Analysis Cam Pedersen

[Impromptu]

Cam Pederson of Melbourne could be a surprise packet in SuperCoach 2013. Now at Melbourne, could Pederson be a viable SuperCoach pick?

Name - Cam Pedersen (MEL)
Position - RUC / DEF
Price - $278,200
Average - 52.0(2), 84.1(14)
Draw - PTA, ESS, WCE, GWS, BRL, CAR, GCS, RIC, FRE, HAW, COL, BYE, STK

Cam Pedersen is obviously not a Brand Name player and most people would have only heard of Pedersen when they picked or considered picking him in SuperCoach 2011 due to his rookie price.

Pedersen averaged a very respectable 84.1 in 2011, but the problem with Pedersen is he played for North Melbourne and competed against Hamish McIntosh, Todd Goldstein and Drew Petrie.

After not being injured in 2012 and still only playing 2 games with an average of 52.0, why would Pedersen be a serious consideration in SuperCoach 2013?

Well, first of all Pedersen has moved to Melbourne which means in theory less competition in the tall timber section and secondly, Cam Pedersen won the Werribee Best and Fairest in 2012. Interesting, Pedersen beat J.J. Liston Trophy winner Ben Ross, which is awarded to the best player in the VFL. This would be like Brent Stanton winning the Essendon Best and Fairest in 2012 (which Stanton didn't), but Tim Watson winning the Brownlow medal! Go Stanton! I'm emphasing that Pedersen beat Ross in Werribee best and fairest as it means that Pedersen was more consistent than Ross in terms of all his games, but didn't win the Liston Trophy due to a different voting system.

REASONS FOR CAM PEDERSEN

Pedersen's average of 84.1 in 2011 clearly shows potential and that includes a 22 (not sub effected). Pedersen also has a decent ceiling scoring 114 (WCE), 112 (ESS), 110(WBD) and 137(FRE) in his rookie year.

Furthermore, if Pedersen didn't play in 2012 due to injuries, it would be a concern, but instead he won the Werribee Best and Fairest, which means Pedersen is in good form.

Also, Pedersen's move to Melbourne will likely give him more opportunities due to having less competition in the 'Talls' division. Pedersen being categorised as a Ruck and Defender also gives flexibility in your SuperCoach team.

Melbourne also has a decent draw is also a good reason to pick Pedersen as he can play in the Forward, Defence or in the Ruck.

REASONS AGAINST CAM PEDERSEN

While joining a new team at Melbourne is likely to give Pedersen more opportunities, we can never know. Some people may argue that Pedersen is borderline in Melbourne's best 21/22. Others like myself believe that he will be easily in Melbourne's best 21/22.

Overall, I think Pedersen's numbers in 2011, his relatively cheap price and the fact that Pedersen is in good form by winning Werribee's Best and Fairest in 2012 is a good sign. I just think Pedersen's price and potential is too good to not seriously consider. My issue it not whether to select Pedersen, but rather where to play Pedersen, ie Ruck or Defender.

Apologies for anyone thinking they found this Diamond in the Sky (Rihanna) and was planning to keep it a secret ; naturally this Diamond is from a SuperCoach point of view. Shine Bright Like a Diamond!

Verdict: LIKELY(2)

I just realised Rowsus mentioned Cam Pedersen in the Defender's thread for a different reasons, but note:

I think Pedersen has a chance of being used as a good, value for money, stepping stone in Def in 2013. Having said that, don't count on him spending a lot of time in the Ruck. I know nothing of his leaping ability, but unless it is one of the best in the league, he just can't play there for any amount of time. At 193cm Melbourne has enough troubles to deal with without adding losing 80% of Ruck contests. The new rules would seem to favour the Nicnats of the world. Tall AND can leap. Pedersen isn't tall enough, don't know if he can leap.

 

[Rowsus]

I'm not sure what to do with Pedersen.
He's been in and out of my team 4 times. One of the problems is, there is no link between him and another Ruck/Def. In my mind you lose around 75% of the DPP advantage, if you have to use a trade to take advantage of the DPP status.
The other problem is, I'm guessing he is being lined up for a CHB role. Not a traditionally strong scoring position in SC, especially in lower teams.
At one point I had both Pedersen and Bock, but right now I have neither. I am in little doubt both will be in and out of my team a few more times before the ball bounces in late March.

 

[Impromptu]

I'm not sure what to do with Pedersen.
He's been in and out of my team 4 times. One of the problems is, there is no link between him and another Ruck/Def. In my mind you lose around 75% of the DPP advantage, if you have to use a trade to take advantage of the DPP status.
The other problem is, I'm guessing he is being lined up for a CHB role. Not a traditionally strong scoring position in SC, especially in lower teams.
At one point I had both Pedersen and Bock, but right now I have neither. I am in little doubt both will be in and out of my team a few more times before the ball bounces in late March.

Agree and Pedersen is at that awful price of high $200Ks and low $300Ks. However, Pedersen's 2012 form with the fact he has moved to Melbourne (ie more opportunity in theory) makes him very enticing.

 

[I_am_aweSAM]

I'm not sure what to do with Pedersen.
He's been in and out of my team 4 times. One of the problems is, there is no link between him and another Ruck/Def. In my mind you lose around 75% of the DPP advantage, if you have to use a trade to take advantage of the DPP status.
The other problem is, I'm guessing he is being lined up for a CHB role. Not a traditionally strong scoring position in SC, especially in lower teams.
At one point I had both Pedersen and Bock, but right now I have neither. I am in little doubt both will be in and out of my team a few more times before the ball bounces in late March.

From memory, most of his big scores were as a rebounding CHB so that could be a good sign. I could just be making up rubbish but I certainly remember his scores when he played defense were way different to any other position but can't quite be positive which way it went.

 

[Impromptu]

From memory, most of his big scores were as a rebounding CHB so that could be a good sign. I could just be making up rubbish but I certainly remember his scores when he played defense were way different to any other position but can't quite be positive which way it went.

My memory isn't good (as I didn't have Pederson), but I think you are correct.

I vaguely recall Pederson's good scores were playing running Rucks or CHB, but correct me if I'm wrong North supporters

 

[mpollock]

Can't justify that money on a guy who i think is a 60% chance of getting a game and a 50% chance of playing a role he will score well in ...
Bock is a lock if fit for a similar price and is 100% chance of getting a game and has a history of scoring well when fit.

Otherwise a rookie seems the best option ...

 

[Epidemick]

Nice call with the bock comparison. Like you Rowsus Peterson is in and out of my side twice a week ATM. I keep looking at melb ruck stocks and thinking Spencer will not make it. Also Jamar? Jamar had a poor year last year and the new ruck rules are not in his favour. I know Jamar is not yet 30 but I wonder if he can keep Pederson out of the no 1 ruck spot.

 

[Impromptu]

Nice call with the bock comparison. Like you Rowsus Peterson is in and out of my side twice a week ATM. I keep looking at melb ruck stocks and thinking Spencer will not make it. Also Jamar? Jamar had a poor year last year and the new ruck rules are not in his favour. I know Jamar is not yet 30 but I wonder if he can keep Pederson out of the no 1 ruck spot.

Just remember that while Pedersen is categorised as a Ruck in SuperCoach, so long as Pedersen gets a game even at CHB, I'll likely have him on board. We'll know more with the NAB cup, but I don't think Pedersen will be playing as first Ruck, but rather as CHB or CHF rotating in the Ruck as a 2nd Ruck.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Hey all. I'm a massive Dees fan so if you ever have any questions in regards to the Dees just swing them my way.

In regards to Pedersen, he arrived to the club out of shape but after a gruelling summer under the guidance of Dave Misson he is now training very strongly and has impressed his team mates.

He has been training with the forward group and that is where I would imagine he will spend most of his time this year, especially while Mitch Clark is out of the side (which could be some time yet).

He will spend some time in the ruck as a pinch hitter but the main ruck duties will be given to Jamar or Spencer. Spencer has been one of the most impressive guys at training this summer and is suprisingly very quick for a big man. Could be a breakout year for him.

I expect Pedersen will be named in the Dees round 1 side at CHF.

Hope this info helps when deciding whether to have Cam in your side.

 

[Impromptu]

Hey all. I'm a massive Dees fan so if you ever have any questions in regards to the Dees just swing them my way.

In regards to Pedersen, he arrived to the club out of shape but after a gruelling summer under the guidance of Dave Misson he is now training very strongly and has impressed his team mates.

He has been training with the forward group and that is where I would imagine he will spend most of his time this year, especially while Mitch Clark is out of the side (which could be some time yet).

He will spend some time in the ruck as a pinch hitter but the main ruck duties will be given to Jamar or Spencer. Spencer has been one of the most impressive guys at training this summer and is suprisingly very quick for a big man. Could be a breakout year for him.

I expect Pedersen will be named in the Dees round 1 side at CHF.

Hope this info helps when deciding whether to have Cam in your side.

Thanks Ben, yes it helps a lot.

I think Pedersen will be played around the ground, ie CHF then CHB then CHF then RUC etc. So long as he is in the side round 1, I'm confident he'll do okay. The guy was pretty much just as consistent and good as the Liston medalist (like I said different scoring system).

 

[FBDonkey]

Interesting, Pedersen beat J.J. Liston Trophy winner Ben Ross, which is awarded to the best player in the VFL. This would be like Brent Stanton winning the Essendon Best and Fairest in 2012 (which Stanton didn't), but Tim Watson winning the Brownlow medal! Go Stanton!

I reckon that might be a slightly different situation
If only Tim won a brownlow!

With so many decent rookie options up back and high scoring ruck options I think it will be really difficult to fit Pederson into my team. I would much rather have heard that he was playing a defensive role than up forward given his skill set. His price is really awkward and he would basically need to turn into a keeper.

 

[Nk29]

Great article Jay. Unlikely to be able to fit Pedersen, though I have no doubt he will make quite a bit of cash. I think Byrnes is the only midpricer I'm going to jump on.

Just on a side note regarding the Liston Medal. It seems that players who poll well in the Liston Medal don't do so well in their clubs best and fairest. You've mentioned Ben Ross, but I also know that George Horlin-Smith came in 5th for the Liston, but didn't even make the top 10 for the VFL cats best and fairest.

 

[IDIG]

Somewhere between watch and likely for me. Between he and Bock but if Bock is playing forward like most believe he will, I'd prefer Pedersen assuming he does some roaming/pinch hit rucking. Even as a forward I don't hate him while Clark is out because he's capable of scoring well and Melbourne do have a decent draw. Him winning the B&F is quite significant imo.. especially for a young player it would do wonders for his confidence and belief in himself.

 

[Rowsus]

I reckon that might be a slightly different situation
If only Tim won a brownlow!

LOL, nice pick up, and welcome aboard FBDonkey.
If you were 90% sure Pedersen will play every game AND average 85/game you'd probably be happy to carry him to the byes, and upgrade him then. I'm confident he'll play most games, I'm just not as confident as I need to be about the 85/game bit. I still think his Rucking ability is being over emphasised, as he is reportedly only 193cm, when he'll be up against 200cm+ guys that can leap. That coupled with his near useless DPP status means somewhere in the back of my mind he is being overrated or over touted.
Having a DPP with no corresponding link, is like being the only one in the world with a telephone. You just can't use it as it should be used!

 

[Courtesans]

LOL, nice pick up, and welcome aboard FBDonkey.
Having a DPP with no corresponding link, is like being the only one in the world with a telephone. You just can't use it as it should be used!

Every year I hear the announcement 'This year DPP doesn't matter'. to make myself reasonably clear..bull****, you bet it will matter, in ways that are so often unforseen.

 

[IDIG]

Being able to trade around the DPP without the link has definitely helped or reduced the need for pure DPP linkage but in my opinion the super 18s is the main thing that's made it less important. If you're focusing on the floating donut strategy and really looking to take advantage of it then the link will be more important,

 

[Rowsus]

Every year I hear the announcement 'This year DPP doesn't matter'. to make myself reasonably clear..bull****, you bet it will matter, in ways that are so often unforseen.

Totally agree DPP's are ridiculously important. But if you have to use a trade to use them, as you do with Pedersen, then they REALLY diminish in value. I think Pedersens DPP is worth about only 25% of other players, whose can be used without the use of a trade.

 

[Impromptu]

i reckon that might be a slightly different situation
if only tim won a brownlow!

lol

 

[whateverittakes]

Thanks for your article on Pedersen. I have been thinking the same way and will most likely have him in my backline and swing him into the ruck if I need help there. He is too cheap to pass up with his scoring potential.

 

[Philzsay]

While we are on Pedersen what on earth were visual sports thinking by making him a ruck????? (Ok D/R but still...)

I mean he has only had 33 hit outs in 15 games, 14 of which were in his debut. So since his debut 19 hitouts in 14 games. It like the as if whoever made the position only ever saw the kid play on debut!