Analysis SC Analysis - What would you like to see...?

[THCLT]

Many long time observers would vouch that there's no such thing as an 'off-season' for people like myself. Over the years, I've endeavoured to crystalized some of my thoughts, ideas, strategy, etc. into topical analysis piece to share with the community to fill some of the void during the SC break. Through those articles, you should get an appreciation of the kind of analysis which are possible with the data I have at my disposal. Some of those may be useful to the broader community whilst others may be just that, to fill a void.

With that in mind, I hope to use the 'limited' time I have available to geared these type of analysis piece specific to the needs of those who takes an interest. As such, I'm opening up this thread to take suggestions on what you would like to see from an SC analysis point of view. I'll take note of every reasonable requests put forth, however, I cannot guarantee that I will either have the necessary data and/or time to fulfil them all.

So if you have a suggestion or idea, feel free to post them below. I'll keep this thread open until the 31st December 2018.

 

[Bermi]

Thanks THCLT, I really appreciate that!

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Hi Thanh. I would be interested in the following:

1. an historical analysis outlining indicators for potential breakout candidates and then apply this to a list of potential candidates for 2019
2. List of relevant players pre & post Bye averages (and # 100+). Possibly overlay this with a “strength of Draw” analysis and then project for 2019 (once the draw is known).
3. There have been quite a few Analysis pieces prepared on this site over the past few years by the likes of Rowsus, Klo, yourself and probably few others). I always find these really interesting, so refresh of any of these Analysis would be great.

Thanks

 

[Bermi]

Currently I'm thinking of who may be the next Breakout Players next year. Can you suggest some?

 

[Bomber18]

Hi Thanh. I would be interested in the following:

1. an historical analysis outlining indicators for potential breakout candidates and then apply this to a list of potential candidates for 2019
2. List of relevant players pre & post Bye averages (and # 100+). Possibly overlay this with a “strength of Draw” analysis and then project for 2019 (once the draw is known).
3. There have been quite a few Anaysis pieces prepared on this site over the past few years by the likes of Rossi’s, Klo, yourself and probably few others). I always find these really interesting, so refresh of any of these Analysis would be great.

Thanks

+1 on the breakout analysis. Might be good to do an update on the Rowsus article from a few years back on how breakout candidates (ie: those who went +20ppg on their previous years) fared post their breakout year. Only a small number can back it up, I think Oliver did it this season. Crouch failed and Kelly technically failed too.

 

[THCLT]

Currently I'm thinking of who may be the next Breakout Players next year. Can you suggest some?

I'll see what I can conjure up, but to be honest, I don't generally put too much emphasis on 'trying' to pick these Breakout Players for the following reason: There are just too many factors which contribute towards such a player and the success rate is so low that it's probably not worth the while.

History would suggests that these players generally follows a typical mould, that is, age, games played, etc. However, I would rather focus my energy on identifying players with a defined role change, those who would benefit from departure/arrival of other players to their team or players who we know are playing out of position. For example, defender/forward types who have significant rotation through the midfield.

There's probably more success to be had with this approach rather than trying to predict the next batch of Breakout contenders.

In saying that, I'll run some analysis and see whether there's anything worthwhile to put up for discussion/debate.

 

[THCLT]

Some homework on Breakout Players...

https://supercoachscores.com/threads/can-statistics-find-the-next-breakout-player.1127/

 

[THCLT]

Below is an excellent quote from Rowsus prior to the 2014 season...

Breakout players occur when rise in ability meets consistent opportunity on the playing field.
Improvement comes with experience, and added fitness from 2nd, 3rd or 4th preseason preparations. Opportunity comes from other players retiring, getting injured, getting suspended or getting too slow and moving out of the Mids.
Sometimes an improvement in scores near the end of a season, as well as disproportionally high scores for their higher scores for the season, might point to an improvement on the way next season. It's no guarantee, but I know there are some Coaches who go down that road.

 

[THCLT]

by the likes of Rossi’s

 

[Herbie66]

Currently I'm thinking of who may be the next Breakout Players next year. Can you suggest some?

If Shiel leaves Hopper or Taranto

Langford/Parish at the Bombers

Scottish suitcase at the Lions

would think one of the Sun's young minds would step up

not sure how much higher Andrews , Short & Witherden can go in defence.

probably need that 3rd/4th year player who is ready to play 75% + in the mids

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Damn autocorrect ? Should say Rowsus ?

 

[Bermi]

I'll see what I can conjure up, but to be honest, I don't generally put too much emphasis on 'trying' to pick these Breakout Players for the following reason: There are just too many factors which contribute towards such a player and the success rate is so low that it's probably not worth the while.

History would suggests that these players generally follows a typical mould, that is, age, games played, etc. However, I would rather focus my energy on identifying players with a defined role change, those who would benefit from departure/arrival of other players to their team or players who we know are playing out of position. For example, defender/forward types who have significant rotation through the midfield.

There's probably more success to be had with this approach rather than trying to predict the next batch of Breakout contenders.

In saying that, I'll run some analysis and see whether there's anything worthwhile to put up for discussion/debate.

Thanks THCLT, that's good advice.

 

[Bermi]

If Shiel leaves Hopper or Taranto

Langford/Parish at the Bombers

Scottish suitcase at the Lions

would think one of the Sun's young minds would step up

not sure how much higher Andrews , Short & Witherden can go in defence.

probably need that 3rd/4th year player who is ready to play 75% + in the mids

In Websters first 10 games, he scored over 100pts 7 times. Then got injured, then didn't reach those heights again. At first, I was thinking this guy is a breakout player, then he was disappointing. I'm curious what caused him to not score high again? Injury? Role change???

Caleb had a spike at the end of the season and I read that he had a role change, playing half back. I'm wondering, IF he keeps playing back, will he be a breakout player??

 

[Prochard]

I usually don't even think about breakout players much.

I'm a very stubborn person, if others can convince me of a breakout pick I hadn't previously considered, he/she must have quite a decent argument.

 

[Herbie66]

In Websters first 10 games, he scored over 100pts 7 times. Then got injured, then didn't reach those heights again. At first, I was thinking this guy is a breakout player, then he was disappointing. I'm curious what caused him to not score high again? Injury? Role change???

Caleb had a spike at the end of the season and I read that he had a role change, playing half back. I'm wondering, IF he keeps playing back, will he be a breakout player??

Don't know enough about the Saints to answer the Webster one , will their setup change again if Roberton is back ?

Yes recall reading that Daniel played HBF , 3 x 100's in his last 4 games , priced at approx $ 428k you would need to be confident that he can maintain that scoring and be a Top 10 player.

When you mean breakout are you looking at someone going 90-100 + for the first time or someone who could improve their Ave by 30-40 but not necessarily be Top 10 in their position.

Milena could be one , certainly had a role change but does he stay HBF next season with Smith fully fit ?

Motlop was also trialled in defence for Port later in the season , but they have a multitude of HBF plus Broadbent & Bartlett to return.

 

[Bermi]

Don't know enough about the Saints to answer the Webster one , will their setup change again if Roberton is back ?

Yes recall reading that Daniel played HBF , 3 x 100's in his last 4 games , priced at approx $ 428k you would need to be confident that he can maintain that scoring and be a Top 10 player.

When you mean breakout are you looking at someone going 90-100 + for the first time or someone who could improve their Ave by 30-40 but not necessarily be Top 10 in their position.

Milena could be one , certainly had a role change but does he stay HBF next season with Smith fully fit ?

Motlop was also trialled in defence for Port later in the season , but they have a multitude of HBF plus Broadbent & Bartlett to return.

Ideally I would like a 30-40 increase to a player's average to be a breakout player, but if a DEF, or a FWD, is priced under 90 at the start of the year and ends up averaging over 90, then I think that is a win.

Milera is a possibility, worth time doing a bit of research on him.

No, not Motlop for me, he is too inconsistent for my liking.

 

[Herbie66]

Ideally I would like a 30-40 increase to a player's average to be a breakout player, but if a DEF, or a FWD, is priced under 90 at the start of the year and ends up averaging over 90, then I think that is a win.

Milera is a possibility, worth time doing a bit of research on him.

No, not Motlop for me, he is too inconsistent for my liking.

good luck with it all , Milera is certainly worth researching , Francis is another possibility.

I have a few F/M from this season that I am keen on if they maintain their F status , just hope I jump on the right one.

I went 6 deep in my F line to start this season though so won't be making that mistake again.

May just keep it simple for 2019 and jump on the breakouts when they appear.

 

[BigRuss]

Wouldnt mind an article on how were supposed to spend 1.4 mil on rucks and still be able to afford to field a half decent team

 

[Rowsus]

Wouldnt mind an article on how were supposed to spend 1.4 mil on rucks and still be able to afford to field a half decent team

Already written ......... you just go in with a 10-1-19 team!

 

[Bermi]

Wouldnt mind an article on how were supposed to spend 1.4 mil on rucks and still be able to afford to field a half decent team

Find the breakout players