now. I guess we need more info, before we can cross the cheap Ruck bridge!
HI Rowsus. 2 questions.

Where have you landed on with the rucks with the JLT now done (1 game to go )?I have Goldy locked in and have rotated R2 (Kruz, Clarke, Smith, Lycett, Darcy) but right now I have gone back to Gawn/Goldy.

Also thoughts on Caleb Daniel.

Cheers
 
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Hi Rowsus,

Hope you’re well.

Got two questions for you, hope that’s ok.

Firstly, what are your thoughts on going mid price heavy this year, with 5 or less rookies on field. Although it may give me less ‘keepers’, I feel I can maximise points due to the lack of rookie with good scoring potential and JS this year.

Would also love to get your thoughts on Pendlebury and whether he can return to a 110+ Premo again.

Cheers.
 

Rowsus

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HI Rowsus. 2 questions.

Where have you landed on with the rucks with the JLT now done (1 game to go )?I have Goldy locked in and have rotated R2 (Kruz, Clarke, Smith, Lycett, Darcy) but right now I have gone back to Gawn/Goldy.

Also thoughts on Caleb Daniel.

Cheers
Hi Mudflap,
I'm pretty much committed to not starting Grundy or Gawn.
While it looks like I won't get the 3 x sub $300k Rucks I was hoping for, I will pick the the 2 cheapest Rucks I think have good JS, then the cheapest Ruck picked for Round 1 at R3.
At the moment, the rucks sitting in my team are: Lobb, English, Clarke.
That could easily change, but they are the cheapest ones I feel have unquestionable JS.
I think if I wasn't totally opposed to the dollars on Gawn/Grundy, I would probably start Gawn/Goldy, just like you!
Good luck!
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Hope you’re well.

Got two questions for you, hope that’s ok.

Firstly, what are your thoughts on going mid price heavy this year, with 5 or less rookies on field. Although it may give me less ‘keepers’, I feel I can maximise points due to the lack of rookie with good scoring potential and JS this year.

Would also love to get your thoughts on Pendlebury and whether he can return to a 110+ Premo again.

Cheers.
Hi Pieman, I'm good, and I hope you are too!
My current team has 14 Keepers, and 6 Rookies on the ground.
You want to be careful of maximising your early points, at the potential risk of not reaching the (near) potential max points that a "full" team brings. Quite often if you overload with midpricers you end up with one or two traps, that stay in your team, but end up 5-10 below what is really required. You also end up with one or two more correction trades than just going G'n'R might force you into.
The bottom line is, midpricers need to have around 60-70% success rate, or you have lost on the deal. The definition of success is different for everyone. To me, for a midpricer to be called a success, i'd be looking for one of these criteria:
Score well enough to become a genuine Keeper (obviously)
Make at least $50-$80k. The amount required is dependant on their starting price. The cheaper they are, the more they need to make.
Score well enough, that you confidently hold them until your last upgrade or two, while being able to keep them onfield. The alternative to that is, you keep them through to the end, but only move them to them bench as depth players, once your team becomes full.
It sounds obvious and simple, but in reality it isn't. If you start 6 midpricers, you need at least 4 to meet those requirements. Not many people who start 6 midpricers will achieve that!

Pendlebury.
There is precedence for him to achieve a 110+ season from here, but I would bet against it. The precedence I refer to is a player having 2 years in a row below 110, but then regaining that level.
M Barlow did it in his 1st and 4th seasons, but was below 110 in the his 2nd and 3rd because of a broken leg.
B Deledio did it in his 8th and 11th seasons, but was only 27 years old when his 11th season started.
A Goodes did it, but was 29 when he regained his 110+ status.
L Hayes did it at 29, but there were injury problems in between.
S Mitchell was 110+ at age 22, and didn't get back there until he was 28!
L Montagna did it at 26 and 29.
S Mumford did it in his 4th and 7th seasons.
M Pavlich had a 3 year gap, doing it at 26 and 30.
S Tuck had 6 years between his two 110+ seasons, the 2nd at age 30.
So there it is, only 9 people have achieved what you want Pendlebury to achieve. Only 2 achieved at the age of 30, and no one older than 30 has ever done it. Pendlebury is 31. One good reason no one older than 30 has done it, is that only 2 players older than 30 have ever recorded a 110+ season, Ablett (twice) and Montagna. It's not many!
 

quite ironic

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Hi Rowsus,

Hope all is well and you are eager to get stuck into another SuperCoach year with some similarities and differences to prior years.

I just thought I’d ask for a quick opinion on the following two situations:

1) I’m quite bullish on Angus Brayshaw. Although a lot see him as a Matt Crouch type sc:dt scorer, I feel like the new rules may give him a bit more time to improve his DE. He just seems like a natural ball magnet that if he can even tidy up that disposal just a little bit he looks easily like a 110+ player. What are your thoughts being a Melbourne supporter; do you think it would be better to start him or use a wait and see approach and look at stepping stones like Libba/Rockliff/B.Crouch to upgrade him to pending an increase in value for those and seeing enough of Brayshaw that we like.

The second point is around a F3. There seems to be quite a few viable options but I’m finding it hard to seperate, even after quite a bit of analysis between the older player in Boak, the inconsistent T.Kelly, the role splitting younger player in Dunkley and the key position player in Darling. How would you rank these 4 in preference for a F3 spot?

Thanks heaps, appreciate your time!
 

XabiFernando

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Hi Row,

Not sure if you have this info on hand but I'm going to try my luck.

Looking at past SC overall winners, how many POD players (say sub 10%) did each of their starting teams have?
 

Slammer

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Hi Rows, How are ya?
Thought I would finally get started again with my first question.
The Rucks I see you have mentioned alot in your previous threads. Which I still trying to figure out like most others.
But my question is about defenders.
Just wanted to know your philosophy on the high priced defenders in Whitfield, Hurn etc.
They are currently in my team but every time I look at them I ask myself the question of could I spend the cash elsewhere and go with some of the lower price players. I generally think that defense is where you can probably take the most risk but it seems the all the mid price players eg. Robertson, BSmith, etc. are going to susceptible to injury.
Do you plan to start with any Hurn, Whitfield, Crisp type players?
 

Yikes

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hey there, was wondering which one of gawn and grundy would you prefer to start with if you had to?
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

Hope all is well and you are eager to get stuck into another SuperCoach year with some similarities and differences to prior years.

I just thought I’d ask for a quick opinion on the following two situations:

1) I’m quite bullish on Angus Brayshaw. Although a lot see him as a Matt Crouch type sc:dt scorer, I feel like the new rules may give him a bit more time to improve his DE. He just seems like a natural ball magnet that if he can even tidy up that disposal just a little bit he looks easily like a 110+ player. What are your thoughts being a Melbourne supporter; do you think it would be better to start him or use a wait and see approach and look at stepping stones like Libba/Rockliff/B.Crouch to upgrade him to pending an increase in value for those and seeing enough of Brayshaw that we like.

The second point is around a F3. There seems to be quite a few viable options but I’m finding it hard to seperate, even after quite a bit of analysis between the older player in Boak, the inconsistent T.Kelly, the role splitting younger player in Dunkley and the key position player in Darling. How would you rank these 4 in preference for a F3 spot?

Thanks heaps, appreciate your time!
Hi qi,
I'm well, and hope all is well for you too.

1) I'm keen on Brayshaw, seeing the energy he brings to the role. I just temper my enthusiasm because I'm worried what Melbourne do with Jones and Viney. While Jones and Viney are streets ahead in experience, I'm not sure they are better at the explosive Mid role than Brayshaw. Hopefully the Club agree's, and Brayshaw gets a better than decent crack at it. I'd actually have him in front of those 2 for that sort of role. I guess the problem is more Viney. What do they do with Viney, if he doesn't play that Mid role? He's not much chop as a Forward, and Harmes seems better at the run with role than Viney. I'm picking Brayshaw in my SC team, but I will be watching closely, that he doesn't get pushed to the Wing/Half Forward too much. I'm not sure he can score to the level we need from the Wing.
As to using a Stepping Stone, while you assess Brayshaw, I think if you go down that path, it has to Libba. In general, I think it's a poor idea, and I haven't even considered putting Libba in my team, it's just that the other 2 are only $100k cheaper than Brayshaw. It seems if you go in with a plan, that involves a Stepping Stone, I think the targetted player needs to be more like $200k in front of the Stepping Stone to start with, otherwise you may just well find the $100k by other means, and save a trade!

2) It's funny how you think there are a lot of viable options for F3. The Fwds (and the Rucks) are doing my head in. I really don't want to start Dangerfield. In short, I think people have been "seduced" because he's available as a Fwd. There is no way a $660k player should be in 67% of teams! Just think, we used to be a little gob-smacked, that 50% of teams started Ablett! There seems to be an attitude, sub-conscious with some, that you can't lose with him, because even if he somehow fell to 100/game, he's still in the top scoring Fwds. That is patently a ridiculous outlook, in a game with a budget. Let's flip it over. How many would start him if he was Mid only? Probably somewhere around 45-50%. Now here's the thing, success or not MUST have a price component in it. In theory, in your starting line up, the price component is more important in factoring the success of a pick, than the line they are playing on. This tells me, that Dangerfield is being grossly over estimated by the masses, just because you can pick him as a Fwd.
I currently have Dangerfield in my team :eek::rolleyes:o_O:unsure:
Why? Because try as I might, outside of Heeney, I can't find a Fwd I'm confident will be a top 8 Fwd by seasons end. It means to remove Dangerfield, I either have to take a punt, or play an extra Mid Prem, at the expense of what might turn out to be a decent Mid Rookie. I'm still not convinced I will start Danger, but you can see why I'm a bit puzzled by you having so many viable options for F3.
My Fwd line is currently: Dangerfield, Heeney, Wallis, Darling ........
Darling was a throw the hands up, I've gotta find somebody, type pick, plus I wanted one KPF.
I don't like Boak. He can really butcher the ball sometimes. I had him last season, as a bye bonus player, and it was terrifying watching him sometimes! He's close enough to 31, and hasn't gone over 91 in 3 seasons. Yes, he might have SC friendly role early on, but you need to look at the season as a whole, when picking your F3. What role does he play, when Wines comes back? Probably a similar role he has played the past 3 seasons, ergo we should expect something around 88-91, when he reverts to that role again.
I've chosen Wallis over Dunkley, because he's been up around 100 for a season before, and he reminds me of when Barlow broke his leg. It took him 2 seasons to get over it, then he bounced back to 110+ again. I'm backing Wallis to bounce back to around that 100 area again, while those backing Dunkley, are hoping he can reach new ground.
I had T Kelly in my team for a while. Then I looked at Geelong. Dangerfield, Ablett, Selwood, Duncan, Menegola - it's hard to see them all going around 100 or better. Then you've got Dahlhaus, Scooter, Parfitt and some younger players to get some time into, and it becomes even harder, as those "fringe" players will still eat some Mid time. You can see the other reason I'm wishing to not start Dangerfield.
Darling can be fragile, but to me, he looks the best/most reliable KPF, and given the new centre square rules, I wanted to squeeze a KPF in there somewhere.
In summary, if you find an F3 you have confidence in, please share him with me, and then maybe I can get my wish, and drop Dangerfield. Good luck, I hope whoever you end up on does well!
 

Rowsus

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Rowsus

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Hi Rows, How are ya?
Thought I would finally get started again with my first question.
The Rucks I see you have mentioned alot in your previous threads. Which I still trying to figure out like most others.
But my question is about defenders.
Just wanted to know your philosophy on the high priced defenders in Whitfield, Hurn etc.
They are currently in my team but every time I look at them I ask myself the question of could I spend the cash elsewhere and go with some of the lower price players. I generally think that defense is where you can probably take the most risk but it seems the all the mid price players eg. Robertson, BSmith, etc. are going to susceptible to injury.
Do you plan to start with any Hurn, Whitfield, Crisp type players?
Hi Slammer, welcome back!
Like most, I'm generally opposed to paying high prices for Def, as they seeming have the largest deviation in scores, as a line. I had Whitfield "locked" fro the end of last season, but he is not currently in my team. I do have Hurn in my team. I at one stage was picking a Def line of the players I thought would take a lot of kick ins, thinking the new rules would bump their scores a little. While I still think that may happen, I decided to cut that strategy back to just Hurn for now. If ever a rule was written to benefit one player, it's the new kick in rule ,and Hurn. He's my exception player this season, as I'm trying to keep my team youngish.
My current Def line, just listing the players over $400k is: Hurn, Andrews, Williams.
While the theory is correct, that the Def line is the best place to take risks, I actually did an analysis on Def players within a certain price range. I think it was from a question asked by Hondo, and the price range was something like $250k-$400k. It turned out something like 2% of them turned out to be good picks! So, yes, take a punt there, but just be wary of how poor Defs in that price range have historically performed.
Age, injury risk etc, are the reason I have avoided Smith, Roberton etc this season.
 

quite ironic

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Hi qi,
I'm well, and hope all is well for you too.

1) I'm keen on Brayshaw, seeing the energy he brings to the role. I just temper my enthusiasm because I'm worried what Melbourne do with Jones and Viney. While Jones and Viney are streets ahead in experience, I'm not sure they are better at the explosive Mid role than Brayshaw. Hopefully the Club agree's, and Brayshaw gets a better than decent crack at it. I'd actually have him in front of those 2 for that sort of role. I guess the problem is more Viney. What do they do with Viney, if he doesn't play that Mid role? He's not much chop as a Forward, and Harmes seems better at the run with role than Viney. I'm picking Brayshaw in my SC team, but I will be watching closely, that he doesn't get pushed to the Wing/Half Forward too much. I'm not sure he can score to the level we need from the Wing.
As to using a Stepping Stone, while you assess Brayshaw, I think if you go down that path, it has to Libba. In general, I think it's a poor idea, and I haven't even considered putting Libba in my team, it's just that the other 2 are only $100k cheaper than Brayshaw. It seems if you go in with a plan, that involves a Stepping Stone, I think the targetted player needs to be more like $200k in front of the Stepping Stone to start with, otherwise you may just well find the $100k by other means, and save a trade!

2) It's funny how you think there are a lot of viable options for F3. The Fwds (and the Rucks) are doing my head in. I really don't want to start Dangerfield. In short, I think people have been "seduced" because he's available as a Fwd. There is no way a $660k player should be in 67% of teams! Just think, we used to be a little gob-smacked, that 50% of teams started Ablett! There seems to be an attitude, sub-conscious with some, that you can't lose with him, because even if he somehow fell to 100/game, he's still in the top scoring Fwds. That is patently a ridiculous outlook, in a game with a budget. Let's flip it over. How many would start him if he was Mid only? Probably somewhere around 45-50%. Now here's the thing, success or not MUST have a price component in it. In theory, in your starting line up, the price component is more important in factoring the success of a pick, than the line they are playing on. This tells me, that Dangerfield is being grossly over estimated by the masses, just because you can pick him as a Fwd.
I currently have Dangerfield in my team :eek::rolleyes:o_O:unsure:
Why? Because try as I might, outside of Heeney, I can't find a Fwd I'm confident will be a top 8 Fwd by seasons end. It means to remove Dangerfield, I either have to take a punt, or play an extra Mid Prem, at the expense of what might turn out to be a decent Mid Rookie. I'm still not convinced I will start Danger, but you can see why I'm a bit puzzled by you having so many viable options for F3.
My Fwd line is currently: Dangerfield, Heeney, Wallis, Darling ........
Darling was a throw the hands up, I've gotta find somebody, type pick, plus I wanted one KPF.
I don't like Boak. He can really butcher the ball sometimes. I had him last season, as a bye bonus player, and it was terrifying watching him sometimes! He's close enough to 31, and hasn't gone over 91 in 3 seasons. Yes, he might have SC friendly role early on, but you need to look at the season as a whole, when picking your F3. What role does he play, when Wines comes back? Probably a similar role he has played the past 3 seasons, ergo we should expect something around 88-91, when he reverts to that role again.
I've chosen Wallis over Dunkley, because he's been up around 100 for a season before, and he reminds me of when Barlow broke his leg. It took him 2 seasons to get over it, then he bounced back to 110+ again. I'm backing Wallis to bounce back to around that 100 area again, while those backing Dunkley, are hoping he can reach new ground.
I had T Kelly in my team for a while. Then I looked at Geelong. Dangerfield, Ablett, Selwood, Duncan, Menegola - it's hard to see them all going around 100 or better. Then you've got Dahlhaus, Scooter, Parfitt and some younger players to get some time into, and it becomes even harder, as those "fringe" players will still eat some Mid time. You can see the other reason I'm wishing to not start Dangerfield.
Darling can be fragile, but to me, he looks the best/most reliable KPF, and given the new centre square rules, I wanted to squeeze a KPF in there somewhere.
In summary, if you find an F3 you have confidence in, please share him with me, and then maybe I can get my wish, and drop Dangerfield. Good luck, I hope whoever you end up on does well!
Thank you for your time Row! You do such an epic job and your advice over the last couple of years has been of great assistance to myself and many others.

Very good point re: Dangerfield. It feels like as soon as he was put down as a forward it was just yep lock in, not one thought again about his price. I have had a hard time bringing myself to selecting both of Grundy/Gawn at their price and even Macrae at his price yet Dangerfield just because of his position isn't even thought about as a risk.

Geelong have an extremely tough start to the year and with that increased midfield time for others that you touched on with the point about Kelly, it may effect Danger negatively too if Geelong decide to push him forward for longer stints of time.

At the time (I seem to swinging to and from in my thoughts on this), I thought their did seem to be a plethora of options up forward between 400-550k compared to down back. I have talked myself into Darling regarding the rule changes for KPF's, his record in Perth and the fact he was a 96 average scorer last year when taking out the 2 injury effected games. However, i am slightly worried it may have been a spike game and I could be left with a 70-80 scorer.

With Kelly, I felt he was the best pick of the bunch just because he has such a huge ceiling and their elite midfield last year didn't seem to worry him. If they push Parfitt into the middle then it may just mean Danger and Ablett go forward more to split the minutes and then I can't really see anyone else new being added to the midfield from last year.

Wallis seems to face the same issue as Kelly competing for minutes in a midfield with Bont, Macrae, Hunter, Libba, Dunkley, McLean, Daniel and possibly others which really does scare me with all 3 of those Dogs forwards.

Mundy and Boak have age concerns. Although, the coaches definitely honed in on the knowledge that they will be taking Ebert out of the midfield and putting him forward for long stints this year. This was seen in the JLT as well and saw Boak look very good in his midfield role which does make me bullish. Combined with Wingard leaving (who averaged 5+ clearances a game on the back end of 2018), I don't think Wines coming back effects Boak's role and would be more likely to push out someone like Drew or Atley who is giving a roll as a contested bull in the first 2-3 weeks while Wines is out. Their definitely seems enough room for Wines, SPP, Rockliff, Boak and Gray to run through the midfield on most weeks and I'm hopeful that taking the captaincy (which did seem to effect Boak along with his private life issues over the past couple of years) will see an improvement, a.l.a Beams last year (not to that extent obviously).

I don't know enough about how Mundy's role to comment on his situation but it may be a similar case of a player the team knows is still best in the midfield role getting more opportunities with Blakely and Neale gone... or, they may blood a heap more time into Cerra, Brayshaw and Banfield and leave Mundy as more of a forward with stints in the middle.

Gunston for consistency and the floating KPF hybrid (like Darling) appeals strongly and would be looked at a lot had it not been for an injury interrupted pre-season.

Anyway just me dribbling!
 

jarrad_

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whats your view about paying top dollar for a premium mid with no practise matches?

and have many or any other premium mids gone up or stayed the same in the season they played no practise games?

really like josh Kelly but the lack of practise matches does worry me should I be worried in his case?

thank you in advance
 

Cattleherder

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Hi Rowsus
I hope things are going well for you in Denmark. It feels like footy time again when I can read your thread! Already I am being challenged by your responses. I have two questions if you don’t mind:
1. Is there any particular reason why you are picking a young team as you say in your post 9152 to Slammer? Is it the new rules?
2. I currently have D Moore in my backline but after reading your comments re Libba to Quite Ironic, I am wondering why I have him? Have I been lured by his cheapness or is he just really an expensive rookie? Should I pick a cheap rookie instead is the question in my head?

Appreciate your comments as always
 
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Hi Rowsus,

I’m currently playing around with Witts and English as my rucks with the aim of bringing in both Gawn and Grundy before round 9/10. Think they can both score quite well for the first few rounds, but not sure it’s worth the risk.

What do you think I would need from them to call this move ‘a win’ ?

Cheers
 

Rowsus

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whats your view about paying top dollar for a premium mid with no practise matches?

and have many or any other premium mids gone up or stayed the same in the season they played no practise games?

really like josh Kelly but the lack of practise matches does worry me should I be worried in his case?

thank you in advance
There's no guarantee they'll be a failed pick. but I'd avoid it.
The bottom line is, there are 20 or 30 decent players to pick from, for your 12 to 14 Keepers, so why pick one that must have a question mark over the quality of his preparation?
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus
I hope things are going well for you in Denmark. It feels like footy time again when I can read your thread! Already I am being challenged by your responses. I have two questions if you don’t mind:
1. Is there any particular reason why you are picking a young team as you say in your post 9152 to Slammer? Is it the new rules?
2. I currently have D Moore in my backline but after reading your comments re Libba to Quite Ironic, I am wondering why I have him? Have I been lured by his cheapness or is he just really an expensive rookie? Should I pick a cheap rookie instead is the question in my head?

Appreciate your comments as always
Hi Cattle, things over here are pretty good thanks. I hope you are travelling well.

The first part of your question has actually spawned it's own thread. So, well done, good question!
You'll find it here:

Why Choose Younger Expensive Players?

2. Libba. This game is all about setting reasonable expectations, and hoping your selections can meet or surpass those expectations. Libba's not for me. When you take a player at his price, you want at least a profit of $80-$100k on the deal. I actually think, if Libba stays on the park, he can do that. I generally slant against Stepping Stone type picks, but don't rule them out all together. Where I do draw the line on them, is picking them in the Mids. I'd really only consider them in the other 3 lines, as the Mid line is the best point scoring line, and the line for the best potential dollar makers, I like to keep it "clean". I wish people luck, that take Libba, and he could easily meet their expectations, but as I said, he's not for me. If you think he can stay on the park, average low 80's or better, and you can't use the loose change from turning him into a Rookie, to reach a better option from one of your other players, then I say, go ahead and pick him!
I actually have Moore in my team, despite what I wrote about the poor record of Mid Pricers. I'm looking at him more as an expensive Rookie, with good JS, than a Mid Pricer. Obviously, the cheaper the Mid Pricer you choose, the more chance you can call him a success, as if he gives you useful points PLUS making $80-$100+k, then he's done his job!

Good luck. :)
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,

I’m currently playing around with Witts and English as my rucks with the aim of bringing in both Gawn and Grundy before round 9/10. Think they can both score quite well for the first few rounds, but not sure it’s worth the risk.

What do you think I would need from them to call this move ‘a win’ ?

Cheers
Hi Pieman17,
I think they are in slightly different baskets.
Witts success is nearly linked to what the worse of Grundy or Gawn produces. If they produce better than you hoped, you need Witts to go at about 105 or better, to call it a win. If one or both of big two "crash" to the 110 area or lower, then Witts scoring a 100 is probably a win.
English is an out and out Stepping Stone, so from his starting price of $310k, you need him to average 80 or better to be considered a successful pick, as that will put him in $80k+ area, for cash generation.
 
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