Questions For Rowsus

t.thomas6

300 Games Club
Joined
14 Feb 2013
Messages
1,553
Likes
198
AFL Club
North Melb.
Hi Cattle, things over here are pretty good thanks. I hope you are travelling well.

The first part of your question has actually spawned it's own thread. So, well done, good question!
You'll find it here:

Why Choose Younger Expensive Players?

2. Libba. This game is all about setting reasonable expectations, and hoping your selections can meet or surpass those expectations. Libba's not for me. When you take a player at his price, you want at least a profit of $80-$100k on the deal. I actually think, if Libba stays on the park, he can do that. I generally slant against Stepping Stone type picks, but don't rule them out all together. Where I do draw the line on them, is picking them in the Mids. I'd really only consider them in the other 3 lines, as the Mid line is the best point scoring line, and the line for the best potential dollar makers, I like to keep it "clean". I wish people luck, that take Libba, and he could easily meet their expectations, but as I said, he's not for me. If you think he can stay on the park, average low 80's or better, and you can't use the loose change from turning him into a Rookie, to reach a better option from one of your other players, then I say, go ahead and pick him!
I actually have Moore in my team, despite what I wrote about the poor record of Mid Pricers. I'm looking at him more as an expensive Rookie, with good JS, than a Mid Pricer. Obviously, the cheaper the Mid Pricer you choose, the more chance you can call him a success, as if he gives you useful points PLUS making $80-$100+k, then he's done his job!

Good luck. :)
Hey Rowan,

First question of 2019 for me and I'm going to tap on to the end of this response.

I also have Moore for the reason you outlined above and it has also drawn me to J. Cousins as an "expensive" mid rookie. I'd be keen to hear your thoughts on him.

My reasons for looking at him is he has excellent JS, looked quite solid in the JLT and his price point makes him look to be a safer bet than say a Worpel (who I've also considered).
 

Slammer

400 Games Club
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
1,846
Likes
35
AFL Club
Carlton
Hi Rows,

Just another question. I am interested on your thoughts on Rockliff and Dom Sheed this year.
Rocky as we know has proven to be a great Supercoach gun in the past. Is he past his time?
Do we put last year down to just a bad year after coming off an injury and settling into a new side?
Dom Sheed - Is this his year? Looks to have gained confidence from kicking the winning goal and has performed well in the JLT.
Will we see the talent of this Round 1 draft pick come to the fore this year? Or once Gaff returns his scores will be back to normal?

Cheers
 

Beg2Differ

Rising Star Winner
Joined
22 Oct 2014
Messages
519
Likes
392
AFL Club
North Melb.
Hi Rowsus

A bit of a different question that I thought might take your fancy. The usual question would be how much does Grundy have to average at $700k plus to be considered a good pick. I have the inverse question. How high does he have to average before his omission would be considered a poor decision?

I also have the same question about Macrae and Jake Lloyd.

I pick those three because they caused me the most grief last year when they weren’t in my team but obviously are all very expensive this year.
 
Joined
15 Mar 2017
Messages
14
Likes
10
Hi mate,
I remember reading earlier that you were planning to load up on blokes who might benefit from the new kick in rule. Was just wondering if you had a view on how the new kick in rule effected supercoach scoring throughout the JLT. Do you reckon kick-in specialists were given extra points?
 
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
17,135
Likes
2,722
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hey Rowan,

First question of 2019 for me and I'm going to tap on to the end of this response.

I also have Moore for the reason you outlined above and it has also drawn me to J. Cousins as an "expensive" mid rookie. I'd be keen to hear your thoughts on him.

My reasons for looking at him is he has excellent JS, looked quite solid in the JLT and his price point makes him look to be a safer bet than say a Worpel (who I've also considered).
Hey t.t6,
I considered Cousins, but I'm a bit worried about his on going role. Having said that, he only needs to average 75 to be a decent pick. I'm just worried if he loses the SC friendly role he had during the JLT, that he may even struggle to average that. I think there are enough good, cheaper Rookies in the Mids, without having to go to Cousins. Time may prove me wrong, though!
 
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
17,135
Likes
2,722
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rows,

Just another question. I am interested on your thoughts on Rockliff and Dom Sheed this year.
Rocky as we know has proven to be a great Supercoach gun in the past. Is he past his time?
Do we put last year down to just a bad year after coming off an injury and settling into a new side?
Dom Sheed - Is this his year? Looks to have gained confidence from kicking the winning goal and has performed well in the JLT.
Will we see the talent of this Round 1 draft pick come to the fore this year? Or once Gaff returns his scores will be back to normal?

Cheers
Hi Slam,
Rocky is 29 now, and 3 of his past 4 seasons have been on the disappointing side, as have 3 of his past 4 game counts. While he might have one last gasp in him, it's a $400k risk I don't want to take.
Sheed - I know he had a good Finals series, and he's in the Break out stage of his career, but there just aren't enough good scores in his past 2 seasons, to give me the confidence he can do it at a consistent rate.
2018 H & A season, only one score over 90!
2017 H & A season only five 100+ scores, and the 2nd highest was 107!
I'd like to have seen more, before I backed him in this season.
 
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
17,135
Likes
2,722
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus

A bit of a different question that I thought might take your fancy. The usual question would be how much does Grundy have to average at $700k plus to be considered a good pick. I have the inverse question. How high does he have to average before his omission would be considered a poor decision?

I also have the same question about Macrae and Jake Lloyd.

I pick those three because they caused me the most grief last year when they weren’t in my team but obviously are all very expensive this year.
Hi B2D,
while some might argue that all 3 need the approach I'm going to take with Ruck part of the question, I am going to tackle the non-Rucks in a different way.
Grundy - for a Grundy to be considered a regrettable omission, he needs to do both of average at least around 114, but also be around 8+ better than all the other Rucks, other than Gawn. If he doesn't do both of those, people will feel they reached him comfortably enough, if the they picked the right route to get there.
Macrae - probably needs to average around 116-117+ to be a regrettable omission. If he does that or better, it will either eat your 2 best Rookies to get him, or possibly 2.5 trades, depending on the timing of the trade in.
Lloyd - I reckon Lloyd needs to do better than 107-108 to be a regrettable omission. That probably clearly makes him a top 2 Def.

Interesting take on your question. Thanks, B2D. :)
 
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
17,135
Likes
2,722
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi mate,
I remember reading earlier that you were planning to load up on blokes who might benefit from the new kick in rule. Was just wondering if you had a view on how the new kick in rule effected supercoach scoring throughout the JLT. Do you reckon kick-in specialists were given extra points?
Hi Abad,
I'll be getting to your pm soon. Hopefully over the weekend.
To be honest, I didn't really try and keep track of it over the JLT. The Clubs themselves are still working things out with the new rules, so the JLT wasn't a great test for how it will affect scoring during the season. They were also experimenting with other areas, set plays, roles etc, so it really isn't a great testing ground for knowlege on scoring for us coaches.
 

Beg2Differ

Rising Star Winner
Joined
22 Oct 2014
Messages
519
Likes
392
AFL Club
North Melb.
Hi B2D,
while some might argue that all 3 need the approach I'm going to take with Ruck part of the question, I am going to tackle the non-Rucks in a different way.
Grundy - for a Grundy to be considered a regrettable omission, he needs to do both of average at least around 114, but also be around 8+ better than all the other Rucks, other than Gawn. If he doesn't do both of those, people will feel they reached him comfortably enough, if the they picked the right route to get there.
Macrae - probably needs to average around 116-117+ to be a regrettable omission. If he does that or better, it will either eat your 2 best Rookies to get him, or possibly 2.5 trades, depending on the timing of the trade in.
Lloyd - I reckon Lloyd needs to do better than 107-108 to be a regrettable omission. That probably clearly makes him a top 2 Def.

Interesting take on your question. Thanks, B2D. :)
Thanks Row

Those number are all probably a little lower than I would have expected you to say given they are quite a bit below where they are priced. It probably makes me more inclined to pick them. As it stands I have Macrae and Lloyd but not Grundy even though I still have no clear idea what I will do in the rucks.
 
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
17,135
Likes
2,722
AFL Club
Melbourne
Thanks Row

Those number are all probably a little lower than I would have expected you to say given they are quite a bit below where they are priced. It probably makes me more inclined to pick them. As it stands I have Macrae and Lloyd but not Grundy even though I still have no clear idea what I will do in the rucks.
I have Macrae. He was selected as part of my Captain strategy, so I get to by-pass his high price ticket as an excuse not to pick him.
The Rucks are a real pickle, and I have a feeling there is one more twist in the tale come selections this week. I have a feeling we might see one or two cheap Rucks we weren't sure if they'd get picked, get picked. That'll put people like you and me, and anyone else trying to avoid Gawn/Grundy on the edge of their seats!
I'd be interested to hear your figures on "regrettable omission" on those 3 players.
Macrae and Lloyd really only have to make top 3, as long as there is some sort of gap back to say 5th. Grundy has to space 3rd, but still get well into the teens. I think on my numbers, that's what they'd do. I'm not sure those are the numbers they'll record, but they'sachieve those things, if they did.
 

Beg2Differ

Rising Star Winner
Joined
22 Oct 2014
Messages
519
Likes
392
AFL Club
North Melb.
Hi B2D,
while some might argue that all 3 need the approach I'm going to take with Ruck part of the question, I am going to tackle the non-Rucks in a different way.
Grundy - for a Grundy to be considered a regrettable omission, he needs to do both of average at least around 114, but also be around 8+ better than all the other Rucks, other than Gawn. If he doesn't do both of those, people will feel they reached him comfortably enough, if the they picked the right route to get there.
Macrae - probably needs to average around 116-117+ to be a regrettable omission. If he does that or better, it will either eat your 2 best Rookies to get him, or possibly 2.5 trades, depending on the timing of the trade in.
Lloyd - I reckon Lloyd needs to do better than 107-108 to be a regrettable omission. That probably clearly makes him a top 2 Def.

Interesting take on your question. Thanks, B2D. :)
That’s not fair. I thought this thread was so I didn’t have to think about those sorts of things.😁

My gut feel is that I would be putting about 5 points on top of all of those.

I agree that Grundy is a different proposition because their are very few reliable alternatives. However if I chose Goldy as a reference then I think a reasonable expectation of his output is 105 and if Grundy was going 114 I would be thinking the $150k saved is making up most of that 9 difference elsewhere. However if the difference was 14 I would be thinking it probably isn’t.

If Macrae was going at 117 and Lloyd 108 I would probably also be thinking that my alternatives should probably be close enough that to mean the saved cash is making up the difference. However 122 and 113 then probably not.

Anyway I think that gives us some regrettable omission ranges.
Grundy 114-119
Macrae 117-122
Lloyd 108-113

Thanks again.
 

Cattleherder

Rising Star Winner
Joined
5 Apr 2012
Messages
319
Likes
43
AFL Club
Geelong
I actually have Moore in my team, despite what I wrote about the poor record of Mid Pricers. I'm looking at him more as an expensive Rookie, with good JS, than a Mid Pricer. Obviously, the cheaper the Mid Pricer you choose, the more chance you can call him a success, as if he gives you useful points PLUS making $80-$100+k, then he's done his job!

Good luck.
Hi Rowsus. As I typed my question on Moore l became convinced he was a bad idea as an expensive rookie type! I suppose it depends how many promising DEF rookies come our way.
 
Joined
17 Jan 2015
Messages
729
Likes
69
AFL Club
Collingwood
Hi Row,

Hope you've had a fantastic Christmas/New Years and are fresh and revitalised, ready for a massive season of statistical analysis and enduring the questions of the masses!

My first question of the year is regarding the new 6-6-6 rules, specifically around the impact this will have on certain players who rely upon stoppages for contested ball-winning points.

Over the JLT, was there any indication that there were fewer stoppages? And if so, which players will be negatively impacted if any?

Cheers!
 
Joined
4 Mar 2016
Messages
5
Likes
6
Hi Rowsus,

Recently discovered your content (especially your older stuff) and it has legitimately changed my supercoach thinking (hopefully for the better). I love your thought process and detail to analysis. I have great confidence in my F3 and F4 seeing you have both aswell. As a dogs supporter, I really like Wallis, has apparently gone to another level this off season spurred on by his resigning and seems to be slipping under the radar from coaches. With all the talk of McLean playing forward, people are assuming Dunkley will take his mid time but I feel like Wallis will get mid time before both of them.

Ive been really big on Coniglio like yourself and have unfortunately had to watch his ownership go from 4% to 17% over the past month. Him and Macrae have been locked in for some time in my team.

My questions today are about a couple of returners who were once premiums. Would you consider running Greene at D5 or would you be wary of his injury/suspension history? I dont mind going that deep in the forwards and would consider Moore there too (currently have him D4), especially with the issues we have with the forward rookies. My other question is about Brandon Ellis as my 3rd defender alongside Crisp/Hurn or ZWilliams. He didnt miss a game in the 4 seasons from 2014-17 with averages of 96.9/100.3/85.4/91.4. A scoring history like this and an age of only 25 is making me heavily consider him. Am I mad?

Cheers!
 
Joined
28 Feb 2013
Messages
1,148
Likes
82
hi row

i hope you're doing well and ready for the season

i am not sure if this question has been answered and if it has please let me know where i can find the post. i was hoping to get your thoughts on brad crouch? i feel brave asking this question given the most games his played is 17 but IMO he presents a lot of value and i need a mid price player. i dont feel confident that he will give me more than 14 games but if he is averaging ok, i can trade him during the byes. let me know if he is player that you would recommend?

i also read your thoughts regarding rocky, l
 
Joined
13 Jan 2015
Messages
582
Likes
59
AFL Club
Brisbane
whats your thoughts on petracca?

6-6-6 should help him being the type of player that he is and it is his 5th year which is a good brakeout year but being in as good as a team that he is would be the only reason why I wouldn't pick him

thanks in advance
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
17,135
Likes
2,722
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Row,

Hope you've had a fantastic Christmas/New Years and are fresh and revitalised, ready for a massive season of statistical analysis and enduring the questions of the masses!

My first question of the year is regarding the new 6-6-6 rules, specifically around the impact this will have on certain players who rely upon stoppages for contested ball-winning points.

Over the JLT, was there any indication that there were fewer stoppages? And if so, which players will be negatively impacted if any?

Cheers!
Hi MCM,
gee, Xmas/NY seems like a very VERY long time ago. I'm not sure I'm revitalised, I'm finding as I get older, revitalisation is but a dream.
First let me address the JLT. I don't think the JLT shed any light on what changes we might see from the new rules, in regards to SC scoring. It's nearly like a different game (the JLT matches), so it is a very loose guide.

My theory is, that those players in the Centre Bounces will gather slightly fewer Contested Possessions, as there will be a bit more open play in those intial seconds. That will be offset by them getting a slightly better D/E %, as they will have slightly more time with some of those first possessions. Here are the last 3 seasons numbers, just so we might compare by seasons end. I should probably just look at engine room players, but here are the totals:

2018 - 154,724 disposals - 60,233 Contested (38.9%) - D/E% 72.0%
2017 - 158,234 disposals - 59,037 Contested (37.3%) - D/E% 73.3%
2016 - 154,688 disposals - 58,699 Contested (37.9%) - D/E% 73.5%

I'm talking very small changes. Something like 37% CP and 74% D/E%.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
17,135
Likes
2,722
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hi Rowsus,

Recently discovered your content (especially your older stuff) and it has legitimately changed my supercoach thinking (hopefully for the better). I love your thought process and detail to analysis. I have great confidence in my F3 and F4 seeing you have both aswell. As a dogs supporter, I really like Wallis, has apparently gone to another level this off season spurred on by his resigning and seems to be slipping under the radar from coaches. With all the talk of McLean playing forward, people are assuming Dunkley will take his mid time but I feel like Wallis will get mid time before both of them.

Ive been really big on Coniglio like yourself and have unfortunately had to watch his ownership go from 4% to 17% over the past month. Him and Macrae have been locked in for some time in my team.

My questions today are about a couple of returners who were once premiums. Would you consider running Greene at D5 or would you be wary of his injury/suspension history? I dont mind going that deep in the forwards and would consider Moore there too (currently have him D4), especially with the issues we have with the forward rookies. My other question is about Brandon Ellis as my 3rd defender alongside Crisp/Hurn or ZWilliams. He didnt miss a game in the 4 seasons from 2014-17 with averages of 96.9/100.3/85.4/91.4. A scoring history like this and an age of only 25 is making me heavily consider him. Am I mad?

Cheers!
Hi C98,
thanks for the kind words. If I get people to look at things from a slightly different angle, then I am pleased. I don't need to change their mind or opinion, just hopefully open some eyes to another point of view, they may not have considered.

I'm slightly disappointed it was made public that McLean might play more Fwd this season. I had observed that during JLT2, and was hoping some would be seduced by his last years numbers. That news probably put a few off him. I agree with you, I think Wallis is in front of both of them for Mid time.
If Coniglio gets much more popular, I might have to drop him! Part of the attraction was the POD factor. I'll probably keep him though.

Greene
Toby is one of my favourite players to watch, and when in form, I believe he is the best one on one small player in the game. I've had him in my SC team, unfortunately, the past 2 seasons. He's too big a risk for me. His price is bordering on too high to be a Stepping Stone, as he has to go close to Keeper status, to make enough dollars, to be considered a success. Brain fades, injuries, and a doubt he can produce a 20+/95 season mean I will be going without him this season. I have Moore in my Fwd line, as I currently have more faith in Def rookies, than the Fwd Rookies.

B Ellis
A lot of people were keen on Ellis coming into 2018, mainly based on him finishing 2017 with:
147, 96, 110, 119, 96, 78, 98, 92, 110, 65, 79, 110, 101 - 13/100
Let's look closer at those past 5 seasons:
2014 - 22/97 - Disp 26.1, CP 6.6, Goals 0.43, % of Disp that were kicks 59.1%, TOG 86%
2015 - 22/100 - Disp 25.8, CP 6.8, Goals 0.35, % of Disp that were kicks 57.5%, TOG 86%
2016 - 22/85 - Disp 23.6, CP 6.4, Goals 0.23, % of Disp that were kicks 55.8%, TOG 86%
2017 - 22/91 - Disp 22.3, CP 6.6, Goals 0.28, % of Disp that were kicks 59.1%, TOG 84%
2018 - 22/71 - Disp 19.8, CP 5.0, Goals 0.17, % of Disp that were kicks 56.7%, TOG 81%

That's a fairly consistent downward trend.
Let's look at it another way.
2016 - 22/85
2017 Rnds 1-9 - 9/79
2017 Rnds 10-23 - 13/100
2018 - 22/71

So you have one 13 game hot streak, in the middle of an obvious downward trend. I'm not sure he has the pace to play the role that saw him score a lot of 100+ scores in 2014/5, where he was running off half back, and through the Midfield. It would seem Richmond's list and game plan has gone past him, in a SC sense.
I think he's way too big of a risk to pick. Sorry.
 
Top