Analysis Gary Ablett

[Impromptu]

Gary Ablett of Gold Coast is a SuperCoach maestro and a proven SuperCoach super premium. Ablett must be considered in SuperCoach 2013.

Name - Gary Ablett (GCS)
Price - $740,500
Ave - 138.4(20), 127.1(20), 129.8(21), 140.1(19), 132.2 (19)
Draw - STK, SYD, BRL, PORT, GWS, FRE, MEL, RIC, HAW, GEE, NTH, ESS

Ablett in any given year would be a lock for most people, however I hear whispers from a number of people that they may not get Ablett with legitimate reasons vary from:

1. Age
2. Too expensive
3. Injury Prone
4. Better valued alternatives in general
5. Better valued alternatives for round 13 players (for those Bye Strategy focused)
6. More attention will be given to Ablett as Gold Coast improve and become more of a threat

At first instance, Ablett was a lock for me. However, with further analysis, I am still undecided.

PERMA-CAPTAIN

In the past Ablett was the perma-captain, the guy you can rely on for a score of at least 120+ per game.

For me this view still remains, Ablett is still the perma-captain. However, with the Captain Loophole and the Rolling Lockout, you will be able to have 2 bites of the Cherry without the usage of the Permanent-Captain. For example, if you have Swan and Cotchin and depending on the fixture you can make your vice-captain Swan and if Swan doesn't score 120+, then you can make Cotchin captain. Therefore, the perma-captain advantage of Ablett may have less weight in 2013 with the Captain Loophole and the Rolling Lockout.

On the flip-side having Ablett could mean he becomes a major player in the Captain Loophole and Rolling Lockout. Imagine, being able to take a gamble on Buddy as your vice-captain who can score 80 or 180 and being able to cover it with Ablett. Pretty handy deal right? In addition, imagine having Ablett as your vice-captain without the concern of a subbed game due to injury. Pretty handy again right. Stalemate!!

FALLEN PREMIUM

Now, Ablett having a high price and equally high breakeven means that any consecutive drop in scoring could mean a discount of say $100K. The first question is whether $100K discount is worth the risk of not having Ablett going in beast-mode and we all know this can occur. To not choose Ablett on this basis you need to have some benefit with the 'Loose Change'

One thing you may want to consider that if Ablett does become a fallen premium, you may be able to trade him out after 2 bad games to avoid the price drop. Now in the past, this would be frowned upon, but with the increase in allocation of trades to 30, this may be a possibly. This strategy of stopping the leakage in value after 2 low scores should only be as a last resort. Naturally, you need to be careful with the number of trades allocated.

One thing you may want to consider is that if you don't start with Ablett, it may take 2 trades to bring Ablett into your side, which could mean 2 side trades.

THE DRAW

Ablett's opponents appear decent and after the first 2 games, Ablett's next 6 opponents are BRL, PORT, GWS, FRE, MEL, RIC. I'm not sure what to make of the draw, but my personal view is games where Gold Coast have a chance to win, he might score big.

Verdict: LIKELY(2) moved from LOCKED(1)

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Reason 6 and reason 1.3 are the only concerns I have with Ablett. He is highly likely in my team BUT there a good 3 months in between now and round 1 so I know I may alter my stance on him being a lock for me.

 

[Creeker]

If Ablett is fit at the start of the season, he will be in my team. It's not very often he lets you down as a perma captain. If he smashes it at the start of the year it can be hard , ( trades and finances ) to bring him into your team. If he has a slow start you can easily trade him before his price drops.

You never drive the old Holden ( Watson, Cotchin, Kennedy ) and leave the Ferrari ( Ablett ) in the shed.

 

[Impromptu]

If Ablett is fit at the start of the season, he will be in my team. It's not very often he lets you down as a perma captain. If he smashes it at the start of the year it can be hard , ( trades and finances ) to bring him into your team. If he has a slow start you can easily trade him before his price drops.

You never drive the old Holden ( Watson, Cotchin, Kennedy ) and leave the Ferrari ( Ablett ) in the shed.

Totally agree, the only exception is if you are going for a 10 rookie/mid-pricer strategy

 

[Zim^zuM]

We had a fairly lengthy debate in the MID's topic and it can go either way. I think the best thing for fantasy is that he does a 8 week injury before round one and we don't have to think about it lol.

As Jay has eluded to no doubt he should drop in value even if he scores well. And the $700,000 question is that 100k worth the points you dont get, potentially x2. For it to be worth it you have to be pretty bang on with all your VPP's

Taken from one of my other posts...

For 2012

A+ Swan + A+ Pendelbury = 4517

A+ Ablett + A- Dangerfield = 5383 (I know Danger ended up an A+ but he started of a low mid pricer)

A+ Ablett + A- Sidebottom = 4999

A+ Ablett + B+ Martin = 4538

Even Ablett + Lake is 4378 and close to Pendles/Swan. So you can still make up that 75K in another area.

I forget to do prices lol.

Pendlebury/Swan = $1,361,600 = 4517
Ablett/Danger = $1,124,400 = 5383
Ablett/Sideburn = $1,141,400 = 4999
Ablett/Martin = $1,225,200 = 4538
Ablett/Lake = $975,900 = 4378

 

[Nk29]

Ablett averages LESS in wins than in losses at gold coast. In wins he averages only 115.67 (with a high score of 133) while in losses he averages 135.76 (and that includes a 19 from last year). Keep in mind that this is a small sample (as gold coast only have 5 career wins) but it shows that in wins other gold coast youngsters step up and thus reduce his ceiling as he is not a one man team. Therefore I will be avoiding him because I see his numbers falling with more wins plus price, injuries etc.

 

[Impromptu]

Ablett averages LESS in wins than in losses at gold coast. In wins he averages only 115.67 (with a high score of 133) while in losses he averages 135.76 (and that includes a 19 from last year). Keep in mind that this is a small sample (as gold coast only have 5 career wins) but it shows that in wins other gold coast youngsters step up and thus reduce his ceiling as he is not a one man team. Therefore I will be avoiding him because I see his numbers falling with more wins plus price, injuries etc.

Nice pick up on that stat mate (noting your comments it's a small sample).

 

[Zim^zuM]

I don't think they will win more than 4-5 games

 

[Rowsus]

If Ablett is fit at the start of the season, he will be in my team. It's not very often he lets you down as a perma captain. If he smashes it at the start of the year it can be hard , ( trades and finances ) to bring him into your team. If he has a slow start you can easily trade him before his price drops.

You never drive the old Holden ( Watson, Cotchin, Kennedy ) and leave the Ferrari ( Ablett ) in the shed.

I have a huge problem with this concept of "If he has a slow start you can easily trade him before his price drops".
One it's ridiculously dangerous to trade a player like Ablett once you have him, unless he has an LTI or suspension.
Two, and more importantly, if you are thinking of trading him out in round 2, I'm guessing he might have started with 2 scores of 90. If you've paid $740k for him, and only seen a return of 180 points in the 2 weeks, you've had a return on your dollars of each point, per week, costing you $8222. Given we are hoping to end up with an average of around ($10,000,000/22 = ) $4545 you are really getting yourself into a sticky situation if you trade him out. If the rest of your team scores at $4545 per point you will score 2127 in those 2 weeks. It means in round 2 you are already 146 behind the teams that achieved the $4545/point and probably already 350 to 400 behind the leaders, and trading out the one player in the league that you might depend on for big scores, historically. You create a potential negative POD on a lot of the leading teams! You are making the assumption after 2 games, and no LTI or suspension, that he is just no good this season!
No LTI, no suspension, you are really treading on dangerous ground trading him out, even if he averages 50 in the first 2 games. His price will drop around $110,000. You might think I can trade him out now, before the price drop, wait until he bottoms out, and trade him back in. If he goes large in rounds 3 and 4, you've missed those points, and your even further behind the leaders! If you think there is a reasonable chance he won't go large, and he might just improve his 50's to 90's, I question why you paid $740k for a player for which you have such low expectations!

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Ablett averages LESS in wins than in losses at gold coast. In wins he averages only 115.67 (with a high score of 133) while in losses he averages 135.76 (and that includes a 19 from last year). Keep in mind that this is a small sample (as gold coast only have 5 career wins) but it shows that in wins other gold coast youngsters step up and thus reduce his ceiling as he is not a one man team. Therefore I will be avoiding him because I see his numbers falling with more wins plus price, injuries etc.

Yeah, totally agree with Jay. Very good observation you made there and good context noting in the sample size. There will be lots of reasons not to have Ablett. Still may have him, still may not. Much water to go under the bridge until round 1. The better Gold Coast look like being in pre-season the more likely I am to leave Ablett out of starting team. Until now a lot of coaching staff of opposition have not been fussed putting too much attention on Ablett but once Gold Coast look like improving more he will be given more tagging attention as it might be the difference between another side pocketing 4 premiership points or letting it slip to the up and coming Suns.

 

[johno686]

No Ablett for me

 

[IDIG]

Likely for me. Just can't see you being a chance at winning o) without him from round 1, especially with a captain loopholes mentioned by Jay. It's a big advantage in my eyes having that flexibility with someone who can go huge.

 

[Drew]

Just playing with the team planner tonight and i think i'll save the extra cash and go with Pendlebury, just as good perma-capt early on, last year had 12 scores over 120 and only 3 under 100, Ablett had 16 over 120 and 2 under 100. Will definetely being looking at him as an early upgrade though hopefully he pulls a couple of 90's early on and gives us a nice price drop by round 4 or 5 once the cash cows start moo'ing.

 

[Courtesans]

Just playing with the team planner tonight and i think i'll save the extra cash and go with Pendlebury, just as good perma-capt early on, last year had 12 scores over 120 and only 3 under 100, Ablett had 16 over 120 and 2 under 100. Will definetely being looking at him as an early upgrade though hopefully he pulls a couple of 90's early on and gives us a nice price drop by round 4 or 5 once the cash cows start moo'ing.

Ablett...first picked.

 

[I_am_aweSAM]

Just playing with the team planner tonight and i think i'll save the extra cash and go with Pendlebury, just as good perma-capt early on, last year had 12 scores over 120 and only 3 under 100, Ablett had 16 over 120 and 2 under 100. Will definetely being looking at him as an early upgrade though hopefully he pulls a couple of 90's early on and gives us a nice price drop by round 4 or 5 once the cash cows start moo'ing.

As you noted he only had two scores under 100 in a WHOLE SEASON! Next sentence you're saying, hopefully he scores a few under 100 in the first 4 games?!? Seems an awfully large gamble.

 

[johno686]

Just playing with the team planner tonight and i think i'll save the extra cash and go with Pendlebury, just as good perma-capt early on, last year had 12 scores over 120 and only 3 under 100, Ablett had 16 over 120 and 2 under 100. Will definetely being looking at him as an early upgrade though hopefully he pulls a couple of 90's early on and gives us a nice price drop by round 4 or 5 once the cash cows start moo'ing.

Thats what i will be doing mate. Lock it in and save the extra cash

 

[Zim^zuM]

Thats what i will be doing mate. Lock it in and save the extra cash

Best case scenario is Ablett gets concussed in a first qtr, drops in price, misses a week so others hold onto him.

 

[Creeker]

Enjoying all the different opinions about Gazza ! I can see both sides to this issue but I just can't get my head around starting my Supercoach team without the best player in the AFL. It is highly unlikely that he would have to be dropped out of our teams before round 3 because of low scoring. He may lose some value at the start of the season but at least we wont have to use up to 2 trades to get him in our teams.
Just my opinion, but the more people who jump off Ablett, the better it will be for us who start with him.
I just can't see anyone winning Supercoach without the great man.
Locked and Loaded.

 

[Zim^zuM]

Have the last 3 winners started with GAZ?

 

[Rowsus]

Enjoying all the different opinions about Gazza ! I can see both sides to this issue but I just can't get my head around starting my Supercoach team without the best player in the AFL. It is highly unlikely that he would have to be dropped out of our teams before round 3 because of low scoring. He may lose some value at the start of the season but at least we wont have to use up to 2 trades to get him in our teams.
Just my opinion, but the more people who jump off Ablett, the better it will be for us who start with him.
I just can't see anyone winning Supercoach without the great man.
Locked and Loaded.

Have the last 3 winners started with GAZ?

2012 - Powertothepeople - Chewylizard - Yes, he started with Ablett. He traded him out in rnd 5 when injured, Ablett returned in rnd 7, and Chewy got him back in again in rnd 9.
2011 - Impromptu SCE - Impromptu - NO, he didn't start with Ablett. He traded him in rnd 12!
2010 - Blue Thunder - Mutleyblue - Yes, he started with Ablett. Kept him all season.
2009 - Buster Gonads - ????????? - Yes, he started with Ablett, he traded him out in rnd 7 when injured. Ablett returned in rnd 9, and Buster got him back in his team in rnd 11.

So 3 out of 4 started with him, and he has been out of the winning team in 12 games in 4 years. Chewy missed him in rnds 7 and 8 in 2012. In 2011 he only played 8 out of a possible 9 games before Jay traded him in. Buster went two weeks without him in 2010.
Yes, you can win SC without G Ablett, let alone without starting him. It's just that bit harder without him in your team for most of the year.