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Bomber18

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Thanks for your thoughts, it's good to get a different opinion.

On Witherden, he's one of the best young defenders in the comp (check out his Footywire bio page), and should have ongoing natural progression. Would have averaged 87-88 without his injury game, which puts him within 8-9 points of the sixth best defender already. Should take kick ins as well, and is cheap.

On Westhoff, I think it depends how much other value he adds, outside of having a high average. Factors that boost this value include his durability (so he doesn't get replaced by a rookie a few times a year, like a Buddy type), his DPP early on (I can switch he and Xerri to cherry pick scores from Parker or Fort, in some cases having already seen both of their scores), his ongoing ruck cover potential (which also increases due to his durability - there's no cover if your cover also doesn't play) and the structural flexibility he provides in trading (assuming I get Setterfield back to the midfield, I can trade any player in my side to Mumford in round five if I wish, for example, or upgrade anyone to Gawn later on, say). The rough points value of these factors might be 60+40+120+whatever you value DPP trading flexibility at (I would say 100+). Some of those numbers could easily be higher. That's 10-15 points per game across the year. He is priced at 101, so if the test is that you don't want to pay more than he gets you back, then he'd need to score 86-91. I expect him to do that.

In terms of the injury risks, I agree that I'm taking some risks on this front, although there are some mitigating factors in some cases (Bennell and Setterfield have lower JS risk than alternate rookie priced players, eg), and in other cases I'm doing it to access higher scoring potential at a discounted price (basically all the other names). I've also picked quite durable players in Danger, Dusty, Merrett, Neale and Westhoff as a bit of an offset.

Out of interest, who are the more durable names you prefer?
Hmm after all that, the Hoff has made into my side as well! Hoff paired with Fort doesn’t look too bad.

Wonder how long it lasts.
 

Bermi

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To me, the Hoff is a bit of a 'set and forget', knowing that I have potentially all season a player that could save me a trade when a ruckman has a short term injury.
 

Bomber18

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To me, the Hoff is a bit of a 'set and forget', knowing that I have potentially all season a player that could save me a trade when a ruckman has a short term injury.
Yeah that’s the thing - probably overpaying by 70-100k, but he’s one I know I’ll end up with anyway.
 

NT.Thunder

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Is it just me or am I the only one who feels Hoff isn't just over but potentially 10-15 ppg overs? I can't see him being over an 85 average this year. Won't be top 6 forward and really don't think he'll scrape top 10.
 

Bermi

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Is it just me or am I the only one who feels Hoff isn't just over but potentially 10-15 ppg overs? I can't see him being over an 85 average this year. Won't be top 6 forward and really don't think he'll scrape top 10.
Yes, you may be right.
But with all the new AFL rules and the personal changes that PTA has made and the talk of PTA changing their way of playing (to speed up ball movement), well, I have no idea what SC pts Westhoff will score this year. Until I know for sure that he won't score well, he's still in my team.
 
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Is it just me or am I the only one who feels Hoff isn't just over but potentially 10-15 ppg overs? I can't see him being over an 85 average this year. Won't be top 6 forward and really don't think he'll scrape top 10.
I see it a bit this way. Last year was an outlier for him no doubt. This outlier year also happened to coincide with a massive spike in HO per game and injury to Ryder. I'd be very worried about his output this year with a fit Rider, Lycett drafted and fitness concerns over Dixon. If he's stuck forward with no Wines at the coalface, Sub 90 would not surprise me this year.
 

BigRuss

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Is it just me or am I the only one who feels Hoff isn't just over but potentially 10-15 ppg overs? I can't see him being over an 85 average this year. Won't be top 6 forward and really don't think he'll scrape top 10.
He historically sits somewhere between 85 - 95 pretty consistently. If the 2019 iteration has him closer to bottom end he’s probably not worth it, but the mid/high end puts him into top 10 forward territory while providing ruck cover.

More likely to need ruck cover mid/late season so I think it’s prudent to have a look at him before committing. Doesn’t really have those massive spike games that punish you either, generally 1 or 2 120+ a season. Just makes sense to wait and see from where I’m sitting.
 
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bomberboy

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Made some updates - would love some feedback.

Whitfield, Andrews, Williams, Collins, Quaynor, Burgess (Wilkie, Hore)
Cripps, Fyfe, Kelly, Neale, Dusty, Libba, Walsh, Valente (Bewley, Hind, Gibbons)
Grundy, Goldy (Sweet)
Danger, McDonald, Heeney, Moore, Setterfield, Burgess (McAdam, Cavarra)

17k left.
 

Athomas

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Made some updates - would love some feedback.

Whitfield, Andrews, Williams, Collins, Quaynor, Burgess (Wilkie, Hore)
Cripps, Fyfe, Kelly, Neale, Dusty, Libba, Walsh, Valente (Bewley, Hind, Gibbons)
Grundy, Goldy (Sweet)
Danger, McDonald, Heeney, Moore, Setterfield, Burgess (McAdam, Cavarra)

17k left.
You've got Burgess listed twice FYI.

Personally, I think the defence is too weak but have no real issue with the premiums selected (McDonald could be a good POD, not sure)

I'd switch Moore into defence, downgrade Libba to a mid rookie (any of Gibbons/Bewley on the field) and either upgrade Goldy or find another mid-pricer in the forward line perhaps?

Would rather start a mid rookie (Gibbons/Bewley) then D6 of Burgess/Wilkie/Hore etc, at least based on pre-JLT.
 
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Okay, this is the team of the rookiest rookie to ever rookie.
The only player I have ever heard of in all these lists is Dangerfield, and only because I bought a bottle of Gatorade with him on it recently and I thought he had a really cool sounding surname. So he's in my team for that reason and not because (as I have since found out) that he is awesome.

I am most worried about going so very cheap with my second ruckman. Hard to know who to downgrade in order to upgrade there though.
Thoughts appreciated.
 

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Okay, this is the team of the rookiest rookie to ever rookie.
The only player I have ever heard of in all these lists is Dangerfield, and only because I bought a bottle of Gatorade with him on it recently and I thought he had a really cool sounding surname. So he's in my team for that reason and not because (as I have since found out) that he is awesome.

I am most worried about going so very cheap with my second ruckman. Hard to know who to downgrade in order to upgrade there though.
Thoughts appreciated.
my advice would be to clear your team and start again :)

hahaha

actually for someone that allegedly knows nothing that is pretty damn good

Blakely in defence will need to go (injured) try Z Williams instead

downgrade Lloyd in defence to Burgess then upgrade Sweet to Goldstein/Westhoff

Quaynor & Scrimshaw may not play Round 1 but worry about that later.

Great effort Mr Pookus
 
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my advice would be to clear your team and start again :)

hahaha

actually for someone that allegedly knows nothing that is pretty damn good

Blakely in defence will need to go (injured) try Z Williams instead
It's weird to be building a team where the names don't connect to anything in my mind , just picking them off what posters here say about them and their confidence. Almost included Clayton Oliver just because one poster declared he was a beast so emphatically I couldnt help but be swayed :ROFLMAO:. This will be an interesting year.

I made that Blakely>Williams trade,
Also downgraded Macrae to Merrett in order to upgrade Sweet to Naismith, whom I put on field :cool:

Thanks for the help!
 
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It's weird to be building a team where the names don't connect to anything in my mind , just picking them off what posters here say about them and their confidence. Almost included Clayton Oliver just because one poster declared he was a beast so emphatically I couldnt help but be swayed :ROFLMAO:. This will be an interesting year.

I made that Blakely>Williams trade,
Also downgraded Macrae to Merrett in order to upgrade Sweet to Naismith, whom I put on field :cool:

Thanks for the help!
Welcome to my world of NRL and NFL.

There are some master coaches here , and a wealth of people able to offer advice , comments , suggestions , just need to wade through it all.

A wealth of information gets handed out (some argue it is too much) but looking at your side you probably have approx 20+ players that the majority are picking at this stage , as per most fantasy games though final teams and structure will depend on how many rookies are named and positioned where.

thought I said get Goldstein or Westhoff and you end up with Naismith , please delete him and try again.

Sometimes I think the less you know about a sport the better , so if you maintain your interest , I suspect you will finish Top 💯
 
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How much do you think the rookie loopholing might be worth? That has me considering him again. Avoiding a <40 from a rookie and getting an >80 can easily add up to 100 points quite quickly over the first 6-7 games.

I probably rate the DPP ruck cover boost a bit lower than you. I see it unlikely that we'll cop a ruck injury / resting early on in the season. If I trade the Hoff in around upgrade period (say R7-8) and pay around $480k, I can still gain that same likely boost of 5-10ppg or so from ruck cover but at a cheaper price. In any case if you essentially have Westhoff at R2 with no premium ruck at R2 you can't actually use him as cover for your R1 and are just relying on Fort for cover.

Agree with the DPP flexibility point though. Possibly a good strategic move to leave the option of trading Mumford in at R5.

EDIT: Although on further thought, if you just went Fort R2 with Bines R3, you could still retain that flexibility to grab Mumford come R5.

So all in all, his true bonus value to me is just from that rookie loopholing and negating the doomsday scenario of the Fort R2 strategy where Fort gets dropped early.
It sounds like you've decided to try Westhoff, so I'm assuming you've formed a view re the rookie looping. For what it's worth, my estimate from my prior post was just over the first four rounds, in case I trade in Mumford in round five.

In terms of it being unlikely that there's a resting early, I would agree with that, although I'm less sure of why injury risks would be greater later on?

I did a quick check of the top four rucks of recent years (as mentioned in a recent post elsewhere - Grundy, Gawn, Goldy and Martin). The numbers would very likely be worse if you included Ryder, Kreuzer, NicNat and others.

Last 3 seasons, total games missed and seasons with <22 games played
Grundy 3, 2
Gawn 9, 1
Goldy 4, 2
Stef 2, 1

So on average even the durable ones have missed 1.5 games each, and had a 50-50 chance of missing at least one. Grundy missed round one (admittedly you presumably wouldn't start him if that happened), Goldy missed round two (I'm pretty sure I traded him to Higgins last minute, it was a deeply frustrating experience), and Gawn missed round four onwards.

You're right in that Westhoff isn't providing me with cover early on, so that value really comes later in the season.
 

Tails

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It sounds like you've decided to try Westhoff, so I'm assuming you've formed a view re the rookie looping. For what it's worth, my estimate from my prior post was just over the first four rounds, in case I trade in Mumford in round five.

In terms of it being unlikely that there's a resting early, I would agree with that, although I'm less sure of why injury risks would be greater later on?

I did a quick check of the top four rucks of recent years (as mentioned in a recent post elsewhere - Grundy, Gawn, Goldy and Martin). The numbers would very likely be worse if you included Ryder, Kreuzer, NicNat and others.

Last 3 seasons, total games missed and seasons with <22 games played
Grundy 3, 2
Gawn 9, 1
Goldy 4, 2
Stef 2, 1

So on average even the durable ones have missed 1.5 games each, and had a 50-50 chance of missing at least one. Grundy missed round one (admittedly you presumably wouldn't start him if that happened), Goldy missed round two (I'm pretty sure I traded him to Higgins last minute, it was a deeply frustrating experience), and Gawn missed round four onwards.

You're right in that Westhoff isn't providing me with cover early on, so that value really comes later in the season.
Agree .. early ruck cover isn't as important as later round cover. Even if you have cover there is no guarantee that you can actually use it ...so I'm leaning towards cheap bench cover early on and will reassess as the season progresses...
 
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Just a few random thoughts on Westhoff...

The real value of Westhoff will ultimately depend on the level of utility you get to actualise. If we get a decent R3 such as Fort then Westhoff loses a fair chunk of that utility for say the first half of the year. (while still keeping the looping benefits between the pair)

The flexibility with trading is interesting, but I wouldn’t have that as a major driver.
Is the desire to potentially having Mumford and adequate cover a driver for selecting Westhoff? Assuming Fort doesn’t get up, Westhoff provides cover and will also likely have a high PIT value, but may be covering for someone that may potentially have a low PIT value (depending on how Mumford returns). That seems like any gains are just cancelling out the losses. Again, you may get to actualise real value in the 2nd half of the year once you upgrade Mumford (or covering your R1 during the full season) and other may need to use a trade either to bring Westhoff in/or trade rucks.
Thanks for your thoughts - I agree that Westhoff's additional value is variable. I suspect some people would discount it as a result, although expected points are still expected points in my view ... there's no guarantee that the players we choose deliver the points we anticipate, even directly. It does swing around based on factors like the other ruck options though, it's not just down to Westhoff's performance.

Regarding Mumford, he was in my starting side, with Westhoff forward (I like Westhoff as a standalone pick, but he also helped facilitate Mummy), until recently.

I obviously removed Mumford to make room for Hoff at R2, so the likelihood of me picking Mummy at some point is falling, but probably still better than 50-50. I think he's risky, but a good option as a stepping stone if fit, especially given I'm quite happy to have a "placeholder" R2 until I decide who I want to upgrade to (I used Lycett for this purpose last year, and like this setup again this year). So I would pick Westhoff regardless, for the reasons I mentioned, and would ideally pick Mumford independent of Westhoff also (the two round suspension being the issue with starting him) ... but I think they complement each other well.
 
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View attachment 6721

Here's mine as it sits at the moment fellas. Feels bloody vanilla but i dont mind that too much this time of year.

Cant really find a a second mid pricer im comfortable with, so Miles gets the chop. Alternatively if 2 or 3 pop up through JLT i dont mind cutting Kelly down to Miles and hopefully be able to redistribute enough to pull 2 more rookie scores off the field.

F4 is well and truly up for grabs , whoever looks to have the beneficial role likely gets the nod. I do like Dunkley though, ripping run home last year promises the world.

Byes are 4/4/6 for anyone playing along at home.

Cheers for any feedback lads.
Looks really good to me.

Part of it is probably that we share 11 premiums and 23 players in total, but I think it's nicely balanced. That probably reinforces the idea that it's a bit vanilla, but you could make two or three changes later in, when we have more information, and still have a very solid base that you'd be working from.

For what it's worth Kelly would be my first to trim (I'm just not sure how he will start the year, it sounds like he may get a number of tags early), and you may want to consider Moore to go with Miles ... handy DPP loop, cheap, and appears to be going well so far and taking kickins. No doubt more mid pricers will present though!

I was tossing up Wingard, Mclean, Dunkley and Gresham for F4 recently. I think there are arguments each way, but Dunkley's mid time seemed to really ramp up only when Mclean hurt his shoulder, so I'm not sure how to read that in terms of who has first dibs on the extra mid minutes, or whether there are enough to go around for both of them now. I think some may be assuming it's Dunkley's to lose, and that may still be the case, but I think there's more risk around that after being reminded of Mcleans injury.
 
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I see it a bit this way. Last year was an outlier for him no doubt. This outlier year also happened to coincide with a massive spike in HO per game and injury to Ryder. I'd be very worried about his output this year with a fit Rider, Lycett drafted and fitness concerns over Dixon. If he's stuck forward with no Wines at the coalface, Sub 90 would not surprise me this year.
I think quite a few people attribute Westhoff's better scoring last year to more hitouts (not suggesting you are necessarily in this camp), but as it turns out the numbers don't back that up.

Westhoff registered 10+ hitouts in 7 games last year, and not one of those was in his top 5 SC scores for the year.

He also hit new career highs in disposals, tackles, clearances and rebound 50s last year.
 

BigRuss

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Looks really good to me.

Part of it is probably that we share 11 premiums and 23 players in total, but I think it's nicely balanced. That probably reinforces the idea that it's a bit vanilla, but you could make two or three changes later in, when we have more information, and still have a very solid base that you'd be working from.

For what it's worth Kelly would be my first to trim (I'm just not sure how he will start the year, it sounds like he may get a number of tags early), and you may want to consider Moore to go with Miles ... handy DPP loop, cheap, and appears to be going well so far and taking kickins. No doubt more mid pricers will present though!

I was tossing up Wingard, Mclean, Dunkley and Gresham for F4 recently. I think there are arguments each way, but Dunkley's mid time seemed to really ramp up only when Mclean hurt his shoulder, so I'm not sure how to read that in terms of who has first dibs on the extra mid minutes, or whether there are enough to go around for both of them now. I think some may be assuming it's Dunkley's to lose, and that may still be the case, but I think there's more risk around that after being reminded of Mcleans injury.
Cheers for the feedback mate. If Kelly goes down to Miles there’s enough funds there to pop Moore in forward and Roberton down back, though I’m not overly comfortable with Roberton and Moore’s a wait and see.

The other route is Kelly to Miles, Zerrett to Macrae and Moore in which I think I prefer to the Roberton route.

Dunkley comes with risk and as I said I’m open to whichever F4 presents through the JLT. The four you mentioned Menegola and Worpel being at the head of the queue.
 
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Okay, this is the team of the rookiest rookie to ever rookie.
The only player I have ever heard of in all these lists is Dangerfield, and only because I bought a bottle of Gatorade with him on it recently and I thought he had a really cool sounding surname. So he's in my team for that reason and not because (as I have since found out) that he is awesome.

I am most worried about going so very cheap with my second ruckman. Hard to know who to downgrade in order to upgrade there though.
Thoughts appreciated.
That's actually quite a good side, especially if you get a better second ruck in there as Herbie suggested.

Have a look at this link for what you might think of as your premium shopping list:

https://supercoachscores.com/threads/pit-averages-durability-v-higher-ceiling-iii.3998/

If you worked off that, cross checked their scoring records/2018 averages for pricing on Footywire, and copied the popular rookies from this thread closer to lockout, I suspect you'd have a starting side better than a high proportion of coaches.
 
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