Rate My Team (SC Team Picker)

TopBillings

Well-known member
Joined
16 Dec 2018
Messages
76
Likes
49
AFL Club
St Kilda
No worries PC. That’s a good point re Setterfield - I had missed that, thanks. M-F rookies seem thin on the ground this year, so he seems to be the main viable one I’ve seen (subject to fitness) but things can change quickly heading into round one.

As for the backs, it’s a tough one. I should mention that mine is currently: Whitfield, Williams, Hanley, Roberton, so I’m a little deeper but otherwise no more solid. I do have some dearer rookies in there at the moment (Collins, Scrimshaw, and previously Quaynor, who I now think could score poorly/inconsistently) so potentially they have more mature bodies (less injuries?) or greater JS. There are few options that are both proven and slightly discounted/where you can make a good case for upside though, so it’s probably a line to go light (just hopefully not too light!).

The rule changes could also be key for backs in my view, I just don’t have a strong view in who the winners and losers are at this stage. I suspect my final picks will be heavily influenced by this if we see shifts in the JLT.
Is Quanyor a lock for pies best 22?
 

Darkie

Vice Captain
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
4,519
Likes
711
AFL Club
Collingwood
Is Quanyor a lock for pies best 22?
To be honest there are other Pie fans (and maybe some non Pie fans!) who are better on these sorts of questions than I am.

Tom Phillips was talking him up here, although one player's opinion that he is ready doesn't exactly make him a lock, especially because they seem to have some history:

https://www.footywire.com/afl/club/player-biography/6595.html

The reason I removed him is that I read that he could be playing different roles, one of which sounded SC friendly (rebounding defender?) and one of which sounded terrible (lockdown). At his price I have limited interest in someone who could be playing an unfavourable role part of the time, especially down back where the rookie options are usually decent.
 

pizza safety

Well-known member
Joined
15 Oct 2018
Messages
250
Likes
387
AFL Club
Essendon
Love the rucks

Yeo the real interesting selection, i expect him to be lower than 10% ownership
Yeo I'm not 100% certain on and he's a bit of a pod risk but I feel like I "should" pick him. Has a pretty damn low disposals to score ratio so I see him as a player with considerable upside. When he has over 25 disposals he nearly always goes pretty big. This was also his first year as full time mid, so I think he still has time to get better, he's in the late bloomer category.

I was planning for a while on starting Nank but I don't think he has the same upside as Goldy, who I can see averaging just under 110. Also has the perfect bye to trade him to Gawn if it becomes a priority.

I actually consider Macrae the bigger risk than Yeo, he has been playing at a 120+ level for nearly a year and a half but I still feel like his jump was a little too big to justify his price. That being said if he can do it again he becomes a player you need and I'm going to take that risk to try to come as high as possible knowing that it could back fire.
 
Last edited:

Zagbag

100 Games Club
Joined
30 Jul 2014
Messages
858
Likes
175
AFL Club
Sydney
Without making a specific call on Walsh, I think it's fair to say the ultra high draft picks (i.e. Highest priced rookies) have generally been underwhelming on a value basis. A brief look over the last few years at the top 5 most expensive rookies, seeing which ones were decent picks (I draw a line in the sand at about 70 points per game)

2017 Draft: None
2016: None
2015: Oliver 70, Parish 72 Mills 77
2014: Petracca 73
2013: Bontempelli 79
2012: Whitfield 73

So 6 players out of 30 getting a pass mark. And it seems every year we hear it's a so-called "superdraft" with some exceptional top few picks.

I'm generally happy to stick with the big bodied / mature aged players around the $120k mark, and the NAB cup standouts..
 

pizza safety

Well-known member
Joined
15 Oct 2018
Messages
250
Likes
387
AFL Club
Essendon
Without making a specific call on Walsh, I think it's fair to say the ultra high draft picks (i.e. Highest priced rookies) have generally been underwhelming on a value basis. A brief look over the last few years at the top 5 most expensive rookies, seeing which ones were decent picks (I draw a line in the sand at about 70 points per game)

2017 Draft: None
2016: None
2015: Oliver 70, Parish 72 Mills 77
2014: Petracca 73
2013: Bontempelli 79
2012: Whitfield 73

So 6 players out of 30 getting a pass mark. And it seems every year we hear it's a so-called "superdraft" with some exceptional top few picks.

I'm generally happy to stick with the big bodied / mature aged players around the $120k mark, and the NAB cup standouts..
You can add these if we look at top 10 picks and early concession picks, regardless of cost the idea is exactly the same (can high picks score well. picks at this level still cost 170k + )

In their first year we have

2011: Heppell 83, D Swallow 79
2012: T Greene 94, Treloar 83, Shiel 75, Coniglio 75
2013: O'meara 90, Brad Crouch 87, Wines 74, Vlastuin 75
2015: Hogan 78
2017: McGrath 70

The early selection players actually cost 115.9-130k but the principle is the same.

Walsh to match it with some of the best of these imo, due to considerably higher junior numbers than any of the top picks from the past two years and midfield time.
 
Last edited:

Zagbag

100 Games Club
Joined
30 Jul 2014
Messages
858
Likes
175
AFL Club
Sydney
You can add these if we look at top 10 picks and early concession picks, regardless of cost the idea is exactly the same (can high picks score well. picks at this level still cost 170k + )

In their first year we have

2011: Heppell 83, D Swallow 79
2012: T Greene 94, Treloar 83, Shiel 75, Coniglio 75
2013: O'meara 90, Brad Crouch 87, Wines 74, Vlastuin 75
2015: Hogan 78
2017: McGrath 70

The early selection players actually cost 115.9-130k but the principle is the same.

Walsh to match it with some of the best of these imo, due to considerably higher junior numbers than any of the top picks from the past two years and midfield time.
I don't want to get into a debate about semantics, but the point being the principle isn't the same - paying $115k for a rookie (exactly what I was advocating) gives you a higher margin of safety than paying $200k.

This is reaching deep into the memory bank, but I'm pretty sure Greene was $134k(?) (GWS first year must be an exception to the rule), Wines was $156k(?), and O'Meara, Crouch were $120k. I don't know sites that have starting price information available.
 
Joined
12 Aug 2014
Messages
41
Likes
5
AFL Club
Essendon
I don't want to get into a debate about semantics, but the point being the principle isn't the same - paying $115k for a rookie (exactly what I was advocating) gives you a higher margin of safety than paying $200k.

This is reaching deep into the memory bank, but I'm pretty sure Greene was $134k(?) (GWS first year must be an exception to the rule), Wines was $156k(?), and O'Meara, Crouch were $120k. I don't know sites that have starting price information available.
try footy wire
 

Attachments

pizza safety

Well-known member
Joined
15 Oct 2018
Messages
250
Likes
387
AFL Club
Essendon
I don't want to get into a debate about semantics, but the point being the principle isn't the same - paying $115k for a rookie (exactly what I was advocating) gives you a higher margin of safety than paying $200k.

This is reaching deep into the memory bank, but I'm pretty sure Greene was $134k(?) (GWS first year must be an exception to the rule), Wines was $156k(?), and O'Meara, Crouch were $120k. I don't know sites that have starting price information available.
The point is top draft pick rookies can score well, price isn't what's important. Your point was that top end talent fails to produce in their rookie season and I have shown a number of other players who have, they performed well as top 10 draft picks or underage recruits who would have gone #1 or #2 if they weren't pre-selected because they were talented. Greene was pick 11, this year that's 162k. If we get these types of scores from a 200k rookie they are worth it.

Crouch and O'meara were both 115.9k, if they were picks 1 and 2 and their year was this year they would be 207k and 202k and both would have made 250k. Their price is irrelevant to the fact they were the top rated 18 year olds and scored around 90. My argument was not to look at how much cash these rookies made but that even at 200k the type of scores they had made them worth it as picks.
 
Last edited:

Bomber18

Dual Brownlow Medalist
Joined
11 Nov 2012
Messages
12,072
Likes
1,338
AFL Club
Essendon
It’s the average of the premium rookies over first 8-12 games that matter anyway....
Even if they average under 70, it’s possible that they spiked their price to above $150-200k earnt after a good stretch. Angus Brayshaw in his year a good example. Weitering too was tracking as a good pick before injury.

As with most first year rookies, it’s likely that the rookie drops their average in the second half of the year as they tire out, but during the first half they still may have made enough cash.
 

pizza safety

Well-known member
Joined
15 Oct 2018
Messages
250
Likes
387
AFL Club
Essendon
It’s the average of the premium rookies over first 8-12 games that matter anyway....
Even if they average under 70, it’s possible that they spiked their price to above $150-200k earnt after a good stretch. Angus Brayshaw in his year a good example. Weitering too was tracking as a good pick before injury.

As with most first year rookies, it’s likely that the rookie drops their average in the second half of the year as they tire out, but during the first half they still may have made enough cash.
That's right before a lot of them hit the rookie wall. Stephenson did this last year as well, he was definitely a better pick than Dom Barry who many started thinking that we need to go 5 premo's/midpricers deep in the midfield and forward line. The other thing I find a little bit underrated with expensive rookies is the cash they generate when you downgrade them, I know that return on investment and cash generation is critical but if you have a guy you can downgrade pretty early for 220k then you can more quickly pick a player who is going berserk who most people missed.
 

Presto

100 Games Club
Joined
1 Feb 2014
Messages
754
Likes
309
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I don't want to get into a debate about semantics, but the point being the principle isn't the same - paying $115k for a rookie (exactly what I was advocating) gives you a higher margin of safety than paying $200k.

This is reaching deep into the memory bank, but I'm pretty sure Greene was $134k(?) (GWS first year must be an exception to the rule), Wines was $156k(?), and O'Meara, Crouch were $120k. I don't know sites that have starting price information available.
O'Meara 2013 Started $115900 finished year 412,800 at 90.1
Greene 2012 Started $146600 finished year 532300 at 94.6
Wines 2013 Started $169500 finished year 302500 at 74
Crouch 2013 Started $115900 finished year 444400 at 87.1
 

randomcliche

Rising Star Nominee
Joined
3 May 2017
Messages
164
Likes
134
AFL Club
Hawthorn

Torress

50 Games Club
Joined
15 Sep 2012
Messages
420
Likes
35
AFL Club
Essendon
Hey everyone, thought i'd share my current team. Besides Danger and Grundy no one else is officially locked away yet.

D - Whitfield, Ryan, Williams, Logue, Wilkie, Burgess, Wigg, Hore
M - Titch, Cripps, Oliver, Martin, Merret, Miles, Constable, Hind, Stocker, Valente, Bewley
R - Grundy, Gawn, Fort
F - Danger, Heeney, Dunkley, Setterfield, Corbett, Parker, Cavara, Mcadam

52K left

I wish we knew the rookies to get on, it would determine our final structure. If butters, bennell, walsh, collins all look likely this will make me tweak a few things - most likely drop a top end mid for a matt crouch or something. Or miles down to a rookie.
 

pizza safety

Well-known member
Joined
15 Oct 2018
Messages
250
Likes
387
AFL Club
Essendon
Love it sticking to your guns on Walsh. I like the logic, I don't have the cash atm. I don't think you can pick Lynch with any certainty until post JLT. Most are running him atm, self included, but Fyfe was apparently only running laps at training. (source ) Got much cash left over?
At this stage I'm running Walsh and defending him and all of this premeditative nonsense that's all hypothetical. He will still need to play well in the JLT. Just from the outset I think I will need to start him, especially if I'm only running 5 premiums deep in the middle.

Haha you're spot on I will probably go for Gray and Wingard at F3 & F4 rather than keep Lynch in the side if they are both playing the right role, but he's probably someone I will gamble on if they are not. He's definitely a risk but I see a big ceiling at the tigers for him and he is pretty cheap. Due to the fact that he is a bit of an injury risk and I don't particularly enjoy the rollercoaster of key forwards I will probably prefer the other two I mentioned. JLT could change all of that. Surely Port play Gray in the middle? Wines, SPP, Ebert and Rockliff is a brute of a midfield with no class, surely they want some class?

Without Lynch I will probably downgrade Macrae to Neale, I feel like Macrae is still fairly risky at that price given that he was slowed down a bit when tagged last year and more could come his way. Banfield kept him to 98, Hutchings to 74, Pendlebury gave him close attention at stoppages and kept him to about 100 and Melbourne tagged him in the 2nd half and kept him 10 disposals, whereas he had 23 in the first half of that game. He did smash Gibson in the wet though. He will be a top 5 mid imo but might not be worth the cost, on the other hand he could go to another level and I could be left behind.

Cheers for the Fyfe update, Fyfe is always injured and playing injured haha, I will still pick him due to my concerns about the other premo's around him. Oliver's double shoulder reconstruction, Kelly's groin surgery and tough draw to start the year and my belief that Cripps plays his best footy in the 2nd half of the year still make him the guy. Fyfe still scored very well last year whilst consistently playing with a niggling knee injury so I'm not really worried (that might be the knee he had a clean up on post season). I expect to use him for his points and to need to trade him out at some stage because of an injury. His ceiling is too big for me not to start him and get caught behind those who do.

I have 16k with Macrae and Lynch, 43k with Neale and Wingard.

Pure bias has me thinking Fantasia could be a decent pick in 2019 now he's playing a Cyril Rioli role but I'll refrain
 
Last edited:

freowho

Dual Best & Fairest
Joined
27 Jan 2014
Messages
3,464
Likes
586
AFL Club
Fremantle
Hey everyone, thought i'd share my current team. Besides Danger and Grundy no one else is officially locked away yet.

D - Whitfield, Ryan, Williams, Logue, Wilkie, Burgess, Wigg, Hore
M - Titch, Cripps, Oliver, Martin, Merret, Miles, Constable, Hind, Stocker, Valente, Bewley
R - Grundy, Gawn, Fort
F - Danger, Heeney, Dunkley, Setterfield, Corbett, Parker, Cavara, Mcadam

52K left

I wish we knew the rookies to get on, it would determine our final structure. If butters, bennell, walsh, collins all look likely this will make me tweak a few things - most likely drop a top end mid for a matt crouch or something. Or miles down to a rookie.
Despite the report about Bennell on new years eve the club decided not to take any action and I beleive he is doing all the training.




I will never give up on you Harley. Never. :rolleyes:
 

stephen

400 Games Club
Joined
20 May 2014
Messages
1,992
Likes
339
AFL Club
St Kilda
Despite the report about Bennell on new years eve the club decided not to take any action and I beleive he is doing all the training.




I will never give up on you Harley. Never. :rolleyes:
Despite everything, if Harley plays rd1 we simply have to pick him. The only exception is if you make some stand against him on this forum and then feel you have to honourably stick to your guns. I will not be making this mistake. Go Harley!
 
Top