Position 2025: RUCK DISCUSSION

[Herbie66]

🤔

Premium , Reidy / Boyd

Relying on Boyd actually playing , don't think I have seen any guarantee from St Kilda that he will be playing as yet

Darcy returns , Reidy goes to R3 (C donut)

Boyd goes to R2 if still playing

Possibility IF SDK gets DPP using him as R2 and then downgrading Boyd if he can strong 6-8 early games together

Maybe 😀

 

[Santoz]

🤔

Premium , Reidy / Boyd

Relying on Boyd actually playing , don't think I have seen any guarantee from St Kilda that he will be playing as yet

Darcy returns , Reidy goes to R3 (C donut)

Boyd goes to R2 if still playing

Possibility IF SDK gets DPP using him as R2 and then downgrading Boyd if he can strong 6-8 early games together

Maybe 😀

That's a lot of dominoes falling at the right time for that plan to be successful.

 

[Herbie66]

That's a lot of dominoes falling at the right time for that plan to be successful.

True

I like playing dominoes

I guess the first piece is to see if Boyd even gets named for Round 1.

Get a look at SDK in opening round to see how much rucking he indeed does.

 

[wogitalia]

Oddly, I'm finding the rucks fairly easy this year to at least narrow down.

The byes take out Meek, Witts, Grundy and Cameron. I'd say 115 is on their high end optimistic outcome for all 4 so having that as the minimum due to the bye hurts. I like Meek and Grundy but I think the 120 target is well past the optimistic mark into the unrealistic zone.

Marshall is out with major preseason injury. Role concern is very secondary to me as until I see a coach stupid enough to sideline one of the top 3 or 4 rucks in the league for a state league guy I don't believe it.

Nank I like more than I should, which is generally a reason to move on. Durability record and I think 120 is more likely his peak outcome than likely outcome. HIstory says that last year is probably the exception to the mean and that reversion towards is more likely, not dissimilar to Witts in 2022. I still really like the narrative for him though so would respect anyone who nailed this pick. His bye is also very handy.

TDK I could yet pivot but I didn't like him before all the talk of playing forward and the Curnow injury, so that hasn't helped my feeling. I just find it hard to trust a ruck that can't ruck and is useless as a forward. The ceiling is there for sure though but he's a very high risk pick.

That leaves Gawn, Xerri and English.

Xerri and English cancel each other out, so it's Gawn and one of them.

I trust Xerri more because he showed he can do it with the new ruck rules, hell he thrived under them, and he's got a style that should logically improve as his team does.

English is value though and has proven high end upside and his awful preseason last year is a good explanation for his drop.

Gawn for me is easy. He's averaged 113+ in all but one of the last 7 seasons, which is the Grundy season, he's been 120+ in 5 of those 7. He should have his midfield back this year with a bonus Rivers thrown in, a really nice addition. He's also got a bye that strategically is huge.

The only other decision beyond the Xerri/English decision for mine would be if Flynn, Boyd, Reid and Reidy are all there round 1 with confirmation of long term roles (Marshall/Darcy injury length changes for example) and then the decision of whether to go more risk comes in to play.

Definitely leaning Xerri right now, it's close enough that if English had a better bye I'd take him. Ready for a big overreaction to a preseason game as well

 

[wolfbunny]

The rookie R2/flex may be on the cards again if Crossley signs with the Dogs.

If we get both Crossley and Boyd playing round 1 alongside Marshall and English then I can see myself slotting one in at either R2 or flex.

If this was to happen with both Crossley and Boyd as more pure rucks this would likely push Marshall and English both into forward roles which they have done in the past.

Listening to a pod or 200 this year with a lack of time, but one of the podcasts mentioned Crossley wouldn’t be ready to go for Rd 1 as he wasn’t AFL level fitness yet. He was quoting a bulldogs coach. Sorry I can’t provide sourced proof so you should independently verify this and be aware.
To add I just googled that aren’t going to take him or Brew.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1269979...s-brayden-crossley-dom-brew-ahead-of-deadline

 

[Rowsus]

Listening to a pod or 200 this year with a lack of time, but one of the podcasts mentioned Crossley wouldn’t be ready to go for Rd 1 as he wasn’t AFL level fitness yet. He was quoting a bulldogs coach. Sorry I can’t provide sourced proof so you should independently verify this and be aware.
To add I just googled that aren’t going to take him or Brew.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1269979...s-brayden-crossley-dom-brew-ahead-of-deadline

I thought it was announced Crossley missed the spot at the Bulldogs?

 

[Under The Dome]

I thought it was announced Crossley missed the spot at the Bulldogs?

The word is he wasn't AFL fit coming into the season ahead and could be the factor in not taking him.

 

[donnybuang]

Oddly, I'm finding the rucks fairly easy this year to at least narrow down.

The byes take out Meek, Witts, Grundy and Cameron. I'd say 115 is on their high end optimistic outcome for all 4 so having that as the minimum due to the bye hurts. I like Meek and Grundy but I think the 120 target is well past the optimistic mark into the unrealistic zone.

Marshall is out with major preseason injury. Role concern is very secondary to me as until I see a coach stupid enough to sideline one of the top 3 or 4 rucks in the league for a state league guy I don't believe it.

Nank I like more than I should, which is generally a reason to move on. Durability record and I think 120 is more likely his peak outcome than likely outcome. HIstory says that last year is probably the exception to the mean and that reversion towards is more likely, not dissimilar to Witts in 2022. I still really like the narrative for him though so would respect anyone who nailed this pick. His bye is also very handy.

TDK I could yet pivot but I didn't like him before all the talk of playing forward and the Curnow injury, so that hasn't helped my feeling. I just find it hard to trust a ruck that can't ruck and is useless as a forward. The ceiling is there for sure though but he's a very high risk pick.

That leaves Gawn, Xerri and English.

Xerri and English cancel each other out, so it's Gawn and one of them.

I trust Xerri more because he showed he can do it with the new ruck rules, hell he thrived under them, and he's got a style that should logically improve as his team does.

English is value though and has proven high end upside and his awful preseason last year is a good explanation for his drop.

Gawn for me is easy. He's averaged 113+ in all but one of the last 7 seasons, which is the Grundy season, he's been 120+ in 5 of those 7. He should have his midfield back this year with a bonus Rivers thrown in, a really nice addition. He's also got a bye that strategically is huge.

The only other decision beyond the Xerri/English decision for mine would be if Flynn, Boyd, Reid and Reidy are all there round 1 with confirmation of long term roles (Marshall/Darcy injury length changes for example) and then the decision of whether to go more risk comes in to play.

Definitely leaning Xerri right now, it's close enough that if English had a better bye I'd take him. Ready for a big overreaction to a preseason game as well

Do you think there's a chance Xerri regresses as his team improves? He scores a lot from contested possessions, if the north midfield fires, the ball will be in the mids hands more than his. Add to that, most of his monster scores were in nothing matches at the end of the season when the bottom 6 is in holiday mode already and I'm not seeing him quite so confidently.

 

[Erek22]

.

Starting to think about giving in to the Gorn?

 

[Manikato1]

Do you think there's a chance Xerri regresses as his team improves? He scores a lot from contested possessions, if the north midfield fires, the ball will be in the mids hands more than his. Add to that, most of his monster scores were in nothing matches at the end of the season when the bottom 6 is in holiday mode already and I'm not seeing him quite so confidently.

Yes IMO he could regress. However he still might be a top 2 ruck, so do you take that and just accept the cash drop.

 

[Singapore Flyers]

I

Yes IMO he could regress. However he still might be a top 2 ruck, so do you take that and just accept the cash drop.

I think in the world of more limited trades there was a solid argument to over pay for someone knowing they were top of their line. With the increased trades we are perhaps seeing more of the approach prevalent in AFL fantasy where we start with value starting picks and buy the ultra premiums later when their price drops. In that case almost everyone is a stepping stone. From memory I think last years winner only had 5 of his starting selections still in his side at the end. It’s starting to make the philosophy of a “keeper “ a little obsolete.
Personally I think I will head in that direction this year, which is a departure from my previous approach. But I still respect the logic of starting a top of line player even if over paying. Time will tell what works.

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

This is the line I'm most flummoxed by.

 

[Herbie66]

another possible domino piece

Nick Bryan
$305,200

Last season 81 , 61 (subbed off) , 64 , 85 (subbed off) , 63

 

[donnybuang]

Any reason why Briggs dropped off so badly last season? Injuries etc

 

[Under The Dome]

Any reason why Briggs dropped off so badly last season? Injuries etc

He had a shoulder injury last season and had to play with it strapped.

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

Briggs came back preseason 2024 physically unprepared, from what I've heard he's in fantastic shape for this year compared to last. Did a lot of work on himself in the off season.

 

[OnTopBar]

I

I think in the world of more limited trades there was a solid argument to over pay for someone knowing they were top of their line. With the increased trades we are perhaps seeing more of the approach prevalent in AFL fantasy where we start with value starting picks and buy the ultra premiums later when their price drops. In that case almost everyone is a stepping stone. From memory I think last years winner only had 5 of his starting selections still in his side at the end. It’s starting to make the philosophy of a “keeper “ a little obsolete.
Personally I think I will head in that direction this year, which is a departure from my previous approach. But I still respect the logic of starting a top of line player even if over paying. Time will tell what works.

It's somewhat true that increased trades lends itself to a more AFL Fantasy type strategy, but remember that we'll have 2-3 trades less this year because of the Flex position, so upgrading to 23 premiums rather than 22, yes, I know a lot of coaches aimed for the 23rd premo, but I think most wouldn't have.

Just having a bit of a squiz at last years winning team and there's only 2 top priced premiums that he held all year, Bont, who he only captained twice and could have been grabbed for $110k less in round 8 off the back of one poor score and Green who he captained once and an argument could be made for selling him after the ankle injury.

The other three he held were value picks in Flanders, Clark and Young. I daresay he would have held Max and Sheezel all year as well if they hadn't been injured, both were value picks too.

He also brought in Heeney in round 2, Xerri and Martin in round 3 who were all held for the year, again, all value picks at the time. He kept stabbing away at value through the upgrade season nailing a few of those picks before the main byes. From round 5, Miller (fail), Daicos (win), Walsh (middling), Dawson (fail), Sinclair (win), Oliver (fail), Zorko (win), unlucky with Rankine who he brought in the game before he was injured. Four of those eight held for the rest of the year.

There were a few stepping stone style plays from Fisher, D'Ambrosio, Powell, Williams, Bonner and the like, but there was also a recognition of failures (Oliver, Steele & Miller) that were corrected along with upgrades over the main byes that set his team up for the last part of the season.

 

[Manikato1]

This is the line I'm most flummoxed by.

I like it. Word of the day and not used anywhere near enough. Can see it becoming trendy with the younguns. As in - "Oh dude, I got so moxed today." Gen zeders can substitute the latest for "dude" as I am clearly showing my age.

 

[Darkie]

I

I think in the world of more limited trades there was a solid argument to over pay for someone knowing they were top of their line. With the increased trades we are perhaps seeing more of the approach prevalent in AFL fantasy where we start with value starting picks and buy the ultra premiums later when their price drops. In that case almost everyone is a stepping stone. From memory I think last years winner only had 5 of his starting selections still in his side at the end. It’s starting to make the philosophy of a “keeper “ a little obsolete.
Personally I think I will head in that direction this year, which is a departure from my previous approach. But I still respect the logic of starting a top of line player even if over paying. Time will tell what works.

I have been having almost identical thoughts.

I haven’t played AFL Fantasy for years, but did think that it would be very interesting to get perspectives from those who do:

How do you approach AF differently to the standard SC playbook from 3-5 years ago?

 

[Singapore Flyers]

I have been having almost identical thoughts.

I haven’t played AFL Fantasy for years, but did think that it would be very interesting to get perspectives from those who do:

How do you approach AF differently to the standard SC playbook from 3-5 years ago?

The key thing with AFL fantasy is the focus on value selections. At a premium level, a 5-10 pt expected improvement would be a minimum before you picked them. The higher mid price would need a minimum of 20 and a lower mid pricer 30. the priced at versus expected output is key. For SC we often look more at whether the mid pricer can become a keeper. Not so much for fantasy.
Starting teams have less rookies on field. This year the discussion is whether it should be 3, 4 or 5.
Short term price gains are enough for a selection. Bonner was a good selection for Fantasy last year. Cerra is a real option this year.
With prices moving after one game, a 2-3 week window might be enough.
Interestingly, rucks are causing the same dilemma for AFL Fantasy. There is a strong focus on Xerris first 6 games as a reason not to start him. But for SC we tend to think about the whole season.
Knowing that you have trades every week means you can have many luxury trades in the last 6-8 weeks. So, again, you are not as focused on the season as a whole with starting selections. This also gives the room for a few riskier injury prone selections. Day seems more viable in Fantasy than SC.
SC is still not fully in the AFL Fantasy strategy space, but it feels like it is getting closer. I think we can take some of the thinking from Fantasy to SC. I am going to try to incorporate more of it into my SC year to see.