Who are your Locks?

Ricky Bobby

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#21
I'm with you, Leroy.
There's no way I'll be starting either of Grundy or Gawn, if it can at all be avoided. At this stage I'll be starting Mummy at R3, and hoping to find 2 stepping stone types, or Goldstein, at R1/2.

Locked:
Whitfield (Burton - nearly)
(Neale - nearly)
(Mumford - nearly)
Dangerfield, Heeney.
Hi Rowsus
Hopefully you are happy with the Dees new recruits and looking forward to a successful 2019 :)
Out of interest, what do you see Whitfield’s upside being? At $542k he isn’t really cheap, but feels about fair value to me. What’s your take on him?
 

Rowsus

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#22
Hi Rowsus
Hopefully you are happy with the Dees new recruits and looking forward to a successful 2019 :)
Out of interest, what do you see Whitfield’s upside being? At $542k he isn’t really cheap, but feels about fair value to me. What’s your take on him?
Hi RB,
I reckon he'll see a fair chunk of Mid time, and even if he doesn't, I reckon they'll be keen to feed him the ball across half back.
He's probably priced around what he might score, but with no Docherty, barring injury, you'd think Whitfield was a lock for a top 3 Def finish.
That's good enough for me, given the doubts around most of the others.
 

Darkie

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#24
On the definition listed, my locks are:

Birchall
Fyfe Dusty Bennell
-
Danger Heeney

Not too far behind would be Hanley, Libba, Mummy, Westhoff and Devon Smith.
 

pizza safety

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#26
Do you have any data to confirm this assertion?
I watch football games, they tag Sloane, Matt Crouch cannot kick the ball. To find that out you can read the prospectus, check afl stats pro or just watch him play. I will be starting him next year though, hes still a great midfielder through pure accumulation but you dont watch him and see his possessions hurt you. Sloane can hurt you with the ball, remember the effect on the whole team when Sloane was tagged out of games?

Edit: Even with the games he missed this season Sloane is still no 10 in champion Data's player ratings for mids based on his performances over the past two years (I know these look somewhat flawed but they are also indicative)
 
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Cookie2711

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#27
The ones that haven't left my side so far
Blakely, Andrews,
Fyfe, Miles, Macrae
Goldstein
Danger, Heeney
 

randomcliche

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#28
Whitfield (Llyod)
Fyfe........ (Titch, Macrae, Kelly)
............... (Grundy)
Danger....(Heeney)
*Bracketed players been on since day one and not left.

FOMO Laird, Zwillliams, Blakley
............Brouch, Libba, Hanners, Miles
............Mummy, Longer
............Greene, Daniher

FOGPS Llyod, Dusty, Kelly, Kreuzer
 

Darkie

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#30
Whitfield (Llyod)
Fyfe........ (Titch, Macrae, Kelly)
............... (Grundy)
Danger....(Heeney)
*Bracketed players been on since day one and not left.

FOMO Laird, Zwillliams, Blakley
............Brouch, Libba, Hanners, Miles
............Mummy, Longer
............Greene, Daniher

FOGPS Llyod, Dusty, Kelly, Kreuzer
What are you concerned about re Dusty mate?
 

randomcliche

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#31
What are you concerned about re Dusty mate?
Concerned that Brownlow year was a spike and his drive post mega contract evaporated. I'm picking him because those risks are largely incorporated into his price. So it's probably not such a pear as not realising the ultra premo output I'm hoping for and know he is capable of.
 

Darkie

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#32
Concerned that Brownlow year was a spike and his drive post mega contract evaporated. I'm picking him because those risks are largely incorporated into his price. So it's probably not such a pear as not realising the ultra premo output I'm hoping for and know he is capable of.
Thanks, this all makes sense.

I'm expecting 21+ @ 108+ ... but if neither of the "pluses" came through, he would probably still be a decent pick. There's upside from there if he gets his fitness/midfield minutes/hunger back.
 

Bomber18

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#33
Thanks, this all makes sense.

I'm expecting 21+ @ 108+ ... but if neither of the "pluses" came through, he would probably still be a decent pick. There's upside from there if he gets his fitness/midfield minutes/hunger back.
Yeah, hoping that worst case he's 105 over 22 games. I had Parker who was 103 over 21 games (and a donut in the final round for me....) - hopefully he turns out to be a better starting pick than that!
 

randomcliche

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#34
Thanks, this all makes sense.

I'm expecting 21+ @ 108+ ... but if neither of the "pluses" came through, he would probably still be a decent pick. There's upside from there if he gets his fitness/midfield minutes/hunger back.
For me Dusty is part of this year's ultra premo capable mid players (Gaz, Pendles, Swans, Rocky, etc of years gone past.) I want the best 8 mids in my team and if he's not that then for me it's a failed pick. It's a fail cause there are a plethora of midpricers that I'd love in my team that could avg 100ish make serious coin and not lose many points to a 105-8 avg. When I put the cursor over cripps or titch I'm not filled with the same sense of risk.
 

Darkie

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#35
For me Dusty is part of this year's ultra premo capable mid players (Gaz, Pendles, Swans, Rocky, etc of years gone past.) I want the best 8 mids in my team and if he's not that then for me it's a failed pick. It's a fail cause there are a plethora of midpricers that I'd love in my team that could avg 100ish make serious coin and not lose many points to a 105-8 avg. When I put the cursor over cripps or titch I'm not filled with the same sense of risk.
I see what you mean. You're probably already aware, but two things worth flagging: even the winning side doesn't normally end up with the top 8 mids, and last year had a higher number of very high mid scorers than is often the case.

The 8th highest averaging mid, if you take out Danger (now forward eligible) averaged 110. One played 13 games though, with two playing 15 and one playing 19. If you look at aggregate points, Callan Ward (22 @ 104.6) would be 8th for the season. Obviously when Fyfe or someone misses, you're likely to get a rookie score (if you don't need to trade for an LTI etc), but it does highlight that a reliable player doesn't need to have a really high average to be competitive with higher averaging but less reliable players.
 
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randomcliche

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#36
I see what you mean. You're probably already aware, but two things worth flagging: even the winning side doesn't normally end up with the top 8 mids, and last year had a higher number of very high mid scorers than is often the case.

The 8th highest averaging mid, if you take out Danger (now forward eligible) averaged 110. One played 13 games though, with two playing 15 and one playing 19. If you look at aggregate points, Callan Ward (22 @ 104.6) would be 8th for the season. Obviously when Fyfe or someone misses, you're obviously likely to get a rookie score (if you don't need to trade for an LTI etc), but it does highlight that a reliable player doesn't need to have a really high average to be competitive with higher averaging but less reliable players.
Thanks Darkie, appreciate it. I haven't had a close look at last year's winning team and the trades they made. I will do this.

I agree points in team(PIT) (rookie scores included when suspended/injured) is very relevant concept and a perennial high scorer (two top 50 finishes) swears by it. Because of this I normally don't pick flogs....until last year and I coped the Sicily suspensions. I'll will probably avoid Greene if not 100% because of this, its questionable if he's is going to hit 100 avg and especially if he cops an extra 2 weeks off.

As for me I'm taking a bit more of a simple route this year. Normally, (like last 10 years) I run mid priced madness....circa 17 non rookies. This year I'm dialling it back. If you make my starting squad (s.t. rookies stepping up) you are most likely to be top X of your position (X=6,8,2,6 by line). This means I'm eschewing some popular sensible picks this year that present very good value (e.g. Z Merrett) in favour of a pretty pure guns and rookies approach (one mid pricer but lets say I can't fully commit to only 12 keepers so it's 12+kreuzer) this year. I guess this is why I put Dusty in the pair shaped risk basket, because he's one that presents risk to my chosen strategy...not so much a risk being a bad pick if you are looking to make a number of value picks, with low downside.

Anyway, it's not RMT thread but here it is since you've read this tome. Happy for comments. Happy if admin moves it as I'm not sure how to reply and put it there.

For what it's worth I think there will be viable starting strategies from 12 to 18 non-rookie players this year if the likes of Greene and Daniher line up round one. It's going to be a very interesting year.
 

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Darkie

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#37
Thanks Darkie, appreciate it. I haven't had a close look at last year's winning team and the trades they made. I will do this.

I agree points in team(PIT) (rookie scores included when suspended/injured) is very relevant concept and a perennial high scorer (two top 50 finishes) swears by it. Because of this I normally don't pick flogs....until last year and I coped the Sicily suspensions. I'll will probably avoid Greene if not 100% because of this, its questionable if he's is going to hit 100 avg and especially if he cops an extra 2 weeks off.

As for me I'm taking a bit more of a simple route this year. Normally, (like last 10 years) I run mid priced madness....circa 17 non rookies. This year I'm dialling it back. If you make my starting squad (s.t. rookies stepping up) you are most likely to be top X of your position (X=6,8,2,6 by line). This means I'm eschewing some popular sensible picks this year that present very good value (e.g. Z Merrett) in favour of a pretty pure guns and rookies approach (one mid pricer but lets say I can't fully commit to only 12 keepers so it's 12+kreuzer) this year. I guess this is why I put Dusty in the pair shaped risk basket, because he's one that presents risk to my chosen strategy...not so much a risk being a bad pick if you are looking to make a number of value picks, with low downside.

Anyway, it's not RMT thread but here it is since you've read this tome. Happy for comments. Happy if admin moves it as I'm not sure how to reply and put it there.

For what it's worth I think there will be viable starting strategies from 12 to 18 non-rookie players this year if the likes of Greene and Daniher line up round one. It's going to be a very interesting year.
I tend to agree with you re a wide ranging number of non rookies being viable in 2019, especially based on what we know at this stage.

Your side looks good and is definitely true to label. Just a few comments from me:

- Lloyd and Macrae look like very high scorers, but I think there's a risk of overpaying for them. Macrae only hit elite status last year, tends to miss games, and has Libba back in the side. There also seems to be change afoot in the Sydney midfield, as is often the way. Laird could be a decent safe alternative if you are comfortable with the Smith/Milera role risk.

- Dunkley seems quite heavily dependent on a favourable role and Libba obviously could affect him as well. At least Dahl is gone I suppose. Mclean affected Dahl in 2H17, then Mclean looked awesome until Dunkley affected him in 2H18. Personally I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern repeats. At a minimum it flags role risk. Dunkley also tends to miss games. He probably seems least true to label in your side, albeit someone obviously has to be! 😀 Smith, Gray and Westhoff could be decent alternatives discussed elsewhere here. Menegola might be among the lower risk options from a scoring perspective if you're happy to simply pay for what you get in that spot.

- Locking away a lot of spots on one line is usually not ideal, but much less of an issue if you're using your approach, in my view, because you're not compromising to maximise the number of keepers. I suppose you could be surprised at who is a top scorer (how many people picked Macrae last year, eg?) but the risk is probably modest. With that said, I'd generally try to strengthen your defence or forwards at the expense of your mids if in doubt. The locks obviously tend to be cheaper outside of the mids as well.

Good luck, it's good to see someone trying a particular approach and trying to stick closely to the script!
 

pizza safety

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#38
Thanks Darkie, appreciate it. I haven't had a close look at last year's winning team and the trades they made. I will do this.

I agree points in team(PIT) (rookie scores included when suspended/injured) is very relevant concept and a perennial high scorer (two top 50 finishes) swears by it. Because of this I normally don't pick flogs....until last year and I coped the Sicily suspensions. I'll will probably avoid Greene if not 100% because of this, its questionable if he's is going to hit 100 avg and especially if he cops an extra 2 weeks off.

As for me I'm taking a bit more of a simple route this year. Normally, (like last 10 years) I run mid priced madness....circa 17 non rookies. This year I'm dialling it back. If you make my starting squad (s.t. rookies stepping up) you are most likely to be top X of your position (X=6,8,2,6 by line). This means I'm eschewing some popular sensible picks this year that present very good value (e.g. Z Merrett) in favour of a pretty pure guns and rookies approach (one mid pricer but lets say I can't fully commit to only 12 keepers so it's 12+kreuzer) this year. I guess this is why I put Dusty in the pair shaped risk basket, because he's one that presents risk to my chosen strategy...not so much a risk being a bad pick if you are looking to make a number of value picks, with low downside.

Anyway, it's not RMT thread but here it is since you've read this tome. Happy for comments. Happy if admin moves it as I'm not sure how to reply and put it there.

For what it's worth I think there will be viable starting strategies from 12 to 18 non-rookie players this year if the likes of Greene and Daniher line up round one. It's going to be a very interesting year.
I see a lot of people starting/locking Kelly but he's just had groin surgery and has a very tough draw to start the year with plenty of potential tags. I think he's an amazing player and has a huge ceiling but all of those facts make me believe he is too much of a risk. He also only put up decent numbers this year against poorer sides, a fact that really stands out when you realise it (92 average in 6 games against top 8 opponents). The hawks, demons and eagles tagged him with reasonable effectiveness. All of this makes me think he's a better upgrade target in the 2nd half of the year. I'm also concerned about starting Whitfield for similar reasons but I most likely will.

Kelly and Oliver are two players I would be locking if it weren't for fairly serious surgeries in their off seasons.
 
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randomcliche

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#39
I see a lot of people starting/locking Kelly but he's just had groin surgery and has a very tough draw to start the year with plenty of potential tags. I think he's an amazing player and has a huge ceiling but all of those facts make me believe he is too much of a risk. He also only put up decent numbers this year against poorer sides, a fact that really stands out when you realise it (92 average in 6 games against top 8 opponents). The hawks, demons and eagles tagged him with reasonable effectiveness. All of this makes me think he's a better upgrade target in the 2nd half of the year. I'm also concerned about starting Whitfield for similar reasons but I most likely will.

Kelly and Oliver are two players I would be locking if it weren't for fairly serious surgeries in their off seasons.
I tend to agree with you re a wide ranging number of non rookies being viable in 2019, especially based on what we know at this stage.

Your side looks good and is definitely true to label. Just a few comments from me:

- Lloyd and Macrae look like very high scorers, but I think there's a risk of overpaying for them. Macrae only hit elite status last year, tends to miss games, and has Libba back in the side. There also seems to be change afoot in the Sydney midfield, as is often the way. Laird could be a decent safe alternative if you are comfortable with the Smith/Milera role risk.

- Dunkley seems quite heavily dependent on a favourable role and Libba obviously could affect him as well. At least Dahl is gone I suppose. Mclean affected Dahl in 2H17, then Mclean looked awesome until Dunkley affected him in 2H18. Personally I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern repeats. At a minimum it flags role risk. Dunkley also tends to miss games. He probably seems least true to label in your side, albeit someone obviously has to be! 😀 Smith, Gray and Westhoff could be decent alternatives discussed elsewhere here. Menegola might be among the lower risk options from a scoring perspective if you're happy to simply pay for what you get in that spot.

- Locking away a lot of spots on one line is usually not ideal, but much less of an issue if you're using your approach, in my view, because you're not compromising to maximise the number of keepers. I suppose you could be surprised at who is a top scorer (how many people picked Macrae last year, eg?) but the risk is probably modest. With that said, I'd generally try to strengthen your defence or forwards at the expense of your mids if in doubt. The locks obviously tend to be cheaper outside of the mids as well.

Good luck, it's good to see someone trying a particular approach and trying to stick closely to the script!
Thanks Darkie and Pizza Safety

So this thread is super interesting.

These are my by players by position who I think are most likely to be top X (X=onflied number of players for position) (aka locks super relevant to this thread).

Defenders (top 6 locks)
Lloyd, Laird, Whitfield, Sicily* (perhaps, Andrews, Blakely, Simpson, Crisp, Howe, Hurley, Williams, Ryan, McGov, I really don't know)
Midfielders (top 8)
Titch, Macrae, Cripps, Oliver**, Fyfe, Kelly (injury cloud), Dusty (#8 could be anyone from Zmerrett, Neale (new club), Treloar**, Coniglio, Gaff, Yeo, or even Higgins).

Rucks (top 2)
Grundy, Gawn

Forwards (top 6)
Danger, Heeney, Smith [Perhaps Gray, Dunkley (FOMO), McLean]

*flog, **injury cloud

As for overpaying on Lloyd and Macrae. Macrae, well he is top dog for mine at the kennel and Bevo realises he causes opposition real headaches. Can't see him moving forward. Dunkley has scored so well there I think can't see them wanting to shift him, but there are many there and perhaps I need to consider this likelihood that he plays forward more pertinantly). Lloyd I really like. Selected him rnd 1 last year. I will make sure to watch the preseason matches though...

As for Kelly, if he plays all preseason matches and is in full training in Feb I think I'll just ride the early tags. The first two games don't impact the price to their full extent that they do from rnd 3 onwards.

So perhaps I'll need to downgrade Kelly (if not fit) to Laird, and upgrade Dunkley to Smith. But I don't like this because I've never been the fan of Laird, perhaps it's all the points he's scored while not in my team. I think it's interesting how few people have locked him in their team here. I'm open to other suggestions on who people think are locks for top X (6/2/8/6) of their position and all the better if makes my team better in the process. Happy days.
 
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