Analysis Shannon Byrnes

[Impromptu]

Shannon Byrnes of Melbourne could be a decent mid-priced player in SuperCoach 2013. A move from Geelong may give Byrnes opportunities.

Name - Shannon Byrnes (MEL)
Position - FWD
Price - $230,100
Average - 43.0(4), 40.8(5), 78.2(20), 84.3(19), 57.7(9)
Draw - PTA, ESS, WCE, GWS, BRL, CAR, GCS, RIC, FRE, HAW, COL, BYE, STK

Former Geelong player, Shannon Byrnes was traded to Melbourne during the AFL trade period. Byrnes has often been considered as one of those potential SuperCoach players to pick, however was too much of a risk with the star studded line-up of Geelong. Now at Melbourne, Byrnes is more likely to be given opportunities at Melbourne and should seriously be a strong consideration.

REASONS FOR SHANNON BYRNES

The first reason to pick Byrnes is 'value''. Byrnes is priced only at $230,100, which means you are only paying a small surcharge when compared with the high draft rookies. So long as Byrnes plays full-games, I have no doubt Byrnes will increase in value. Melbourne also have a decent draw including games against PTA, GWS, BRL and GCS in the first 7 rounds.

Furthermore, you can see Byrnes potential as when Byrnes was at Geelong, the year where Byrnes played over 10 games, he averaged respectable scores of 78.2 and 84.3.

REASONS AGAINST SHANNON BYRNES

The concern with Byrnes is apparently he is borderline in Melbourne's best 22. Some people believe Byrnes may start on the bench or is a red/green vest candidate. I think the pre-season games will give us an idea.

For me, I think Byrnes should be selected purely based on value and potential. We have an accomplished and experienced player who wasn't given opportunities at Geelong. At Melbourne, I believe Byrnes will be given game time and more opportunities. Even though Byrnes appears to be a substitute risk, I think with the new Rolling Lockout rules, you can trade him or move him to the bench if he is green vested. If you believe Byrnes could be red vested then you could use the EMG Loophole via the 'Floating Donut'.

I've chosen Likely as my verdict, but will probably moved to locked once we get a better idea of Melbourne's best 22.

Verdict: LIKELY(2)

 

[IDIG]

For me, I think Byrnes should be selected purely based on value and potential. We have an accomplished and experienced player who wasn't given opportunities at Geelong. At Melbourne, I believe Byrnes will be given game time and more opportunities. Even though Byrnes appears to be a substitute risk, I think with the new Rolling Lockout rules, you can trade him or move him to the bench if he is green vested. If you believe Byrnes could be red vested then you could use the EMG Loophole via the 'Floating Donut'.

This +1 x 100.

As long as he plays pre season and named round 1 is a lock for F5/6 for me depending on which structure I go with. I can see him getting at least a couple of 90+ scores in those early weeks which means he should be nice and ripe round 8/9.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

I'm going to watch very closely but for reasons I touched on in player x versus player y thread he is every chance of having a price jump of well over $150 K. The tricky part is the rate of price increase I'm less certain of. If I want to pick him as a cash cow and not a keeper then I would be hoping to trade him around the time of byes give or take a round or two. Will he be ripe then of well over $400 K to fund an upgrade ?
I'm still uncertain in supercoach about the acceleration of price increases for non-rookies.
I need to look into this more so I fully understand if he will be ripe when I need him to be ripe. No point he take all season to increase well over $150 K if I need him to make that increase in half the time....

That is the only dilemma I see here.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

I am strongly considering Byrnes for my forward line for the reason I have listed as the second post in the Chris Knights thread.
I like the fact he will/should get plenty of time in the midfield and I believe he will rise in value quickly enough for me to upgrade before the byes, much the same as Oz mentions. Currently up to using Rowsus' tips to work of player value and what I predict their average, matches and total points for 2013 will be.

 

[supergirl]

I have looked at Byrnes and it is a massive pass for me. Although it was just hard for him to break into Geelong (as it was pretty top quality) not only is he double the price of a rookie, he wont be as good as a rookie.

Yes I can say well the thing is hes not a rookie, but neither is Staker, Hitchcock, ****, Bartlett etc Tom Lee as well. Byrnes will play mostly forward in 2013.

Dees went on a mid recruiting rampage Jones, Viney, Toumpas, Rodan etc and already have Trengove, Jones, Sylvia to run through their rotations.

Byrnes averaged ok 3 years ago but I would still prefer someone priced at $130,000 averaging 55 than a player at $230,000 averaging 70 if that makes sense and I haven't mentioned McKenzie, Davey, Evans or Grimes yet either, also have Couch, Magner on the rookie list. Then the addition of Dawes and Pedersen and the return of Clark from injury along with Howe and Watts means they really need the little crumbing forwards.
Byrnes averaged 80ish with mid rotations at Geelong. Not many pure forward pockets average 80+ but just my 2 cents worth.

 

[WandP]

I have looked at Byrnes and it is a massive pass for me. Although it was just hard for him to break into Geelong (as it was pretty top quality) not only is he double the price of a rookie, he wont be as good as a rookie.

Yes I can say well the thing is hes not a rookie, but neither is Staker, Hitchcock, ****, Bartlett etc Tom Lee as well. Byrnes will play mostly forward in 2013.

Dees went on a mid recruiting rampage Jones, Viney, Toumpas, Rodan etc and already have Trengove, Jones, Sylvia to run through their rotations.

Byrnes averaged ok 3 years ago but I would still prefer someone priced at $130,000 averaging 55 than a player at $230,000 averaging 70 if that makes sense and I haven't mentioned McKenzie, Davey, Evans or Grimes yet either, also have Couch, Magner on the rookie list. Then the addition of Dawes and Pedersen and the return of Clark from injury along with Howe and Watts means they really need the little crumbing forwards.
Byrnes averaged 80ish with mid rotations at Geelong. Not many pure forward pockets average 80+ but just my 2 cents worth.

This. As much as i love the bloke - great clubman at the Cats and probably my favourite on twitter (some Byrnes gold - https://twitter.com/ShannonBoourns/status/231378485740965889) there are just so many better value options that will either average more, or generate more cash. Extra midfield time is a furphy - too much young midfield talent on the Dees list to develop.

 

[Rowsus]

This. As much as i love the bloke - great clubman at the Cats and probably my favourite on twitter (some Byrnes gold - https://twitter.com/ShannonBoourns/status/231378485740965889) there are just so many better value options that will either average more, or generate more cash. Extra midfield time is a furphy - too much young midfield talent on the Dees list to develop.

Not being a smart alec, but could you name 2 or 3? Without using any Rookies, as they are unknown quantities

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Not being a smart alec, but could you name 2 or 3? Without using any Rookies, as they are unknown quantities

Yeah I am struggling too with forward rookies, apart from Staker, Troy Menzel, St Kilda's Lee and maybe Macaffer I am struggling.
Even all the ones I have listed have BIG question marks for one if not a number of factors.

 

[BigRuss]

Forward Line undoubtedly the hardest to structure for mine this year. Very very few cheap choices. Will se many of the Varcoes, Bocks, JJ Kennedys, Greys (300kish) filling Fwds 5/6 come round 1 at this stage i think

 

[WandP]

Not being a smart alec, but could you name 2 or 3? Without using any Rookies, as they are unknown quantities

In a similar price bracket in the FWD line, i see Varcoe and Josh Kennedy as having the potential to average more (albeit both with less durability particularly in Varcoe's case) and Knights and Bock are thereabouts although like Byrnes i'm not convinced.

Have a feeling that Byrnes has been recruited more for his clubmanship and professionalism than his pure statistical output and that's where the dees coaching team see his worth. I reckon he will be used as a defensive forward, providing valuable leadership in the f50 with their talented youngsters taking the key roles. Think a Junior McDonald at GWS but instead of being in the midfield, spending more time up forward. I mean, the bloke's 175cm, 79kg and 29 yo! Will hardly be marshalling the troops in the guts on the regular. That being said, his JS should be good.

Macaffer and Staker i can see generating more cash out of the known quantities, purely due to their lower starting price not scoring potential per se. Like you said, rookies are a different beast and i think we're all hoping someone's going to jump out of the block in the NAB cup because it's slim pickings at this stage.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

I actual read it as Rowsus was curious as whom are the young midfield talent at Dees you were referring to " Extra midfield time is a furphy - too much young midfield talent on the Dees list to develop"

If Dees struggle in midfield maybe Byrne will pinch hit there but I really am not sure. Just reading and curious myself to the whole Dees development as a team and club. Apart from Nathan Jones I struggle to think of what are the main Dee midfielders for next season. I suspect Viney will get a lot of game time but in recent years clubs have been trending towards rotating up to 8 different players through the midfield during game time. What are their other 5 or 6 midfielders that come to mind readily ?
I'm very interesting in a football sense what is happening with Magner at Deeland... he got put back on rookie list.. don't understand that because I thought they were grooming him to be a big part of the midfield for next 5 or so years.

 

[supergirl]

I actual read it as Rowsus was curious as whom are the young midfield talent at Dees you were referring to " Extra midfield time is a furphy - too much young midfield talent on the Dees list to develop"

I think WandP may have been referring to my post on all the players at Melb, but I was only naming them to show a point that Byrnes will 95% be playing fwd pocket. I could be wrong

 

[Rowsus]

I think you are all right in your doubts about Byrne. He will play mainly Fwd pocket, and he will struggle to get any consistent/meaningful on ball time.
This is obviously a bad thing when playing for a team like Melbourne, who struggle to get the ball into the Fwd50, let alone use it well when they do.
I like Byrne, and he will 90% likely be in my team for 2 reasons.
In the reasons against, that I stated above, it would seem to indicate the ball will spend a lot of time on the ground when in the Melbourne Fwd line. The upshot of that is, if you have a Melbourne Fwd, is that he should be a smaller player.
Secondly, in the abscence of any obvious Zorkos (16/100), Treloars (18/83) or Adams (15/75), picking a Fwd Rookie that will play more than 12 to 14 games, and average better than 65 is like playing lotto. With Byrne, even though you are paying twice the price, I think you are getting good JS, and he should be able to average at least 70.
Does he have the potential growth of a lower priced Rookie? No. Is he likely to get to his Milking price quicker than a rotated-in-and-out-of-the-side Rookie? Definitely. Does he have a potential upside, to average more than a satisfactory 70/game? Undoubtedly.
He's in for me, at this stage.


oh, and p.s. WandP answered the question I intended, but I was intrigued by others take on it

 

[WandP]

Yes, was agreeing with supergirl's point of view. Supergirl named 10 from Melbourne's list that could all potentially rotate through that i think the coaches will prioritise developing.

This isn't to say that Byrnes won't also rotate through because i think he will at times, but i don't think he will spend enough time there to significantly impact his scoring. Just my 2 cents and like supergirl said, i could be wrong! Just all conjecture at this stage isn't it?

 

[IDIG]

After the other night, has anyone seen enough to lock/dismiss Byrnes? I'm still very weary about depending on a Macaffer (Lee/Neade/Kerridge/random rookie) as my F6/7/8 and think Byrnes (Macaffer/rookie) feels a lot safer, especially if i plan to start with Stevie J which is very likely at the moment,

 

[Philzsay]

After the other night, has anyone seen enough to lock/dismiss Byrnes? I'm still very weary about depending on a Macaffer (Lee/Neade/Kerridge/random rookie) as my F6/7/8 and think Byrnes (Macaffer/rookie) feels a lot safer, especially if i plan to start with Stevie J which is very likely at the moment,

Unfortunatly his performance has only made me more confused and uncertain about whether or not to pick him. Didn't do enough to lock him in but probably just did enough for me to not immediately dismiss him.

 

[mpollock]

I think the job security of J.Dahiher must impact on the decision to get one or more of Varcoe, Byrnes or Knights.
Macaffer look a lock and has torn up the preseason ... i think he is ok for a D6.

 

[Bomber18]

UNLIKELY
Don't think he'll reach 80 that he got in a top 4 side.
Will average around 65-70, not worth the extra price tag.

I'd rather pay 70k more for J.Kennedy or even 30k for Karnezis (do i have the guts? )!
ATM, I have Varcoe at F6, who will definitely average 80+

 

[mpollock]

Varcoe as a forward 6 ... expensive forward line then

 

[Courtesans]

I have been doing the Byrnes/Varcoe shuffle. Varcoe for the moment. Byrnes may get stuck around the pockets crumbing goals. May kick 3 or 4 but get 7 or 8 touches doing it. Having one or the other does mean robbing Peter to pay Paul elsewhere however, is the nature of the juggling act.