Discussion SCS PC|02: Week IX - doc ron [1-1830], GM [Diabolical jiimmyy KLo30 THCLT Ironhawk Professor]

Darkie

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IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

@Rowsus has returned turning $24 into $100.42, fantastic work Rows!

Under normal guidelines, he needed to exceed $120 in order to have another go. However, due to there being a dead heat in one of the legs, I'm making an executive decision to alter that $120 rule slightly in his favour and hopefully also in our PC's favour.

Unless I get objection from the group, I'm going to adjust that figure down by half to $60 (due to the dead heat) so we're going to bank $60.42 and give Rows another $40 to go around again.

@Rowsus

It's up to you whether you want to bet the $40 for this current week (while you're in the grove) or wait until next week. Just let me know what you plan to do as I'm easy either way.
I’m all for it - well done @Rowsus, and happy to back your captain’s call @THCLT.
 

Rowsus

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IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT

@Rowsus has returned turning $24 into $100.42, fantastic work Rows!

Under normal guidelines, he needed to exceed $120 in order to have another go. However, due to there being a dead heat in one of the legs, I'm making an executive decision to alter that $120 rule slightly in his favour and hopefully also in our PC's favour.

Unless I get objection from the group, I'm going to adjust that figure down by half to $60 (due to the dead heat) so we're going to bank $60.42 and give Rows another $40 to go around again.

@Rowsus

It's up to you whether you want to bet the $40 for this current week (while you're in the grove) or wait until next week. Just let me know what you plan to do as I'm easy either way.
I like it. Thanks, @THCLT.
I must admit, I tried to target a bet, that would give me the full $80 to play with, so I'm more than happy to have another crack with $40.
My goal will be the same. Try and turn it into $200+, so I can play with another $80 next time.
I'll probably find something at Flemington on Saturday.
 

Tails

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I like it. Thanks, @THCLT.
I must admit, I tried to target a bet, that would give me the full $80 to play with, so I'm more than happy to have another crack with $40.
My goal will be the same. Try and turn it into $200+, so I can play with another $80 next time.
I'll probably find something at Flemington on Saturday.
I must admit that I still thought you had $80 to plsy with ,,, not so as it appears so good luck with your next set of bets ...
 

Tails

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Not sure I understand what "fixed odds" betting is anymore ... just saying ....

Ie if I bet on say on the NBA and multiple players drop out the odds don't change from the initial "fixed odds" bet I placed ...

I could have bet on players rebounds, points scored etc ... any player out would affect the odds you'd say ...

Why is horse racing any different ?? or does the same happen in other sports ??

Edit: account now closed with BetEasy...
 
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Rowsus

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Not sure I understand what "fixed odds" betting is anymore ... just saying ....

Ie if I bet on say on the NBA and multiple players drop out the odds don't change from the initial "fixed odds" bet I placed ...

I could have bet on players rebounds, points scored etc ... any player out would affect the odds you'd say ...

Why is horse racing any different ?? or does the same happen in other sports ??

Edit: account now closed with BetEasy...
You're not quite comparing apples with apples.

When you bet on the NBA, say Joe Smith to score 20.5+, and then Ben Jones and Frank Furter pull out of the game, you still get your odds, as even if Jones and Furter are the teams leading scorers, you can't quantify what affect that has on Smith scoring 20.5+ or not.

Now lets' look at an exaggerated example in racing. A 3 horse race. The actual formula used can be complicated, but lets look at a simple example.
In this 3 horse race Anders is $2, Beaker is $3, and Chaser is $3.5.
The betting has been solid, and at the barrier, Anders plays up, knocks his head, and has been scratched.
Bookie Ben Dover had made a beautiful Bookmakers book. In total he had laid bets totalling:
Anders $10,500 - pay out $21,000 if Anders wins
Beaker $7,000 - pay out $21,000 if Beaker wins
Chaser $6,000 - pay out $21,000 if Chaser wins
This sort of "balanced book" is what Bookies aim for, but realistically never achieve.

Now, Anders has been scratched at the Barrier, and now there are only 3 possible results. Beaker wins, Chaser wins, or a dead heat.
As you can see, this is different to your NBA bet, as the players dropping out haven't affected the number of possible outcomes on your Joe Smith line bet. He still either gets his line, or misses it.

With Anders scratched, the Bookie has to refund the $10,500 bet on him, and when Beaker wins the race, if there were no deductions, he also needs to pay out $21,000 to the punters who backed the winner. He pays out $31,500 in total, after taking $23,500, and loses $8,000. This is totally unreasonable. The conditions of the bet have changed, and the number of possible outcomes has been affected significantly. Note the difference. Racing bet, number of possible outcomes altered. NBA bet number of outcomes unaltered, but chances of success greatly altered. The Bookies will in all likelihood drop the price on Smith going 20+, or conversely, push the line out to something like 30+. They have no recourse to alter or amend the bets already placed.

What happens is, after the race the Bookmaker's Supervisor determines all bets on the winner, placed BEFORE the scratching will receive a deduction. Anders represented 10,500 of the total 23,500 market, or 44% of the market. The deduction on bets placed on the winner are paid less $0.44 in the dollar.

Let's see how that affects Ben Dover's book.
Total held $23,500
Refunded $10,500
Winner paid $21,000 x 0.56 = $11,760
Ben Dover wins $23,500 - $10,500 - $11,760 = $1,240.
Before the scratching of Anders, Ben Dover with his perfect book, was guaranteed of winning $2,500.

It's a perfectly reasonable approach, and different to a line bet situation.
 

Tails

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You're not quite comparing apples with apples.

When you bet on the NBA, say Joe Smith to score 20.5+, and then Ben Jones and Frank Furter pull out of the game, you still get your odds, as even if Jones and Furter are the teams leading scorers, you can't quantify what affect that has on Smith scoring 20.5+ or not.

Now lets' look at an exaggerated example in racing. A 3 horse race. The actual formula used can be complicated, but lets look at a simple example.
In this 3 horse race Anders is $2, Beaker is $3, and Chaser is $3.5.
The betting has been solid, and at the barrier, Anders plays up, knocks his head, and has been scratched.
Bookie Ben Dover had made a beautiful Bookmakers book. In total he had laid bets totalling:
Anders $10,500 - pay out $21,000 if Anders wins
Beaker $7,000 - pay out $21,000 if Beaker wins
Chaser $6,000 - pay out $21,000 if Chaser wins
This sort of "balanced book" is what Bookies aim for, but realistically never achieve.

Now, Anders has been scratched at the Barrier, and now there are only 3 possible results. Beaker wins, Chaser wins, or a dead heat.
As you can see, this is different to your NBA bet, as the players dropping out haven't affected the number of possible outcomes on your Joe Smith line bet. He still either gets his line, or misses it.

With Anders scratched, the Bookie has to refund the $10,500 bet on him, and when Beaker wins the race, if there were no deductions, he also needs to pay out $21,000 to the punters who backed the winner. He pays out $31,500 in total, after taking $23,500, and loses $8,000. This is totally unreasonable. The conditions of the bet have changed, and the number of possible outcomes has been affected significantly. Note the difference. Racing bet, number of possible outcomes altered. NBA bet number of outcomes unaltered, but chances of success greatly altered.

What happens is, after the race the Bookmaker's Supervisor determines all bets on the winner, placed BEFORE the scratching will receive a deduction. Anders represented 10,500 of the total 23,500 market, or 44% of the market. The deduction on bets placed on the winner are paid less $0.44 in the dollar.

Let's see how that affects Ben Dover's book.
Total held $23,500
Refunded $10,500
Winner paid $21,000 x 0.56 = $11,760
Ben Dover wins $23,500 - $10,500 - $11,760 = $1,240.
Before the scratching of Anders, Ben Dover with his perfect book, was guaranteed of winning $2,500.

It's a perfectly reasonable approach, and different to a line bet situation.
Wow .. awesome response and I now better understand the inner workings of how it works !!

- Always appreciate learning new things .....
- Still amused that Fixed Odds aint necessarily Fixed Odds .... misleading advertising to me !!

I've never really been a betting person which I outlined at the start so if something doesn't "quite" look right then I have no real interest in it ....

Not going to give up on the PC but now can't place any "personal" bets which is fine by me ... unless I see a promo that tempts me again !!
 
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Rowsus

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Let's get this started early.
Flemington Saturday:
Race 4 - 4 Royal Music $23/$6 - 3-2-0-0 at 2000m, and getting to that distance 3rd up. 2-1-0-1 3rd up.
Race 9 - Rox The Castle $10/$3 - 6-4-2-0 at 1400m, and 3-2-1-0 2nd up.
Neither will throw all their toys out of the pram, if there is a little rain. Not like last week! :rolleyes:

$15 on the all up place @ $18 - return $270
$5 on the all up win @ $230 - return $1,150.
 

THCLT

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PC|02 WEEK VII Rowsus
$20 Remaining

No surprise that @Rowsus has decided to take his $40 to the Flemington race track later this week and he already has his eyes on a couple of likely prospects.

Flemington R4 - 4 Royal Music
Flemington R9 - 3 Rox The Castle


BET 2
$15 All Up Place Multi

R2.jpg
BET 3
$5 All Up Win Multi

R3.jpg
 

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After thoroughly enjoying providing my suggestions for the PDC World Championship, I thought I’d turn my attention to arguably the 2nd biggest tournament- PDC Unibet Premier League

Night 1/Week 1 (Friday 7th of Feb at 6:00am AEDT):
Peter Wright to defeat Michael Van Gerwen ($3.00)
John Henderson Most 180’s VS Nathan Aspinall ($2.60)
Gerwyn Price Most 180’s VS Rob Cross ($2.28)
Correct Score- Gary Anderson 7 VS Darryl Gurney 4 ($5.50)
Glen Durrant Highest Checkout over 110.5 VS Michael Smith ($2.17)

The above placed in a multi pays $212.25 per $1.

If the Gary Anderson leg was replaced with Gary Anderson winning ($1.98) it drops to $76.41 per $1.
Night 2/ Week 2 (Friday 14th of Feb at 6:00am AEDT):
Tie- Rob Cross VS Nathan Aspinall ($3.75)
Gerwyn Price to defeat Michael Smith ($1.87)
Gary Anderson VS Peter Wright over 11.5 Legs ($1.98)
Fallon Sherrock Most 180’s VS Glen Durrant ($3.15)
Darryl Gurney to defeat Michael Van Gerwen ($5.50)

The above placed in a multi pays $240.55 per $1.
 
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Night 2/ Week 2 (Friday 14th of Feb at 6:00am AEDT):
Tie- Rob Cross VS Nathan Aspinall ($3.75)
Gerwyn Price to defeat Michael Smith ($1.87)
Gary Anderson VS Peter Wright over 11.5 Legs ($1.98)
Fallon Sherrock Most 180’s VS Glen Durrant ($3.15)
Darryl Gurney to defeat Michael Van Gerwen ($5.50)

The above placed in a multi pays $240.55 per $1.
@THCLT This ^ Lets do it! 👍
 
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