Discussion SCS PC|04 Week VI - Professor & THCLT, GM [jiimmyy, 7/11, KLo30, Rowsus, IDIG & Tails]

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Bet 6, 7 and 8 all dead.

Lots of horse racing bets tomorrow, hopefully some luck there, if not there's still golf and maybe tennis to go, along with cheering for an unlikely draw in the footy - better than cheering for either team in that match!
 
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Could have been our multi. 😁

One TAB punter will be hoping that tonight’s French Open men’s singles final between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal is a lengthy match with potentially one or two tie-break sets as they are on the verge of a $113,284 collect from a $100 multi.

Late yesterday afternoon, the TAB customer in question placed a $100 10-leg multi which included seven races (one yesterday and six today) along with last night’s semi-finals in the AFL and NRL.

The final leg in this multi requires at least 41 games to be played between Djokovic and Nadal in this evening’s decider for the 2020 French Open men’s singles championship.

The selections in the TAB punter’s $100 10-leg multi are:

Pale King to win Race 7 at Kembla Grange yesterday $2.15Geelong to defeat Collingwood $1.62

AFL Semi-Final – Geelong won by 68 points

Souths win vs Parramatta/Over 44.5 Points to be scored $2.25

NRL Semi-Final – Souths won 38-24; 62 points scored

Glamour Fox to win Race 2 at Hawkesbury today $1.95Excelman to win Race 3 at Cranbourne today $2.016 *Scottish Dancer to win Race 5 at Cranbourne today $2.352 *Belluci Babe to win Race 5 at Hawkesbury today $2.10Ancestry to win Race 6 at Cranbourne today $2.35 *So Far Away to win Race 7 at Hawkesbury today $1.76 *Over 40.5 Games to be played between Djokovic and Nadal $1.80

2020 French Open Men’s Singles Final starts midnight AEDT

* indicates that price has been adjusted due to scratchings after multi was placed

“The TAB punter who placed this multi is not concerned over the eventual winner of this year’s French Open men’s singles title as long as the final is a slugfest that potentially requires a fifth set,” TAB’s Trent Langskaill said.

12-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal is the $1.70 favourite at TAB while Novak Djokovic is a $2.15 chance to win his second title at Roland Garros when the men’s singles final commences at midnight AEDT.
 
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Could have been our multi. 😁

One TAB punter will be hoping that tonight’s French Open men’s singles final between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal is a lengthy match with potentially one or two tie-break sets as they are on the verge of a $113,284 collect from a $100 multi.

Late yesterday afternoon, the TAB customer in question placed a $100 10-leg multi which included seven races (one yesterday and six today) along with last night’s semi-finals in the AFL and NRL.

The final leg in this multi requires at least 41 games to be played between Djokovic and Nadal in this evening’s decider for the 2020 French Open men’s singles championship.

The selections in the TAB punter’s $100 10-leg multi are:

Pale King to win Race 7 at Kembla Grange yesterday $2.15Geelong to defeat Collingwood $1.62

AFL Semi-Final – Geelong won by 68 points

Souths win vs Parramatta/Over 44.5 Points to be scored $2.25

NRL Semi-Final – Souths won 38-24; 62 points scored

Glamour Fox to win Race 2 at Hawkesbury today $1.95Excelman to win Race 3 at Cranbourne today $2.016 *Scottish Dancer to win Race 5 at Cranbourne today $2.352 *Belluci Babe to win Race 5 at Hawkesbury today $2.10Ancestry to win Race 6 at Cranbourne today $2.35 *So Far Away to win Race 7 at Hawkesbury today $1.76 *Over 40.5 Games to be played between Djokovic and Nadal $1.80

2020 French Open Men’s Singles Final starts midnight AEDT

* indicates that price has been adjusted due to scratchings after multi was placed

“The TAB punter who placed this multi is not concerned over the eventual winner of this year’s French Open men’s singles title as long as the final is a slugfest that potentially requires a fifth set,” TAB’s Trent Langskaill said.

12-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal is the $1.70 favourite at TAB while Novak Djokovic is a $2.15 chance to win his second title at Roland Garros when the men’s singles final commences at midnight AEDT.
Prefer this one.

 

Rowsus

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Not sure how much truth is in a lot of these Sportsbet "punter wins big" stories.
There was one during the week about a punter that "made a mistake" putting on a box Quinella at Newcastle races last Saturday.
He boxed up 5 roughies (10 combinations), and meant to put it on for $60 per combination, and spend $600, but accidently added a "0", and did it for $600 per combination, and spent $6,000. The Quinella got up, and paid $1,036 for $1 on the NSW tote.
The story claimed the punters "mistake" had given him a collect of $621,000 instead of $62,100 and the punter never realised, until he checked his balance after the race.

Why do I doubt it?

In Sportsbet's T&C it is clearly layed out, that when betting on things like Quins, Tri's, Quads etc that Sportsbet's exposure to any one bet is limited to "the highest pool betting on that bet". A very sensible and simple rule, limiting their exposure.
What was the highest pool for the quinella on that Newcastle race?
It was the NSW tote pool which held $11,800 on the quinella.
So under Sportsbet's T&C they were limiting their exposure to any one bet on the quinella in that race to $11,800.

So what happens in this situation?
This is where "stupid" betting sucks, and people betting big need to know what they are dealing with BEFORE they bet!!!!
There is another little tale I'll finish with that demonstrates this perfectly. If you are betting big, you need to know everything about what you are betting on!!!!
In this Quinella situation they will take two approaches:
The bet wins (which it did, in this case), they thank you for your business, but point out their exposure is limited in this case to $11,800. In this case, in round figures, the most we can pay out on is a $12 bet on the winner, not a $600 bet. They pay you the $11,800 they are limited to, and refund you $5,880, as the most they were exposed to was $12. The $12 bet would have cost you $120, so here is $6,000 - $120 = $5,880 back to you.
The bet loses, they pocket the $6,000. No refund, as they don't know for sure your bet exceeded the T&C's. They actually can't know, as the losing combinations never have their dividends revealed. Who are they to say you broke the $11,800 limit?!

The punter doesn't have a leg to stand on, as it is clearly stated in the T&C's, and it is not up to Sportsbet to pre-empt how big the pool might be, or what the expected Divs might be. Remember, in this case the Sportsbet money has nothing to do with the TAB money, so this guy's bets affects nothing to do with the size of the TAB pools, or dividends.

Why do Sportbet put these stories out?
Publicity, of course! Punters are winning big, taking $100,000's off us, and it's easy! They can never be verified, as privacy rules stop them from revealing who etc.

Around 15-20 years ago there was a bank manager in Perth that got caught fiddling the books, and stealing money. He was stealing $20-$30,000 at a time, and betting on the greyhound races with his ill gotten gains. Where he was beyond stupid was, that apart from stealing the money, and nearly guaranteeing a stretch in prison (his plan was to pay it back, when he won, he never won, and it just snowballed on him!), was he had not one clue about what he was doing in regards to pool sizes, and the flow on effect from his betting.
He was betting $5,000 at a time on race to race doubles at the greyhounds :oops:. If he had done just 2 minutes of research (which someone betting $5,000 on the sun coming up tomorrow should even do) he would not have gone anywhere near that type of bet!. Here is the problem with that type of bet, and what he didn't realise, is that for all intents and purposes, it was actually physically impossible for him to win ..... ever!!!
Let's do the maths. The average pool on the race to race doubles on the greyhounds where he was betting was around $1,200-$1,500. Dividends in normal circumstances would be paying somewhere between $10-$30, with some higher and lower. He obviously had his eye on these dividends, and thought $5,000 on, it pays $15, then $75,000 jumps in, problems solved.
Now let's see what really happens. Pool is $1,500, he bets his $5,000, and the pool is now $6,500. The Tote takes it's 20% cut, and the payout pool is now $5,200. With say an expected dividend before numbnuts has bet of $15, that means there was outside of his bet $80 bet on the winning combination. If numbnuts ever actually hit the double (which apparantly across several weeks, and MANY attempts, he never did!), the dividend would have been declared as: $5,200 / $5,080 = $1.02, but the TAB round ALL dividends down! If an expected dividend is $2.09.9999,
they round it down to $2.00, even though it is a fraction of a cent from $2.10. This means numbnuts' winning combination is now paying $1.00. He needed his double to get up, just to get his $5,000 back! No profit even possible!!!!


If you are going to bet big on anything, you really need to know all the ins and outs, all the rules, and all the T&C's, or you are just offering the people accepting the bet a chance to take your money, but they never actually having to risk any of their own money, as it's not their fault you didn't know what you were doing!!!
 
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Could have been our multi. 😁

One TAB punter will be hoping that tonight’s French Open men’s singles final between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal is a lengthy match with potentially one or two tie-break sets as they are on the verge of a $113,284 collect from a $100 multi.

Late yesterday afternoon, the TAB customer in question placed a $100 10-leg multi which included seven races (one yesterday and six today) along with last night’s semi-finals in the AFL and NRL.

The final leg in this multi requires at least 41 games to be played between Djokovic and Nadal in this evening’s decider for the 2020 French Open men’s singles championship.

The selections in the TAB punter’s $100 10-leg multi are:

Pale King to win Race 7 at Kembla Grange yesterday $2.15Geelong to defeat Collingwood $1.62

AFL Semi-Final – Geelong won by 68 points

Souths win vs Parramatta/Over 44.5 Points to be scored $2.25

NRL Semi-Final – Souths won 38-24; 62 points scored

Glamour Fox to win Race 2 at Hawkesbury today $1.95Excelman to win Race 3 at Cranbourne today $2.016 *Scottish Dancer to win Race 5 at Cranbourne today $2.352 *Belluci Babe to win Race 5 at Hawkesbury today $2.10Ancestry to win Race 6 at Cranbourne today $2.35 *So Far Away to win Race 7 at Hawkesbury today $1.76 *Over 40.5 Games to be played between Djokovic and Nadal $1.80

2020 French Open Men’s Singles Final starts midnight AEDT

* indicates that price has been adjusted due to scratchings after multi was placed

“The TAB punter who placed this multi is not concerned over the eventual winner of this year’s French Open men’s singles title as long as the final is a slugfest that potentially requires a fifth set,” TAB’s Trent Langskaill said.

12-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal is the $1.70 favourite at TAB while Novak Djokovic is a $2.15 chance to win his second title at Roland Garros when the men’s singles final commences at midnight AEDT.
Not looking good for this bet - Rafa is currently up 6-0, 3-1 at this point.

I almost put a bet on Rafa not to drop a set all tournament at $15 Monday, but figured the multi I put on was a better chance of getting a return on my $10. Stupid horses - can't rely on them.
 

THCLT

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PC|04 WEEK III REVIEW
Ironhawk

Matthew went globe trotting in search of that elusive winning bet, however, Russian Camelot let one of his multi down and Paraguay drawing with Peru lost him his world soccer multi whilst Bryson DeChambeau 3rd round collapse eroded his chances of winning the Shrines Open golf.

GROUP MULTI RESULT

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Not a pretty sight for our GM for the week but I'm confident we'll rebound from here, below is the updated GM order for Week IV.

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BALANCE SHEET

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WEEKLY SUMMARY

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CUMMULATIVE SUMMARY
***Last 3-weeks

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WEEKLY PERFORMANCE & BALANCE

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DASHBOARDS

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THCLT

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PC|04 WEEK IV GROUP MULTI NOMINATIONS
@THCLT @Impromptu @Diabolical @Ironhawk @jiimmyy @Professor

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Could the above 6 punters...
  • Nominate their 'best bet' for the week on the condition that the odd must be greater than 2-1, that is, greater than $2.00.
  • The event for your selection must commence on Friday or after.
  • Please post your 'best bet' by Thursday night as I'll look to put on the Group Bet multi that evening. The earlier you can post your 'best bet', the sooner I can put on the multi to ensure the odds doesn't change too much.
***Please let me know as soon as practical if you're unable to participate this week so I can give your replacement adequate time to prepare.
 
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