Round 15 Captain choices "No, Gary, No!"

Rd 15 skipper?

  • Ablett v Gee

    Votes: 17 39.5%
  • Pendes v Carl

    Votes: 1 2.3%
  • Swan v Carl

    Votes: 7 16.3%
  • Thompson v Port

    Votes: 1 2.3%
  • Mitchell v GWS

    Votes: 3 7.0%
  • Selwood v GC

    Votes: 9 20.9%
  • Pav v WB

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Watson v Saints (added)

    Votes: 3 7.0%
  • Other – please specify

    Votes: 2 4.7%

  • Total voters
    43
  • Poll closed .
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IDIG

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#1
Does lightning strike twice or does the son of a gun go huge against his old mob? Having only played the cats once with a 106 last year, i think it's the week to go for gold yet again.
 

Rowsus

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#2
He has, in his career "failed" in consecutive weeks before, but not often. GA for me.
 

Philzsay

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#3
First week in a while I'm considering to sway away from Ablett, with Watson, Selwood and Swan the main contenders.

But considering Ablett scored 188 just 2 weeks ago, and I'd hate to miss a monster score, I will probably chicken out and stay with Ablett.
 

Goodie's Guns

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#4
I will be going Ablett but where is Jobe Watson on the list?
 

Value Bets

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#6
I think I might be going swan or watson this week. I have got every Gary 50/50 wrong, copping all his low scores and missing his monsters.
 
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#7
I'm confident I'll pick the lowest scoring option between Selwood and Ablett.

I think I'll stick with Ablett as I don't think he'll get a close tag. Ideally he and Selwood will play on each other - just 50m apart at all times.
 
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#8
Gotta go with Gaz for me! Bit me last time, and I don't want that again. Sorry Jobe, going against you!
 

MovingUpward

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#9
Just to add to IDIG’s Poll and in light of my less than perfect track record this year in selecting Captain, I’ve done a little research this week in an effort to try and improve the odds my way that I thought I’d share for the collective benefit.

I (unfortunately) don’t have all these players by the way... Just thought I’d best include all those contained in the poll and a few others that might rank high in the thought processes of some Coaches this week. Scores are listed from the player’s latest game against the opposing teams to the earliest and averages are not total average against opposing team, but average over the 5 most recent games (or less as the case may be).


Gary Ablett Vs Geelong - Metricon - 106 - Avg: 106

Recent team form for both sides are polar opposite, with the Suns yet to register a win while the Cats have won 4 out of their last 5 matches, so a pretty comfortable win for the Cats you would have to think.

Averaging 121 from his past 5 games and that includes his below par scores of 64 and 87. 4 of 9 games Ablett has played this year he has scored 150 SC points or higher (2 of which were 180+ scores). After his last sub-100 score of 64, Ablett smashed out a lazy 188 against the Kangas, so the limited form guide we have suggests he could just break-out and smash another huge score this week at home where he has averaged 136.25 so far this year. His record at Metricon in 2012 includes his 2 scores of 180+ and his 64.

Gablett has only played against his old team once for a less than “Son of God” performance of 106, so there may well be some “nervous nellies” out there this week. But ignore the Perma-Captain at your peril. I for one relieved him of his official duties after his 64 a few rounds back and got burnt the following week and against a Geelong outfit who while scoring some wins, have not been overly convincing thus far, it would be a gutsy call to take the punt on another Captain’s choice this week. But no guts, no glory as the old motto goes (which is probably why I’m back of the pack and out of the running).

Scott Pendlebury Vs Carlton – MCG - 62, 145, 94, 139, 115 - Avg: 111

A stirring 60 point thrashing of the Pies by the Blues in Round 3 seem an age ago now. Before that game though the Pies have won the preceding 5 match-ups against the Blue Baggers. 1 vs 10 you’d have to think the Blues are going to struggle, but with the Blues playing for their season and potentially the Coach’s future, stranger things have happened.

Pendles looks like a certain starter this week and will no doubt be raring to go after missing 3 weeks and the bye with his leg injury. Averaging 122.6 from the five games before his lay-off (including injury affected 95), 5 of his 10 games of the year have been 130+ scores. There will no doubt be some relieved Coaches there in Supercoach Land this week who have resisted the urge to trade out their Pies star. But how will he fare his first week after injury? And how many are willing to give him the Captain’s armband so quickly? While his 62 in round 3 could be said to be an aberration, but Carazzo was able to stifle Pendles very well that game and will presumably be given the job again. A big call…

Dane Swan Vs Carlton - MCG - 109, 107, 108, 152, 113 - Avg: 117.8

Swanny has been in fine form in the last few weeks, averaging 131.8 in his past 5 games, with his 97 against the Cats in round 8 being injury affected. The Blues look to match-up reasonably well against the man addicted to ink, if 4 of their past 5 match-ups are any indication, so it could be seen as a bit of a risk, but with 4 of the 11 games he’s played this year being above 130 (and 2 160 and above), he’s well known for being able to come up with a mammoth total which if he’s Captain, can make or break a Coach’s weekend.

An average of 125.25 at the “G” in 2012 and the Blues’ last win coming in round 9, this week could just see something magical from the Swandog.

Scott Thompson Vs Port Adelaide – AAMI - 141, 70, 120, 125, 73 - Avg: 105.8

Adelaide has won their last 2 games against Port (including their round 5 match-up this year). Port won the 3 games before then, but Adelaide are definitely a different team this year, so they will be going into the game as warm favourites.

A lowly 58 in round 10 against the Dockers impacts on Scotty T’s average over the last 5 games which reads at 95.8. With only 4 of 13 games played this year seeing a score of 130 or higher, there might be some concern there as to whether he’s worth the risk against other more seemingly likely Captain’s this week. His last score against Port of 141 in round 5 was impressive though, as is his average at AAMI stadium in 2012 of 121.14. Will this be enough for some coaches to overlook his lack of a score over 130 since round 8 and his lowly average the past 5 weeks?

Joel Selwood Vs Gold Coast - Metricon - 145, 136 - Avg: 140.5

150 point winners when last they played at home, Geelong have won both games against GC last year and Jelwood has had a pretty good time of it on the 2 occasions they’ve met with an average of 140.5.

Last 5 games for Jelwood has seen a tidy return of 123.6 average SC points, close to his 124.8 for the season. A consistent performer with 5 of 12 games played this year scoring 140 SC points or higher. If you’ve got the Geelong Captain in your team, you’d have him under serious consideration this week I’m sure. The only question might be if Geelong would risk resting their star leader against the lowly Suns. But given they haven’t really been playing “that” well against lower ranked teams and the fact they are only one game out of challenging for a top 4 spot, suggests to me that they’ll be playing him. Although don’t come to me for a refund if you pick him and he doesn’t end up playing…

Matthew Pavlich Vs Western Bulldogs – Paterson Stadium – 101, 99, 126, 64, 92 - Avg: 96.4

13 v 14 this week and with 1 win in the last 5 for each team, the home ground advantage for the Dockers might be all that separates them at the end of the day.

As a coach who has enjoyed the highs of Pav over the past few years, he has been a little down this year in SC output terms with only one score above 130 for the year. His past 5 games have seen Pav average 107 which is a little higher than his season average of 98.8 but really nothing to instill any real confidence in a massive score forthcoming this week as far as Captain’s choice is concerned. His average when playing at home this year has been 103.29 and while I will be hoping he cranks out a huge score this week against the Doggies, nothing from the numbers I’ve looked at suggests the risk is worth having him Captain this week.

And a few other possibilities to add to the mix:

Jobe Watson Vs St. Kilda - Etihad - 136, 100, 106, 196, 126 - Avg: 132.8

Most betting agencies currently having the Bombers skipper as Brownlow Medal favorite and he has been on fire in recent weeks, averaging 132.4 over the past 5 rounds. With a lowest score of 108 over that period, 3 of last 4 weeks has seen him score 140 or more.

St. Kilda hasn’t beaten the Bombers since Round 8 of the 2009 season. Jobe has a healthy average against the Saints in their past 5 match-ups and even taking his mammoth 196 out of the equation from rd 20 – 2009 (I think that may be called a statistical anomaly – but I’ll let Rowsus correct me on that), his average is a respectable 117 over the other 4 most recent encounters. With Goddard on an imposed holiday for 2 weeks and Jobe in a rich vein of form, can the big fella pull out a big score for those willing to take a punt this week?

With a staggering 2012 average at Docklands of 136.2, there are much worst players you could be giving the nod to as Captain for this week…

JP Kennedy Vs Brisbane - SCG - 129, 132, 128, 107 - Avg: 124

The Swannie are unbeaten in their last 4 games against the Lions and are playing at home in Sydney this week. Brisbane have been able to string together 2 wins on the trot, but you’d have to think the Swans will come out comfortable winners at home.

With an average this year of 109.6 when playing at home and there being only 2 games where JP has scored over 130 during 2012, you’d have to think there are more consistent players out there to make Captain this week. But he does have a healthy average against the Lions and playing at home, he could well reward the faithful with a big score.

His past 5 games of the year have yielded an average 106 SC points. It’d be a brave coach in my books to entrust the Captaincy this week with JP, but then again my Captain choices have been rubbish this year, so what do I know?

Brett Deledio Vs Melbourne - MCG - 108, 95, 89, 90, 99 - Avg: 96.2

The Tiges have won their past 2 games against the Dees, including their round 3 match-up this year, but Melbourne have had recent success against Richmond. 11 v 16 and a must-win game for the boys from Richmond to keep in touch with the final 8. You would have to say the boys from Punt Road are on the way up, so that a win is within grasp.

The Demons have not been a SC paradise for Lids in recent years with an average of only 96.2 from the 5 most recent encounters. Not that such an average is terrible of course, but just when looking for Captain material in Supercoach land, it’s hardly the kind of record that gives you a sense of confidence in giving him the role against other hardened, proven performers.

Only one score below 100 for the year, beats even the “Great One” Ablett in that regard, but with an average of 108 in the past 5 matches and an average of 112.29 at the MCG this year, the prospects of Lids being an overwhelmingly popular pick as Captain this week look remote.

Buddy Franklin Vs Greater Western Sydney – N/A – Avg: N/A

Extremely doubtful the Hawks will risk him you’d think, but after reading the Herald Sun this morning suggesting he trained well yesterday he’d definitely be a tasty option against the GWS IF FULLY FIT… Averaging 134 over the past 5 rounds and 117.63 at the MCG in 2012 and with 5 scores over 130 for the year.

Even in the unlikely event he plays, he’d still be a risky proposition given prospect of re-injury or substitution.
 
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#10
Nice summary MovingUpward.

Have a look at the Cats contested possies & clearances stats for this season. Something tells me that l should stay with the little bald master.

Tempted to go Joel Selwood but afraid that he may be vested later in the game when the game is done & dusted.
 

MovingUpward

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#11
Very good points Felixes Felines... That red vest does tend to complicate things with Captain choices when teams are against lower placed teams and the win's in the bag...
 

Goodie's Guns

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#12
Great summary of the captain options for this week MovingUpward. I will be interesting to see how many coaches stick with Ablett.
 

WandP

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#14
Call me crazy, but i've half-locked in SJ for the big C this week.

3 of his 4 tons of the year have come against Melbourne, Western Bulldogs and GWS with scores of 169, 146 & 156 respectively.
 

IDIG

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#15
Very nice moving upward. Not sure how i missed jobe because he was definitely in my plan :( i think your summary has swayed me but im always conscious of clint jones. For me its out of jobe, joel n sammy n of course gaz.
 

IDIG

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#16
Very nice moving upward. Not sure how i missed jobe because he was definitely in my plan :( i think your summary has swayed me but im always conscious of clint jones. For me its out of jobe, joel n sammy n of course gaz.
Just.Can't.Do.It.

Ablett (c)
 

MovingUpward

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#17
Just.Can't.Do.It.

Ablett (c)
After all the research, I'm pretty sure Ablett will carry the armband for me this week as well. Could have probably saved myself the trouble really... :p
 

Philzsay

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#18
After all the research, I'm pretty sure Ablett will carry the armband for me this week as well. Could have probably saved myself the trouble really... :p
At least the research will have helped you choose a Vice Captain :)
 

IDIG

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#19
Ahh stuff it sammy mitchell vs gws at the g is money in the bank. 40 touches 9 marks 3 gosls for 140+







Please :eek:
 
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#20
Very nice report mate, Gary's wearing the big "C" at the moment but you've made me seriously consider Scott Thompson or Delidio.

Edit: Has anyone considered big Dean Cox, his last three game average is 128 and his projected is 123 against North this round?
 
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