Competitions SuperCoach Racing 2019 - Rnd 4 Early Tables Up

Diabolical

250 Games Club
Joined
17 Jun 2014
Messages
2,946
Likes
2,875
AFL Club
Essendon
#2
So who is going to give this a crack?

Starts on Saturday, so I might see what I can conjure up to keep me entertained over the Spring carnival. No idea what I’m doing, but hopefully a bit of fun and I can dream about spending $25k for a few more days before the Round 1 results come in!!

Anyone looking for someone to help fill a league? If so, let me know as I’m only in the default league I was assigned to and would rather be against familiar names.
 

Diabolical

250 Games Club
Joined
17 Jun 2014
Messages
2,946
Likes
2,875
AFL Club
Essendon
#6
I'm doing it, but boy! Is that a tough slary cap!

At first I thought we could pick 10 horses for Sydney, then 10 horses for Caulfield on Sunday, but it is all one Round!!!
The rules say that the round locks out at the start of the first race. Does that mean the whole round when it is over two race days, or is it a partial lockout? Would be annoying if it is the whole round when it comes to scratchings for day 2.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
18,450
Likes
7,031
AFL Club
Melbourne
#7
The rules say that the round locks out at the start of the first race. Does that mean the whole round when it is over two race days, or is it a partial lockout? Would be annoying if it is the whole round when it comes to scratchings for day 2.
My guess is the whole round. Most Rounds will be just one day anyway, but you’re right, it’s tough for scratchings on the 2nd day!
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
18,450
Likes
7,031
AFL Club
Melbourne
#9
A few tables follow in the next 3 posts.
They are based on a mathematical formula, that gives an indication on how many points a horse is expected to get, based on his price, relative to the other horses in the race.
I have only looked at the Gp1, Gp2 & Gp3 races.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
18,450
Likes
7,031
AFL Club
Melbourne
#12
I'm a little bit worried about how on top of everything the organisers are. Here is a list of horses, that are due to race in Round 1, but do not appear on the SC Racing price/selection list! I would keep an eye on the top 4, when they do eventually have prices!

SCS19RR1Pm1.png
 

Diabolical

250 Games Club
Joined
17 Jun 2014
Messages
2,946
Likes
2,875
AFL Club
Essendon
#13
Thanks @Rowsus
It is good for a rookie like me to see that I could be on the right track, with 8 of the horses in my initial draft in your tables! I might now have to go and rethink the other two, Just Thinkin’ (Syd R8) and Dalasan (Mel R5) which very well may be donkeys for all that I know!

EDIT: Nevermind - I see they are in your value table!
 
Last edited:

Diabolical

250 Games Club
Joined
17 Jun 2014
Messages
2,946
Likes
2,875
AFL Club
Essendon
#15
The way I see it, the maximum points that could be scored (excluding Jockey scores) for perfect tipping is 312. (2x Gp1 wins + 2x Gp1 2nds + 3x Gp2 wins + 3x (Gp1 3rds or Gp2 2nds or Gp3 wins). I feel I would be doing well to get two or three of those!

The Gp1 Golden Rose only has 8 horses. IF I understand the rules, taking the field would cost $1,625,000 and guarantee 158 points, and guarantee a break even in horse values. Leaves $375,000 to try and nail two other picks where one could score anywhere from 0 to 72 points.

Is this playing it too safe, or, could such a move this early on actually be a good play?
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
18,450
Likes
7,031
AFL Club
Melbourne
#18
I'm pretty sure we can get a double hit at the jockeys this week. There are a number of jockeys with good mounts, at both the Syd Sat. meeting, and Melb Sun. meeting. I can only imagine it is going to operate like a DGW in BBL, so that being the case, choosing one of those jockeys can provide a possible advantage!
The main ones are McEvoy, McDonald, Berry and Lane. Lane and Berry don't get a lot of rides in Syd & Melb respectively, so I would make a choice between McDonald and McEvoy.

Here is how the main guys look, using the same system as used on the horses above. ie, what they might be expected to score in any given race, based on the relative odds of their mounts.

SCS19RR1Jo1.png

Clarke is the highest rated jockey for the Sydney meeting. Lane's expected score across his 2 days of mounts is actually below Clarke's Sydney only score. McDonald and McEvoy don't have many strong Melb mounts, but if they can put up an ok score on Saturday, anything they add on the Sunday is a bonus! None of the Melbourne jockeys riding only at the Sunday meeting get anywhere near McEvoys expected 7.5 total, or McDonald's 7.0 total.
 

Rowsus

Statistician
Joined
19 Mar 2012
Messages
18,450
Likes
7,031
AFL Club
Melbourne
#20
The way I see it, the maximum points that could be scored (excluding Jockey scores) for perfect tipping is 312. (2x Gp1 wins + 2x Gp1 2nds + 3x Gp2 wins + 3x (Gp1 3rds or Gp2 2nds or Gp3 wins). I feel I would be doing well to get two or three of those!

The Gp1 Golden Rose only has 8 horses. IF I understand the rules, taking the field would cost $1,625,000 and guarantee 158 points, and guarantee a break even in horse values. Leaves $375,000 to try and nail two other picks where one could score anywhere from 0 to 72 points.

Is this playing it too safe, or, could such a move this early on actually be a good play?
it’s probably a little too safe. Having said that, I’ll probably have 4 or 5 from that race.
 
Top