Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Tails

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Not on your shortlist but DBJ if you have time .... went back through the thread and don't recall seeing him ....

Obviously I'm a Port supporter but he "might" tick a few boxes for me ....
 

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Not on your shortlist but DBJ if you have time .... went back through the thread and don't recall seeing him ....

Obviously I'm a Port supporter but he "might" tick a few boxes for me ....
Post 9454- Page 480.

Hi Bob, good to see you back.
I know it's a small sample size, so it is possible it is more coincidence than cause, but I noticed something with his scoring last season. It seemed to be tied to Burton being there, or not.

View attachment 15440

DBJ went 7/101.5 when Burton missed, or played 41% TOG or less.
When Burton played a full game, DBJ went 14/79.0.
It may be misleading, but it's enough for me to pass on DBJ, unless something happens to Burton.
 

Tails

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Post 9454- Page 480.
TY ... after looking at it, if you take out the game where he scored "7" .... yep I brought him in that week with spare trades to boot (killed my season) ... the averages are a bit misleading IMO ... all Port players got smashed in that game ...

Hinks has no game plan against some of the top sides IMO and unfortunately they face the same match ups in round 5 ...

- Tends to starts slow which is an obvious put off but trying to look beyond the averages to find value ...
 

Rowsus

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I currently have Dion Prestia in my side, what is his average at the MCG considering he plays 9 games there before the round 13 bye.

Will his average be enough of an offset for Rnd 5 vs WCE @ Optus Stadium and Rnd 7 vs GWS @ MCG
Before I reveal Prestia's stats, let me say, you shouldn't avoid picking a player because he has this opposition in Round 5, or Round 7. They have to play them sometime, and two "bad" games out of seven is actually a pretty good draw!

Prestia 2018 (11/89.9)
MCG 7/84.4 (all wins)
Marvel 2/108.0 (both wins)
In Melbourne 9/89.7 (all wins)
Interstate 2/85.5 (1 win, 1 loss)
Prestia 2019 (22/101.3)
MCG 13/106.3 (wins 11/110.3, losses 2/84.5)
Marvel 4/99.5 (wins 2/107.5, losses 2/91.5)
In Melbourne 17/104.7 (wins 13/109.4, losses 4/88.0)
Interstate 5/89.8 (wins 3/87.3, losses 2/93.5)
Wins 16/105.6, losses 6/89.8
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus
Can I have your opinion on starting A.Phillips,
with TBC on the sidelines, instead of Gawn?
And having L.Jackson at R3.
Phillips $403,100 5/92.8
Rnd 1 - 98 - v Richmond - solo Ruck v Nank, 27 to 34 H/O's 8 tackles
Rnd 2 - 79 - v Port - solo Ruck v Lycett/Ryder 29 to 58 H/O's
Rnd 7 - 75 - v North - with Casboult v Goldy 28 to 34 H/O's
Rnd 19 - 114 - v Ade - with Casboult v R'OB/Jenkins 35 to 32 H/O's kicked a goal
Rnd 20 - 90 - v WC - with Casboult v Hickey/Allen 30 to 23 H/O's

Looked ok against opponents that gave up ok/good scores to opponents, struggled against stronger opposition.
Has a good draw the first 5 Rounds, then smashes into a brickwall the next 4 Rounds.
Rnds 1-5: Freo, Syd, Carl, GWS, Ade - goodo! :p
Rnds 6-9: Coll, Melb, Geel, Nth - holy crap! :eek:
Phillips probably has questionable JS, and will likely lose any small amount he made in the first 5 Rounds, over the next 4 Rounds.
L Jackson will probably be cotton-woolled, and I can't see him getting early games. I think Melb would just use tall players, if Gawn/Preuss miss.
 
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For our color blind friends

Salem - (n)
Houston - :love:
Weller - (n)
Dawson - :unsure:
Kelly T - :love:
Taranto - :unsure:
Worpel - (n)
Hopper - :unsure:
Steele - (n)
McLuggage - :unsure:
Parish - (n)
Gresham - (n)
Lipinski - (n)
Petracca - (n)
Stephenson - (n)
Rozee - (n)
Love it Rowsus, a great depiction.

But, for me, I would have T Kelly in the same group as Taranto, just a gut feel as I'm not sure about his output with all of the other WCE mids. Might be just me but he's not a lock like Houston, more of an upgrade target in my mind at least.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Row, love your work!

Fancy taking a look back over the last few years and finding which players had the best 6 week run during any point of the season? Maybe by position too if you can muster it?

Neale's start last year was ridiculous and he pretty much killed the season of anyone who didn't start him. He's the kind of guy we need, not the Dusty and Heeney types who don't really go on a season crushing run IMO.
Hey Agent 47, thanks for the kind words.
Let's start with something obscure: Is your real name Pat McCaffrig? :unsure:

QFR 2020 9649.png

I'm a little surprised at how low some of those numbers are, particularly in 2017.
The 2019 Mids were pretty close together. Treloar, Lyon and Cripps were all around 130 as well. Fyfe was 126.
 
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As I'm a maths nerd, let's take a purely mathematical approach to this.
We'll make some assumptions, just for the point of the exercise.
Let's look at 2 Coaches.
Coach A is G'n'R all the way. He also doesn't mind paying top dollar, for what he assumes is quality.
He starts a 12-0-18 (12 Prem, 0 Midpricers, 18 Rookie) team, and has Gawndy. His Prem structure is 3.4.2.3
Coach B is a value hunter. He has Gawndy, but likes taking a risk. He shops for value, and only has a few top dollar picks.
He starts a 11-4-15, and has a Prem/Midprice structure of 4.5.2.4

Coach A picks his Prems from the top 8 priced Defs/Fwds + top 10 priced Mids. He has Gawndy.
If Coach A wrote down all the Prem structures possible from those picks, he'd have:
56 x 210 x 1 x 56 = 658,560 different Prem structures to pick from. A really difficult task, but at least they are players with good recent history.

Coach B picks his Prems from the top 12 priced Def/Mids (he's looking for some value!) + top 15 priced Mids. He has Gawndy.
Coach B now needs to find his 4 Midpricers he's going to punt on. He picks 4 players from the 334 players priced from $280k to $450k.
Coach B got his computer to print out all the possible Prem/Midpricer teams he had to choose from. It came to:
495 x 3,003 x 1 x 495 x 509,267,001 = 37,472,000,000,000,000
Coach B faints, and says "No way!"
I'll pick my Midpricers from these 8 players (what are the chances he's got all the right Midricers in there?!)
Coach B cranks the computer up, and prints out the teams again.
He now has:
495 x 3,003 x 1 x 495 x 70 = 5,150,000,000 teams to choose from.

While some will correctly argue, that you can reduce both Coach A and Coach B's choices down, by eleminating injured players, interrupted preseasons etc, it is still very indicative.

Coach A has 658,560 teams to choose from.
Coach B, even if he has the right 8 Midpricers, has 5,150,000,000 teams to choose from.
That's 78,000 times more teams.

Who do you think has the greater possibility of success?
Nice Rowsus. When I look at the good years, it is the year where more GnR is picked. changed my way post an article you did a few years which showed the likelihood picking successful mid prices was somewhere in the 10-30% range from memory. Last year started 13 premiums and only one was changed due to injury. Ranked 650 by round 7-8. I don't go overall so drifted back after that, but it highlighted the process works.
 
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Before I reveal Prestia's stats, let me say, you shouldn't avoid picking a player because he has this opposition in Round 5, or Round 7. They have to play them sometime, and two "bad" games out of seven is actually a pretty good draw!

Prestia 2018 (11/89.9)
MCG 7/84.4 (all wins)
Marvel 2/108.0 (both wins)
In Melbourne 9/89.7 (all wins)
Interstate 2/85.5 (1 win, 1 loss)
Prestia 2019 (22/101.3)
MCG 13/106.3 (wins 11/110.3, losses 2/84.5)
Marvel 4/99.5 (wins 2/107.5, losses 2/91.5)
In Melbourne 17/104.7 (wins 13/109.4, losses 4/88.0)
Interstate 5/89.8 (wins 3/87.3, losses 2/93.5)
Wins 16/105.6, losses 6/89.8
Rowsus

Thank you for your work with this, the human meatball has a break even of 101.

Looks like it's going to be spicy meatballs for 2020!
 
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As I'm a maths nerd, let's take a purely mathematical approach to this.
We'll make some assumptions, just for the point of the exercise.
Let's look at 2 Coaches.
Coach A is G'n'R all the way. He also doesn't mind paying top dollar, for what he assumes is quality.
He starts a 12-0-18 (12 Prem, 0 Midpricers, 18 Rookie) team, and has Gawndy. His Prem structure is 3.4.2.3
Coach B is a value hunter. He has Gawndy, but likes taking a risk. He shops for value, and only has a few top dollar picks.
He starts a 11-4-15, and has a Prem/Midprice structure of 4.5.2.4

Coach A picks his Prems from the top 8 priced Defs/Fwds + top 10 priced Mids. He has Gawndy.
If Coach A wrote down all the Prem structures possible from those picks, he'd have:
56 x 210 x 1 x 56 = 658,560 different Prem structures to pick from. A really difficult task, but at least they are players with good recent history.

Coach B picks his Prems from the top 12 priced Def/Mids (he's looking for some value!) + top 15 priced Mids. He has Gawndy.
Coach B now needs to find his 4 Midpricers he's going to punt on. He picks 4 players from the 334 players priced from $280k to $450k.
Coach B got his computer to print out all the possible Prem/Midpricer teams he had to choose from. It came to:
495 x 3,003 x 1 x 495 x 509,267,001 = 37,472,000,000,000,000
Coach B faints, and says "No way!"
I'll pick my Midpricers from these 8 players (what are the chances he's got all the right Midricers in there?!)
Coach B cranks the computer up, and prints out the teams again.
He now has:
495 x 3,003 x 1 x 495 x 70 = 5,150,000,000 teams to choose from.

While some will correctly argue, that you can reduce both Coach A and Coach B's choices down, by eleminating injured players, interrupted preseasons etc, it is still very indicative.

Coach A has 658,560 teams to choose from.
Coach B, even if he has the right 8 Midpricers, has 5,150,000,000 teams to choose from.
That's 78,000 times more teams.

Who do you think has the greater possibility of success?
Hi Rowsus
Thanks for running those numbers, I can see where you're coming from but - correct me if I'm missing something - but you have really proved that its much, much harder to pick the best mid-pricer based team than it is to pick the best G&R based team.
That is a valid point of course and would be decisive if we assume that the 2 methods are likely to produce equivalent results. It would be good to know from the guy who churned out the 2019 optimum team if say, there were squillions of mid-pricer combos that produced higher scores than the best G&R score - but we don’t know.
A slight change of subject - if you're a maths nerd check out this mind-blowing link https://czep.net/weblog/52cards.html
 
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Hi Rowsus,
A little surprised to hear you are so bullish on Telly.
Would love to get your thoughts on Yeo. Slow start and low TOG (compared to 2018) all year makes me think he is more likely to improve than Telly who only seems to have "natural progression" as his upside. Does Telly coming into the side put you off Yeo?

Edit - would also love your thoughts on Worpel if you don’t mind. Seems to be consistently improving in all right areas to become a premium.
 
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Hi Rowsus
Thanks for running those numbers, I can see where you're coming from but - correct me if I'm missing something - but you have really proved that its much, much harder to pick the best mid-pricer based team than it is to pick the best G&R based team.
That is a valid point of course and would be decisive if we assume that the 2 methods are likely to produce equivalent results. It would be good to know from the guy who churned out the 2019 optimum team if say, there were squillions of mid-pricer combos that produced higher scores than the best G&R score - but we don’t know.
A slight change of subject - if you're a maths nerd check out this mind-blowing link https://czep.net/weblog/52cards.html
I had to have a lie down after reading that linko_O
 

Rowsus

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im pretty sure I know what your opinion of Sam Walsh will be but I will ask anyway lol

could he be this years Oliver?

apart from being different types of mids and different body shapes if anyone his shape and size could do a Oliver it would have to be him surely?

and the fact that he continually finds a way back in every time I take him out has to be a good sign surely lol
As you pointed out, they're different types. But lets compare Oliver's first 2 seasons, and Walsh's first.

QFR2020 9656a.png

Some of this is supposition/opinion, but anyway ....
Walsh started from a better fitness base than Oliver (Higher TOG, covered more ground shown by both R50 and I50 being higher).
Walsh has a far better K:H (1.15:1 to 0.44;1), but lower DE (to be expected when he kicks more) and lower CP% (38% to 50%).
Walsh has a higher Clanger rate/disposal (not all Clangers are disposals)
Walsh has a lower tackling and Clearance rate than Oliver, and played in a lower % of wins.

From year 1 to year 2 Oliver increased his TOG significantly, but also increased his Disposals/100%TOG (28.4 to 39.0). It's hard to see Walsh increasing his TOG, but he could improve his Disposals/100%TOG. To get into "Oliver Territory" he needs to improve his Tackle count, DE and CP%. While it's not impossible, it seems unlikely he can do it, and get to 110+ in SC. Oliver also has the advantage of standing at Gawn's feet.
I'd be amazed if Walsh didn't make progress, even into the 100-102 area, but I'd be pretty surprised if he managed say 108+.
 

Rowsus

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Yes a long time since I posted, but for some reason I had the impression this site had shut down. But on my point (trailing post) - I reckon mid-pricers are bad-mouthed a bit unfairly. If that's the way the optimum 2019 team started out, it's strong evidence that the G&R strategy is questionable.
I will 100% guarantee you, that every single year of SC, the "optimum team" will be full of Midpricers. Mathematically, because of the points/dollar basis, it has to be. Pretty much every year, or close to it, you can construct a set and forget team, that would win SC without even making a trade! That doesn't mean that approach is your best chance of winning SC in any given year.
The best comparison I can give you is, the chances of landing on that "optimum team" are less than the chances of you winning Tattslotto with one entry containing 6 numbers. Midpricers have a success rate of well less than 30%, and there are a hell of a lot more than them, than genuine Prems, who have a success rate (depending on your definition on both Prem and success) of around 60%. The chances of you picking a absolutely brilliant G'n'R team, are about the same as correctly naming two cards drawn randomly from a deck of playing cards. I much prefer that, to the Tattslotto odds.

Hi Rowsus
Thanks for running those numbers, I can see where you're coming from but - correct me if I'm missing something - but you have really proved that its much, much harder to pick the best mid-pricer based team than it is to pick the best G&R based team.
That is a valid point of course and would be decisive if we assume that the 2 methods are likely to produce equivalent results. It would be good to know from the guy who churned out the 2019 optimum team if say, there were squillions of mid-pricer combos that produced higher scores than the best G&R score - but we don’t know.
A slight change of subject - if you're a maths nerd check out this mind-blowing link https://czep.net/weblog/52cards.html
Thanks for the link. :)
I've seen a similar breakdown of the deck of cards before.
On a similar theme, around 15-20 years ago, I made a game that was a cross between chinese checkers and chess. It was for 2-6 players, and each player started with 6 playing pieces. Those playing pieces had set starting positions on the board, but could be placed in any order by the player using them.
When 6 people played there were 1.43 x 10^45 ways of setting up the board!
When 2 people played, there was 1.13 x 10^15 ways of setting up the board.
For a comparison, the number of ATOMS on Earth is around 1 x 10^50!
 
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G'Day Rowsus,

RE: …...….Midpricers have a success rate of well less than 30%, ………..

Do you see the Midpricers success rate to proven good scorers, who have dropped in price because of missing many games in a season, like a Docherty, J.Steven, the same as Midpricers who may improve, because of changes in circumstances, like a Houston, Greenwood?

Probably hard to answer, as each individual's case is different and their environment is different.
 
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whats your view on Brayden Sier?

worth the extra 30 grand more than Rowell?

the only way I see him not being a good pick is if they go Wills over him

and whats your view on hill and cockatoo?
 
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