Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Status
Not open for further replies.
Joined
31 Mar 2019
Messages
2,249
Likes
7,507
AFL Club
West Coast
@Rumbler your opponent losing Stewart, but gaining Bianco has made you an even shorter priced fav.
Probably costs him another 50 points.
Yeah big blow for him.
Hoping I don't get any injuries.

Next week's potential opponents have Petracca, Guthrie, Lyons & Steele as their PODs.
Assuming I don't get any injuries, I'm planning to flip Brayshaw to either Guthrie, Luke Parker or Parish. This will let me keep Lloyd, and have two trades for next week.
 
Joined
31 Mar 2019
Messages
2,249
Likes
7,507
AFL Club
West Coast
@Rowsus Opponent currently has Steele captain.
I'm thinking of taking Bramble's 78, trading out Brayshaw, switching to Sharp into mids and bringing in Daniel Rich. The thinking behind this is I believe Bramble's score will be greater than what Durham will score tomorrow. Don't really want to field Durham unless I absolutely have to.
Also, Lloyd will remain on the bench.
If I manage to make the final, my potential opponent next week also has Rich.
I will have 7 defenders if Lloyd plays next week but can switch Laird into mids. Will still have 2 trades to bring in Steele/injury trades.

Other option is to bring in Crisp or Dawson but thinking Rich is the better option with two home games to finish the season.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
28,743
Likes
62,806
AFL Club
Melbourne
@Rowsus Opponent currently has Steele captain.
I'm thinking of taking Bramble's 78, trading out Brayshaw, switching to Sharp into mids and bringing in Daniel Rich. The thinking behind this is I believe Bramble's score will be greater than what Durham will score tomorrow. Don't really want to field Durham unless I absolutely have to.
Also, Lloyd will remain on the bench.
If I manage to make the final, my potential opponent next week also has Rich.
I will have 7 defenders if Lloyd plays next week but can switch Laird into mids. Will still have 2 trades to bring in Steele/injury trades.

Other option is to bring in Crisp or Dawson but thinking Rich is the better option with two home games to finish the season.
As long as you think that that sets up next week better, then it sounds like a plan.
 
Joined
31 Mar 2019
Messages
2,249
Likes
7,507
AFL Club
West Coast
As long as you think that that sets up next week better, then it sounds like a plan.
To be honest, I'm not too sure!!! Having a quick glance at the opponent's team next week, these are the unique player match-ups (assuming I do the Rich trade now)
My uniques on the left in green, his on the right in blue:

Also I think Walsh will likely cop the MDB tag next week.

1628931105093.png
 
Joined
31 Mar 2019
Messages
2,249
Likes
7,507
AFL Club
West Coast
Hey @Rowsus !

Grand final week is here and I'm really hoping I can win again!!! Hope you've been smashing out your leagues as well!
The match-up is below (my team is on the left).

I've got Ziebell out but Briggs as cover. Got two trades and 5k cash left as well.

Opponent has Ziebell, Mansell, Poulter & Peatling out but has Bolton, Holmes, Bianco & Lloyd to field for cover. Apparently he has no trades left so I think he will have at least one donut as Stewart is out for the season.

What are the tactics here? Back the "premium" players? I'm most worried about Caleb Daniel & Daniel Rich. I think my projected score is inflated.

I need to make sure I get the captain choice right and hope his choices don't out-do my ones. Leaning towards Macrae as VC and maybe Oliver/Dangerfield/Jelly as captain if needed. Who would you go for?

I'm thinking "if all goes to plan" and I'm ahead in the match-up, I will keep Ziebell on the field and put Briggs as (E) on the bench.
If Briggs gets a really good score, then I'll do the following on Sunday.

Ziebell --> non-playing forward rookie from Essendon/Collingwood
Ridley --> Crisp (to match his POD)

If Briggs doesn't score well, then I'll do Ziebell --> Hind instead and hope Ridley does well.

What do you reckon?! Do I need to make another trade to bring in someone like Steele instead?

Thanks a million as always! 🙏

p.s. @Darkie another grand final match-up in my main league, fingers crossed!!! 🤞


1629366883397.png
1629366916321.png
1629366954333.png
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
28,743
Likes
62,806
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hey @Rowsus !

Grand final week is here and I'm really hoping I can win again!!! Hope you've been smashing out your leagues as well!
The match-up is below (my team is on the left).

I've got Ziebell out but Briggs as cover. Got two trades and 5k cash left as well.

Opponent has Ziebell, Mansell, Poulter & Peatling out but has Bolton, Holmes, Bianco & Lloyd to field for cover. Apparently he has no trades left so I think he will have at least one donut as Stewart is out for the season.

What are the tactics here? Back the "premium" players? I'm most worried about Caleb Daniel & Daniel Rich. I think my projected score is inflated.

I need to make sure I get the captain choice right and hope his choices don't out-do my ones. Leaning towards Macrae as VC and maybe Oliver/Dangerfield/Jelly as captain if needed. Who would you go for?

I'm thinking "if all goes to plan" and I'm ahead in the match-up, I will keep Ziebell on the field and put Briggs as (E) on the bench.
If Briggs gets a really good score, then I'll do the following on Sunday.

Ziebell --> non-playing forward rookie from Essendon/Collingwood
Ridley --> Crisp (to match his POD)

If Briggs doesn't score well, then I'll do Ziebell --> Hind instead and hope Ridley does well.

What do you reckon?! Do I need to make another trade to bring in someone like Steele instead?

Thanks a million as always! 🙏

p.s. @Darkie another grand final match-up in my main league, fingers crossed!!! 🤞


View attachment 33455
View attachment 33456
View attachment 33457
I think your pretty safe, but you never know.
I'd hold my trades until you know whether you need a POD, or are better off blocking one of his POD's.
Good luck 🤞
 
Joined
31 Mar 2019
Messages
2,249
Likes
7,507
AFL Club
West Coast
I think your pretty safe, but you never know.
I'd hold my trades until you know whether you need a POD, or are better off blocking one of his POD's.
Good luck 🤞
Well horrible start :cry:
Bont's rubbish score for me and Boak going massive for opponent has already meant around an 80 point swing.
Macrae VC didn't work out for me. Really don't know who to captain now. Opponent hasn't used his VC yet either.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
28,743
Likes
62,806
AFL Club
Melbourne
Well horrible start :cry:
Bont's rubbish score for me and Boak going massive for opponent has already meant around an 80 point swing.
Macrae VC didn't work out for me. Really don't know who to captain now. Opponent hasn't used his VC yet either.
Surprised you went Macrae, but you can still salvage a good C score.
 

Darkie

Leadership Group
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
24,637
Likes
63,018
AFL Club
Collingwood
Well horrible start :cry:
Bont's rubbish score for me and Boak going massive for opponent has already meant around an 80 point swing.
Macrae VC didn't work out for me. Really don't know who to captain now. Opponent hasn't used his VC yet either.
Personally I plan to use Mitchell as part of my captaincy group this week. I feel more comfortable with him as a VC than a C, but there’s some chat in the captaincy thread that indicates he could go really big if you need someone with the upside.

If you’re still favourite by the time he plays, you may be better off trying to block your opponent, albeit he has the two bites left.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
28,743
Likes
62,806
AFL Club
Melbourne
@Rumbler I agree with @Darkie .
Titch potentially goes enormous against an undermanned Richmond, who have been known to give up decent Mid scores anyway.
I also agree, that I'd prefer to VC him (which I have), but you now might be best blocking that avenue your opponent has, and hope Titch gets a score your opponent feels either compelled to lock in, or grimaces at the thought of passing it up, and potentially handing back 20 or 30 points.
 
Joined
15 Mar 2019
Messages
14,185
Likes
54,332
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Personally I plan to use Mitchell as part of my captaincy group this week. I feel more comfortable with him as a VC than a C, but there’s some chat in the captaincy thread that indicates he could go really big if you need someone with the upside.

If you’re still favourite by the time he plays, you may be better off trying to block your opponent, albeit he has the two bites left.
Mitchell plays in the next match.
 
Joined
31 Mar 2019
Messages
2,249
Likes
7,507
AFL Club
West Coast
Personally I plan to use Mitchell as part of my captaincy group this week. I feel more comfortable with him as a VC than a C, but there’s some chat in the captaincy thread that indicates he could go really big if you need someone with the upside.

If you’re still favourite by the time he plays, you may be better off trying to block your opponent, albeit he has the two bites left.

@Rumbler I agree with @Darkie .
Titch potentially goes enormous against an undermanned Richmond, who have been known to give up decent Mid scores anyway.
I also agree, that I'd prefer to VC him (which I have), but you now might be best blocking that avenue your opponent has, and hope Titch gets a score your opponent feels either compelled to lock in, or grimaces at the thought of passing it up, and potentially handing back 20 or 30 points.
I agree with trying to match his captain choice. BUT...problem is he knows my tricks and he'll only lock in his VC/C pick in the very last minute before a game locks out. That makes it super hard.

I'm fairly certain he'll go with Mitchell VC and I'm kinda inclined to let him and take the risk of him going huge. I can hope that Worpel's and O'Meara's returns may slightly reduce Mitchell's score. If I lock in Mitchell as captain directly and he doesn't deliver then that'll probably make me lose the match-up.
At this stage my gut feel is to pass on Mitchell.

Thinking of my captain choice...Oliver should do well but I'm concerned he might get tagged like Steele did last week in the 2nd half. So tossing up between Dangerfield and Josh Kelly...can't separate them at the moment.

Still got trades up my sleeves though. Holding off for now.
 
Joined
31 Mar 2019
Messages
2,249
Likes
7,507
AFL Club
West Coast
@Rumbler did your opponent stick with Titch as VC?
Yes...he had put Gawn as VC but changed to Titch in the last 30 seconds before the game locked out. I was observing to see what he would do. Just for a second I thought to myself "should I captain Titch" but then thought otherwise and just let it be.
 
Joined
31 Mar 2019
Messages
2,249
Likes
7,507
AFL Club
West Coast
@Rowsus @Darkie

Hey guys, here's an update! I'm currently ahead by 179 points: 17/1883 to opponent's 16/1704.

My remaining unique players (number in brackets is the player's projected score):
Ridley (99)

Opponent's remaining unique players:
Crisp (115)
Bianco (49)

We both have Marshall (101), Grundy (106), Hall (145) & Laird (124) left to play as common players.

However....neither of us have scored our captains yet!! He currently has his (C) set on Laird but pretty sure he's going to change last minute.

I'm actually considering locking in Macrae's 113 VC score and trading out Bianco + Ridley for a non-playing player + Crisp to nullify his POD.
If my math is correct, I think this will put me in a lead of 292 points with him having only Bianco left to play in his team plus whatever captain he chooses (his Titch VC scored 127).

If he doesn't take Titch's VC score and unless he captain's Bianco (which I highly doubt)...he will need to captain one of the players that we have in common.
Hoping you can verify my math but I think I'm in a "good" situation here for the win unless something horribly goes wrong? Even if Bianco scores 100 tomorrow, what would Laird/Hall have to get as captain for him to beat me?

Alternatively, can also do other moves like trading out Ziebell but Briggs (E) scored 84 which I think is decent so I've taken it in the calculations above.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
28,743
Likes
62,806
AFL Club
Melbourne
@Rumbler

I like the idea of taking Crisp out of his POD's, and I defintely think you should do that. The less avenues of attack he has, the better!

So that leaves the equation at:

Rumbler 179 + Captain v Opponent Bianco + Captain

Locking in Macrae's 113 changes the equation to:

Rumbler 292 v Opponent Bianco + Captain

It would seem inconceivable, that his combination can reach 292!

Highest scores of his attack combination so far this season:
Laird 178 + Bianco 83 = 261
Grundy 162 + Bianco 83 = 245
Marshall 158 + Bianco 83 = 241
Crisp 143 + Bianco 83 = 225
Hall 141 + Bianco 83 = 224

So his combo needs to hit a new season high by at least 31 points!

You could try and guess his Captain pick, which my guess is Laird or Hall, and match it, but that does potentially leave the door open, for him to have another chance to run you down.

I think you have played this GF very well, and your current plan is probably the one with the most chance of success.

Good luck
Rowsus
 
Joined
31 Mar 2019
Messages
2,249
Likes
7,507
AFL Club
West Coast
@Rumbler

I like the idea of taking Crisp out of his POD's, and I defintely think you should do that. The less avenues of attack he has, the better!

So that leaves the equation at:

Rumbler 179 + Captain v Opponent Bianco + Captain

Locking in Macrae's 113 changes the equation to:

Rumbler 292 v Opponent Bianco + Captain

It would seem inconceivable, that his combination can reach 292!

Highest scores of his attack combination so far this season:
Laird 178 + Bianco 83 = 261
Grundy 162 + Bianco 83 = 245
Marshall 158 + Bianco 83 = 241
Crisp 143 + Bianco 83 = 225
Hall 141 + Bianco 83 = 224

So his combo needs to hit a new season high by at least 31 points!

You could try and guess his Captain pick, which my guess is Laird or Hall, and match it, but that does potentially leave the door open, for him to have another chance to run you down.

I think you have played this GF very well, and your current plan is probably the one with the most chance of success.

Good luck
Rowsus
Thanks for the great run down as usual!! :)


Nice work @Rumbler! Just to confirm - your current lead does not include double points for your captain pick?

If so, you seem to be in a very good spot and have a good plan 🙂
Yep! Current lead doesn't include my captain's points!
Cheers!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top