SCS Punter's Club

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
29,223
Likes
2,696
AFL Club
Essendon
#1
Ok let's try this again.

Details:
- entry is $100 for each person for the life of the club (ie. until we either lose it all or cash it all out)
- if we manage to get 10 of us in, the kitty will be $1000
- from that $1000 kitty we'll bet $100 a week so at a minimum the club will run for 10 weeks.. if we don't manage to win a cent lol
- each round each member puts their tips and margins in and from that we'll bet $50 of the $100 on a bunch of multis using a system Rowsus has devised in his super computer (see posts 2 and 14 of this thread for more info)
- the other $50 of the $100 will be up to an allocated individual to pick something they want to bet on. It can be anything, it's completely up to them. If they prefer not to pick something, we can just double the system bets for potentially twice the payout. Once we get going i'll do a random draw so everyone knows when it's their time to bet.
- i will place the bets on each week via my sportsbet account so you don't need to do any betting yourself and won't need to open an account etc. I'll post screenshots into this thread so everyone knows what we're on and stand to win.

If i've missed anything or if anyone is unsure, yell out. Hope i haven't made it too confusing!

How to enter:
Register your interest in this thread. Only active members and those who are able to pay your $100 straight away.

Confirmed and order of betting.
  1. IDIG - paid
  2. Brettthejet - paid
  3. Rowsus - paid
  4. PC - paid
  5. doc ron - paid
  6. KLo30 - paid
  7. Courtesans - paid
  8. Diabolical - paid
  9. Darkie - paid
  10. THCLT
  11. Beijing_Sting - paid
****************************
SECOND CYCLE ORDER AND CHANGES

As mentioned previously, for this second cycle:
- no group tips/bets each week, individual picks only
- $20 minimum bet, $100 total bet weekly
- all bets to be submitted to me at the same time by Thursday 8pm or 24 hours before first bet starts
- win $200 (ie. $100 profit) and you get to bet another week


****************************

THIRD CYCLE

cycle 3.png
 
Last edited:

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,506
Likes
1,319
AFL Club
Melbourne
#2
Everyone will submit their tips and margin for each game.
From there we will boil it down to 3 bankers, and 5 "operators".
The bankers will have a goal price of around $1.40-$1.50
The operators will have a goal price of around $1.70-$2.00
We then place 10 multiple bets, using 3 of the bankers, and 3 of the operators in each bet.
If the prices hit in our goal area, the total odds on each bet will come to between $13 and $30.
We place $7 on each combination. If we hit one combination we get between $100-$200 back. If we hit all 10 combinations, we collect between $1,000-$2,000.
This leaves $30 for us to bet on something else as well.

The bankers and the operators can be straight bets on a team winning, margin bets, tri-bets, handicap bets etc. It comes down to using a consensus of the tips submitted, and what odds are available.
I will boil it down, and show the logic, so people can see how arrived at the bets we place.
 

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
29,223
Likes
2,696
AFL Club
Essendon
#3
Nice one Rows! I think we should have a small dabble at a multi with 3 bankers and 5 operators, just in case :D
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,506
Likes
1,319
AFL Club
Melbourne
#4
Just to help with your tips and margins:

Ade (11th) v Geel (7th) at AO:
Ade ave margin in 7 wins at home in 2018 - 35.0 points
Ade ave margin in 3 losses at home in 2018 - 23.0 points
Ade v top 4 at home: 2 wins, 2 losses - Ade v 5th to 9th at home: 1 win, 0 losses

Geel ave margin in 3 wins interstate in 2018 - 43.7 points
Geel ave margin in 1 loss interstate in 2018 - 15.0 points
Geel v 10th to 14th interstate: 0 games - Geel v 15th to 18th interstate: 1 win, 0 losses

StK (15th) v Carl (18th) at ES:
StK ave margin in 1 win at ES in 2018 - 25.0 points
StK ave margin in 5 losses at ES in 2017 - 47.8 points
StK v 15th to 18th: 2 wins, 0 losses - 1 win at ES, 1 win at Interstate

Carl no wins at ES in 2018
Carl ave margin in 3 losses at ES in 2018 - 37.3 points
Carlton's only win was against 12th placed Ess at the MCG

Haw (8th) v Bris (16th) at UTA:
Haw ave margin in 3 wins at UTA in 2018 - 30.3 points
Haw no losses at UTA in 2018
Haw v 15th to 18th at UTA: 2 wins, 0 losses - ave 44.0 points

Bris ave margin in 1 win interstate in 2018 - 55.0 points
Bris ave margin in 6 losses interstate in 2018 - 37.5 points
Bris v 5th to 9th interstate: 0 wins, 1 loss - ave 54.0 points
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,506
Likes
1,319
AFL Club
Melbourne
#5
Melb (6th) v WBull (14th) at MCG:
Melb ave margin in 2 wins at MCG in 2018 - 73.0 points
Melb ave margin in 5 losses at MCG in 2018 - 32.0 points
Melb v 10th to 14th at MCG: 0 games played. (4 losses at MCG to teams in the 8 (ave 39.5))

WBull have not played at the MCG in 2018.
WBull have all their wins at ES v 7th, 12th, 16th, 17th & 18th. Ave 13.4 points. Ave all losses 43.7 points
WBull v 1st to 4th: 0 wins, 2 losses - ave 43.0 points. WBull v 5th to 9th: 1 win, 4 losses

GC (17th) v Ess (12th) at Met:
GC has no wins at Met in 2018. Ave all wins in 2018 - 18.3 points
GC ave margin in 3 losses at Met in 2018 - 42.0 points
GC v 10th to 15th: 0 wins, 4 losses (ave 48.3 points)

Ess ave margin in 3 wins interstate in 2018 - 28.3 points
Ess ave margin in 1 loss interstate in 2018 - 16.0 points
Ess v 15th to 18th interstate: 1 win (22 points), overall: 1 win, 1 loss.

GWS (10th) v Rich (1st) at Spot:
GWS ave margin in 3 wins at Spot in 2018 - 51.0 points
GWS ave margin in 2 losses at Spot in 2018 - 30.0 points
GWS v 1st to 4th at Spot: 0 games played. All venues: 1 win, 2 losses.

Rich has no wins interstate in 2018
Rich ave margin in 3 losses interstate in 2018 - 32.3 points
Rich v 10th to 14th all games: 3 wins (65 points), 1 loss (36 points). 1 interstate, 36 point loss.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,506
Likes
1,319
AFL Club
Melbourne
#6
Coll (2nd) v WC (3rd) at MCG:
Coll ave margin in 6 wins at MCG in 2018 - 35.3 points
Coll ave margin in 4 losses at MCG in 2018 - 28.5 points
Coll v 1st to 4th at MCG: 0 wins,1 loss (43 points), Coll v 5th to 9th at MCG: 1 win, 2 losses

WC ave margin in 4 wins interstate in 2018 - 25.3 points
WC ave margin in 2 losses interstate in 2018 - 12.5 points
WC at MCG in 2018, 1 game beat Carl (18th) by 10 points.
WC v 1st to 4th: 0 wins, 2 losses both WC home games
WC v 5th to 9th 2 wins, 2 losses, 1 home win, 1 home loss, 1 interstate win, 1 interstate loss

Nth (9th) v Syd (5th) at ES:
Nth ave margin in 5 wins at ES in 2018 - 34.6 points
Nth ave margin in 3 losses at ES in 2018 - 20.0 points
Nth v 1st to 4th at ES: 0 wins, 2 losses, Nth v 5th to 9th at ES: 1 win, 0 losses

Syd ave margin in 2 wins at ES in 2018 - 39.0 points
Syd ave margin in 1 loss at ES in 2018 - 26.0 points (v Rich)
Syd v 1st to 4th, all venues: 2 wins, 2 losses, Syd v 5th to 9th, all venues: 2 wins, 2 losses

Fre (13th) v Port (4th) at OS:
Fre ave margin in 5 wins at OS in 2018 - 26.2 points
Fre ave margin in 3 losses at OS in 2018 - 30.3 points
Fre v 1st to 4th: 0 wins, 4 losses, all interstate except WC.
Freo v 5th to 9th: 0 wins, 3 losses (1 home, 2 interstate)

Port ave margin in 4 wins interstate in 2018 - 29.3 points
Port ave margin in 3 losses interstate in 2018 - 22.3 points
Port v 10th to 15th: 3 wins, 1 loss.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,506
Likes
1,319
AFL Club
Melbourne
#7
My tips:
Ade by 10 points
StK by 28 points
Haw by 38 points
Melb by 32 points
Ess by 52 points
GWS by 16 points
Coll by 26 points
Syd by 11 points
Port by 24 points
 

Darkie

Vice Captain
Joined
12 Apr 2014
Messages
4,313
Likes
400
AFL Club
Collingwood
#8
I’m happy to be involved, especially if you’re looking for more numbers.

Not sure whether it’s a good idea or not in this setup, but personally I’d be happy if there was a contribution to the site as well. I note many of those involved are mods who already contribute a lot!
 

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
29,223
Likes
2,696
AFL Club
Essendon
#9
I’m happy to be involved, especially if you’re looking for more numbers.

Not sure whether it’s a good idea or not in this setup, but personally I’d be happy if there was a contribution to the site as well. I note many of those involved are mods who already contribute a lot!
Thanks Darkie, that’s very nice of you to say. I think it’s probably going to be better to have the whole amount go to the club to avoid having less than $100 bet each week. Maybe if we win a few $100k then a % can go back to the site :D
 

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
29,223
Likes
2,696
AFL Club
Essendon
#10
My tips and margins.
Geelong by 26
St Kilda 36
Hawthorn by 48
Melbourne 54
Essendon by 30
Richmond by 18
Collingwood by 18
Sydney by 12
Port by 30
 

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
29,223
Likes
2,696
AFL Club
Essendon
#11
If we don’t get any other takers, I’d be happy to kick it off this week. What do you guys think? Everyone so far has good credit rating with SCS haha :LOL:
 

KLo30

Moderator
Joined
27 Jan 2014
Messages
6,881
Likes
823
AFL Club
North Melb.
#12
Geelong 6pts
St Kilda 24pts
Hawthorn 30pts
Melbourne 35pts
Essendon 42pts
Richmond 6pts
Collingwood 24pts
Sydney 8pts
Port Adelaide 27pts
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,506
Likes
1,319
AFL Club
Melbourne
#13
Yep, let's kick it off this week.
I'd be surprised, but really happy, if we get more than the 6 we have now, so just need tips from Darkie, THCLT and doc.
Then I'll calculate the bets. I'm happy to throw them on, once calculated, and get us started this week.
 
Last edited:

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
16,506
Likes
1,319
AFL Club
Melbourne
#14
There is weighted system you can use, so that people tipping opposite teams doesn't drag the predicted margin back towards the game being a draw so much.

As an example, using a simple average system in the Ade v Geel game produces this result:
Rowsus Ade 10
IDIG Geel 26
KLo30 Geel 6
Ave 26 + 6 - 10 = 22 ---> Geel by 22/3 = 7.3

The weighted system produces Geel by 12.7

Obviously both of those figures change as the other 3 tips come in.
 

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
29,223
Likes
2,696
AFL Club
Essendon
#15
Nice Row, I’m happy to put the bets on to avoid it getting messy if we win. You can just transfer me the money whenever. We may have another member joining, fingers crossed.

@doc ron @Darkie please put your tips in and we’ll kick it off this week

@THCLT if you can get them in, otherwise we’ll put the bets on without your picks as requested
 

doc ron

Dual Best & Fairest
Joined
8 Feb 2013
Messages
3,407
Likes
531
AFL Club
Hawthorn
#16
Geelong by 6
St Kilda by 20
Hawthorn by 36
Melbourne by 22
Gold Coast by 13
G.W.S by 10
Collingwood by 17
Swans by 22
Port by 34
 

Diabolical

250 Games Club
Joined
17 Jun 2014
Messages
1,743
Likes
509
AFL Club
Essendon
#17
@IDIG after procrastinating on this for 24 hours I’m happy to give this a go. As a punters club newbie I would hate to drag the team down though!!

As @Darkie mentioned, I would feel more comfortable to see something go to the site. If not from the initial outlay, maybe we could agree on a small % of any wins and bank it that way?

Anyhow, I’ll go make a transfer now and come back with my selections shortly.
 

Diabolical

250 Games Club
Joined
17 Jun 2014
Messages
1,743
Likes
509
AFL Club
Essendon
#18
Adelaide by 9
St Kilda by 22
Hawthorn by 15
Melbourne by 28
Essendon by 37
Richmond by 16
Collingwood by 8
Sydney by 11
Port Adelaide by 45
 

IDIG

Moderator
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
29,223
Likes
2,696
AFL Club
Essendon
#19
PC has also confirmed he is in so that makes 8. If anyone else is keen, speak now or forever hold your peace.

I just wanted to clarify a couple of points because i probably didn't explain it especially clearly in my opening post, which might've turned some people off.

- entry is $100 for each person for the life of the club (ie. until we either lose it all or cash it all out)
- if we manage to get 10 of us in, the kitty will be $1000 (currently $800 with 8 of us)
- from that $1000 kitty we'll bet $100 a week so at a minimum the club will run for 10 weeks.. if we don't manage to win a cent lol
- each round each member puts their tips and margins in and from that we'll bet $50 of the $100 on a bunch of multis using a system Rowsus has devised in his super computer (see posts 2 and 14 of this thread for more info)
- the other $50 of the $100 will be up to an allocated individual to pick something they want to bet on. It can be anything, it's completely up to them. If they prefer not to pick something, we can just double the system bets for potentially twice the payout. Once we get going i'll do a random draw so everyone knows when it's their time to bet.
- i will place the bets on each week via my sportsbet account so you don't need to do any betting yourself and won't need to open an account etc. I'll post screenshots into this thread so everyone knows what we're and standing to win.

If i've missed anything or if anyone is unsure, yell out. Hope i haven't made it too confusing! I'll update my opening post so it's a little more detailed.
 
Likes: PC

PC

Captain
Joined
22 Feb 2013
Messages
5,577
Likes
419
AFL Club
Hawthorn
#20
Ok, I'm in! :D

Geelong by 11
St Kilda by 17
Hawthorn by 28
Melbourne by 18
Essendon by 34
Richmond by 15
Collingwood by 21
Sydney by 6
Port Adelaide by 31
 
Top