I agree, but not with the Carlton bit
I think the winner of the Collingwood/Melbourne Qualifying final will probably be favorite and be in the box seat.
The loser will have to face either Pt Adel or Bris away in the Preliminary final If they win the next week) and that is a tough road to the GF.
I think we will know more after the first week of the finals, but I would suggest Collingwood/Melbourne would be favorites at this stage.