I was sent this article yesterday also but he numbers aren't nearly as bad as it seems. From 2012 there has been 2 of 11 number 1 selections make the AA team. Of the remaining you could argue that Horne, JUH, Weitering are a lock at some point, Cadman and Rowell high possibilities also?
That would increase the amount to 64%. I haven't crunched the numbers but I would argue this figure could possibly be higher than picks 2 and 3 together over this time period?
I think you’re right in that there is upside to the proportion of #1s that have achieved an AA guernsey in the fullness of time, but if that is the case, it would also be true of the #2s and 3s.
Since 2006 I believe it looks like this (#1 player and number of AAs vs #2 and 3 players and number of AAs)
2006 Gibbs 0 vs Gumbleton 0 + Hansen 0
2007 Kreuzer 0 vs Cotchin 1 + Masten 0
2008 Watts 0 vs NicNat 3 + S Hill 0
2009 Scully 0 vs Trengove 0 + Dusty 4
2010 Swallow 0 vs Bennell 0 + S Day 0
2011 Patton 0 vs Cogs 0 + Tyson 0
2012 Whitfield 1 vs O’Rourke 0 + Plowman 0
2013 Boyd 0 vs J Kelly 1 + Mills 0
2014 P McCartin 0 vs Trac 4 + Angus Brayshaw 0
2015 Weitering 0 vs Schache 0 + Billings 0
2016 McGrath 0 vs Taranto 0 + Clug 0
2017 Rayner 0 vs Andrew Brayshaw 1 + Dow 0
2018 Walsh 1 vs Lukosius 0 + Rankine 0
2019 Rowell 0 vs Anderson 0 + L Jackson 0
2020 JUH 0 vs Thilthorpe 0 + Phillips 0
2021 JHF 0 vs Sam Darcy 0 + Callaghan 0
2022 Cadman 0 vs Ashcroft 0 + Sheezel 0
#1s 2 guernseys
#2s 10 guernseys
#3s 5 guernseys
So the #1s are well and truly covered by the 2s and 3s (2 guernseys vs 15 combined). Even the #3s alone have the #1s well covered (2 vs 5), albeit Dusty contributed 4 of those!
One thing that I think is striking is that even the two “successful” #1 picks have “only” earned one guernsey each. There have been no multiple representatives to date.
In terms of #2s and 3s that would have a good chance at earning an AA guernsey at some point, the names would probably include Clug, Anderson, Jackson, Ashcroft, Sheezel and arguably others. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Trac or Andrew Brayshaw in there again, which would boost the 2s and 3s tally.
Interestingly, here’s the performance of a select few #5s - admittedly a couple of them outside of the 2006+ era 😋
2004 Franklin 8
2005 Pendlebury 7
2006 Boak 3
Any of those 3 currently has the whole of the 2006-22 cohort of #1 picks covered 😱
If WC can get anywhere near pick 2 and 3 for pick 1, they should take it and run!
