Analysis SC Analysis - What would you like to see...?

[IDIG]

Wouldnt mind an article on how were supposed to spend 1.4 mil on rucks and still be able to afford to field a half decent team

I was coming in to post something similar 😂

Any data to support selecting the 2 most expensive ruckmen? I know there’s a lot of data not to pick them but just wondering if there’s any data to pick them? Did the ruck scoring landscape change last year or did those 2 guys just find another gear?

 

[IDIG]

Also if you have the data, I’d be interested to see some age profiling. Whether it be season number or age.

I’d be keen to know:
- which age group are least likely to drop off
- which age group are most likely to score at a similar rate
-which age group are most likely to breakout

 

[Darkie]

On the rucks, my plan would be to start 2019’s Scott Lycett - ie a capable, but not proven #1 ruck - at R2.

It worked well this year, and a few others who tried it saw it similarly. Then pick Gawn or Grundy, whoever you think is most likely to be a top ruck (at the moment I think you’d have to say Gawn).

There was an article suggesting that there could be quite a few ruck moves this year, with Lycett himself potentially creating a domino effect if he chooses to leave WC for more opportunity. If that ends up being the case, we could have a couple of viable R2 picks, meaning we also have backup in case a cheap ruck goes down before we’ve had time to generate any cash.

 

[Herbie66]

Wouldnt mind an article on how were supposed to spend 1.4 mil on rucks and still be able to afford to field a half decent team

may need to look at starting some of the following :-

Williams , Roberton
Crouch , Hanners , Libba , Scully
JJK , Greene , Daniher

and 16 Rookies

 

[Creeker]

may need to look at starting some of the following :-

Williams , Roberton
Crouch , Hanners , Libba , Scully
JJK , Greene , Daniher

and 16 Rookies

How about a T Lynch at a new home Rich / Coll. Would see the pill more often in the forward line.

 

[Herbie66]

How about a T Lynch at a new home Rich / Coll. Would see the pill more often in the forward line.

Yes he could also be a option , not as cheap as the other 3.

Fully expect him to be a Hawk

 

[Bomber18]

History probably suggests that one of Gawn or Grundy gets injured and then that would be the reason they don't back up. It is uncanny how Gawn got injured in 2017, Ryder/Kreuzer both injured in 2018. Iirc Goldy also had injury issues in 2016.

As it stands, I still want to just start both gawn and grundy, both arguably two of the better C options too

 

[Creeker]

History probably suggests that one of Gawn or Grundy gets injured and then that would be the reason they don't back up. It is uncanny how Gawn got injured in 2017, Ryder/Kreuzer both injured in 2018. Iirc Goldy also had injury issues in 2016.

As it stands, I still want to just start both gawn and grundy, both arguably two of the better C options too

I can almost bet that the AFL will fixture Melb and Coll to share the same bye next season just to make it a little more difficult for us to choose our rucks.

 

[stephen]

I'm interested in which players to target after they start well and which to avoid, and also the opposite (which players who started slowly should be jumped on and which will stay low).

I suspect it's a bit all over the shop and this is where you just have to trust your eyes, but I'd be interested if the stats pointed to anything useful.

I guess that would look something like a list of the players whose first 6 games were a +10 improvement on previous average (and are now in premo range) and then what they scored for the remainder of season, and see if there was any commonality in the ones who kept their improvement throughout the season. One obvious one I think is that rucks who start well can generally be trusted, but that's just a hunch I've been backing for the last few years and haven't properly interrogated.

I know you've done a heap of work in this area already and probably will keep doing so, but just thought I'd put in my vote for more. Awesome service - thanks Thanh!

 

[Zoku Pops]

All these suggestions have been great, love the preseason of supercoach!

It's already been mentioned but an analysis of the most expensive players from 2018 and whether, using historical data, they can back it up. There's going to be a number of really expensive players next year and it will be tough to determine which ones to get.

 

[KLo30]

Wouldnt mind an article on how were supposed to spend 1.4 mil on rucks and still be able to afford to field a half decent team

Already written ......... you just go in with a 10-1-19 team!

Find the breakout players

Big price to pay on defying history on top 2 Rucks repeating!

 

[Nathan]

Wouldnt mind an article on how were supposed to spend 1.4 mil on rucks and still be able to afford to field a half decent team

Money saved on Doch & Williams goes towards Gawn & Grundy.

 

[KLo30]

All these suggestions have been great, love the preseason of supercoach!

It's already been mentioned but an analysis of the most expensive players from 2018 and whether, using historical data, they can back it up. There's going to be a number of really expensive players next year and it will be tough to determine which ones to get.

Needs an update, but there is certainly trends.
https://supercoachscores.com/thread...sing-last-year-s-points-to-predict-the-future

 

[Nathan]

Big price to pay on defying history on top 2 Rucks repeating!

It wasn’t even close..

Not saying you have to lock both in but I can’t see any others in the right age/development/opportunity bracket (Nicnat aside) that can make the jump.

Collingwood getting Lynch would make me nervous about Grundy’s price.

 

[Herbie66]

How about a T Lynch at a new home Rich / Coll. Would see the pill more often in the forward line.

Lynch will be approximately $ 436,000.00

 

[Herbie66]

Ideally I would like a 30-40 increase to a player's average to be a breakout player, but if a DEF, or a FWD, is priced under 90 at the start of the year and ends up averaging over 90, then I think that is a win.

Milera is a possibility, worth time doing a bit of research on him.

No, not Motlop for me, he is too inconsistent for my liking.

Milera will be approximately $ 443,000.00 for 2019

 

[blue dreamer]

It wasn’t even close..

Not saying you have to lock both in but I can’t see any others in the right age/development/opportunity bracket (Nicnat aside) that can make the jump.

Collingwood getting Lynch would make me nervous about Grundy’s price.

Would that be more likely to affect the American pie?

 

[Nathan]

Would that be more likely to affect the American pie?

Yes, but I think they would find a way to keep him in the team.

 

[nath_99]

I'm not sure either Langford of Parish will be the typical break-out player for ESS. Both are reasonable players, Parish, more so. I've never been a huge fan of Langford, primarily because he struggles to get the 'hard ball'. I like the look of James Stewart and Shaun McKernan though.

I am more likely to think that Francis/Clarke/McGrath will be our ones with Hurls, Smith and Zerrett (and Sheil/Crouch.. if trade talks are to be believed) the top 3 SC picks to choose from IMO.

Hope this helps..

 

[kakarot]

Keen to see the players who had a significantly better second half to the season than the first.

In 2017 we had Sicily for example. This year Dunkley and Brayshaw spring to mind.