Round 22: SCS League scores and betting

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Rowsus

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#1
Preliminary Final - After Thursday nights team selections

[table="width: 700, class: grid, align: center"]
[tr]
[td]SCS[/td]
[td]League[/td]
[td]Premiership[/td]
[td]2012[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]?[/td]
[td]2260[/td]
[td]$7.00[/td]
[td]1st[/td]
[td]Fourth Time Fluke[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Moo Moo's Maulers[/td]
[td]6th[/td]
[td]$1.10[/td]
[td]2378[/td]
[td]?[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]?[/td]
[td]2278[/td]
[td]$4.00[/td]
[td]3rd[/td]
[td]Value Bets[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Slim Pickings[/td]
[td]5th[/td]
[td]$1.25[/td]
[td]2384[/td]
[td]?[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]SCS[/td]
[td]League[/td]
[td]"Old Rusty"[/td]
[td]2012[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]?[/td]
[td]2367[/td]
[td]$1.60[/td]
[td]9th[/td]
[td]F2TE[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Jobi-Wan Kenobi[/td]
[td]10th[/td]
[td]$2.35[/td]
[td]2331[/td]
[td]?[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]?[/td]
[td]2384[/td]
[td]$1.27[/td]
[td]11th[/td]
[td]uR_TeaM[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Rowsus[/td]
[td]16th[/td]
[td]$3.80[/td]
[td]2254[/td]
[td]?[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

As usual, a number of assumptions have been made, and there probably will be a shift in the scores and odds by Friday game time.
 
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#2
Looking at that I may need to change my tips, will have to wait until Friday night for final teams.
 

OzRulesFootball

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#4
hhhhmmm many moons ago I tipped Value Bets or the Kenobi's to take this league out but I sense it is all about to come to an end... No Joel Selwood, Nick Riewoldt and Ryder leaves a bit of a hole in Value Bets best 22 going into prelim final. I think no more trades so this going to have to create a minor miracle to advance to the Grand Final. Good luck this weekend.
 

Impromptu

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#5
What?

You have Moo Moo (v Fluke) and Slim Pickings (v Value Bets) as favourite? Are you serious? I picked Moo Moo and Slim Pickings and was hoping for better odds.

I agree with your odds, but was hoping the fact that Fluke(1st) and Value(3rd) were favourite based on their pre-final ranking.
 

OzRulesFootball

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#6
What?

You have Moo Moo (v Fluke) and Slim Pickings (v Value Bets) as favourite? Are you serious? I picked Moo Moo and Slim Pickings and was hoping for better odds.

I agree with your odds, but was hoping the fact that Fluke(1st) and Value(3rd) were favourite based on their pre-final ranking.

Tight arse bookmaker our local stats man is... don't expect value odds on offer from him....lol
 

Impromptu

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#7
Tight arse bookmaker our local stats man is... don't expect value odds on offer from him....lol
Tell you what is funny is that I looked at Damoz's tipping thread and put my tips in before looking at Rowsus' odds thread.

Then I come to this thread and Rowsus puts Moo Moo and Slim Pickings as favourite.

Rowsus - I was thinking about going to another bookmaker, but seeing as you are the only one, I'm staying.LOL
 

Rowsus

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#8
What?

You have Moo Moo (v Fluke) and Slim Pickings (v Value Bets) as favourite? Are you serious? I picked Moo Moo and Slim Pickings and was hoping for better odds.

I agree with your odds, but was hoping the fact that Fluke(1st) and Value(3rd) were favourite based on their pre-final ranking.
No, RAMP looks at their teams, and projected scores, and automatically generates the odds. I know that a couple of the teams have trades left, so much like last week, when Jobi traded on the Friday, expect some dramatic changes to the odds when we see thier final starting teams.

Tight arse bookmaker our local stats man is... don't expect value odds on offer from him....lol
Awwww, come on. I set my market to around 106%, which is pretty competitive I think. Remember, if you back a horse on the TAB they have their market at 120%! (For those that don't know, a betting % is calculated by adding the money spent to back every possibility to return, not win, $100)

Tell you what is funny is that I looked at Damoz's tipping thread and put my tips in before looking at Rowsus' odds thread.

Then I come to this thread and Rowsus puts Moo Moo and Slim Pickings as favourite.

Rowsus - I was thinking about going to another bookmaker, but seeing as you are the only one, I'm staying.LOL
I looked at my competitors, and Sportsbet was only offering $1.05 on Moo Moo's, and $1.18 on Slim. I still have the best and most competitive prices on SuperCoach games. :)
 

Jobi-Wan Kenobi

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#9
hhhhmmm many moons ago I tipped Value Bets or the Kenobi's to take this league out but I sense it is all about to come to an end... No Joel Selwood, Nick Riewoldt and Ryder leaves a bit of a hole in Value Bets best 22 going into prelim final. I think no more trades so this going to have to create a minor miracle to advance to the Grand Final. Good luck this weekend.
I saw a post saying value bets had two left, even though I let you down, might still be some life in VB.I hope so anyway as I tipped them.
 

OzRulesFootball

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#10
Awwww, come on. I set my market to around 106%, which is pretty competitive I think. Remember, if you back a horse on the TAB they have their market at 120%!

lol.. sorry for the slur on your market setting.. I only added it up in my head soon after I already threw that comment out there... .. I looked at Slim pickings $1-25 v Value Bets $4 and realized the percentage chance of winning is 80% slimmers and 25% Value's so yeah.. 105% in total is a bookmarker we want to stay with.....lol

forgive me for my original comments... I 'll have 10 grand monopoly money on the slimmers
 

OzRulesFootball

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#11
I saw a post saying value bets had two left, even though I let you down, might still be some life in VB.I hope so anyway as I tipped them.
oh ****... did not realize that , hold that bet Rowsus.. I might be going the other side now...lol


Thanks for the update and hope all goes well for you in the Kenobi's in house season club review..
You might keep your job if you atleast take home the old rusty
 

Rowsus

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#12
My opponent in the "Old Rusty" Cup doesn't have Ablett, and is holding an advantage over me already with a higher projected score. I already have 1 donut due to Selwood being out, Ablett would make 2. I won last week with 2 donuts against none, but don't think I can do it again.
So I'm going left field with my (V) choice, just in case Gaz is out. I'm putting it on Goddard, and hoping there isn't a repeat of Jay's Dal Santo disaster of last week.
 
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#13
Rowsus will there be an update to the projected score and odds before lockout tonight??
 

Rowsus

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#14
Rowsus will there be an update to the projected score and odds before lockout tonight??
Unfortunatley, I can't do that. I can't be sure of what trades have been made, and what players benched or made Captain until the lockout comes.
 

MovingUpward

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#15
Cheers for the odds Rowsus... A close weekend all round by the looks of things.

Although I'm pretty sure just about every game I've gone in favoured to win, I've let the punters down. Just a warning...
 

Rowsus

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#17
Preliminary Final

[table="width: 700, class: grid, align: center"]
[tr]
[td]SCS[/td]
[td]League[/td]
[td]Premiership[/td]
[td]2012[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2347[/td]
[td]2260[/td]
[td]$7.00[/td]
[td]1st[/td]
[td]Fourth Time Fluke[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Moo Moo's Maulers[/td]
[td]6th[/td]
[td]$1.10[/td]
[td]2378[/td]
[td]2390[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2348[/td]
[td]2360[/td]
[td]$2.10[/td]
[td]3rd[/td]
[td]Value Bets[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Slim Pickings[/td]
[td]5th[/td]
[td]$1.72[/td]
[td]2369[/td]
[td]2384[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]SCS[/td]
[td]League[/td]
[td]"Old Rusty"[/td]
[td]2012[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2319[/td]
[td]2339[/td]
[td]$1.60[/td]
[td]9th[/td]
[td]F2TE[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Jobi-Wan Kenobi[/td]
[td]10th[/td]
[td]$2.35[/td]
[td]2327[/td]
[td]2462[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2274[/td]
[td]2378[/td]
[td]$1.35[/td]
[td]11th[/td]
[td]uR_TeaM[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Rowsus[/td]
[td]16th[/td]
[td]$3.25[/td]
[td]2254[/td]
[td]2384[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

POINTS OF INTEREST

Fourth Time Fluke V Moo Moo's Maulers
FTF has a donut in the FWD's due to Rioli/Riewoldt
Both have Ablett Captain
Only 8 POD's in this match up (7 for FTF) which means FTF's donut is even more important.

Value Bets V Slim Pickings
Slim has Beams as Captain. Value doesn't have Beams in his side.
Value has Ablett as Captain. Slim DOES have Ablett in his side.
They have 12/11 POD's. Difference due to Beams being a POD Captain.

F2TE V Jobi-Wan Kenobi
Both have Ablett as Captain.
Jobi traded Harvey in this week.
Jobi has Newman on the bench, playing Yarran and Lake in front of him.
Jobi has Tippett on the bench, playing Saad in front of him.

uR_TeaM V Rowsus
uR has HAYES as Captain, Rowsus doesn't have Hayes.
Rowsus has Ablett as Captain, uR doesn't have Ablett.

There as some notable differences between the RAMP predicted scores, and the SC Gold predicted scores.
RAMP has a smaller variation in it's range of predictions. Some of the SC Gold predictions look like a monkey pulled a number out of a hat.
Case in point: Chapman - RAMP predicts he will score 111, SC Gold predicts he will score 66!
 
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Maso

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#18
tipsturned out to be the favorites this week :)

but thats just took a hit with martin smashin watson !
 

Rowsus

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#19
Updated after Rich V Ess on Friday night

[table="width: 700, class: grid, align: center"]
[tr]
[td]SCS[/td]
[td]League[/td]
[td]Premiership[/td]
[td]2012[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2420[/td]
[td]2343[/td]
[td]$2.35[/td]
[td]1st[/td]
[td]Fourth Time Fluke[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Moo Moo's Maulers[/td]
[td]6th[/td]
[td]$1.60[/td]
[td]2358[/td]
[td]2360[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2309[/td]
[td]2323[/td]
[td]$2.70[/td]
[td]3rd[/td]
[td]Value Bets[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Slim Pickings[/td]
[td]5th[/td]
[td]$1.47[/td]
[td]2407[/td]
[td]2407[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]SCS[/td]
[td]League[/td]
[td]"Old Rusty"[/td]
[td]2012[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]Ladder[/td]
[td]Odds[/td]
[td]RAMP[/td]
[td]SC Gold[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2401[/td]
[td]2410[/td]
[td]$1.60[/td]
[td]9th[/td]
[td]F2TE[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Jobi-Wan Kenobi[/td]
[td]10th[/td]
[td]$2.35[/td]
[td]2340[/td]
[td]2478[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2338[/td]
[td]2443[/td]
[td]$1.16[/td]
[td]11th[/td]
[td]uR_TeaM[/td]
[td]V[/td]
[td]Rowsus[/td]
[td]16th[/td]
[td]$5.30[/td]
[td]2231[/td]
[td]2301[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Martins 137 to Watsons 73 has had a major effect on some of our matches.
 
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OzRulesFootball

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#20
Hey Rowsus,

Did Value Bets end up doing any trades this evening?

i.e. Is Riewoldt and Ryder still in his team during this round ?
 
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