Discussion 2025: AFL SuperCoach Discussion - OPEN

[Merv Neagle]

I have absolutely no recollection of this guy who debuted at the end of last season but he put up some pretty impressive numbers.
He's a DEF-MID DPP option at $338K (priced at 62.8 after the discount - did average 78.5)

View attachment 83185
Are there any Bomber fans out there with a better memory than me..
Is he best 23 this year? Is he worth $338K ?

Elite kick

 

[Under The Dome]

In regard to value vs premium selections for the defence comes down to:

• Flanders - What impact will Rioli have on his role/scoring.
• Ryan - Is his role/point scoring affected by Clark?
• Sinclair / NWM - Will rotations through the midfield be affected by Macrae/Philipou?
• Clark - Is he now the go to player out of defence, will Chapman have any effect?
• Sicily - uncertain what his role is with Josh Battle and Tom Barrass being recruited.

I would rather spend money in the midfield where the role is more defined.

For me it was 2 premium midfielders vs 2 premium defenders, I chose to go with Serong and Merrett as I have less concerns about their role / point scoring consistency than I do the equivalent defenders.

Flanders is mid forward. He moved there last season and dropped sub 100s.
Fremantle changed game plan against stat padding Ryan.
Sinclair and NWM are better rebound defenders and should both be there.
Clark was a break out and became that guy to the point he started getting tagged.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

I have absolutely no recollection of this guy who debuted at the end of last season but he put up some pretty impressive numbers.
He's a DEF-MID DPP option at $338K (priced at 62.8 after the discount - did average 78.5)

View attachment 83185
Are there any Bomber fans out there with a better memory than me..
Is he best 23 this year? Is he worth $338K ?

AFL 2025: Every club’s best 23 for season opener, predicted teams, SuperCoach picks | Herald Sun

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Flanders is mid forward. He moved there last season and dropped sub 100s.
Fremantle changed game plan against stat padding Ryan.
Sinclair and NWM are better rebound defenders and should both be there.
Clark was a break out and became that guy to the point he started getting tagged.

Thank you for the insight, food for thought!

 

[OnTopBar]

I have an observation about defence. Given that the forward line seems to have a plethora of value options and most of us are loading up on these, I am a bit surprised how many backlines I have seen that are also weighted towards value selections.

I get the idea of value and having more trades these days helps if one of the MPM selections doesn’t come up to scratch. However I have seen teams with one def keeper and the rest value picks plus rookies. As most teams also have Oliver or Peatling or both in the mids it really starts to stretch the imagination that all of these mid range picks will work out.

My first line of thought was that a lot of people would secure the backline with at least three keepers and maybe one value pick. Hopefully that would reduce volatility on that line and allow coaches to concentrate on the forward line which could see plenty of trade action. But it seems not at the moment.

Still it is early days, so teams will no doubt change greatly between now and Rd 1.

Yeah, this early the make up of teams is about structure, running 3 premos, 2 MP's and a rookie for now. Guess some are loading up the mids going cheaper in the forwards and defence, those lines are easier to upgrade into rather than the mids so I get it. Loading up on MP's does give options though for corrections with a 'one up, one down' scenario.

 

[Under The Dome]

Noble and Rioli will keep out a few alongside Powell.

Flanders scores with 23%+ Cba's were 124, 128, 102, 117, 114, 104, 106, 128, 141, 91, 93, 120 and 161. Another unicorn like Sheezel without the tags that the other in Daicos gets.

 

[Herbie66]

View attachment 83187

AFL 2025: Every club’s best 23 for season opener, predicted teams, SuperCoach picks | Herald Sun

Prior @ $ 169,200.00 might be a option

Early Bye (Round 4)

+ El-Hawli , Kako , Reid & Tsatas as possibilities

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Does anyone see Sam Draper lifting his average in the Ruck?

 

[OnTopBar]

Does anyone see Sam Draper lifting his average in the Ruck?

View attachment 83192

Simple answer is no

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Simple answer is no

 

[BIGB0Y]

Noble and Rioli will keep out a few alongside Powell.

Flanders scores with 23%+ Cba's were 124, 128, 102, 117, 114, 104, 106, 128, 141, 91, 93, 120 and 161. Another unicorn like Sheezel without the tags that the other in Daicos gets.

They are some pretty decent scores

 

[Manikato1]

Depends a lot on the D & M rookies.

I can get :-

Sinclair , Clark , McKercher + the standard Mills & Coleman

but Butters , Serong , Oliver + B Smith (rookie at F6) so might be thin @ M4-8.

Allows 2 premium rucks with Flynn @ Flex which may or may not be viable.

If Flynn doesn't look viable will need to change things around.

Juggle some dollars around and I might be able to get a Peatling price type @ M5

Obviously until Round 1 rookies are known nothing is set in stone.

Agree rookie priced players (not pure rookies) will have a huge influence on final structures. There seems to be a lot of $150k-200k options at the moment. Currently I do not think Mills and Coleman combo is a likely starting option. It is hard to know if Coleman will be ready. If he is held back a game or two you cannot start him.

Mills is dependent on role which hopefully we will have a better idea following pre season games and Rd 0. Even if he starts in a good scoring role there is no guarantee he won't get swapped around. Last couple of years he has played midfield, wing, HB and forward in consecutive weeks. Of course Cox may change that but he has been a Mr Fixit in the past and that is a risk.

 

[Russty_]

Does anyone see Sam Draper lifting his average in the Ruck?

View attachment 83192

Maybe, but if you're hoping for that it could be a very disappointing outcome, he's just still so inconsistent.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

 

[wogitalia]

Is there a reason Heeney is at only 3%. I get the early bye and he tailed off a bit last season, but that still seems very low?

Several reasons for mine.

Round 0 is a huge one, needs to outscore those around him by ~60 points over the first month to make up for it.

Durability record is dreadful, that "tailed off" was probably because he was playing hurt but he averaged 102 over his last 8 games and missed 2 games. He plays hurt a lot so the raw games missed number is deceiving but durability has consistently been a huge problem for him. He's managed a full season twice and I'm not sure he's ever managed a healthy full season.

New coach is a factor, Sydney never did what is obvious under Horse, hence it taking the best part of a decade for Heeney or Mills to get a shot in the midfield, will Cox continue to buck convention and forsake the midfield or will he go with common sense? I'd have more confidence if he was coming from outside the club rather than having years under Horse. I can only hope he's going to do it differently and how the sides that win flags do it but it's a big ask. Heeney is a genuinely great forward and that's always a worry.

Mills back could also impact him. Gulden really needs to be playing midfield as well. Outside pushing Warner out because he's leaving, which makes us a worse side, there's not really room to fit them all in easily and Heeney is by far the best of all of them at another position, admittedly Gulden is a great wing and Mills a great HB as well but Heeney's role is much harder to fill and the gap between replacement and him as a forward is far more impactful than those other two easier filled and much lower impact positions.

Basically there's a lot of unknowns on a guy with poor durability and a very high asking price with a bye that means he needs to be 10+ points a week better than all the alternatives which given some of those alternatives is a huge ask. He could well start like last year at the 140 range and if he actually stayed fit all season he is capable of that 130+ region but I'd say both of those outcomes are on the unrealistic end of expectations.

 

[Russty_]

Several reasons for mine.

Round 0 is a huge one, needs to outscore those around him by ~60 points over the first month to make up for it.

Durability record is dreadful, that "tailed off" was probably because he was playing hurt but he averaged 102 over his last 8 games and missed 2 games. He plays hurt a lot so the raw games missed number is deceiving but durability has consistently been a huge problem for him. He's managed a full season twice and I'm not sure he's ever managed a healthy full season.

New coach is a factor, Sydney never did what is obvious under Horse, hence it taking the best part of a decade for Heeney or Mills to get a shot in the midfield, will Cox continue to buck convention and forsake the midfield or will he go with common sense? I'd have more confidence if he was coming from outside the club rather than having years under Horse. I can only hope he's going to do it differently and how the sides that win flags do it but it's a big ask. Heeney is a genuinely great forward and that's always a worry.

Mills back could also impact him. Gulden really needs to be playing midfield as well. Outside pushing Warner out because he's leaving, which makes us a worse side, there's not really room to fit them all in easily and Heeney is by far the best of all of them at another position, admittedly Gulden is a great wing and Mills a great HB as well but Heeney's role is much harder to fill and the gap between replacement and him as a forward is far more impactful than those other two easier filled and much lower impact positions.

Basically there's a lot of unknowns on a guy with poor durability and a very high asking price with a bye that means he needs to be 10+ points a week better than all the alternatives which given some of those alternatives is a huge ask. He could well start like last year at the 140 range and if he actually stayed fit all season he is capable of that 130+ region but I'd say both of those outcomes are on the unrealistic end of expectations.

Good enough reasons for me, Cox could put him in the back pocket for all we know.

 

[Under The Dome]

View attachment 83195

There could be another small defender with Hardwick training forward again. Frost has the pace to play on smalls though.

 

[NDD]

And speaking of May I am sure I saw a report that he was in trouble again with a scuffle over the Xmas break. Seems to find trouble that guy.

fake news was in the same bar as the Tiges but a spectator rubbish report

 

[NDD]

And speaking of May I am sure I saw a report that he was in trouble again with a scuffle over the Xmas break. Seems to find trouble that guy.

rubbish report believe me not involved one bit

 

[OnTopBar]

Several reasons for mine.

Round 0 is a huge one, needs to outscore those around him by ~60 points over the first month to make up for it.

Durability record is dreadful, that "tailed off" was probably because he was playing hurt but he averaged 102 over his last 8 games and missed 2 games. He plays hurt a lot so the raw games missed number is deceiving but durability has consistently been a huge problem for him. He's managed a full season twice and I'm not sure he's ever managed a healthy full season.

New coach is a factor, Sydney never did what is obvious under Horse, hence it taking the best part of a decade for Heeney or Mills to get a shot in the midfield, will Cox continue to buck convention and forsake the midfield or will he go with common sense? I'd have more confidence if he was coming from outside the club rather than having years under Horse. I can only hope he's going to do it differently and how the sides that win flags do it but it's a big ask. Heeney is a genuinely great forward and that's always a worry.

Mills back could also impact him. Gulden really needs to be playing midfield as well. Outside pushing Warner out because he's leaving, which makes us a worse side, there's not really room to fit them all in easily and Heeney is by far the best of all of them at another position, admittedly Gulden is a great wing and Mills a great HB as well but Heeney's role is much harder to fill and the gap between replacement and him as a forward is far more impactful than those other two easier filled and much lower impact positions.

Basically there's a lot of unknowns on a guy with poor durability and a very high asking price with a bye that means he needs to be 10+ points a week better than all the alternatives which given some of those alternatives is a huge ask. He could well start like last year at the 140 range and if he actually stayed fit all season he is capable of that 130+ region but I'd say both of those outcomes are on the unrealistic end of expectations.

The biggest reason for Heeney's 3% ownership is that he's mid only, he was discounted last year as a forward, one of my best starting picks. Put up a massive average before his bye which led to him being out of reach for most from round 6.

All reports that I'm seeing is that Mills has been training with the mids all preseason so someone has to be pushed out of that rotation, my guess is that Heeney will be that guy, he's just too good as a forward option. I'd think that a 60/40 split for Heeney would be around the mark (60%mid)